Why are retailers hiring fewer seasonal workers?

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: Why are retailers hiring fewer seasonal workers?
Date: November 19, 2025
Host: Sabri Benishour (for David Brancaccio)

---

Episode Overview

This episode of Marketplace Morning Report explores the surprising downturn in seasonal retail hiring, the uncertainties facing the retail sector ahead of the 2025 holiday season, and touches on two other key economic fronts: Nvidia’s anticipated earnings report and ongoing Federal Reserve decisions. The segment offers expert insights into why retailers like Target are shrinking their holiday workforce, and what this reflects about broader consumer trends and the state of the labor market.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Nvidia Earnings & AI Sector Jitters (00:55 – 02:21)

• Nvidia's Earnings as a Bellwether: Nvidia’s performance is critical not just for its investors, but for those betting on the overall AI boom.
  • "This industry has single handedly driven markets to new highs and Nvidia is the bellwether for all of it." (Sabri Benishour, 00:55)
• Mixed Investor Sentiment:
  • Major investors like Peter Thiel and Softbank have sold their Nvidia stakes, while Michael Burry is betting against AI stocks.
  • Bubble worries are prevalent, with investors closely watching Nvidia’s ability to keep up with demand—particularly amid new U.S. export restrictions to China.
• Catch-22 for AI Growth:
  • "If companies report strong growth, investors worry they're spending too much, while a more modest trajectory leads to fears that AI is plateauing." (Gene Munster, via Nancy Marshall Genzer, 01:21)

2. Federal Reserve Uncertainty and Labor Data Delays (02:21 – 04:17)

• Fed’s Upcoming Moves: Market is split 50/50 on whether the Federal Reserve will hold or lower interest rates at its December meeting.
  • "No one ever knows what the Fed is going to do for certain. But the market is really split on this one." (Susan Schmidt, 02:53)
• Push and Pull: Inflation vs. Employment:
  • If the Fed lowers rates, it could help the labor market; raising rates is the tool against inflation. It’s a delicate balance.
  • "That's this push and pull that the Fed is struggling with right now." (Susan Schmidt, 03:22)
• Stale Labor Data:
  • The September jobs report, delayed by over a month, provides limited value for investors, given fast recent changes in the labor market.

3. Why Retailers Are Hiring Fewer Seasonal Workers (05:28 – 08:23)

• Target’s Weak Performance & Sector-Wide Trend:
  • Target’s stock dipped after reporting a 1.5% sales drop. Unlike usual years, they aren’t announcing tens of thousands of seasonal job openings.
  • Marketplace's Savannah Peters investigates why.
• Uncertainty Drives Caution:
  • Tariffs, shaky consumer confidence, and a lack of fresh government data has retailers uncertain about holiday prospects.
  • "...all these different things have left retailers a little bit uncertain about what to do." (Sabri Benishour, 06:18)
• Lowest Seasonal Hiring in 15 Years:
  • The National Retail Federation projects under 365,000 seasonal hires—the lowest since 2010.
  • "That, for context, is the lowest figure that we've seen in the last 15 years." (Sabri Benishour, 06:36)
• Contradictory Sales Growth:
  • Stronger sales numbers may reflect inflation more than increased volume.
  • "So even though retailers are making more money, they they're not necessarily making it from more people purchasing more products." (Sucharita Kodali, 07:11)
• How Retailers Will Cope:
  • Automation, on-call workers, and squeezing more hours from permanent staff are all strategies being used.
  • "It's kind of a buyer's market. You know, they just have a lot of different solutions to fill in hours." (Alan Benson, 07:33)
  • "People who are currently employed are looking at the relatively poor job market and they're thinking, if my retailer can give me more hours than, you know, sign me up." (Alan Benson, 07:48)
• Impact on Workers & Customer Service:
  • Fewer seasonal jobs are bad for the oldest and youngest job seekers.
  • "That's everything from products not being stocked on shelves to not having a person being able to answer your questions." (Sucharita Kodali, 08:15)
  • Signs of “doing more with less” will be present throughout the season.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• AI Bubble Anxiety:
  "Some investors are worried about an AI bubble. They'll be watching today's Nvidia results for signs of trouble..."
  — Nancy Marshall Genzer (01:21)

• Retail Sector Uncertainty:
  "...all these different things have left retailers a little bit uncertain about what to do."
  — Sabri Benishour (06:18)

• Historic Low for Seasonal Jobs:
  "That, for context, is the lowest figure that we've seen in the last 15 years."
  — Sabri Benishour (06:36)

• Inflation Masks True Sales Growth:
  "So even though retailers are making more money, they're not necessarily making it from more people purchasing more products."
  — Sucharita Kodali (07:11)

• “Doing More With Less” in Stores:
  "That's everything from products not being stocked on shelves to not having a person being able to answer your questions."
  — Sucharita Kodali (08:15)

---

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Nvidia & AI Market Fears – 00:55 to 02:21
• Fed Uncertainty & Delayed Jobs Data – 02:21 to 04:17
• Retailer Hiring Pullback Explored – 05:28 to 08:23

---

Tone & Language

The episode maintains Marketplace’s brisk, economics-mined style, focusing on data, expert quotes, and practical consequences for markets, workers, and consumers. The reporting is factual but acknowledges ambiguity and concern—especially about economic uncertainty and its real-world impacts.

---

Summary Takeaway

This Marketplace Morning Report unpacks why 2025’s holiday shopping season looks so different behind the scenes: Retail giants, facing nervous consumers and unclear data, are holding back on seasonal hiring to historic lows, potentially hurting workers and degrading in-store customer experience. At the same time, investors and analysts are watching Nvidia’s performance and the Fed’s next move for clues about where the broader economy—artificial intelligence included—may be headed.

Transcript

[MultiCare Announcer]

For 140 years, MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn [e-mail] the day you need to.

[Cincinnati Insurance Announcer]

Use your insurance is rarely a good one. It's when the ceiling leaks or a storm takes out your roof and your plans. Cincinnati Insurance understands for 75 years they've shown up with expertise and personal attention that make bad days better. From protecting your home to ensuring your most valuable possessions, they're there when it matters most. Because when the unexpected happens, you deserve support. You deserve the Cincinnati insurance companies. Let us make your bad day better. Find an independent [e-mail] There is a.

[Sabri Benishour]

Whole lot riding on one company's earnings.

[Mark Matthews]

Report.

[Sabri Benishour]

From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Benishour in for David Brancaccio. Nvidia's latest earnings results are due today after markets close. Many a hope and a bet have been placed on this company and on the AI boom overall. This industry has single handedly driven markets to new highs and Nvidia is the bellwether for all of it. So investors will be watching this earnings report especially closely. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer has more.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

There's been a lot of speculation about the trajectory for Nvidia and the AI boom. Prominent investors like Peter Thiel and the Softbank Group have have sold Nvidia stock. Michael Burry, famous for shorting the housing market during the 2008 financial crisis, is now betting against AI. Some investors are worried about an AI bubble. They'll be watching today's Nvidia results for signs of trouble, looking to see if it's been able to keep up with demand and how hard it's been hit by the Trump administration's efforts to restrict computer chip exports to China. Some analysts, like Daniel Ives at Wedbush securities are still bullish. He was points to robust demand for the company's Blackwell chip. Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster says AI is caught in a Catch 22 if companies report strong growth, investors worry they're spending too much, while a more modest trajectory leads to fears that AI is plateauing. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishour]

Later today at 2:00pm Eastern we will get the notes from the Federal Reserve's last big meeting. That's the one where it decided to slightly lower the minimum interest rates in the economy. Investors are interested because they are trying to figure out what the Fed will do at its next meeting in December. Susan Schmidt is here to Talk about it. She is portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources. Good morning.

[Susan Schmidt]

Good morning.

[Sabri Benishour]

Do people even know what the Fed is going to do at its next meeting in early December? When it comes to interest rates, no.

[Susan Schmidt]

One ever knows what the Fed is going to do for certain. But the market is really split on this 1. Investors are 50, 50 whether the Fed is going to hold interest rates as is or decrease them. If they do lower them, the general consensus is they'll go down by a quarter of a percent.

[Sabri Benishour]

I guess we should say the reason for this split is because interest rates are a way to deal with two problems, inflation and employment. And it's hard to tell which one is the bigger problem.

[Susan Schmidt]

Right now we want to lower interest rates. That helps the labor market because it helps companies, therefore they're more likely to hire. But inflation is a problem. And the way you get to lowering inflation is by raising the interest rates. So that's this push and pull that the Fed is struggling with right now. What is the right rate for them to set so that they can solve both problems?

[Sabri Benishour]

We're getting the September jobs report tomorrow. We should have gotten that a month ago. Is September even helpful at this point?

[Susan Schmidt]

Not clear, because we've seen so much change in the labor market. It's a month old. So we would say it's stale data. I think that it's relevant. But is it enough to reassure investors to say, oh, the Fed will take this data and move one direction or another?

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

No.

[Susan Schmidt]

So we're still going to be waiting, I think, into next month.

[Sabri Benishour]

Susan Schmidt, portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources. Thank you, as always.

[Susan Schmidt]

Thank you.

[Grainger Announcer]

This is the story of the 1. As a custodial supervisor at a high school, he knows that during cold and flu season, germs spread fast. It's why he partners with Grainger to stay fully stocked on the products and supplies he needs, from tissues to disinfectants to floor scrubbers, all so that he can help students, staff and teachers stay healthy and focused. Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.

[MultiCare Announcer]

Kay Jeweler's early Black Friday sale is happening now. Get up to 50% off Black Friday deals and up to 40% off everything else. Don't miss this sale. Start your season with savings or only a K exclusions. Apply ck.comexclusions for details.

[Sabri Benishour]

Target stock is down 3.10 of a percent this morning. Target reported its third quarter performance earlier this hour. Sales, it said, were down 1 1/2 percent. Usually this time of year, the big box store would be also announcing tens of thousands of open seasonal jobs for the holidays. But not this year. And Target is not the only retailer holding back on on temporary hiring. Marketplace's Savannah Peters has more.

[Mark Matthews]

To make a big investment in a holiday workforce, retailers need a good sense of what holiday profits are going to look like. And right now there's a lot of.

[Sabri Benishour]

Uncertainty in the industry.

[Mark Matthews]

That's Mark Matthews, chief economist with the National Retail Federation. He says with the burden of tariffs slipping consumer confidence, plus over a month without government data that usually guides these.

[Sabri Benishour]

Decisions, all these different things have left retailers a little bit uncertain about what to do.

[Mark Matthews]

So they're holding off. In November and December, the NRF projects retailers will hire fewer than 365,000 temporary workers.

[Sabri Benishour]

That, for context, is the lowest figure that we've seen in the last 15 years.

[Mark Matthews]

At the same time, that organization predicts that holiday sales will grow in 2025 to just over $1 trillion. So retailers are either betting they can pull that off without reinforcements or they.

[Sucharita Kodali]

Know something that the rest of us don't.

[Mark Matthews]

Sucharita Kodali is a retail analyst with Forrester. She says that projected sales growth could reflect higher than normal inflation rather than a higher volume of sales and traffic.

[Sucharita Kodali]

So even though retailers are making more money, they they're not necessarily making it from more people purchasing more products.

[Mark Matthews]

And if in store traffic does ramp up more than expected. Alan Benson, a labor economist at the University of Minnesota, says retailers have levers to pull in this softening labor market.

[Alan Benson]

It's kind of a buyer's market. You know, they just have a lot of different solutions to fill in hours.

[Mark Matthews]

From automation to rosters of on call workers like the one Target's been investing in to squeezing more out of their permanent workforce.

[Alan Benson]

People who are currently employed are looking at the relatively poor job market and they're thinking, if my retailer can give me more hours than you know, sign me up.

[Mark Matthews]

If you're a job seeker, this is not good news. Benson says the oldest and youngest workers will be hurt most by the slump in holiday hiring. And Sucharita Kodali at Forrester says it will likely chip away at the quality of customer service.

[Sucharita Kodali]

That's everything from products not being stocked on shelves to not having a person being able to answer your questions.

[Mark Matthews]

Telltale signs of retailers trying to do more with less this holiday season. I'm Savannah Peters for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishour]

And in New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace morning Report from 8pm American Public Media.

[Million Bazillion Announcer]

Sometimes kids ask questions that reveal just how much adults still need to learn, like can you explain what causes an economic bubble? And why are things so expensive at the airport? Or how much national debt might be too much? Fear not. Million Bazillion is back with a new season to help you and your kids become pros at understanding how money shapes the answers to all those questions and more. Listen to the latest season of Million Bazillion on your favorite podcast app.