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Harris Kupperman and Roderick van Zuylen join Monetary Matters to discuss the intersection of thematic macro trends and event-driven catalysts. They dives deep into the severe supply-demand imbalances creating massive tailwinds for the refining industry, alongside the political shifts making Latin American equities a highly lucrative trade. They also discuss the rising volatility driving commodity brokers like Marex, and why the eldercare sector is primed for a breakout due to a halt in new facility construction.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:10 Refiners Theme Setup

02:06 Why Cracks Tightened

05:18 Picking Refiner Winners

08:26 Earnings Path Dependence

14:22 Analyst Estimates Mispriced

17:54 Latin America Tailwinds

20:57 Brazil Financials Bet

24:01 Finding Mispriced Setups

30:28 KEDM Offer

31:15 Long Vol Through Brokers

34:03 Marex and Stonex Tailwinds

34:33 Macro Drivers of Volumes

36:11 CFO Hedging Incentives

37:57 Prediction Markets Opportunity

39:32 Eldercare Theme Setup

44:53 When Themes Meet Catalysts

46:17 Investor Days as Signals

48:45 Fallen Angels Returns

53:15 AI Automation for Monitors

54:23 CEO Pay as a Tell

55:26 US Consumer Weakness

This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. Any views expressed are the personal opinions of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of their employers, affiliates, clients, or any related parties. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own advisers before making any investment or financial decision. The appearance of any speaker, guest, company, product, or service on this podcast does not constitute an endorsement, recommendation, or approval by any participant or third party. Any investments discussed are illustrative only and are not intended to reflect any actual portfolio. Examples are meant to show aspects of an investment approach, and while some may highlight successful trades, not all trades are successful or profitable.