Young workers aren't feeling optimistic about the job market

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "Young workers aren't feeling optimistic about the job market"

Date: May 11, 2026
Host: Sabri Ben-Achour
Duration: ~9 minutes

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on key economic and policy developments affecting Americans, particularly young job seekers. Main stories include:

• A generational divide in job market optimism, with young workers feeling increasingly pessimistic.
• The ongoing inflationary pressure due to rising oil and gas prices, and the difficult position of the Federal Reserve.
• The implementation and potential consequences of new Medicaid work requirements, starting in Nebraska.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Young Workers' Gloomy Job Market Outlook

[01:26 – 02:39]

• Overview: The episode opens with Marketplace’s Nancy Marshall-Genser detailing Gallup poll results showing a significant decline in job market optimism among young Americans (ages 15-34).

• Findings:

  • Only 43% of Americans aged 15 to 34 currently view it as a good time to find a job, compared to 64% for those over 55.
  • This is a 27-point drop in young adults’ optimism since 2023, with the sharpest declines among highly educated young women and those without full-time work.
  • Contradicts historical norms: “Usually fresh new workers are more upbeat than older employees, but Gallup says younger Americans’ optimism…has fallen.”
  • U.S. Gen Z workers are “more pessimistic than their peers in most other advanced economies.”
  • Underlying fears may include concerns over AI eliminating entry-level jobs, despite the poll not directly asking about this.

• Notable Quote:

  • Nancy Marshall-Genser (01:49):

    “Young job seekers are worried about AI eliminating entry level positions, although the Gallup poll didn’t ask about that.”

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2. Inflation, Oil Prices, and the Fed’s Dilemma

[02:39 – 04:50]

• Market Context: President Trump has rejected Iran’s latest response in war negotiations, pushing Brent crude above $104/barrel. U.S. gas averages $4.52/gallon, driving up inflation.

• Expert Analysis:

  • Julia Coronado, founder of Macro Policy Perspectives and UT Austin professor, explains:
    • High gas prices are set to push headline inflation “very high” as the U.S. navigates oil supply uncertainties and declining inventories.
    • The Federal Reserve faces a predicament:
      • Traditional policy tools (raising interest rates) are less effective for supply-driven shocks like gas price spikes.
      • Raising rates would “hurt the economy at a time when it’s already having to absorb the blow of higher prices.”
      • The Fed is currently “standing steady,” choosing to wait and observe economic impacts before adjusting rates.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Julia Coronado (03:11):

    “We’ll see another surge in April gas prices that will take headline inflation very high... We’re not through that. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed.”

  • Julia Coronado (04:09):

    “Their interest rate tool is not ideal for a supply shock where both demand and inflation get hit... not ideal. One reason they are standing steady, standing still.”

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3. Medicaid Work Requirements Roll Out in Nebraska

[06:27 – 09:22]

• Policy Implementation: Nebraska is the first state to enact new federal Medicaid work requirements. Adults must now demonstrate employment, school attendance, volunteering, or medical exemption to retain coverage.

• Key Concerns:

  • Sarah Marash of Apple C Nebraska warns that many Medicaid recipients don’t fully understand the new stakes, leading to confusion and anxiety over potential loss of coverage.
  • Ben Summers (Harvard): Prior similar attempts (e.g., Arkansas, 2018) showed negligible employment increase but significant coverage loss—18,000 lost coverage in Arkansas within 7 months despite years of preparation.
    • Concern that results in some states “could be worse than Arkansas.”
  • Jennifer Wagner (Center for Budget and Policy Priorities) notes:
    • States spend millions on private consulting firms to implement these rules. Implementation is complex due to varied state systems.
    • The CBO projects over 5 million people could lose Medicaid nationally in the next decade, mostly due to paperwork and administrative hurdles rather than ineligibility.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Sarah Marash (07:03):

    “We’re extremely concerned, you know, that people’s health and livelihood is on the line.”

  • Ben Summers (08:03):

    “I actually worry Arkansas isn’t the worst case scenario, and I think we are going to see some states that actually do worse than Arkansas.”

  • Jennifer Wagner (08:41):

    “Deloitte or Accenture, or KPMG. They’re going to make money from making these changes, for sure.”
    (09:04): “Every system, even if it’s built by the same vendor, is different from its neighbor… we have to do it 43 times.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On generational pessimism:
  Nancy Marshall-Genser (01:49):

  “Young job seekers are worried about AI eliminating entry-level positions…”

• On inflation and Fed strategy:
  Julia Coronado (03:11):

  “We’ll see another surge in April gas prices that will take headline inflation very high...”
  Julia Coronado (04:09):
  “Their interest rate tool is not ideal for a supply shock…”

• On Medicaid requirements:
  Sarah Marash (07:03):

  “People’s health and livelihood is on the line.”
  Ben Summers (08:03):
  “I actually worry Arkansas isn’t the worst case scenario…”
  Jennifer Wagner (08:41):
  “They’re going to make money from making these changes, for sure.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Young workers’ job market pessimism: 01:26 – 02:39
• Oil prices, inflation, and the Fed: 02:39 – 04:50
• Medicaid work requirements rollout: 06:27 – 09:22

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Summary

In this concise yet rich episode, "Marketplace Morning Report" explores how young workers’ optimism about jobs is at historic lows, likely exacerbated by uncertainty about technology and the economy. Rising oil and gas prices worsen inflation and present the Federal Reserve with tough choices, as their conventional tools won’t easily fix supply-driven shocks. Finally, the implementation of new Medicaid work requirements is beginning in Nebraska, with experts warning of mass coverage loss primarily from administrative barriers, not actual ineligibility. The episode is informative, data-driven, and punctuated with expert analysis and voices directly affected by these policy shifts.

Transcript

[Marketplace Announcer]

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[Sabri Ben-Achour]

There is an Optimism age Gap From Marketplace I'm Sabri Ben ashore in New York. There are many divides between the generations, and one that currently emerging comes courtesy of the labor market. Gen Z is feeling pretty gloomy about the job market, while older Americans are feeling more optimistic. This is from a Gallup poll out today. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser has that Gallup

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

found that Last year only 43% of Americans aged 15 to 34 thought it was a good time to find a job that's 21 percentage points lower than the rate for Americans age 55 and up. Usually fresh new workers are more upbeat than older employees, but Gallup says younger Americans Americans optimism about the job market has fallen by 27 points since 2023, with the biggest drop among the most educated young women and those without a full time job. Part of the gloom may be because young job seekers are worried about AI eliminating entry level positions, although the Gallup poll didn't ask about that. Gen Z workers in the US Are also more pessimistic than their peers in most other advanced economies, where young adults are still more upbeat than older workers. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for MarketPL.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

President Trump has rejected Iran's latest response in negotiations to end the war. And right on cue, the price of oil is on its way back up. Brent crude is over $104 a barrel. The price of gas in the US is also rising, $4.52 a gallon on average, and that is seeping its way into inflation. Julia Coronado is founder of Macro Policy Perspectives and a professor at UT Austin and is here to talk about it. Hi, Julia.

[Julia Coronado]

Good morning.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

Tomorrow we get the Consumer Price Index. How bad is the inflation going to be now with a couple months of

[Julia Coronado]

very high gas prices, we'll see another surge in April gas prices that will take headline inflation very high. And again, we're not through that. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. We're running through inventories, and eventually we're going to see much sharper physical limitations globally. And that will keep driving prices higher unless and until there's a resolution. So we'll get a taste of that, another taste of that this week, but it will not be the end of the story for sure.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

You know, when the Federal Reserve tries to tackle inflation, they raise interest rates or keep them high. And part of the idea there is to kind of crimp demand. But if gas prices are high, which makes people not want to spend on gas or they have to spend less on other stuff, what's the point of having high interest rates? Like, what can that actually do for a problem like high gas prices?

[Julia Coronado]

You highlight the tensions the Fed is facing. Their interest rate tool is not ideal for a supply shock where both demand and inflation get hit. So raising interest rates would hurt the economy at a time when it's already having to absorb the blow of higher prices. So again, not ideal. One reason that they are standing steady, standing still, not doing anything with interest rates and trying to wait and see how this crisis unfolds and how the economy absorbs the blow before they make a decision on the right move in interest rates.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

Julio Coronado, founder and president of Macro Policy Perspectives, thank you so much.

[Julia Coronado]

My pleasure.

[Marketplace Announcer]

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[Sabri Ben-Achour]

If you want to keep your Medicaid benefits, you have to prove you are working or are too sick to work. That is from a new federal law. This month Nebraska became the first state to start implementing that law. States are projecting having to spend tens of millions of doll on these work verification programs that are expected to kick millions of people off of health insurance.

[Alex Olgan]

Alex Olgan has more adults in Nebraska will now need to prove they're working in school or volunteering to keep Medicaid or show they're too sick to do so. Sarah Marash with Apple C Nebraska, a nonprofit advocacy group, is worried beneficiaries don't realize the stakes.

[Sarah Marash]

We're extremely concerned, you know, that people's health and livelihood is on the line,

[Alex Olgan]

maharash says people with Medicaid she's spoken to are confused. She points to one woman who scheduled an appointment to remove a medical device device after a state caseworker told her she would lose coverage.

[Sarah Marash]

It took them over an hour on the phone with multiple caseworkers to find out that they are not going to be subject to the work requirements. And so these specific examples are really concerning to us and are already kind of the canary in the coal mine.

[Alex Olgan]

Policy groups estimate anywhere between 15 and 30,000 Nebraskans will lose health insurance, mostly from paperwork barriers rather than eligibility. That's what happened during an earlier attempt at a Medicaid work requirement during the first Trump administration, says Ben Summers at Harvard. He studied Arkansas's rollout in 2018.

[Ben Summers]

There was no significant change in employment. There was no increase in the number of people working, the number of work hours.

[Alex Olgan]

18,000 people in Arkansas lost coverage in seven months. That was after years of prep and systems designed to flag people who should be exempt.

[Ben Summers]

I actually worry Arkansas isn't the worst case scenario, and I think we are going to see some states that actually do worse than Arkansas.

[Alex Olgan]

Nebraska's health department aims to avoid a repeat by using existing data to verify eligibility rather than on ongoing self reporting. Since most states start this in 2027 it will take several months to see the impact. The Congressional Budget Office projects more than 5 million people will lose Medicaid over the next decade due to these new rules. What's clear now, says Jennifer Wagner, is the large price tag. She's director of Medicaid eligibility at the center for Budget and Policy Priorities, Deloitte

[Jennifer Wagner]

or Accenture, or kpmg. They're going to make money from making these changes, for sure.

[Alex Olgan]

KFF Health News reported that Illinois is spending $12 million and Iowa is shelling out 20 million on these consulting firms to update eligibility platforms. Each of the 42 states and D.C. that offer Medicaid coverage to single adults making about $22,000 a year will have slightly different rules.

[Jennifer Wagner]

Every system, even if it's built by the same vendor, is different from its neighbor. And therefore, even though it's the same federal policy, we have to do it 43 times.

[Alex Olgan]

Iowa and Montana go live later this year. The rest will go in 2027. I'm Alex Olgan for Marketplace, and in

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

New York, I'm Sabree Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report from apm American Public Media.

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