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In this episode of Monetary Matters, Stanford University finance professor Hanno Lustig dives deep into the hidden mechanics of financial repression and fiscal sustainability. Professor Lustig explains how governments historically use financial repression to fund themselves at artificially low interest rates, shifting the economic burden away from taxpayers and onto everyday bondholders and savers. The conversation then centers on Japan's debt puzzle, exploring how the nation has sustained a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 200% without triggering a severe fiscal crisis. By consolidating the balance sheets of the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan, Lustig reveals that the public sector has been executing a massive, highly leveraged carry trade. This bold strategy involves funding operations by issuing bank reserves at near-zero interest rates and reinvesting those funds into higher-yielding foreign currencies and risky global equities. While this financial engineering has generated immense returns for the government, it operates as a hidden, regressive tax that heavily penalizes financially unsophisticated citizens who hold basic bank deposits. Finally, as inflation forces the Bank of Japan to abandon yield curve control and raise interest rates, Lustig warns that this carry trade could violently unravel, offering a cautionary tale for other indebted Western economies. Recorded April 8, 2026.

Hanno Lustig’s Research discussed in interview: “What About Japan?”: https://www.nber.org/papers/w31850

“Japan’s Debt Puzzle: Sovereign Wealth Fund from Borrowed Money”:

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.20251452

“Safe until crisis: What 300 years of wars reveal about government debt safety”:

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/safe-until-crisis-what-300-years-wars-reveal-about-government-debt-safety

Hanno’s ‘Stack: https://thetwocents.substack.com/

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Follow Jack Farley on https://x.com/jackfarley96

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