Where's the AI productivity jump?

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report — "Where's the AI productivity jump?"

Episode Date: February 18, 2026
Host: David Brancaccio

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Overview

This episode of Marketplace Morning Report, hosted by David Brancaccio, explores whether artificial intelligence (AI), despite its rapid evolution, is truly boosting productivity in the workplace. Drawing on a new study of nearly 6,000 companies and insights from economists and industry voices, the episode investigates the gap between expectations and current realities for AI-driven productivity. The episode also briefly touches on shifting student enrollment in technology fields and provides a snapshot of economic conditions impacting the construction industry.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Are We Seeing an AI Productivity Boom Yet? (00:56–02:31)

• Corporate Feedback on AI:
  • Marketplace reports on a National Bureau of Economic Research study surveying ~6,000 executives about AI’s impact.
  • Key Finding: “80% of the time the answer was that neither of those things [productivity and employment] seem to have changed much yet.” (Daniel Ackerman, 01:24)
• Expectations for the Future:
  • The researchers note that while effects are limited so far, corporate leaders expect bigger impacts over the next three years.
  • Quote: “The answer is very much yet, because they're expecting a bigger effect over the next three years than over the past three years.” (Gregory Thwaites, University of Nottingham, 01:37)
• Anecdotal Advances in AI Tools:
  • Lindsay Raymond, MIT economist, describes a recent leap in AI coding capabilities:
    • Quote: “There was like this dramatic shift kind of over the holidays.” (01:50)
    • She notes personal productivity gains as a result: “At least I feel like I’m getting more productive.” (02:04)
• AI Shaping Business Decisions Beyond the Hype:
  • Even if mass productivity hasn’t spiked, AI’s promise is shifting company staffing strategies.
    • Quote: “They are probably anticipating there will be impacts of AI on productivity and thus in anticipation may slow down their hiring.” (Lindsay Raymond, 02:14)
  • Summary: “For most companies today, AI may be reshaping expectations faster than it's reshaping their actual productivity.” (Daniel Ackerman, 02:21)

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2. AI’s Influence on Student Choices in Tech Education (02:31–03:38)

• Drop in Tech Enrollments:
  • Recent data reveals that student enrollment in computer and information science programs declined last fall — a first since the early pandemic days.
  • The decline is notable both at undergraduate and graduate levels.
• Nuanced Enrollment Patterns:
  • Carrie George, Computer Research Association, breaks down which tech areas are hit harder:
    • Quote:
      “We see that some areas such as computer science, software engineering, and information systems see lower enrollments, where there are other sub disciplines, namely computer engineering, data science, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence that are seeing stability and in some cases a lot of growth in their enrollment as well.” (Carrie George, 03:00)
  • Students Responding to Market Shifts:
    • Quote:
      “Students are very aware of the job market and aware of these forces with AI and the labor market, and they're trying to make choices that are going to best prepare them for life after graduation.” (03:20)

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3. Construction Industry Pulse: Market Uncertainty & Tariffs (05:44–08:19)

• Business Slowdown & Volatility:
  • Maurice Roming, O'Neill Construction Group, describes the market as “a lot slower” with growing volatility.
    • Quote:
      “Some markets are just really, really slow and not going at all. Some are picking up and then slowing down, but we've definitely seen a slowdown.” (Maurice Roming, 06:12)
• Causes of Slowdown:
  • Cites uncertainty from interest rates and material supply, compounded by unpredictable tariff policies.
    • Quote:
      “It doesn't seem like we have a good feeling on which way the market's going to go. So there's a lot of pullback in the market.” (06:28)
  • Tariffs make project pricing and planning difficult due to fluctuating materials costs, especially for imported metals:
    • Quote:
      “It's hard to let the customer know what the cost of the project will be over a long period of time... we can't give the customer a solid answer on pricing on certain projects.” (06:50)
• Global Supply Chains & Tech Integration:
  • Modern “smart buildings” require integrated, often imported products (steel, copper, lighting equipment), making them especially sensitive to tariffs and global market dynamics.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “80% of the time the answer was that neither of those things seem to have changed much yet.” – Daniel Ackerman, on AI’s productivity and employment effects (01:24)
• “There was like this dramatic shift kind of over the holidays.” – Lindsay Raymond, MIT economist, on AI coding tools (01:50)
• “Students are very aware of the job market and aware of these forces with AI and the labor market, and they're trying to make choices that are going to best prepare them for life after graduation.” – Carrie George, Computer Research Association (03:20)
• “It's a lot slower. There's a little bit more volatility... we've definitely seen a slowdown.” – Maurice Roming, O'Neill Construction Group (06:12)
• “We need some sort of certainty to be able to hold our prices... it's a really hard thing to move for any size firm right now because we can't give the customer a solid answer on pricing on certain projects.” – Maurice Roming (06:50)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:56–02:31: The reality vs. hype of AI’s productivity effects in businesses
• 02:31–03:38: Tech education enrollments shift as students respond to perceived impacts of AI on the job market
• 05:44–08:19: The economic pulse in construction, focusing on tariffs, market uncertainty, and tech-driven complexity

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Conclusion

This episode spotlights a complex landscape where AI is influencing perception, hiring, and education at a faster pace than it is delivering measurable productivity gains. The construction sector exemplifies broader economic uncertainties, highlighting how global and policy factors still shape day-to-day business challenges despite the promise of new technologies.

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For deeper dives into these discussions and more, listen to the full episode or visit marketplace.org for related features.

Transcript

[David Brancaccio]

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[David Brancaccio]

Arty. Arty as in artificial intelligence? I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. Are we getting more done using all this new AI? Corporate leaders say not especially. That's according to a new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Where's the productivity jump?

[Daniel Ackerman]

Daniel Ackerman reports Researchers asked executives at nearly 6,000 companies how generative AI has affected their productivity and employment, and 80% of the time the answer was that neither of those things seem to have changed much yet. Gregory Thwaites is an economist at the University of Nottingham who co authored the study. But the answer is very much yet, because they're expecting a bigger effect over the next three years than over the past three years. That expectation could be because the technology is improving so quickly, something Lindsay Raymond, an economist at mit, says she sees firsthand.

[Lindsay Raymond]

So I write a lot of code, do a lot of analysis and just the coding agent capability. There was like this dramatic shift kind of over the holidays.

[Daniel Ackerman]

The holidays as in December, less than two months ago at least I feel.

[Lindsay Raymond]

Like I'm getting more productive.

[Daniel Ackerman]

And even if the technology fails to live up to the hype more broadly, Raymond says the mere possibility could affect company staffing decisions.

[Lindsay Raymond]

They are probably anticipating there will be impacts of AI on productivity and thus in anticipation may slow down their hiring.

[Daniel Ackerman]

For most companies today, AI may be reshaping expectations faster than it's reshaping their actual productivity. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

There's new evidence AI is thwarting the aspirations of students who had wanted to study tech disciplines once seen as a strong bet for finding work, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research center. The number of students enrolling in computer and information science programs decreased this past fall. That's at both the graduate and undergraduate levels. It's the first drop since the first pandemic year. Our program, Marketplace Tech, spoke to Carrie George with the Computer Research Association.

[Carrie George]

We're seeing overall that declines in enrollment across computing, but that's not evenly distributed across subdisciplines. So we see that some areas such as computer science, software engineering and information systems see lower enrollments where there are other sub disciplines, namely computer engineering, data science, science, cybersecurity and artificial intelligence that are seeing stability and in some cases a lot of growth in their enrollment as well. What our department chairs are telling us is that students are very aware of the job market and aware of these forces with AI and the labor market, and they're trying to make choices that are going to best prepare them for life after graduation.

[David Brancaccio]

Marketplace Tech has that conversation via marketplace.org now now when you order Buffalo wild wings boneless wings, do you expect them to actually be chicken wings with the bone taken out? A guy in Illinois sued saying he was deceived when he learned boneless wings can be akin to chicken nuggets, but a judge has now ruled he didn't drum up enough of an argument. The judge himself used the words drum up better than legally winging it, I suppose. This Marketplace podcast is supported by Viking, committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on an elegant Viking longship with thoughtful service, destination focused dining and cultural enrichment on board and on shore. And every Viking voyage is all inclusive with no children and no casinos.

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[David Brancaccio]

Time to check the marketplace. Economic pulse views on the economy from a range of perspectives. Tariffs, strict border policy, persistently high interest rates. Maurice Romming, president of o' Neill Construction Group in Portland, Oregon, sees it all. He does subcontracting, often electrical for commercial building projects. Mr. Roming, welcome back.

[Maurice Roming]

Thank you for having me, David.

[David Brancaccio]

All right, just as a baseline here, how's it feeling to you in your line of work? Is it busier, is it quieter? What are you seeing?

[Maurice Roming]

It's a lot slower. There's a little bit more volatility. Some markets are just really, really slow and not going at all. Some. Some are picking up and then slowing down, but we've definitely seen a slowdown.

[David Brancaccio]

So what's your sense of why a little slower from your perspective?

[Maurice Roming]

It's the uncertainty in the marketplace between interest rates being able to get material. It doesn't seem like we have a good feeling on which way the market's going to go. So there's a lot of pullback in the market.

[David Brancaccio]

I mean, what uncertainty? You said interest rates. Some people point to shifting tariff policy.

[Maurice Roming]

Yeah, shift in tariff policy. Because of the way the tariff policies are kind of working, it's hard to price out projects. It's hard to let the customer know what the cost of the project will be over a long period of time. So if you think about how we look at permitting and just going through the process, we need some sort of certainty to be able to hold our prices. And so when we have those prices, price fluctuations, it's a really hard thing to move for any size firm right now because we can't give the customer a solid answer on pricing on certain projects.

[David Brancaccio]

You presumably use quite a bit of metal in the things that your people install. Some of that's gotta be steel, some of that's gotta be aluminum. All that has tariffs if it's imported.

[Maurice Roming]

Definitely between steel, metal, copper, when you start looking at lightin and just some of the equipment that we purchase, I mean, most everything has some sort of foreign product in it. And a lot of what we do because construction is so much more technical than what it used to be, we're dependent upon that stuff in order to make these integrated systems actually work collectively together. So most buildings that we build are smart buildings. So we end up with just a lot of product coming in from all over the globe.

[David Brancaccio]

Contractor Maurice Roming is president of o' Neill Construction Group out of Portland, Oregon. Thank you so much for your time.

[Maurice Roming]

Thank you, Dave, for having me.

[David Brancaccio]

Tomorrow here we delve into a disturbing development. Roaming is seeing in his line of work the cost of his workers leaving his employ because they get bullied, roming says, by random jerks they encounter who wrongly think his workers are undocumented immigrants. What he describes are not official checks by ICE or Border Patrol, but amateur bigots hassling construction workers. If you miss his account on the air tomorrow, it'll be in the podcast afterwards. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio with the Marketplace Morning Report. From APM American Public Media.

[Rima Reis]

Hey everyone, I'm Rima Reis, and this week on this Is Uncomfortable. I'm joined by my fellow podcaster Sam Sanders for a special Love Advice episode. We tackle listener questions about money and relationships, everything from secret investment accounts to parents making risky financial choices.

[Maurice Roming]

I have told people all the time, when you are experiencing an adult in your life who is acting like a child, that is the time at which you most need to be an adult.

[Rima Reis]

Listen to this Is Uncomfortable on your favorite podcast app.