Marketplace Morning Report – July 22, 2025

Hosted by David Brancaccio

1. Housing Market Stagnation Amid High Mortgage Rates

The episode begins with an update on the U.S. housing market. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant recently stated that lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve would "unlock the mortgage market," potentially revitalizing home buying and selling activities (01:01). However, contrary to expectations, mortgage rates have remained steady, with the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.75%, mirroring last year's figures (01:48).

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Totality, attributes the stagnant rates to several factors, including persistent inflation and a robust economy that has resisted rate cuts (02:02). Additionally, new initiatives by the current administration have played a role in maintaining higher rates.

Despite the overall sluggishness, there are regional pockets of improvement. Hepp notes that states like Florida and Texas have experienced some price relief due to increased housing inventory (02:12). Nevertheless, Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders, expresses pessimism, highlighting that sentiment among home builders has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months (02:36). He suggests that prospective homebuyers may need to adjust their expectations or anticipate longer wait times, predicting that mortgage rates may gradually decrease to around 6% over the next two to three years (02:50).

2. Universal Music Group Eyes U.S. Stock Exchange Listing

Transitioning from the housing sector, the report delves into the corporate world with Nancy Marshall Genzer discussing Universal Music Group’s (UMG) recent move to list shares on a U.S. stock exchange (03:26). UMG, the world's largest music corporation, has a storied history, evolving through several ownership changes—from Matsushita to Seagram, and eventually merging with Vivendi. Currently, Chinese conglomerate Tencent holds a roughly 20% stake, alongside investments from American hedge fund manager Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital.

UMG has already been listed on the Euronext Exchange in Amsterdam and is now submitting a proposal to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to expand its trading to the U.S. market. Genzer highlights the uncertainty surrounding the number of shares to be offered and their pricing, emphasizing that the offering is pending SEC approval (04:30).

3. Employment Verification Challenges: Undocumented Workers Amid Changing Policies

The focal point of this episode centers on the complexities employers face in verifying the legal work status of new hires, a topic of increasing relevance due to recent policy shifts.

David Brancaccio introduces the issue by explaining that employers are legally mandated to verify new employees' eligibility to work in the U.S. through the I-9 form and the E-Verify system (05:25). Historically, employers conducted this verification once during the hiring process, assuming that work authorization remained constant. However, the landscape has changed significantly.

Under the Trump administration, numerous work authorizations for immigrants from countries like Haiti, Cuba, and Venezuela were rescinded, leaving many without legal permission to work despite previous statuses (06:01). This sudden revocation has affected not only recent immigrants but also individuals who have been part of the U.S. workforce for decades.

Madeline Zavodny, an economics professor at the University of North Florida, underscores the unpredictability employers now face, stating, "What their employers are going to do, I have no idea" regarding employees who may lose their authorization (06:23).

In response to these changes, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued new guidelines this summer, urging employers to recheck the work status of employees from affected groups using E-Verify (06:36). Glenn Wasserstein, Managing Partner at an immigration law group in D.C., criticizes this directive, noting that it imposes a significant additional burden on employers. He points out a conflict with existing agreements that restrict employers to initial status checks during hiring, highlighting that "it is unclear because the two seem not to match" (07:25).

Emily Dickens, Head of Government Affairs at the Society for Human Resource Management, echoes these concerns, emphasizing the need for "clear, consistent and compliance-oriented guidance" from DHS (07:43). Efforts to obtain clarity from DHS have so far been unsuccessful.

Adding to the challenges, Alex Neurasta, Vice President at the Cato Institute, comments on the ineffectiveness of E-Verify, stating that "The evidence overwhelmingly shows that E-Verify approves most workers who are unauthorized to work in the United States" (08:07). He explains that the system is easily circumvented through fraudulent documents and that employers often lack the incentive to thoroughly verify authenticity during the hiring rush.

Supporting this view, a Cato report from a few years prior revealed that E-Verify flagged fewer than 1 in 6 unauthorized workers, underscoring its limited efficacy in preventing undocumented employment (08:35).

4. Conclusion

David Brancaccio wraps up the episode by highlighting the broader implications of these employment verification challenges, particularly for public media funding. With the elimination of federal funding, local public radio stations face financial strains that could impact their ability to broadcast vital programs like Marketplace. He urges listeners to support their local stations and donate directly to Marketplace to sustain essential journalism (08:47).

This episode of the Marketplace Morning Report provides a comprehensive overview of the current economic climate, touching upon persistent challenges in the housing market, significant corporate developments with Universal Music Group, and the intricate issues surrounding employment verification in the wake of shifting immigration policies. Through expert insights and detailed analysis, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of how these factors interplay to shape the business and economic landscape.