Mixed Signals from Semafor Media

Episode: Freakanomics’ Stephen Dubner on why long-form podcasting isn't dead yet
Date: January 23, 2026
Host(s): Max Tani, Ben Smith
Guest: Stephen J. Dubner (Freakonomics Radio)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the evolution of media and journalism in the digital age, featuring a deep-dive interview with Stephen Dubner, host of Freakonomics Radio. The conversation traces Freakonomics’ journey from best-selling book to enduring podcast and soon-to-be TV show, examining how the show has adapted, what “data-driven” journalism means today, why Dubner believes long-form podcasting remains vibrant, and how the changing media landscape shapes what and how we consume information.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Davos, Media, and Far-Right Narratives (00:11 – 01:53)

• Ben Smith reports from Davos, noting the presence and changed tone of right-leaning media provocateurs. He observes that their acceptance by the Davos establishment undermines their narrative of opposition.
  • “It almost feels a little disappointing the degree to which they've been kind of welcomed. It undermines their narrative.” (B, 01:24)

2. Freakonomics History & Dubner’s Media Philosophy (02:24 – 08:13)

• Dubner’s arc from journalist to media entrepreneur is situated against trends like data-driven analysis popularized by Freakonomics ("the opposite of Trumponomics").
• Dubner reflects on the importance and power of new digital tools for journalism, and the freeing nature of being able to directly reach a global audience.
  • “Literally a free, global, instant distribution system that we have for podcasting. I think mostly because Steve Jobs decided at some point that he thought the iPhone should have a podcast app on it.” (C, 06:41)
• On journalism’s market-driven incentives:
  • “Journalism is as market driven as everything else... the Times and the Journal and everywhere else sort of prospered by carving out their audience, figuring out who their audience was, then feeding them stuff that aligned with them, that made me a little bit uneasy.” (C, 05:45)

3. Media Silos & Audience Diversity (08:13 – 11:56)

• Dubner asserts that breaking free from algorithmic silos is “really, really hard,” but says Freakonomics maintains a notably diverse audience.
  • He distinguishes between “curiosity-driven journalism” versus “proclamation journalism,” arguing for the former.
  • “If that's my silo, I'm happy to live in that silo of people who are just trying to find out the way the world actually works.” (C, 08:58)
• Critiques the increasing tendency for media to tell people how to think, especially at places like the New York Times.

4. Transparency vs. Telling People What to Think (11:56 – 14:06)

• An exchange on the difference between journalists offering their own views versus instructing audiences:
  • Ben Smith: “It's acknowledging that you might be wrong, honestly, and being very open to hearing voices that disagree with you.” (B, 12:43)
  • Dubner: Prefers an approach of curiosity, open-mindedness, and quoting subjects directly, which is why he gravitated to podcasting over traditional print profiles.
    • “In a podcast, you actually hear primarily from the person that you're featuring.” (C, 13:44)

5. The Art of Reporting & Fact-Checking (14:06 – 16:56)

• Dubner discusses the process-intensive approach to producing Freakonomics Radio versus looser, conversation-driven shows:
  • “Every tape cut is poured over, over. And again, we edit, we script. We, you know, we script the narration. I rewrite that five times. We record it. We end up editing that. Then you're adding sound and all that.” (C, 14:38)
• He values robust internal fact-checking, joking about producing a live fact-checking segment.

6. Podcasting Goes to TV: Challenges and Motivations (16:56 – 22:55)

• Dubner reveals he’s piloting a TV talk show, Better in Person, inspired partly by Dick Cavett’s format but focused on authenticity and in-depth, in-person conversations.
  • “It's a real TV show. But I can't then go back and edit myself, and I can't go back and rewrite the narration around it the way I do for Freakonomics Radio. So that's... it's frightening.” (C, 16:55)
• He describes the technical and editorial contrasts between tightly produced audio and the unpredictability of live video.

7. Anecdotes vs. Data in Journalism (29:22 – 32:23)

• Smith revisits the “three anecdotes make a trend” problem.
  • Dubner: While data storytelling has made headway, the media overall remains dominated by anecdotalism. Increased “data literacy” for journalists is essential.
    • “I think a lot of journalists are forced to act as if you know a lot more than you do.” (C, 31:15)
    • “One of the journalists’ most powerful tools is to find someone who knows what's going on and say to them really directly, listen, I'm writing this story about an area that is granted complicated and often obscure from public view. And so I don't know that much about it. And I really want you to explain it to me as best as you can.” (C, 31:35)

8. Prediction Markets & Insider Information (32:23 – 36:00)

• The group debates the merits and flaws of prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket), noting their surprising accuracy versus punditry and polls.
  • “When the stakes are real, the information is often much better... their predictions are often quite a bit better than pundits and quite a bit better than polls.” (C, 33:15)
• Dubner points to the hypocrisy of Congress’s “insider trading” as emblematic of flawed transparency.

9. Longevity, Change, and Creative Independence in Podcasting (36:00 – 44:08)

• Freakonomics Radio’s subject range has vastly broadened, now following whatever captivates Dubner. He draws a line from the earliest days of Freakonomics, acknowledging audience chagrin as the show’s focus has evolved.
  • “I pretty much just chase my own curiosities. But I will say I have fairly varied curiosities, so. So I really do like business, I like sports, I like the arts. I don't like politics all that much.” (C, 40:54)
• He credits his “graduate school of 20 years with Steve Levitt” for instilling love of deep research, and cherishes independence.

10. State of Long-Form Podcasting & the Industry (44:08 – 47:28)

• On industry trends, Dubner sees decreased investment in high-production-value podcasts as a financial shift, not an existential one.
  • “Our audience has not declined. I know that the gospel is that long form is endangered and that short form has superseded or is in the middle of superseding. But, you know, I just, I honestly don't pay that much attention to it.” (C, 44:53)
• He views predictions about the media’s future as inherently unreliable and prefers focusing on making the best work he can, for as long as the audience is there:
  • “If I'm in my little shop making my stuff and it's good, then I'll continue to have a large enough audience where I'm part of the landscape, whatever the landscape is, and then, you know, at some point I'll die and I won't have to worry about it.” (C, 47:06)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Journalism is as market driven as everything else... The Times and the Journal and everywhere else sort of prospered by carving out their audience, figuring out who their audience was, then feeding them stuff that aligned with them. That made me a little bit uneasy.” — Stephen Dubner (05:45)
• “If that's my silo, I'm happy to live in that silo of people who are just trying to find out the way the world actually works.” — Stephen Dubner (08:58)
• “I think it's idiotic that so many of us have allowed ourselves to be divided into teams that are in an industry, the political industry, which is thriving, it's doing incredibly well.” — Stephen Dubner (11:45)
• “It's acknowledging that you might be wrong, honestly, and being very open to hearing voices that disagree with you.” — Ben Smith (12:43)
• “I just think if you do it as, you know, honestly, as you can, work as hard as you can, you have a chance.” — Stephen Dubner (16:55)
• “Our audience is not declined… the gospel is that long form is endangered… but I just, I honestly don't pay that much attention to it.” — Stephen Dubner (44:53)
• “I'm just going to keep doing what I'm doing until I die. I'm very, very happy with it.” — Stephen Dubner (47:23)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:11] — Introductions, Ben Smith at Davos
• [04:10] — Dubner reflects on Freakonomics’ 20 years and media intuition
• [06:41] — The digital revolution’s impact on journalism
• [08:39] — Breaking media silos, Freakonomics’ diverse audience
• [11:56] — “How the New York Times changed”: telling you how to think
• [13:44] — Value of hearing source voices; why Dubner chose podcasting
• [14:38] — Reporting rigor, fact-checks, and live challenges
• [16:55] — Launching a live-to-tape TV show: Better in Person
• [29:22] — Data versus anecdotes in journalism
• [32:23] — Prediction markets and insider information
• [36:38] — How Freakonomics Radio changed
• [44:08] — Decline in long-form podcast investment
• [47:23] — Why Dubner ignores trends and just keeps creating

Reflections & Closing

Hosts’ Take:
After the interview, Max Tani and Ben Smith debate the wisdom and efficacy of migrating thoughtful audio shows like Freakonomics to video/TV. Ben expresses skepticism about whether “richer, more complex” doesn’t always add value to intellectual formats. Both agree that the current trend toward video is largely about monetization and discoverability, but wonder if the unique appeal of Freakonomics can translate in new visual forms.

Apt final note from Dubner:
“I'm just going to keep doing what I'm doing until I die. I'm very, very happy with it.” (C, 47:23)

Suggested Listen For

• Anyone interested in the state of journalism and podcasting
• Loyal fans of Freakonomics
• Media professionals seeking candid views on trends, incentives, and the future of audio storytelling
• Those curious about how to balance curiosity, data, and storytelling in a media career

[Podcast: Mixed Signals from Semafor Media, Jan 23, 2026. Guest: Stephen Dubner.]