Marketplace Morning Report — "Where's the AI productivity jump?"

Episode Date: February 18, 2026
Host: David Brancaccio

Overview

This episode of Marketplace Morning Report, hosted by David Brancaccio, explores whether artificial intelligence (AI), despite its rapid evolution, is truly boosting productivity in the workplace. Drawing on a new study of nearly 6,000 companies and insights from economists and industry voices, the episode investigates the gap between expectations and current realities for AI-driven productivity. The episode also briefly touches on shifting student enrollment in technology fields and provides a snapshot of economic conditions impacting the construction industry.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Are We Seeing an AI Productivity Boom Yet? (00:56–02:31)

• Corporate Feedback on AI:
  • Marketplace reports on a National Bureau of Economic Research study surveying ~6,000 executives about AI’s impact.
  • Key Finding: “80% of the time the answer was that neither of those things [productivity and employment] seem to have changed much yet.” (Daniel Ackerman, 01:24)
• Expectations for the Future:
  • The researchers note that while effects are limited so far, corporate leaders expect bigger impacts over the next three years.
  • Quote: “The answer is very much yet, because they're expecting a bigger effect over the next three years than over the past three years.” (Gregory Thwaites, University of Nottingham, 01:37)
• Anecdotal Advances in AI Tools:
  • Lindsay Raymond, MIT economist, describes a recent leap in AI coding capabilities:
    • Quote: “There was like this dramatic shift kind of over the holidays.” (01:50)
    • She notes personal productivity gains as a result: “At least I feel like I’m getting more productive.” (02:04)
• AI Shaping Business Decisions Beyond the Hype:
  • Even if mass productivity hasn’t spiked, AI’s promise is shifting company staffing strategies.
    • Quote: “They are probably anticipating there will be impacts of AI on productivity and thus in anticipation may slow down their hiring.” (Lindsay Raymond, 02:14)
  • Summary: “For most companies today, AI may be reshaping expectations faster than it's reshaping their actual productivity.” (Daniel Ackerman, 02:21)

2. AI’s Influence on Student Choices in Tech Education (02:31–03:38)

• Drop in Tech Enrollments:
  • Recent data reveals that student enrollment in computer and information science programs declined last fall — a first since the early pandemic days.
  • The decline is notable both at undergraduate and graduate levels.
• Nuanced Enrollment Patterns:
  • Carrie George, Computer Research Association, breaks down which tech areas are hit harder:
    • Quote:
      “We see that some areas such as computer science, software engineering, and information systems see lower enrollments, where there are other sub disciplines, namely computer engineering, data science, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence that are seeing stability and in some cases a lot of growth in their enrollment as well.” (Carrie George, 03:00)
  • Students Responding to Market Shifts:
    • Quote:
      “Students are very aware of the job market and aware of these forces with AI and the labor market, and they're trying to make choices that are going to best prepare them for life after graduation.” (03:20)

3. Construction Industry Pulse: Market Uncertainty & Tariffs (05:44–08:19)

• Business Slowdown & Volatility:
  • Maurice Roming, O'Neill Construction Group, describes the market as “a lot slower” with growing volatility.
    • Quote:
      “Some markets are just really, really slow and not going at all. Some are picking up and then slowing down, but we've definitely seen a slowdown.” (Maurice Roming, 06:12)
• Causes of Slowdown:
  • Cites uncertainty from interest rates and material supply, compounded by unpredictable tariff policies.
    • Quote:
      “It doesn't seem like we have a good feeling on which way the market's going to go. So there's a lot of pullback in the market.” (06:28)
  • Tariffs make project pricing and planning difficult due to fluctuating materials costs, especially for imported metals:
    • Quote:
      “It's hard to let the customer know what the cost of the project will be over a long period of time... we can't give the customer a solid answer on pricing on certain projects.” (06:50)
• Global Supply Chains & Tech Integration:
  • Modern “smart buildings” require integrated, often imported products (steel, copper, lighting equipment), making them especially sensitive to tariffs and global market dynamics.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “80% of the time the answer was that neither of those things seem to have changed much yet.” – Daniel Ackerman, on AI’s productivity and employment effects (01:24)
• “There was like this dramatic shift kind of over the holidays.” – Lindsay Raymond, MIT economist, on AI coding tools (01:50)
• “Students are very aware of the job market and aware of these forces with AI and the labor market, and they're trying to make choices that are going to best prepare them for life after graduation.” – Carrie George, Computer Research Association (03:20)
• “It's a lot slower. There's a little bit more volatility... we've definitely seen a slowdown.” – Maurice Roming, O'Neill Construction Group (06:12)
• “We need some sort of certainty to be able to hold our prices... it's a really hard thing to move for any size firm right now because we can't give the customer a solid answer on pricing on certain projects.” – Maurice Roming (06:50)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:56–02:31: The reality vs. hype of AI’s productivity effects in businesses
• 02:31–03:38: Tech education enrollments shift as students respond to perceived impacts of AI on the job market
• 05:44–08:19: The economic pulse in construction, focusing on tariffs, market uncertainty, and tech-driven complexity

Conclusion

This episode spotlights a complex landscape where AI is influencing perception, hiring, and education at a faster pace than it is delivering measurable productivity gains. The construction sector exemplifies broader economic uncertainties, highlighting how global and policy factors still shape day-to-day business challenges despite the promise of new technologies.

For deeper dives into these discussions and more, listen to the full episode or visit marketplace.org for related features.