Who comes next?

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "Who Comes Next?" – Detailed Summary

Release Date: June 26, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio
Duration: Approximately 10 minutes

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1. President Trump’s Criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Overview:
The episode opens with a focus on President Donald Trump's ongoing dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This tension is influencing financial markets and raising questions about the future leadership of the Fed.

Key Points:

• Trump’s Displeasure:
  President Trump has publicly expressed his frustration with Jerome Powell, advocating for immediate interest rate reductions.

  “Think he's a very stupid person.” — President Trump [01:19]

• Succession Speculation:
  Trump has narrowed down his potential successors for Powell’s position to three or four candidates, despite Powell’s term not ending until the following spring.

  “He's extremely unlikely to be renominated, so I'm not sure he feels a lot of pressure from the political rhetoric.” — Brian Rehling, Wells Fargo Investment Institute [01:39]

• Federal Reserve’s Stance:
  Jerome Powell maintains that the Fed is prepared to delay interest rate cuts, monitoring the economic impact of Trump's tariffs.

  “The Fed is in good shape to wait on an interest rate cut.” — Jerome Powell [01:47]

Impact on Markets:

• The US Dollar Index has decreased by a full percentage point following Trump’s latest remarks about Powell, reflecting investor concerns about the US economy’s potential weakening.

  “The dollar is down 10% this year.” — David Brancaccio [02:04]

• A weaker dollar could benefit US exports by making them cheaper and more competitive internationally.

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2. Rising Healthcare Costs and Republican Policy Proposals

Overview:
Healthcare spending in the United States is projected to grow significantly, driven by an aging population and escalating treatment costs. Republican lawmakers are proposing cuts to programs like Medicaid as part of broader tax and spending reforms.

Key Points:

• Healthcare Spending Projections:
  The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services estimate that healthcare costs will rise from 17% to 20% of total US economic output by 2033.

  “Health care spending is expected to outpace GDP growth in the coming years.” — Elizabeth Trovall [02:48]

• Demographic Factors:
  The retiring baby boomer generation is contributing to increased healthcare utilization and costs.

  “People will utilize more health care.” — Benjamin Uckert, Texas A&M University [03:11]

• Innovation vs. Costs:
  Advances in medical treatment are driving up costs, though they also contribute to employment and potential breakthroughs in disease treatment.

  “We’re just inventing cool new stuff that costs more money.” — David Brancaccio [03:23]
  “Growth in healthcare spending isn't necessarily a bad thing.” — Jonathan Gruber, MIT [03:25]

• Political Trade-Offs:
  Republican proposals to cut Medicaid could result in 11 million Americans losing health insurance, highlighting a significant policy trade-off between fiscal conservatism and public health.

  “The kick people off health insurance will spend less on health care and people will die.” — Elizabeth Trovall [03:46-03:50]

Implications:

• The debate underscores the tension between controlling government spending and ensuring adequate healthcare coverage for vulnerable populations.

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3. The Rise of Shadow Fleets Circumventing Sanctions

Overview:
The episode delves into the expansion of shadow fleets—illicit tanker ships primarily operated by Iran and Russia—to bypass international sanctions and continue oil trade.

Key Points:

• Growth of Shadow Fleets:
  The shadow fleet now constitutes 17% of all international tankers, a significant increase from previous years.

  “The size of the international shadow fleet has more than doubled since 2022.” — Elisabeth Braugh, Atlantic Council [06:47]

• Tactics Employed:
  Shadow vessels employ deceptive practices such as GPS spoofing, fake insurance documents, and cargo transfers to obscure their true activities and locations.

  “They spoof GPS to claim they're loading oil at an Iraqi port when they're actually in Iran.” — Elisabeth Braugh [07:02]

• Operational Risks:
  Many shadow ships are outdated and poorly maintained, increasing the risk of accidents and environmental disasters.

  “They are often old. They should really be scrapped.” — Elisabeth Braugh [07:24]
  “It's a massive accident that's waiting to happen.” — David Brancaccio [07:46]

• Challenges in Enforcement:
  Intercepting shadow fleets is complicated by international laws on freedom of navigation and the potential for significant political backlash.

  “Most Navy’s coast guards and marine police forces around the world are not going to have an impetus to try to take on this kind of situation.” — Ian Ralby, IR Concilium [08:16]

Consequences:

• Environmental risks from oil spills and collisions pose threats to global maritime operations and coastal ecosystems.
• The persistence of shadow fleets indicates that Western sanctions have not effectively curbed the oil trade activities of sanctioned nations.

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4. Trump Mobile’s Manufacturing Revisions

Overview:
An update is provided on President Trump’s family company, which is developing a mobile phone marketed as "US Made." Initial claims of domestic manufacturing have been retracted, raising questions about the phone's true origin.

Key Points:

• Initial Claims vs. Reality:
  The Verge reported that the Trump Mobile website no longer promotes the T1 8002 phone as US manufactured. Instead, it now emphasizes that the phone is “designed with American values in mind,” with unspecified changes to specifications such as screen size and RAM.

  “The Made in the USA banner is gone from the Trump Mobile website.” — David Brancaccio [08:56]

• Market Implications:
  Experts previously doubted the feasibility of producing a genuinely US-manufactured smartphone, and the shift in marketing now aligns with those predictions.

Impact:

• The rebranding may affect consumer trust and the phone’s market viability, positioning it more as a politically branded product rather than a purely American-made tech device.

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5. Brief Mentions and Light-Hearted Moments

Overview:
The episode concludes with lighter segments, including promotions and humorous exchanges, providing a breather from the intense economic and political discussions.

Highlights:

• Sponsored Content:
  Brief advertisements for services like LHH and Greenlight are interspersed, focusing on talent solutions and financial safety for families.

• Humorous Interaction:
  A playful exchange between David Brancaccio and Elizabeth Trovall about subscribing to "This Old House Radio Hour" adds a personable touch to the episode.

  “I think I would get the whiskey for sure.” — Elizabeth Trovall [09:58]

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Conclusion

In this episode of the "Marketplace Morning Report," David Brancaccio navigates through significant economic and political developments. Key discussions include President Trump's criticism of Jerome Powell and its impact on the Federal Reserve and financial markets, the escalating costs of healthcare and the political implications of proposed Medicaid cuts, the growing threat of shadow fleets undermining international sanctions, and the shifting narrative around Trump Mobile's manufacturing claims. These topics collectively highlight the intricate interplay between politics, economics, and global trade, offering listeners a comprehensive overview of pressing issues shaping the current landscape.

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This summary is intended to provide a comprehensive overview of the "Marketplace Morning Report" episode titled "Who Comes Next?" and is structured to assist those who have not listened to the original podcast.

Transcript

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

This is a call to the leaders.

[David Brancaccio]

Who want to redefine their impact. Tackle our world's greatest challenges with a powerful network of global business leaders at MIT Sloan School of Management.

[Unknown]

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[David Brancaccio]

President Trump moves markets in part by calling America's central banker names. I'm David Brancaccio. In Los Angeles. A published report is moving financial markets that President Trump could announce a successor to, but not yet replace, the powerful chair of the federal reserv. Jerome Powell's term isn't over until next year. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser has more.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

President Trump has made no secret of his displeasure with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He wants the Fed to lower interest rates right away. Yesterday at a NATO press conference, he had this to say about Powell I.

[David Brancaccio]

Think he's a very stupid person.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Actually, the president added that he's narrowed his pick to replace Powell down to three or four people. Powell's term as chair ends next spring, but Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that makes it easier for Powell to resist Trump's pressure campaign.

[David Brancaccio]

Obviously, he is extremely unlikely to be renominated, so, you know, I'm not sure he feels a lot of pressure from the political rhetoric.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

In congressional testimony this week, Powell said the Fed is in good shape to wait on an interest rate cut. He wants to see how Trump's tariffs affect the economy and says they could start driving up prices this summer. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

The US Dollar index versus other currencies is down a full percentage point since the latest Trump attack on Powell. That's in part a bet the U.S. economy could get weaker. The dollar is down 10% this year. The flip side is a weaker dollar makes US Exports cheaper, easier to sell. In foreign countries, the cost of health care is ever growing, and new government estimates show it will go from 17 to 20% of total US economic output within eight years. This says Republican lawmaker deeply they want to cut health care programs like Medicaid as part of the big tax cutting and spending plan. The House version of the bill means 11 million people could lose health insurance Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval looks at why the tab for health care keeps getting bigger.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

Health care spending is expected to outpace GDP growth in the coming years, at least through 2033, according to new estimates by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. One reason why we do see the baby boomers retiring. Benjamin Uckert with Texas A and M University says as the Silver Tsunami ages.

[Elisabeth Braugh]

People will utilize more health care.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

Treatment is also getting pricier and you have to factor in the cost of health innovation, says MIT's Jonathan Gruber.

[David Brancaccio]

We're just inventing cool new stuff that costs more money.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

Gruber says growth in healthcare spending isn't necessarily a bad thing. It drives employment and can lead to new life saving cures for disease. The problem is that society is unwilling.

[David Brancaccio]

To pony up to pay those costs.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

Consider the current debate over cuts to Medicaid spending proposed by Republican lawmakers.

[David Brancaccio]

The kick people off health insurance will.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

Spend less on health care and people will die.

[David Brancaccio]

And that's a trade off that I think the US Voter needs to recognize.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

That these politicians are making one way or the other, he says. When it comes to their health, Americans will have to pay. I'm Elizabeth Trovall for Marketplace.

[Unknown]

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[David Brancaccio]

Of tanker ships used largely by Iran and Russia to sell oil on the global market to get around international sanctions is growing in size. The shadow fleet is now 17% of all international tankers, according to a report from Allianz. Reporter Daniel Ackerman has more.

[Elisabeth Braugh]

In the early 2010s, the west slapped big sanctions on Iran's energy exports, so to keep its oil revenue flowing, Iran turned to the so called shadow fleet, says Elisabeth Braugh, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. I spoke with her and other experts at a conference on the topic this week.

[Unknown]

It really began as a way for Iran to export and import because it was under so many sanctions, she says.

[Elisabeth Braugh]

Russia now also uses shadow vessels to sell its oil. The country was sanctioned for invading Ukraine in 2022, and Bra says the size of the international shadow fleet has more than doubled since then.

[Unknown]

They are essentially like a tumor on the global shipping system.

[Elisabeth Braugh]

These shadow vessels use all kinds of shadowy tactics. They spoof gps, for example, to claim they're loading oil at an Iraqi port when they're actually in Iran. They carry fake insurance documents and they transfer their cargo from one ship to another to another, just to confuse anyone watching by satellite. And Bras says these vessels aren't exactly in ship shape.

[Unknown]

They are often old. They should really be scrapped. An old vessel that is poorly maintained poses significant risks of accidents and incidents, just like an old car.

[Elisabeth Braugh]

There have already been some minor collisions and oil spills caused by Shadow fleet ships. Tomer Renan, a maritime risk analyst at Lloyds List Intelligence, fears that a major environmental disaster could be next.

[David Brancaccio]

It's a massive accident that's waiting to happen.

[Elisabeth Braugh]

And because these ships are underinsured at best, cleanup costs aren't borne by the operators of the shadow vessels, says Joshua Tallis with the center for Naval Analyses.

[David Brancaccio]

All of those costs are going to fall on the international community and most likely quite heavily off the coast of whatever country that accident actually happens on.

[Elisabeth Braugh]

And the continued growth of these risks shows that Western sanctions just haven't had their desired effect, says Ian Ralby, CEO of the maritime consultancy IR Concilium.

[Ian Ralby]

No amount of sanctions have put Russia, Iran, North Korea or anyone out of business. Iran in particular has been very successful in finding ways of using the maritime space to continue to move oil and fuel illegally.

[Elisabeth Braugh]

He says intercepting these Shadow ships isn't a great option because that would go against the principle of freedom of navigation on the high seas.

[Ian Ralby]

Most Navy's coast guards and marine police forces around the world are not going to have an impetus to try to take on this kind of situation, particularly given the extreme political blowback that would accompany any kind of interdiction.

[Elisabeth Braugh]

So for now, the Shadow fleet keeps on sailing. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace and we've.

[David Brancaccio]

Been following President Trump's family company taking orders for a mobile phone service offering a US Made smartphone. We reported on experts doubting a Made in the USA phone was possible anytime soon. Now the publication the Verge noticed the promised T1 8002 phone is no longer being touted as US manufactured. The Made in the USA banner is gone from the Trump Mobile website. Now the promise is, quote, designed with American values in mind. The phone screen is now a bit shorter and the amount of onboard RAM first listed as 12 gigs is now a mystery. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio, Marketplace Morning report from APM American Public Media.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

This Old House has been America's most trusted source for all things DIY and home improvement for decades. And now we're on the radio and on demand.

[David Brancaccio]

I think you're breaking into this wall. Regardless. I was hoping you wouldn't say that. I need to go and get some. Some whiskey.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

I think I would get the whiskey for sure. Subscribe to this Old House Radio hour from LAS Studios. Wherever you get your podcasts.