← Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets
00:33:37
Loading summary
Transcript107 lines
- [00:00]
Nicole Lapin
I love hosting on Airbnb. It's a great way to bring in some extra cash. But I totally get it that it might sound overwhelming to start or even too complicated if, say you want to put your summer home in Maine on Airbnb but you live full time in San Francisco and you can't go to Maine every time you need to change sheets for your guests or something like that. If thoughts like these have been holding you back, I have great news for you. Airbnb has launched a Co Host Network which is a network of high quality local co hosts with Airbnb experience that can take care of your home and your guests. Co hosts can do what you don't have time for, like managing your reservations, messaging your guests, giving support at the property, or even create your listing for you. I always want to line up a reservation for my house when I'm traveling for work, but sometimes I just don't get around to it because getting ready to travel always feels like a scramble so I don't end up making time to make my house look guest friendly. I guess that's the best way to put it. But I'm matching with a co host so I can still make that extra cash while also making it easy on myself. Find a co host@airbnb.com host. You know, there was this one time before I did my own money rehab when I checked my credit score and I realized I had no idea what it actually meant for my financial future. That's when it hit me. It was time to get serious about my money. We've all had that moment, right? Whether it's saving for something big or finally paying off debt, we all get to a point where we need to make some real money moves. That's where Chime comes in. Chime offers a checking account designed to help you take control of your finances with no monthly fees, no maintenance fees, and fee free overdraft up to $200. With Spot Me, imagine overdrafting and not having to worry about fees piling up. Chime's got you covered. Plus, Chime isn't just a financial tool, it's a community. You can get boosts from friends to temporarily increase your Spot Me limit. And when you help someone out with their own boost, they can return the favor. Friends helping friends make progress. It's that simple. So why not make your fall finances a little greener? Open your Chime account in just two minutes@chime.com MNN. That's chime.com as in money News Network. Chime feels like Progress banking services and debit card provided by the Bancorp NA or Stride Bank NA members. FDIC, SpotMe eligibility requirements and overdraft limits apply. Booths are available to eligible CHIME members enrolled in SpotMe and are subject to monthly limits. Terms and conditions apply. Go to chime.com disclosures for details. I'm Nicole Lapin, the only financial expert you don't need a dictionary to understand. It's time for some Money Rehab.
- [02:37]
Morgan Lavoy
Hey Money Rehabbers. It's Morgan, the producer of the show. And today is the last day of Peter Tuchman's week of guest hosting Money Rehab. Peter Tuchman is a broker on the New York Stock Exchange. He is also a host of one of eminence podcasts called Trade Like Einstein. He's a really sharp thinker in this space and he also has more energy than anyone I've ever met. So if you don't subscribe to his show, please check it out. He's really wonderful. In today's episode, Peter starts by doing what he's done every day this week, which is giving a breakdown of what happened in the financial markets today. He has a really special point of view because he is there in the heart of it on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. So he explains what's moving and shaking in the market today and why he thinks a Santa Claus rally is about to happen, which is a typical sort of upswing in the market that we see around this time of year historically. And then in the second part of his conversation, instead of hearing one of his favorite interviews from the year, you're actually going to hear an interview that he taped today with Dan Ives. Dan is a managing director and senior equity research analyst at wedbush and he is one of the most sought after analysts and specialists on tech. He really has his finger on the pulse in this space. I pay very close attention when he talks and Peter and Dan just have a really fun dynamic. They tape together a lot for Peter's show. So if you love that, definitely subscribe and then next week I will be guest hosting the show. I'm really excited. I'll tell you more about that on Monday. But for now, here's Peter.
- [04:18]
Peter Tuchman
Three, two, one. Hey everybody, it's me, the Einstein of Wall Street. We are here with Trade Like Einstein. I am Peter Tuchman and we're here.
- [04:26]
Dan Ives
On the floor of the New York.
- [04:27]
Peter Tuchman
Stock Exchange in the balcony. History is made in this building every single day. Somebody with my long term experience. I've been here for 137 years. It is My responsibility to help teach you how to navigate this market successfully.
- [04:41]
Dan Ives
Boom. Everybody, it's me, the Einstein of Wall street from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. The ceiling, the floor. The greatest financial institution in the world. We're talking S P6000. What a great week. We are now, amazingly enough. I can't believe it. I'm still back in July, but we are literally two weeks away from the end of 2024, a year that has given us 27% on the S P. It has hit records in the NASDAQ of 20,000. I think we came super, super close, but surely broke through 6,000 on the S P. The Russell trading at record highs and the Dow at 45,000. Right. Pulled back a little bit this week, but that's not that important. We actually had on the day that the market broke 20,000 on the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ 100, I believe broke 20,000. That was a day that we had a record high in Netflix, Amazon, Google, Apple and Meta. Can you imagine that? Not, not 52 week highs, but record highs. So these are real numbers, real money being put to work really. You know, while the valuations seem to be a bit frothy, people are paying them, right? It feels like today's high is tomorrow's low. I mean, that's the way it is. If everybody's been sitting around not wanting to pay top dollar for these stocks and not pay, wanting to pay record highs, well, they've missed the boat. They've missed that whole year. That's why I always say there's no bad time to buy this market. Think about that. We've seen Nvidia. We've seen Nvidia go, you know, go off the charts. Every one of these pullbacks we've seen in 2024 has been a screaming buying opportunity for tech for so many different sectors and stocks on the, on the exchange. So anyway, the last couple of weeks obviously we did a little bit of a flatline here, okay? So look, eight times out of eight, now it's nine times out of nine. When you've had a presidential election cycle, right? You've got a nice rally into the election, a bit of a follow through rally. The couple of days after the election, it's sort of flatline with a slight pullback until November 22nd. Then you see a nice rally into the Black Monday, Black Friday of Thanksgiving. This year we had amazing Amazon and nationally we had the greatest Thanksgiving season of all time. And then a little bit more of a bit of a flat line into Middle, middle December and then Santa Claus rally into the end of the year. That's happened eight times out of eight times within the presidential political cycle. And this time it happened the nighttime. So that was that little bit of a flatline we saw last week until Friday when we had those economic numbers, the payroll numbers that came in that were right in line, if not better than year over year. And the market loved it. And we closed on last Friday, a week ago at record highs across the board in every indices. Then we came in on Monday, we came in on Monday and the market pulled back a little bit because in video the Chinese government attacked Nvidia for monopoly practices. Right? And that took Nvidia down and it took the baby out with the bathwater and it knocked the whole market down. Look, the bears have been sitting in their caves dying and waiting to come out and they've only been able to come out seven times this year. They've been sitting there with their Pepsi slushies and their, and then, and their Doritos dying to come out every time they came out. They came out in April, came out in July, came out in August, came out for small bits of time, maybe a day or two a week. They've been rebuffed by way stronger bullish markets after the fact. And they kept saying I told you so, I told you so. But that never came to fruition. Right? And once again, Monday, Tuesday this week they were saying it one more time like, okay, I told you this is going to happen. Yet it didn't happen because Monday, Wednesday's CPI number came in and it was right in line. 3.3, 3 point read, just what the market expected. And the market rallied and once again closed at record highs. Up 55 handles on Wednesday. Thursday, sort of anemic at best, probably a little bit of a sell off because the PPI number was disappointing. But what did that mean? That was where bad news equals good news. That negative data that came out is what's going to probably give that last bit of powder for the Fed to cut interest rates in next week's meeting. It's a beautiful thing. So that's probably what's probably going to catalyze the Santa Claus rally. That will bring us in at the end of this year over the next two weeks into a record close for 2024. That's how I see it. And you know what? Look, I can, I may be wrong, I've been wrong before. There could be something that throws, completely dislocates this whole story in a big way. But I don't see it happening that way. This week was extraordinary in so many ways. We did have the soon to be President of the United States come down to the floor of the exchange. First president since Bush one that came down and the most notable was Ronald Reagan who came down on March 28th, 1985, which is the first day that the Einstein and Wall street got a job on the floor of the exchange. That was the first day I got down here. And what a day it was. What an amazing time, an amazing life it's been for me. He came down to the floor. Security was absolutely insane. He gave a speech up in the boardroom. Apparently there with the US has these, these reserves of petroleum. You know, we are most of the. Our oil partners throughout the world are not our friends, right? Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia. So we have these petroleum reserves in the hundreds of millions, perhaps hundreds of billions of barrels of oil that we need in gasoline, that we need in case of a confrontation. Well now Mr. Trump announced down here on the floor of the exchange that we are going to create a reserve in bitcoin in the same mindset, right? Besides the fact that he announced that we are going to be the kingdom of crypto now we are going to have a prudent reserve of bitcoin at in the US Basis of the US economy. That's a cool idea, right? So if you're in that name then then that's probably going to give it a little bit of boost. I think it did. It probably took help take it off to a hundred thousand a coin where we live right now. He then did come down to the floor. He did ring the bell. You know, he talked about a number of different things. Tariffs in China, blah, blah, blah. But the people that showed up for him were as extraordinary CEOs of all the biggest brokerage firms, Goldman Sachs and whatnot. You know, Bill Ackman, CEOs of some of the largest hedge funds in the world. Vice president was here. So look, unfortunately I thought it was going to make the market pop, but it did not do that at all. The market kind of faded into the day. And yesterday was that yesterday? That was yesterday. And then today we had a little bit of green on the open because we had some economic data, was reasonable, nothing that exciting. And we closed out the week probably. I don't know net net. I think we were up on the week. We closed down six handles. You know, the Dow, the Dow has been under a lot of pressure. Probably just one or two individual stocks. But where does that leave us. That leaves us with the Fed meeting next week. My gut is it's 88% chance we're going to cut interest rates anyway. I'm out of breath. I got to get out of here. It's been like the longest month for a week I've ever seen. I love you all. Bing bong shots. You have a great weekend. Trade like Einstein. Money News Network. Shout out to my beautiful friend Nicole Lapin, who's on maternity leave, may she give birth to a beautiful, healthy child. And we love you all. And that's all I got to say about that.
- [11:40]
Nicole Lapin
Hold onto your wallets. Money Rehab. We'll be right back. I love hosting on Airbnb. It's a great way to bring in some extra cash. But I totally get it that it might sound overwhelming to start or even too complicated if, say, you want to put your summer home in Maine on Airbnb but you live full time in San Francisco and you can't go to Maine. Mean every time you need to change sheets for your guests or something like that. If thoughts like these have been holding you back, I have great news for you. Airbnb has launched a co host network, which is a network of high quality local co hosts with Airbnb experience that can take care of your home and your guests. Co hosts can do what you don't have time for, like managing your reservations, messaging your guests, giving support at the property, or even create your listing for you. I always want to line up a reservation for my house when I'm traveling for work, but sometimes I just don't get around to it because getting ready to travel always feels like a scramble so I don't end up making time to make my house look guest friendly. I guess that's the best way to put it. But I'm matching with a co host so I can still make that extra cash while also making it easy on myself. Find a co host@airbnb.com host. You know, there was this one time before I did my own money rehab when I checked my credit score and I realized I had no idea what it actually meant for my financial future. That's when it hit me. It was time to get serious about my money. We've all had that moment, right? Whether it's saving for something big or finally paying off debt, we all get to a point where we need to make some real money moves. That's where Chime comes in. Chime offers a checking account designed to help you take control of your finances. With no monthly fees, no maintenance Fees and fee free overdraft up to $200 with Spotmeat. Imagine overdrafting and not having to worry about fees piling up. Chime's got you covered. Plus, Chime isn't just a financial tool, it's a community. You can get boosts from friends to temporarily increase your spot me limit. And when you help someone out with their own boost, they can return the favorite friends. Helping friends make progress. It's that simple. So why not make your fall finances a little greener? Open your Chime account in just 2 minutes@chime.com MNN that's chime.com MNN as in money News Network. Chime feels like progress. Banking services and debit card provided by the Bancorp NA or Stride Bank NA members FDIC SpotMe eligibility requirements and overdraft limits apply. Boosts are available to eligible Chime members enrolled in Spotme and are subject to monthly limits. Terms and conditions app go to chime.com disclosures for details. And now for some more money rehab.
- [14:13]
Morgan Lavoy
Now here's Peter's conversation with Dan Ives.
- [14:17]
Peter Tuchman
Hey everybody, it's me, Deon Center Wall street from the balcony at the New York Stock Exchange. We are sporting, even though he is, as per the New York Post, the best dressed man on Wall Street. We are sporting the same kind of duds. We got cool sneaks. He's got some cool colors. I got my lacrosse thing going on. We got a very cool hoodie. You know why we do this?
- [14:36]
Dan Ives
We want to be accessible to the.
- [14:38]
Peter Tuchman
General public so that we can share with you everything we know about tech, volatility, earnings, the stock market and the New York Stock Exchange. Thank you for joining me today.
- [14:46]
E
Great to be here.
- [14:47]
Peter Tuchman
You are the man. So let's go back yesterday. Obviously, we had Mr. Trump here on the floor, the first president since Bush won. And then obviously the most notable visit was Mr. Reagan. That was the first day I actually worked on Wall street. It was March 28, 1985. And it was wild and crazy here back then that we had 8,000 people on the floor then working here. So you can imagine when the president come and then we had there was as much security because you didn't need that much security back then. Bush won, though. We did do. There was an old prank that used to happen always on the floor of the stock exchange when a celebrity or a dignitary would come down. Somebody when they were engaged in a conversation and overwhelmed by the room, someone would come up behind them and down their shoes with baby powder, right? And everyone on the floor would start banging their feet, saying it's snowing in New York. They would suddenly look down and see baby powder all over their shoes. We even did it to the president. Anyway, yes, it was extraordinary. That was one of our greatest coups. The only one who actually got upset was, I think he was an Italian, someone in the foreign service for Italy. He was wearing purple patent leather velvet shoes and we doused him with baby powder. He was probably never able to wear those shoes again. Anyway, let's get down to business. Yesterday, Mr. Trump was here. He talked about a couple of things. He talked about setting up, you know, that the US has a prudent reserve for petroleum, right. In case of war, in case of any, any kind of a problem. We've got hundreds, hundreds of, I think hundreds of billions of barrels or millions of barrels of oil on reserve in case of a war, in case of a confrontation at some point. Because you all know that a majority of the nations that are oil producing nations are not our friends Venezuela, Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia, the law and Russia, of course, the largest producers. So yesterday he did say that he was going to set up a prudent reserve for bitcoin, right. Which is obviously extraordinary. And I think it's probably given a little bit of the boost to bitcoin.
- [16:38]
E
Since day then microscribes add to NASDAQ 1000.
- [16:42]
Peter Tuchman
Isn't that extraordinary? That came this morning.
- [16:44]
E
Yeah.
- [16:44]
Peter Tuchman
Right. And then yesterday he announced the reserve of bitcoin. What does that mean? That means that the US as a nation, there are 25 million Bitcoin, that he is going to start collecting bitcoin and we're going to hold it on as a nation, as part of our economy. So that should be a cool and.
- [17:00]
E
I think now do more. This is going to be the big question on that ship. Do more public companies, right, start to not as aggressively micro strategy but do they start to put at least a percentage of what they have in treasury, right, from the cash in bitcoin.
- [17:15]
Dan Ives
In bitcoin, Bitcoin.
- [17:16]
Peter Tuchman
So we know like Apple's got hundreds of millions of dollars in cash and a lot of public companies obviously, how do they end up just displaying our earnings or whatever, whatever the word is, I can't giving out earnings is by having cash on hand, some hold cash. That was one of the problems back in the day that everyone was saying why is, why, why is Apple holding so many, almost so much cash, right. Why don't they give some back to the, to the shareholders anyway? Not what we're talking about today. So that's fascinating. So yes, MicroStrategy, Mike Saylor, Mike Saylor's company obviously is one of the largest holders. I think all their holdings are in.
- [17:52]
E
Bitcoin, I mean all. And they continue to raise capital convertible right by Bitcoin. So their view is basically this is really going to become just a full Bitcoin. But my strategy is still data analytics. Like it's, it's a real company. But the way that this company is now being valued is really the Bitcoin derivative.
- [18:15]
Dan Ives
Okay.
- [18:16]
Peter Tuchman
So if you are looking for exposure to the bitcoin game and you don't have $100,000 to buy in a coin, there are other ETFs I believe Beto that trades here on the floor. Obviously Mara is one and obviously MicroStrategy, it's expensive. It's trading for hundreds and 400 bucks I think at your share.
- [18:32]
E
But if you believe Bitcoin, which we believe bitcoin could be 253, go to a million, whatever, then you'll see more and more bet on MicroStrategy as a derivative play.
- [18:45]
Dan Ives
Derivative in terms of play. So that's exciting. Take heed of that.
- [18:49]
Peter Tuchman
Right? That's coming from the man who knows everything about derivative play. We've heard about that as respect to AI and the derivative plays that are respected.
- [18:58]
E
Getting those NASDAQ 20,000 hats, right? I mean the point is like you've been.
- [19:02]
Peter Tuchman
Let's, let's think when we started having this Einstein and Ives conversation, you said two things to me. Get your 20,000 NASDAQ hats out and there's going to be a six in front of the S P by the end of the year. And you have been boom shaka locker right on that. Both of them amazing looking. And I think he's not just another pretty face. Forget about it.
- [19:23]
E
No, but I think it also speaks to like the market now just starting to realize that AI it's just starting to multiply because we always talk about for every dollar spent on video chips, eight to ten dollar multiplier across the rest of tech. Right now you're starting to see some of that in terms of software infrastructure and build outs.
- [19:45]
Peter Tuchman
And that's going to be in the second third derivative of a like other companies give us.
- [19:49]
E
Look, if someone said to you avago, if you get brought abgo, okay, look what that stock's done today.
- [19:57]
Dan Ives
Okay.
- [19:57]
E
So it's showing you that you know this second, third, fourth derivative, it's not just about MAG7 infrastructure about in terms of the chip Equity system in terms of software names like Salesforce, of course, Palantir and others.
- [20:12]
Dan Ives
Right.
- [20:13]
E
And then the consumer AI revolution that goes to Apple, which I believe.
- [20:17]
Peter Tuchman
Right. We're all actually. Right. And didn't they just say they're putting chat BGBT into the ipod?
- [20:22]
E
Exactly. So that that's the first step to ultimately what's going to be hundreds of apps that are built on Apple device that are going to be AI driven.
- [20:33]
Peter Tuchman
So the revolution that Dan has been talking about for months now is actually happening. We are in the midst of it. We started eight months ago in the.
- [20:41]
Dan Ives
Second inning of this game.
- [20:43]
Peter Tuchman
Now we're probably in the third inning.
- [20:45]
E
In terms of the party, it started off at 9pm in that party and now it's 10pm 10pm in a party that goes to 4am okay.
- [20:54]
Peter Tuchman
And I was invited to this party.
- [20:56]
E
Now software Benioff, they were waiting. Their name wasn't on the list.
- [21:01]
Peter Tuchman
Right.
- [21:02]
E
Two weeks ago, without earnings, Velvet wrote they go in now, they're in the dance floor with Jensen. They're on Musk and others Software starting to get invited. So now we're gonna see more and more tech players get invited to that party. And that's how this broader rally continues to spread. And again with Trump in the White House, deregulation, finally, early Christmas or Hanukkah, President Khan out at the ftc. That means more and more deal making is gonna happen. That's why it just continues to be what I view it. We're in the second year of what I view as ultimate five to six year bull market.
- [21:39]
Peter Tuchman
It's so extraordinary. So think about it. When Dan and I were talking a couple of weeks before the election, we were talking about what is the market? How is the. Look, that was everybody's question. How is the market going to respond to a Kamala presidency or a Trump presidency? And obviously, look, I believe that this administration, whether Kamala had anything to do with it or not, has to take full credit for where the market is today. Right. Mr. Trump cannot take any credit for where we are today. Trading at record highs across every indices. Some of the best four years. Right. We know it Covid up 20%, 21 up 28%, 22 down double digits. We know that it was a function of inflation and the interest rate story 23 and 24 now up 27%. So this administration has obviously is responsible for that incredible market across absolutely every indices. But we were talking about what does it look like on either side depending on who wins this election. Your question was that yeah, look, a continuation of the past four years. If that goes forward, if Kamala becomes president, then that's not a bad thing. Our fear was with Trump coming in was obviously tariffs in China. Right. And you said to me initially, we both agreed that that was the wild card that could cause a problem. Go ahead.
- [22:52]
E
But I think to that point, he right away. And again, having money Musk at his side is very important too, because some of that rhetoric now has been toned down to where you'll have tariffs.
- [23:05]
Peter Tuchman
Right.
- [23:05]
E
But in terms of impacting the chip trade, AI revolution, Apple, Tesla, it's not going to happen. And the deregulation is a huge problem. That's because now you look at like from FTC to what we're seeing in terms of, you know, I think across the boundary, that was probably the biggest limiting factor to maybe tech over the coming.
- [23:29]
Peter Tuchman
So just to break that down to somebody who doesn't know really what Dan is talking about, a couple of things. Ftc, the people who are the regulators out here are ousted by Mr. Trump. And you're going to have people more friendly to M and A. So we are going to see a lot more mergers and acquisitions. Number two is by bringing Elon Musk into the inner circle of the Trump family. You are, you are sort of padding. You are, you are, you're padding. You're carving out any potential disaster. Look, you're not going to have Mr. Musk in the inner circle representing Tesla and the other MAG seven are going to now be protected and carve out around those companies because, you know, he's not going to raise himself up in Tesla and let everybody all fall by the wayside by having him in there in the inner circle. That's going to carve out a protection mode for all the rest of the.
- [24:16]
E
Mag 7 and tech and AI as we are autonomous.
- [24:23]
Peter Tuchman
Right, which has not been, not been accepted that. Well, that's been, that's been the wild thing today.
- [24:29]
E
Like, I think I can. Switzerland, like, they just actually, like said, like they actually approved autonomous right now. So what we're. And I'll be in Norway and Scandinavia in a few weeks. Like, the point is, like, you're now going to see around the world autonomous. That's something that's. And I could argue that that continues to be probably the best use case of AI for Tesla. I think autonomous is worth $1 trillion alone.
- [24:55]
Peter Tuchman
So think about it. What was the one thing that took Tesla down to $350 about four weeks ago was the meeting they had about the autonomous Cars that was not received well. They knocked Tesla down $70 at that point and it sat there for three or four weeks. Remember that we talked about it and I said to you, what's going on with Tesla? Is it going to come out, come, come out of this, this, this doldrums. And you said don't worry, earnings are next week. That people are going to get on board with the autonomous vehicle story. And they did. Once again, Dan Ives, number two, number three for Dan Ives. Because earnings did come out, the Stock went up 13 after hours 50 the next day and it's up a hundred dollars since then.
- [25:35]
E
But that's also because the bears. Just because the bears are bear. Because no bears.
- [25:40]
Peter Tuchman
Are there any bears here?
- [25:42]
E
The problem is because the bears wearing their fleece, no sleeves, right.
- [25:46]
Peter Tuchman
They can't full body suits.
- [25:47]
E
They can find AI in the spreadsheet.
- [25:50]
Peter Tuchman
Right.
- [25:50]
E
And I think it just comes down like what's going to happen more and more in tech. You're going to see across all different sub sectors. Street still massively underestimating.
- [26:01]
Peter Tuchman
Right.
- [26:02]
E
What I believe, you know, AI is going to do the fundamentals.
- [26:05]
Peter Tuchman
Okay, so where does that leave us?
- [26:06]
Dan Ives
That leaves us in the midst of.
- [26:08]
Peter Tuchman
A revolution, the second third inning of an amazing ballgame that's all about tech, AI gents, investor breed. It's also you're talking about at 4 o'clock in a party that's going till 10pm and a party that's going till 4am with yet a lot of the derivatives of the AI story. Microsoft, Google, Amazon have yet to be let in through the red ropes.
- [26:28]
E
And there I don't expect at 4am it's a crashing departure because now it's like you're not. The leverage is not in the system. You have 6 trillion of money still.
- [26:39]
Peter Tuchman
In money on the sidelines.
- [26:40]
Dan Ives
Imagine that.
- [26:41]
Peter Tuchman
Still on the.
- [26:42]
E
That's why I'm not a believer. If you go back to dot com, okay, you had the average tech company trading about 30 times revenue.
- [26:51]
Dan Ives
Okay.
- [26:52]
E
Today it's 30 times earnings.
- [26:54]
Peter Tuchman
Right.
- [26:54]
E
I'm just trying to explain like this is what I believe this I'm not. We're gonna definitely have some dips, right? As we knew we've seen like Tokyo black flag. Right, Like Black Monday. You have that five or six times. But the opportunities will be there again. I think we sit here a year from now being like another market year in terms of tech because it's a fourth industrial revolution you're building. You just got back from Dubai, you're building Dubai, Vegas from the Ground up from a technology perspective.
- [27:29]
Peter Tuchman
So look, how exciting is this? It's absolutely unbelievable to think about what Dan is talking about, this amazing revolution. And look at the end of the.
- [27:36]
Dan Ives
Day, I kind of lost my train of thought.
- [27:39]
Peter Tuchman
But look at the end of the day now.
- [27:42]
Dan Ives
Come on, bring it back.
- [27:42]
Peter Tuchman
Pete, where are you? You know what, I'll just keep going.
- [27:46]
E
But it does speak to like, as you were saying, like where we are, like when we're talking about things like Dubai or Vegas. Ground up. It shows the amount of infrastructure, energy, derivative plays and now Khan done at the FT Fuel making work. Sorry.
- [28:07]
Peter Tuchman
Okay, so what I wanted to remember that that's a great part of this story. But at the end of the day, also think about it, this market, if you had seven fingers on your hand, that is the amount of times I'm a member of seven finger hand. Like, like Bruce Almighty. Remember that great scene in, in that funny movie. At the end of the day, we've had seven opportunities this year. Look, this market is up 27% for the year. We've had seven times this year where you've had. Where the major. The mainstream media has called recession, depression, dogs and cats living together, all that craziness.
- [28:39]
Dan Ives
Right.
- [28:39]
Peter Tuchman
We saw it in April, right after the best quarter since 2019. We saw it in July for about a 7% pullback for the first week there. We saw it on August 5, right, which was that devastating day. We came in on a Monday after Black Monday in Japan with all that story, the carry on trade. We've talked about it many times then. September, the first week the worst week for Texans, Covid the second week the best week for tech since COVID October 5th. So that is about six or seven times then. This week we had two days where the market came off its highs last Friday, record highs across all indices. We came in on Monday and Tuesday and we pulled back. Nothing significant. But the mainstream media kept talking about this is it stories over the bubbles here, blah blah, blah. When these were sell offs or pullbacks or consolidations, whatever you want to call them, surely not crashes. We're nothing more than an opportunity. We always say it. If the story has not fundamentally changed at all, take an opportunity. In April when we were down 7% in this market, Nvidia went from 924 down to 700. It happened once again when the earnings came out in March, April, in May and June. We've seen this happen in every pullback. The baby gets thrown out with the bathwater. And if the story hasn't fundamentally changed Take this as an opportunity to buy.
- [29:56]
Dan Ives
Stocks at a discount and you'll see it.
- [29:58]
E
Fed next week they'll cut, then the street will try to parse out. In terms of Powell's words, are they going to continue to cut into next year? Look, the reality is Fed's going to cut 100 bips next 12 to 18 months regardless of when that happens. That is a soft landing engineer. But in those periods you get opportunities.
- [30:18]
Peter Tuchman
And you get opportunities. I love that. Do you think Santa Claus is coming to town?
- [30:21]
E
I think, look, I think Santa Claus coming down and ultimately there's a rally into the next two weeks.
- [30:26]
Dan Ives
Right.
- [30:27]
E
Then you probably go into early next year. A little bit of a pullback, right? Yeah.
- [30:31]
Peter Tuchman
January profit taking. What do you think about this tax credit thing? Like if people are not going to be selling, right, they've got profits in.
- [30:37]
Dan Ives
There in their investments this year.
- [30:39]
Peter Tuchman
Most people, unless you've been trading blind and you're not, you're not making even our man Niall here, right, our filmer here, has made a lot of good money this year. Don't tell the IRS anyway.
- [30:48]
Dan Ives
Yeah, go ahead.
- [30:49]
E
No, but to that point I don't, I mean I don't think you have massive tax because also you have one where like tax cuts are coming, right? Salt's gonna come back, right. And the fundamentals of this market are accelerating. Not so the point is like this is gonna be one of those periods where I think it's actually gonna be like a very strong first half of the year and then maybe some sort of sell offs during the summer. But I think overall you're looking at S&P7, 7500, you heard it here and the NASDAQ we believe sort of 23, 24.
- [31:29]
Dan Ives
That's extraordinary.
- [31:30]
Peter Tuchman
Look, those are amazing numbers. And look, if historic data tells us anything, Dan called these numbers in February 2024 and he's calling them here now. That's what 2025 looks like. Any fears of what could happen within the new administration coming into next year?
- [31:45]
E
I think you'll have fears around China. Tariffs, hawks, Rubio, some others, Navarro, Biden. The reality is that this is they're going to get to a better spot. In other words, you're going to tamp down that aggressive narrative now as you go through it. You'll have some game of high stakes poker. That's what happens in negotiation. I believe Bark will be worse than Biden. I don't think that that, most importantly, that doesn't negatively impact AI track.
- [32:16]
Peter Tuchman
Okay, so think about it. Even though the bears do come out every once in a while. They're sitting in the cave with their Pepsi Slushies and a bag of Doritos. Now there's new organic Doritos. I just found out about that the other day. Go check them out. Organic Doritos. Can you imagine? You think the bears are eating the door organic Doritos or they're straight out old school.
- [32:38]
E
I'm more old school. I'm not sure I'm sold on an organic Doritos.
- [32:43]
Dan Ives
No, it's counterintuitive.
- [32:45]
Peter Tuchman
Doritos are Doritos.
- [32:47]
Dan Ives
It is, right? You just want to eat them and get nauseous.
- [32:50]
Peter Tuchman
Okay, so we're going to wrap this up. It's really a pleasure. We are going to have one more, I hope, before the end of the year. Dan Ives. Einstein and Ives. Trade like Einstein. Money News Network. We are covering in for our friend Nicole Lapin, who's on maternity leave. Ladies and gentlemen, we are in the midst of a revolution. Put your money to work. We have explained this to you on any level. Get your feet in the water and get busy making money, not losing money. Invest in stocks, not stock off. Have a great holiday. That's it, my man. Dan Ives.
- [33:19]
Dan Ives
Giddy up.
- [33:19]
Peter Tuchman
Boom. That's all I got to say about that.
- [34:00]
Nicole Lapin
Money Rehab is a production of Money News Network. I'm your host, Nicole Lapin. Money Rehab's executive producer is Morgan Lavoy. Our researcher is Emily Holmes. Do you need some Money Rehab? And let's be honest, we all do. So email us your money question, money rehab@moneynewsnetwork.com to potentially have your questions answered on the show or even have a one on one intervention with me. And follow us on Instagram @moneynews and TikTok MoneyNews Network for exclusive video content. And lastly, thank you. No, seriously, thank you. Thank you for listening and for investing in yourself, which is the most important investment you can make. I love hosting on Airbnb. It's a great way to bring in some extra cash. But I totally get it that it might sound overwhelming to start or even too complicated if, say, you want to put your summer home in Maine on Airbnb but you live full time in San Francisco and you can't go to Maine every time you need to change sheets for your guests or something like that. If thoughts like these have been holding you back, I have great news for you. Airbnb has launched a co host network which is a network of high quality local co hosts with Airbnb experience that can take care of your home and your guests. Co hosts can do what you don't have time for, like managing your reservations, messaging your guests, giving support at the property, or even create your listing for you. I always want to line up a reservation for my house when I'm traveling for work, but sometimes I just don't get around to it because getting ready to travel always feels like a scramble so I don't end up making time to make my house look guest friendly. I guess that's the best way to put it, but I'm matching with a co host so I can still make that extra cash while also making it easy on myself. Find a co host@airbnb.com host this episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you can save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.