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- [00:00]
Mike Forest
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- [00:07]
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- [00:53]
Mike Forest
Hey, what's going on guys? Welcome back to the Mike Forest Podcast. It is good to be with you. Thank you so much for supporting the new channel, Preaching to the Choir. It's actually Ike preaching to the Choir. I'll link that down below. I'm doing Sunday episodes and on Wednesday tomorrow I have my first biblical studies episode called practicing what you preach on Genesis. The beginning guys. Day 31 of the war with Iran. According to the administration, as of this morning, a core objective is not the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, despite all of the logistical supply chain issues it's causing, including for the first time in three years, gas at $4 a gallon. It's actually above $4 a gallon. Now I want to talk about this because everybody says watch oil, watch gas prices. But that's too simple. You see the issues that are happening around Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil problem. It's the beginning of a broader supply chain issue that could squeeze Americans for months, if not years to come. And nobody seems to be talking about it. Today I saw a press release from an official in France who gave basically a preparedness checklist of things to stockpile because of what was taking place. So first, fuel and diesel. That's a major issue. 20% of our supply comes to the Strait. That includes oil and gas. But second, plastics and manufacturing. Why is nobody talking about that? The company, Dow, who focuses a lot of sales of plastic in Canada and the US just increased its prices starting April 1 double. It was 15 cents. It's now 30 cents per pound for plastic. Third, nobody's talking about this, but the fertilizer and the food supply, a lot of the chemicals that are provided for fertilizer that we import from countries like China are actually coming through the strait.
- [03:09]
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K Pop Demon Hunters, Haja Boys, Breakfast Meal and Hunt tricks meal have just dropped at McDonald's. They're calling this a battle for the fans. What do you say to that? Rudy? It's not a battle. So glad the Saja boys could take breakfast and give our meal the rest of the day. It is an honor to share. No, it's our honor. It is our larger honor. No, really stop. You can really feel the respect in this battle. Pick a meal to pick a side
- [03:37]
Mike Forest
and participate in McDonald's while supplies last.
- [03:41]
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- [04:12]
Mike Forest
So if you don't understand how all three of these things connect, you're going to miss what actually matters. When this starts showing up in your daily life in the next couple months. You see, it's like a rubber band stretching out. And when a rubber band stretches out, we don't pay attention because we're just enthralled with it stretching out, stretching thin. But it snaps back always and causes all of these issues. There's going to be a consequence. So we could stretch it out. We could not pay attention and then eventually we'll catch up. Guys, my sponsor today is Carnival. You guys know I've been talking about this company for months now. Carnival does freeze dried beef, chicken and pork and this is their top sirloin. I had this for breakfast this morning with my eggs. This is 25 year shelf life food. Now I'm going to give you the list of things that I think you should have on hand in supply. This is one of them. We'll talk about that at the end of the podcast. But you guys could use my coupon code in the description down below. They also have a subscription based setup where you don't have to increase the prices of beef on demand as it increased 50 plus percent last year. You could lock in your prices with that subscription@carnavault.com and I'll link all that stuff down below. So guys, segment one that we need to discuss is the fuel. Diesel and freight are the first hit. We've already been talking about this. Now as a prediction because the news is reporting on it. This is open source. 60,000 troops in the area 10,000 more requested boats, ships, ground forces from the 82nd Airborne Division are all deploying there. US Army Special Operations Command just confirmed that Rangers, likely, Green Berets, likely, they belong to USASAK as well. And Tier one organizations are staging. So the President has more options. Now, it's interesting in this proposal by the administration that a court objective on whether or not the war ends was not the reopening of the Strait of Her Hormuz. What they said is they would work through diplomatic efforts if the war ended. Because Trump's initial timeline, his desire, was four to six weeks, because he probably looked at the economics of that. I predict within the next seven to 10 days, within the next seven to 10 days, there will be troops on the ground to secure the Strait of Hormuz. It's really the only way that you secure the area is by securing the strait. There's a square box that you have to lock in away from man pads, anti aircraft weapon systems, and drones. You see there's a flat plateau leading into a massive mountain range that protects Tehran. And if you could lock that area down, you could prevent the Strait from being under attack by Iranian military. But you're completely exposed. And that's my fear. If we have boots on the ground in any way in the Strait, there is likely going to be mass casualties because we need air overhead always to protect the troops on the ground. And that's going to be including protecting them from intercontinental ballistic missiles. I mean, the list goes on drones, etc. So when we're looking at the Strait of Hormuz itself, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids move to the Strait. A major chunk of global LNG also moves to this corridor. Even if the Strait doesn't fully close, insurance rerouting delays and panic pricing drive cost up. This is why the first hit isn't just gas at the pump. Again, we're above $4 a gallon, which is the first time in three years, since 2022. The real issue is diesel, because diesel affects farming equipment, construction, delivery, generators, domestic freight. So you might go into a gas station at Walmart like I do, because it's relatively inexpensive there as compared to other pumps in the town. But everything that you do there, you say, I'm going to pump 4 gallons or $4 a gallon. This is expensive. I can't believe it. Everything in the store across the parking lot has now gone up because to get there through distribution requires diesel. So when diesel spikes, the bottom line is everything is more expensive. And so people think that that starts at the Gas station, it doesn't. It starts in freight. It, it starts in mass distribution. The truck drivers that are driving the vehicles, their costs went up and then they have to deliver the goods. The manufacturers are eating the cost. So they increase prices of goods economically. It affects everything trickling down from that oil and gas. The bottom of that is you at the pump. So it starts in freight and freight infects the entire economy. And that's how it always works. Segment two of this is going to be the evolution of plastics and the hidden industrial shock waves that it's causing that nobody's paying attention to. Because if the plastics are not being made and the prices are going up, well, a lot of the things that we use, the cell phones, the, the, the car parts, they're imported from manufacturing processes that are happening overseas that are now logistically strained. Their costs go up. So the costs overall go up and the supply chain shrinks, if not stops completely. So this is underreported. The Middle east petrochemical flow is a major, major global source for polyurethane and related plastics. So public reporting shows plastics pricing has already spiked 40, 50, 50% in most markets and the supply chain is tightening. So Dow reportedly increased U.S. kennedy, Canada polyurethane pricing from 15 cents a pound to 30 cents a pound in an official memo starting April 1. That is not some obscure industrial memo. That is a massive impact from top down consumer being you, you're going to be impacted at the bottom of that. And this hits downstream for food packaging, water bottles, storage containers, medical packaging, auto parts, garbage bags, consumer goods, construction materials. I mean the list goes on and on and on. Everything, the clothes that you wear, the bag that your coffee comes in, all of these things are going to be affected. So this is where the oral story becomes a consumer good story. If plastics double which they are in some markets, it's not just Tupperware, it's packaging, shipping, manufacturing, medicine, automotive parts and the cost of basic household goods that are going to go up. And how far does it go up? As long as the war continues on day 31 now, this will continue. Already at gas crossing that $4 a gallon threshold. I could tell you right now the administration is panicking because their whole premise, especially leading into the midterm, is that they were a party of peace where you had warmongers leading us into endless wars. A prime example with Biden closing down Afghanistan so recklessly and the way that he did it, the, the fix right now is we are using diplomatic, aggressive statements and stances in order to Sway the Iranians from continuing this war. We want the straight open, we want the them to end. In a 15 point memo, certain things and the negotiations apparently aren't going as good as we anticipated. Right now there's a threat by the Trump administration to target civilian energy infrastructure and at that same time that's happening that that we're threatening them, if they don't open, they don't open the strait. Tehran last night had a blackout and power infrastructure was directly targeted. Israeli strikes hit power infrastructure inside of Tehran. Is this a significant escalation? For sure it is because the Israelis targeted civilian power infrastructure in the capital city. If you want to see the second and third order effect, it's going to be a humanitarian crisis in Tehran, in Iran as a whole, with a lot of people, millions of people that are not going to get food supplies themselves, who are going to run out and then who's being impacted and affected? Sure, the military at some capacity, but mostly civilians. A major escalation in fact. So one of the third segments in this that nobody has discussed is fertilizer and how it becomes the delayed food hit. Because a major percentage of global traded fertilizer products and feedstocks, including chemicals for fertilizer, move through the area affected and we buy fertilizer from the region and import it into our country. Public reporting has shown urea is up, ammonia is rising and the export restrictions are tightening. Including from China, up to 75% of their exports. They're restricting. Why? Because they're holding it for themselves. They know if they outsource and ship and export that they won't have enough for themselves and it causes a massive strain and the American economics, including food production. What's interesting here is when I say fertilizer, you're thinking about your home garden. It's not that it's massive agriculture that's producing the food that's being shipped and distributed into your grocery store. So imagine if we just walk this back. The gas or the diesel is more expensive, so that drives up cost. And then the agricultural supply chain is shrunken because there's a shortage of fertilizer. So then you have food supplies dwindling at the same time the costs are going up. And then how does that affect us at the dinner table? Well, if you haven't outsourced and self reliantly started looking at how you're going to feed your family on your own, you might want to do that again. I'll go over the France version of this, the French version of this, on how they propose it to their people. But you better stop start stockpiling. So this is not a tomorrow morning at Home Depot shortage story. This isn't one of those stories. This is a spring planting and crop input story that's going to affect you for the rest of the year. Higher fertilizer cost, higher diesel cost, higher transportation cost. And the consumer is going to fill it later in. Meat, dairy, grain, processed foods, produce with higher logistics cost. So fuel hits first, plastics hit next, food hits last. But food is what people remember. This is the slow bleed. Now, strategically, according to Iran itself, who's attacked by pharmaceutical companies, they just hit the larger largest world supplier in the UAE of aluminum in the entire world, the smelting facility for aluminum that supplies the world. They just hit that and then bragged about it. Because as we're focusing on military targets, they're focusing on hitting us where it hurts us the most in the long play. So why it matters to America is one, higher fuel and diesel cost have immediate broader impact and raise the prices of everything domestically. We're already past that point. We're still stretching the rubber band. When will it snap back? Well, it will snap back for you relatively soon. I mean it's already starting to show signs of that. With gas prices be beyond $4 a gallon for the first time since 2000, late 2022, the higher plastics and industrial input have hidden but massive effects. And then obviously the slower burn is the fertilizer because it's more politically painful and it's going to hit grocery stores, farming margins and household budgets. So this is not about panic buying. I'm not saying to go out and panic buy. Even though I'm going to go out and stockpile some more. I actually have doubled down on this. I had just requested a resupply. What? You should look out for some indications that things are going south very fast. Local diesel prices, I mean they're already more expensive than gas. Five plus dollars a gallon here locally in Utah, four plus dollars a gallon here for gas fertilizer price movement, start tracking that. Plastics packaging, price increases, trucking surcharges, shipping delays. I have a buddy, Kyle, who has a roasting process for coffee. He can't even get coffee bags to put that coffee in. It's delayed. Shipping delays are going to affect you also everything from Amazon to your automotive parts. Why? Because there's a supply shortage on the back end. And it's not because they can't ship it out, but it's because the cost are so high. So the windows of opportunity to ship are going to decrease and not. And then also empty shelf gaps in non food essential essentials before food. What people should consider when you go to the Walmart, there are many things like olive oil, certain plastics, certain additives and fuels that you're going to see start coming off the shelves immediately. And when you see those gaps on the shelf, it's a good indication that there's no turning back. So what you should consider stockpiling. Now this is my recommendation. Shelf stable foods. Stockpile this guys. Stockpile it. Yeah, sure, tap into it. But it's 25 year shelf life. Stockpile it. Household consumables packaged in plastic. Any consumables that you have that are packaged in plastic, you're likely going to see a shortage in supply. Trash bags. I know it's like trash bags. A trash bag is a sheet of plastic that is going to be uberly delayed and you're going to see a shortage of that in supply soon, Very soon. Food storage materials, plastic bins. I am actually going out not because there's this shortage, but that's a variability that you're going to see down the road. I need storage bins. It's a good time to buy them. It's a good time to go to Home Depot to ace and buy food storage bins or, or containers that hold water because those plastic containers are not going to be available anytime soon. Common farm ranch inputs if they're rural and spare vehicle consumables, including car parts that you need to have on hand. If, for example, you have an older vehicle, like I have a 85 Toyota 4Runner, which I love, you might want to get some spare parts for it that are going to be in short supply demand. So if you need an alternator, if you need spark plugs, might be a good time just to have that on the shelf. Look, I'm not trying to talk about preparedness because of fear. I'm trying to talk about preparedness because of preparation and anticipation of what's happening in real time. This is not theoretical. The Strait of Hormuz is shut down and is not open. And diplomatically we are, we are failing at, at the negotiation table if we're even negotiating with the right people at all. There's speculation that these people that we're talking to don't even run the country and Iran keeps putting out statements that they're not even negotiating with us. So if it gets hit in freight, if it get hit, if it get hits in packaging and agriculture, eventually it's going to hit you at the dinner table. One thing you might want to think about is going fishing on a chartered fishing boat. Pay the cost. Stockpile 50 pounds of fish, put it in your freezer. If you haven't hunted this year or past that season, you need to stockpile as much wild game as you can. If you haven't done so already.
- [21:45]
Commercial Announcer
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- [22:45]
Mike Forest
talking about oil in the Strait of Hormuz. And I get it because it's a compelling story, especially with the potential of us locking it down with ground forces, which I think is going to happen. But nobody's really talking about the global impact that is going to affect us because the global supply chain overall is being impacted. And we import everything. Sure, there are some processes that we've taken over. Nvidia, for example, we work through chip manufacturing in the country, but many of the things that we import, including beef and vegetables and fruits, we still import. And there's going to be a supply chain issue globally that's going to affect the imports that we have on the shelf at your local Walmart. Now, I do want to go over this. I'll populate it here on the screen. This list that was sent to me this morning, that was disseminated from an expert in preparedness based on what's happening. And it came actually from France. Now on this is white rice, pasta, dried legumes, lentils, etc, canned vegetables, canned proteins, cooking and seasoning, including vegetable oil. I would, I would add olive oil to that, sugar, fine and coarse salt, ground coffee, dried fruits or fruit pouches, bottles of mineral water, toilet paper, soap, shampoo toothpaste. You see the rest of everything on the list. Guys, that is a very good breakdown of what you should have at a minimum. Lighters and matches are at the bottom of it. You should have these things at a minimum one. This list you should have at all times. This is the, this is like the foundational list. Everything else I talked about. Please add that to your list because it's not going to get any better. Day 31 of the war. It's currently evolving and we'll know a lot more soon. Guys, I did an underground episode of this for my patreons. For my Patreons. For my patrons on my Patreon. That's listed down below in the description. Down below. We also did a breakout for a med kit. We're doing preparedness content for you because that's what I do. If you haven't picked up my book prepared a manual for surviving worst case scenarios, you can pick it up because I also linked that down below and if you send it to me, I do have a an address you could DM me. If you send it to me, I will sign it for you. A personalized copy of that. Again, it's prepared a manual for surviving worst case scenarios. Until next time, guys. Peace out.