← Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
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- [00:00]
Nicole Lapin
So I just went to the grocery store and I actually flinched at the cost of eggs and I don't even really eat eggs. That's how bad it is. Everything feels more expensive. And so I'm hearing from a lot of money rehabbers right now that their credit cards are getting a lot of exercise right now. But the last thing I want for any of you is to go into credit card debt. Enter Chime Credit Builder Card. This is a secured credit card with no annual fees. You can build credit with money you set aside and avoid interest or expensive debt.
- [00:27]
Steve Eisman
Please.
- [00:27]
Nicole Lapin
Plus you can get access to MyPay and get up to $500 of your pay before payday with no mandatory fees. Start building credit with your everyday purchases and regular on time payments with no annual fees, interest or credit check@chime.com mnn and then when you go to chime.com mnn as in money News Network, you'll start thinking about all the doors that will open once you start building your credit. Like lower rates on loans. Who doesn't want that? Turn your everyday purchases into steps toward your financial goals with Chime Secure Credit. Get started today@chime.com mnn that's chime.com mnn Chime feels like progress. The Chime Credit Builder Visa credit card is issued by the Bancorp Bank NA or Stride bank na. Spot ME eligibility requirements and overdraft limits apply. Out of network ATM withdrawal and OTC advance fees may apply. Late payment may negatively impact your credit score. Results may vary. MyPay eligibility requirements apply. Credit limits range from 200 to $500. Go to Chime.com disclosures for details. So I have written, count them five books now. But each time I'm in the writing process I stay at an Airbnb. I love to stay at an Airbnb. When I was actually first launching this show, I was at an Airbnb in Arizona. It was so peaceful. It was stunning. I could be productive and comfortable. The Airbnb was also surrounded by a ton of javelinas.
- [01:48]
Steve Eisman
If you know Arizona, you know they're like wild pig creatures.
- [01:52]
Nicole Lapin
But honestly, I love them too. Being away for work, for fun, or both is a perfect opportunity to host your space on Airbnb. And if you think that hosting is overwhelming, I have a solve for you. With Airbnb's co host network, it's easier than ever before to host. It's also a great way to earn some extra cash, which I know we all love. Now you can hire a quality local co host to take care of your home and your guests. They can do everything from creating your listing to managing reservations, to messaging guests and even providing on site support. So if you've got a secondary property or an extended trip coming up and you need a little help hosting while you're away, you can hire a co host to do the work for you. Find a co host@airbnb.com host. I'm Nicole Lapin, the only financial expert. You don't need a dictionary to understand.
- [02:45]
Steve Eisman
It's time for some money rehab.
- [02:54]
Nicole Lapin
Is 2008 repeating itself? That is the question I keep seeing in the headlines. And today I'm talking to the perfect person to answer that question. Steve Eisman doesn't need much of an introduction. He's the investor who famously saw what no one else saw in 2008 and bet against the market before the crash. He was immortalized in the movie the Big Short. He was portrayed by Steve Carell in that movie. So kind of a big deal. Now he's talking about what he's seeing in the current market on his podcast, the Eisman Playbook. And today, right here on Money Rehab. So I ask him the big question, is this history repeating itself? And he answers that and a lot more. He tells me whether he thinks we're on track for a recession, where he sees opportunities in this market, what he thinks Trump is going to do next, and his advice for new investors.
- [03:43]
Steve Eisman
Steve Eisman, welcome to Money Rehab.
- [03:46]
Glad to be here.
- [03:47]
Damn, it's been a week. How are you doing?
- [03:50]
Really? Did something happen this week?
- [03:52]
Yeah, no, I haven't looked at the news lately. Who do you think needs a hug right now?
- [03:59]
Who needs a hug? I think a lot of. I think a lot of people need a hug. I don't know about you, but I think everybody's pretty emotionally exhausted from this week.
- [04:08]
Yeah, I need a hug. I mean, for those who haven't listened to Steve's podcast yet, the Eisman Playbook, please run, don't walk. And listen, you and your team talk about the story of 08, where you guys met with the CEO of WaMu, who knew you were short their stock, and as soon as you walked in, you said, you look like you need a hug.
- [04:24]
He did. Badly. And I hugged him.
- [04:28]
A lot of people need a hug these days. So I want to do some time travel back to oa, but I want to start with where we are right now.
- [04:35]
Sure.
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We're talking on Thursday, April 10th.
- [04:38]
Nicole Lapin
And I.
- [04:38]
Steve Eisman
And I preface this because every day is. Is some big move.
- [04:42]
Every day? How about every hour?
- [04:44]
Every hour you need Valium or a drink or. I don't know.
- [04:47]
Or not.
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Look, that too.
- [04:49]
So.
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So is that what you suggest? I mean, this week the market dropped 10% on Trump's tariffs, rallied 9%. We are back down 5%. I think at the time we're talking. Is this a relief rally that we're going to settle into, or is this more of a bear market? What is going on?
- [05:09]
I don't know if it's a bear market yet. In normal times, markets have many variables. You know, PE earnings, you know, maybe there's some news about OPEC. It's multifaceted. Every now and then. 08 Covid now it all gets boiled down to one thing. And the one thing right now is what's going to happen with trade. And people are trading headlines because they're petrified there'll be a trade war and therefore a recession. And then when they have news that says maybe there won't be a trade war, they get euphoric. It's going to be like this for a while.
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So big swings.
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Volatility is here. I wish I could say make volatility your friend, because I personally don't really know how to do that. Some people do. It's here. You're just going to have to tolerate it for a while.
- [05:58]
Well, the vix, the sort of fear index, has been up for a while. PEs have been high, multiples have been high. There's been a lot of warning signs flashing across the market for a while now, even before all the tweets on tariffs and announcements on tariffs. Do you think even if we didn't have all this tariff drama, we were bound for a correction anyway?
- [06:21]
No, I don't think we were bound for a correction at all. I'm actually, generally speaking, pretty positive on the US economy. I think the US economy is more dynamic than it's been certainly in my lifetime. And so the long term is very good. But this is certainly a wrinkle.
- [06:40]
I mean, historically, we've had a correction every couple of years anyway. So, of course, 10%, you know, every.
- [06:46]
Now and then, you get somebody at some interview who says, you know, generally it's like Tommy Lee, he'll say something like, on a day when the market goes down, well, it's a correction, it's healthy. And my response to that is, I don't need to be so healthy.
- [07:03]
I mean, do you think that the market was sick?
- [07:06]
No, for all of this, I don't think it was sick before this at all.
- [07:09]
So you have said that you thought if tariffs continued, we'd be in a global recession. They have paused for 90 days now. Do you still think that?
- [07:18]
I think there's a lot more going on here than just, you know, tariffs, trade, war. And I think to understand that, you need to go back to the 90s. President Clinton, we had President Clinton, and President Clinton ushered in nafta, and he brought in China into the world trading system. And he did so. He made two arguments. His argument, number one, was that improving global trade along those lines would accelerate GDP growth and it would create jobs. And he was 100% right on the former, and he was 1,000% wrong on the latter. After the big short movie, I got this really great speaking gig. I traveled all over the country, different universities, places, conferences. I saw parts of the country I really had never seen before. If you go to a university town, generally you fly into some airport and you have to drive for an hour, an hour and a half, and you go through the towns of America. What you see in the south, the Midwest, is not only did people lose their jobs, they lost their communities. I think what President Trump is arguing, and you can disagree or agree, I have great sympathy for it, is that we really screwed a whole half the country because of free trade. Now, it ushered in an enormous bull market with some fits and starts, but generally, since 1994, it's been a tremendous bull market where people like me and others of my socioeconomic class have made a lot of money, but the other half of the country got obliterated. And we didn't even retrain these people. We said, you're on your own. Go learn how to code. And they didn't learn how to code. So I think he's trying to achieve two things. He's trying to improve the terms of trade, and he's trying to bring back a lot of jobs to the United States. Now, how do you do that? I'll tell you. You don't do that. The way you don't do that is convene meeting of the G7 and say, hey, guys, the United States needs to change the terms of trade, because it's not fear. Will you help me out? They'll laugh at you. The only way to change the terms of trade is to put a bazooka to people's heads. And once you put a bazooka to people's heads, people start negotiating. The other thing that I think is often missing from conversations that you see on podcasts and television is that the United States is in the best possible position of Any country to change the terms of trade. Hard stop. Because the percentage of US GDP that comes from exports is only 11%. That's about the lowest number in the world. If you look at a region by region, country by country, if you were to Google China and say, ask Google or Perplexity or Gemini and ask what percentage of China's GDP comes from export, you'd get 19%. And that number is not right because so much of China's exports get routed to Vietnam and Cambodia, et cetera, and then come overseas. My guess is that number is probably closer to 30%. Europe. Every significant country in Europe is in excess of 30% with the exception of Germany, which is over 40. Mexico and Canada are both. 35% of their GDP is from exports. And of that 35%, 25 of that 35 is pure exports to the United States. So my hope is simply that the US in terms of who's in the best position to negotiate, the US Is in the best possible position because the number is so low and everybody else's number is so high and they all need, they no need access to our consumer. I mean, Mercedes Benz, you think Mercedes Benz can survive by not selling any cards in the United States? I don't think so. If everybody's rational, and believe me, that is a big if, people will come to the United States and they'll negotiate. Now, I have a very good friend who runs a hotel in D.C. and by chance I was speaking to him this weekend and he said what he's hearing from all the other managers of hotels, because they all know each other, is that the hotels of D.C. are packed with people from countries looking to negotiate with the Trump administration as we speak. Like I said, if everybody's rational, everybody will try and cut as good a deal as they possibly can. Now, not everybody is always rational, as we know.
- [12:02]
Is China rational?
- [12:03]
We're going to come to that in a second. But politicians have to get reelected. They may feel like if they cut too good a deal, they get thrown out of office. So I can handicap this. China, I think, is a different animal. I'm not sure what the administration's motivation here is. I think perhaps they would take it either way. If they could negotiate a good deal with China, they would. They have to leave the tariffs on and basically cut China off in the United States, they'll do that, too. So you may have a situation where everybody but China cuts the deal. That's possible.
- [12:41]
And in that case, are we still going to be okay? You said on cnbc, I think we will be okay. I mean, you were short everything in 08. You said you're long only now. How long is long? In other words, how long do you think this bear market vibe session could last? Is going to last a couple months. That's it.
- [13:07]
Well, they'll negotiate. You know, they'll either negotiate or they won't negotiate. It's not going to take, I think, more than a couple of months to be very clear of what direction this is going in.
- [13:14]
Okay, let's talk about an underlying issue here that you've talked about before. It was cool. I did an episode this week about the theory that tariffs weren't about a trade war, they were about a yield war. That a crash in the market would mean people would essentially flock to bonds and yields would drop and that would help the government refinance the $9 trillion of debt over.
- [13:35]
Yeah, it's a good conspiracy theory.
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Do you think it's a conspiracy theory or do you think that's what's going on? Because yields haven't dropped.
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Yields haven't dropped.
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So it's weird what's going on.
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Every now and then you get into an environment where people in the bond market start to question the reserve status of the dollar. And so you get these short term periods where the dollar sells off or yields go up because people are selling the bond, which is basically the same thing. And I think we're in a little bit of that right now. And that's why I think yields haven't dropped. I don't think that's a long term problem, though.
- [14:14]
So you think yields will go down with the.
- [14:16]
Well, if we have a recession, it will definitely.
- [14:19]
Do you think it's also potentially people are covering the losses from the market by selling bonds.
- [14:27]
I mean, I don't know where hedge funds stand right now. Yesterday was so crazy. Clearly there were a lot of people over their skis and they were just covering like crazy. But I can't answer that question. I don't know.
- [14:41]
So rates will go down. Sounds like that's inevitable. We don't know when the president thinks he controls the Fed. He does not. But he can sort of force the hand and put pressure on it. You said on your podcast that if the goal is for rates to go down, then perhaps looking at investing in assets that benefit from lower rates like homebuilders or real estate could be a move. How is that view complicated by rates not cooperating?
- [15:10]
I think the rate story is more short term, so eventually they'll come down. The problem with making a Bet on home builders. And I have a little bit of a bet myself. But the problem with making a bigger bet is that if, let's say tomorrow, hypothetically, every country reaches a deal and the economy is fine again, rates aren't going to go down and there goes your home builder trade. Everything is just so binary related to the macro that the only thing I would tell people, and this is what I've done myself, is you should de risk, you should sell. You don't go crazy because if you sell everything, you're paying taxes. But if there's something in your portfolio that you've kept but you're not that crazy about, sell it. If you think you can afford to pay taxes and lighten up so you'll have some cash so you could sleep at night, do that. But I wouldn't do anything draconian.
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Sell it at a loss, sell it at a gain. You say pay taxes.
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If you could afford to pay the taxes, you should sell some and just pay the taxes. But I wouldn't do anything big.
- [16:18]
Well, you said you're long for a few months, presumably when we get more clarity on tariffs. And then what happens after that? Are you sure?
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Well, I have some cash and hopefully things get better and I'll buy some stuff.
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But wouldn't you buy stuff when things are not better? When they're.
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Well, like I said, it's so binary. You know, the tariff situation could go the wrong way and then everything you bought will go down. So, you know, this is such a binary one dimensional market, it's very difficult to handicap. What I'm telling people is don't be a hero.
- [16:51]
So take a pause. I mean when any cuckoo crazy stuff goes on, it's better to take a pause, go through a breakup, you have a market issue. Nobody regrets a pause.
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Right.
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Ray Dalio warning about a sovereign debt crisis in the midst of all this. Do you buy that argument? What's the probability?
- [17:12]
Not even a little bit. I just don't. I think the entire the deficit is too big. The de dollarization, everybody's going to sell their Treasuries, it's Armageddon. Cats and dogs are going to lie down together. It's the end of the world story, has been told on and off by people for 40 years. What I think people miss about when they talk about sovereign debt crisis stuff is that the entire global financial system runs on treasuries, period. Banks do overnight repos, which is where they lend to each other overnight. They do it in Treasuries, sovereign wealth funds park the money. They do it in Treasuries. There is no alternative. And the reason why there is no alternative is there's no other asset class that is anywhere close to as liquid or is safe. So if the Chinese bond market was a much bigger and better market, or crypto was 1000 times bigger than it is today, we could have a discussion. Until then, it's just short term generations as far as I'm concerned.
- [18:23]
So the probability you'd assign to a US debt crisis in the next five or 10 years is zero.
- [18:28]
I don't know about zero. You know, a lot of things happen in five to 10 years, but right as low as. It's not something I worry about. I just don't worry about it.
- [18:36]
So do you think Ray needs a hug?
- [18:40]
I think he needs a hug. He does. He needs a little bit of a hug.
- [18:44]
Nicole Lapin
I mean, when we talk about this.
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Steve Eisman
Number, though, Steve, 9 trillion in treasuries is a lot to finance. Is that scary?
- [18:52]
The economy is a lot bigger. They were saying the same thing when it was 1 trillion. It's just a number. I just don't think it's an issue.
- [19:00]
So that number doesn't scare you more than subprime mortgages did in 07?
- [19:04]
No, subprime mortgage scared me to death. This does not scare me that much.
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Does anything scare you right now?
- [19:12]
Yeah. What scares me is the potential for a trade war. That scares me. I wouldn't put that as a zero probability yet. President Trump is playing high stakes poker right now.
- [19:23]
Do you think he's just gonna say psych? Just kidding. That's what's.
- [19:28]
No, I don't think he's gonna say psych. Just kidding. You could like President Trump, you could dislike President Trump. I'm not making a political pitch here, but I think one thing that is extremely admirable about him is that he's one of the few politicians I've ever seen where he actually goes out and does what he told you he was gonna do. He campaigned on this. This is what he, you know, everybody shot up. He told you he was going to do it and he did it. And everybody's like, I can't believe he did it. I said, what do you mean? This is not like when President Bush got elected the second time, or was the first time, I can't remember which one it was. And then. And they immediately tried to change Social Security and everybody said, what do you mean trying to change Social Security? You didn't mention this on the campaign. This was front and center throughout the campaign. So I don't understand why people are shocked. I guess they just. I think part of the issue that people have is everybody that we know took econ 101. And in econ 101, they all taught you that free trade is good, tariffs are bad, trade wars are terrible. And they showed it to you with graphs and tables and pictures, and it's all very, very convincing and mostly right. Except what they didn't tell you is that free trade can obliterate industries. When you took Econ 101, they made it sound like if you divide the world between guns and butter, one country should produce all guns and the other country should produce all butter, and everybody would be better off. And whether it was never discussed was. Yeah, but what happens to all the people who are making butter who lose their jobs? They make it sound like they're all going to get a job making guns. That's not how it works. All these people lost their jobs, and a lot of them are on welfare, and nobody ever offered them an opportunity to retrain. So it got very ugly.
- [21:29]
Well, I'm glad that you mentioned that. He did campaign on this. We knew this. This wasn't a surprise. I think the. The thing people are most concerned about is the extent with which he did it. Right. This wasn't a scalpel. This was a hatchet.
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There's a bazooka.
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Bazooka, yeah. People thought there would be tariffs, just not this aggressive, that fair.
- [21:53]
I think it's this. Yes, I agree. But I think if you take a step back again and ask yourself, if you want to change the terms of trade, how are you going to do that? You can't be nice. You got to be mean. You got to be tough. And then given the fact that only 11% of our GDP is from exports. Let's talk.
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Don't have much to lose.
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It's not that you have much to lose. You have something to lose. You have less to lose than everybody else.
- [22:23]
Nicole Lapin
Hold onto your wallets.
- [22:25]
Steve Eisman
Money rehab will be right back. And now for some more money rehab. So we opened the door, Steve, up to a little 2008 discussion. Some reporters are out there.
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Nicole Lapin
I'm sure you've seen them all compared.
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Steve Eisman
They're all calling me. They're basically saying, please.
- [22:47]
Well, thanks for answering.
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Predict the end of the world again. And I'm like, dude, I. I've been there before. I'm not predicting again if I don't believe in it.
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So you don't?
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I don't.
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So what? In what ways do you Think that this moment is similar or dissimilar to.
- [23:03]
Oh, the difference between then and now is now you have a. Let's, let's make a worst case scenario. There's a trade war of some undetermined dimension and it causes a global recession. That to me is the worst case scenario for here. The worst case scenario in 08 was the end of everything. There's a big difference. Let's take an example. If General Motors tomorrow went bankrupt, let's just say hypothetical, what would happen? Everybody who works at General Motors would lose their jobs and the government did not bail them out. Let's say worst case scenario for GM got liquidated, General Motors goes bankrupt, its employees lose their jobs. A lot of the companies who supply things to General Motors would have to lay people off. Some of them would go out of business for that part of the industry, of the economy, that would be very bad. And how much of an impact it would have on the entire economy of the United States. I can't dimension it, but it maybe would cause a recession. Maybe, I don't know. When J.P. morgan goes down, planet Earth burns hard. Stop. It's the end. People can't get their money, but nobody trades stocks. Things stop. I had in after a while, I had talking to a friend of mine who ran a small chemical company in New Jersey and I said to him when it was over, I said, what was 08 like for you? And he said, well, he said the first nine months of 08 were good and then things stopped. I said, you mean like things slowed down? He said, no, things stopped, nothing moved. And that's because people were worried about the money they had in the bank. When you're worried about the money that you have in the bank, things stop. When there's a global trade war, there's a recession, it's a whole other dimension.
- [25:15]
Yeah, you're mourning paper losses in this case. And back then you were worried about getting anything out, Anything.
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Right. You were worried that things were going to go to zero.
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Now we're just like, oh well, my portfolio isn't up 20%. It's, I've lost money down 10%. Right, yeah, which sucks.
- [25:35]
David Portnoy, for example, was, was upset over the weekend. I think that he was down $7 million. He was down $7 million from 100. Nobody likes the come down. But there's a difference between, you know, going from 100 million to 93 million versus going to 100 million and worrying that your 100 million is gone.
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Yeah, but I don't even know, if Dave's 7 million was some paper gain that he rejoiced and he thought he had, like, did he actually lose money? Right. The most important market, you look at.
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Your portfolio and it's lower and you feel bad. I mean, that's. That's how we all react.
- [26:18]
Yeah, but it, you know, mourning paper losses, rejoicing paper gains is. Is a tricky business to be in.
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Absolutely.
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So in 08, the crash was about excessive leverage, systemic risk, hiding in plain sight.
- [26:32]
What we're seeing now is not hiding in plain sight.
- [26:35]
Nicole Lapin
Well, one of the reasons you were.
- [26:36]
Steve Eisman
Able to see what no one else did in 08 is you were looking at these primary sources. Right. You were going to Phoenix, you were going to Miami. You were seeing this stuff with your own eyes. You were looking past the headlines. And was Twitter around then? Twitter was around then. You were looking past, presumably. I don't know if you were looking at tweets.
- [26:51]
I was not on Twitter.
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Nicole Lapin
But the usual talking points.
- [26:54]
Steve Eisman
And that's harder to do now, especially when everybody, you know, with a TikTok account can call themselves a financial advisor because they stayed at a Holiday Inn once. So where would you tell new retail investors to go to assess an investment opportunity?
- [27:10]
Well, the first thing I would say to people is that the statement that I'm looking for an information edge is overrated. And what I mean by that is, you know, people think that in 07 and 08 that I had access to information other people did not have, and that's just not true. You know, the big. The biggest data source that I had was from Moody's, where the securitization. Securitizations report. Every single securitization reports all its credit data every single month. That was the bible. That piece of information that came out every month during two days a month, in the middle of the month was more important than anything else because those were hard numbers and they couldn't be faked. And I viewed that data very, very negatively. And it kept reinforcing the other research that I did. But other people who looked at the same data came to conclusions that, well, it's bad, but it'll get better. So information is important. It's the interpretation of the information, I think, that is more important.
- [28:25]
So what are you looking at now? Are you still looking at Moody's?
- [28:28]
Once I look at the Moody's data. But there isn't a credit issue in the United States at this point. If there's a recession, see the difference between then and now in terms of credit Data was there, leverage got so high and so many bad loans were made that the credit data deteriorated before there was a recession, which is unusual. Usually what happens is there's a recession, people get laid off, and then the data gets bad. So right now, if you were to do a deep dive in the credit data, you would see delinquencies are up some, it's no calamity, it's within the normal bounds. And if you talk to all the banks, they basically say the same thing. Now, if there's a global trade war and then there's a global recession, the data will get better. But that's almost tautological.
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Do you think there is an issue with the housing market?
- [29:22]
Not even a little bit in terms of credit. I don't think a subprime mortgage loan has been made in the United States since 2007. Not one. I mean, I may be exaggerating a little bit, but basically there are no subprime mortgage loans made in the United States. The issue with the housing market is that it's locked. And the reason why it's locked is that during COVID because rates went to zero, anybody with a pulse refinanced their mortgage at 3%.
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And why would they give that up?
- [29:56]
Exactly. And so if you're going to buy someone's home today, you're paying six and a half seven. One thing I learned in first grade is that six and a half seven is a lot more than three. In fact, it's more than twice as much. And so it's very hard to get. That's why existing home sales are some more abundant. And the new homes are doing very well for a while. And the big home builders were giving people incentives. They were buying down people's rates. And that helped a lot. But that seems to have run a lot of its course. So even new home sales are kind of just flattish. The only thing that's going to get the housing market really going again is either time, a lot of time, or rates have to come down. I think mortgage rates have to get to five, something like that.
- [30:52]
I mean, people think that they're going to get back to three, though. And I think that it's important things.
- [30:58]
Get back to three. That would be very bad for everybody.
- [31:01]
Right? Okay, so can you unpack that? Because we had unnaturally low interest rates right back in the 80s, there were 20%. You know, it doesn't look six doesn't look that bad. I also learned in first grade that, you know, 20 is a lot more than six, a lot more Than and so, you know, when we had next to nothing, when we had next to zero interest rates, that was because we were facing Armageddon. We were facing the end of the world.
- [31:29]
We were facing the world. We thought, we all thought we were going to die. And we don't want that. We don't want to die. So, you know, for rates to go back to three. Three, God forbid they should go back to three. Because if rates go back to three, we'll have so many other problems. You're not going to be worried about buying a house. You'll be worried about a lot about the things.
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Because these are emergency, extraordinary measures.
- [31:54]
Exactly. So could they get to five, five and a half? Yes. Would that help the housing market? Absolutely. Is everybody with a 3% mortgage that owns a home going to sell their home? No.
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So an inventory problem.
- [32:06]
It's an inventory problem. It will certainly help. How much? We'll see.
- [32:11]
Well, we'll have to watch a 10 year, which is, I think looking at how yields are reacting is a really fascinating part of this whole story.
- [32:19]
I agree near term people are taking a short term view that the whole trade policy puts the dollar at risk. I think that's wrong for the reasons that I went into, but that you can't. Short term trading is short term trading. It'll work itself out eventually.
- [32:37]
So just to clarify, when you say de risk to our listeners who are nervous, maybe even panicking, de risk means scooting more over into fixed income, into U.S. treasuries, right. Or is there something else.
- [32:55]
Into your money market fund and sit and wait. You know, treasury money market fund, which is paying for foreign change, it's not so bad, you know, just park it there, you have to worry about it. And then when, when you feel more comfortable, you buy again.
- [33:11]
So having the dry powder, are you waiting for a 2,000 point drop?
- [33:16]
I'm not waiting for 2,000 point drop. You know, I understand what you're saying. What I am waiting for is resolution, certainty. There some level of certainty about which way this is going to go. Because if, if it resolves well and you've raised some cash, so you missed the first couple of days, big deal. If it resolves well, you're back to a bull market that will probably last years. So what difference does it make? On the other hand, if it resolves poorly, you'll be happy to have had some of that cash.
- [33:48]
Well, when this has happened before, 87 we mentioned in 08 and 2020, the next five years have gone up 100%.
- [33:57]
Correct. But during the interim. It was hell.
- [34:00]
It sucks.
- [34:00]
It was hell.
- [34:01]
It sucks. All right, see, we end our episodes by asking all of our guests for one tip that listeners can take. Straight to the bank.
- [34:09]
Straight to the bank.
- [34:10]
Straight to the banks that still exist, that are still standing. Straight to Jamie Dimon, I'll give a.
- [34:17]
Career tip since your audience skews young, and maybe this will be helpful to them. And this is partly from my own personal experience. So if you go back in time, I graduated law school, I clerked for Federal Judge, which was great. And I went to work for a big corporate law firm and I was utterly miserable. So here's my lesson is that I don't agree with Warren Buffett where he says, pursue your passion. And the reason why I don't agree with it is you could love opera, but if you can't sing, you ain't going to be an opera singer. Pursue your attributes. So what I tell when people come to me for career advice, what I say to them is, try and figure out what are your attributes? What are you naturally good at? Is it math? Is it science? Is it writing? Whatever it is, the career you choose should be the place where you can do that as opposed to being a round peg in a square hole. Foreign.
- [35:27]
Nicole Lapin
Rehab is a production of Money News Network. I'm your host, Nicole Lapin. Money Rehab's executive producer is Morgan Lavoy. Our researcher is Emily Holmes. Do you need some money rehab? And let's be honest, we all do. So email us your money questions moneyrehaboneynewsnetwork.com to potentially have your questions answered on the show or even have a one on one intervention with me. And follow us on Instagramoney News and.
- [35:51]
Steve Eisman
TikTokoneyNewsNetwork for exclusive video content.
- [35:55]
Nicole Lapin
And lastly, thank you. No, seriously, thank you. Thank you for listening and for investing in yourself, which is the most important.
- [36:03]
Steve Eisman
Investment you can make.