← Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
Hot Take on Interest Rates & Why Trump and the Fed Are Fighting
00:08:13
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- [00:00]
Nicole Lapin
So I just went to the grocery store and I actually flinched at the cost of eggs and I don't even really eat eggs. That's how bad it is. Everything feels more expensive. And so I'm hearing from a lot of money rehabbers right now that their credit cards are getting a lot of exercise right now. But the last thing I want for any of you is to go into credit card debt. Enter Chime Credit Builder Card. This is a secured credit card with no annual fees. You can build credit with money you set aside and avoid interest or expensive debt. Please. Plus you can get access to MyPay and get up to $500 of your pay before payday with no mandatory fees. Start building credit with your everyday purchases and regular on time payments with no annual fees, interest or credit check@chime.com mnn and then when you go to chime.com mnn as in money News Network, you'll start thinking about all the doors that will open once you start building your credit. Like lower rates on loans? Who doesn't want that? Turn your everyday purchases into steps toward your financial goals with Chime Secure Credit. Get started today@chime.com mnn that's chime.com mnn Chime feels like progress. The Chime Credit Builder Visa credit card is issued by the Bancorp Bank NA or Stride Bank NA Spot Me eligibility requirements and overdraft limits apply. Out of network ATM withdrawal and OTC advance fees may apply. Late payment may negatively impact your credit score. Results may vary. MyPay eligibility requirements apply. Credit limits range from 200 to $500. Go to Chime.com disclosures for details.
- [01:27]
Unknown Speaker
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- [01:59]
Nicole Lapin
The only financial expert you don't need a dictionary to understand it's time for some money rehab. Well, the biggest feud on Capitol Hill is not between Pete Hegseth and his own phone. It is between President Trump and Jerome Powell. President Trump has been playing both good cop and bad cop, trying to get Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, to cut interest rates. Trump has called JBAO a loser. He said he can't wait until he was fired. But then just earlier this week, he said he had no intention of firing Jerome Powell. But while the markets and politicians are thirsting for lower rates, let's just take a beat for a second. Should we even want lower rates? On the surface, it's easy to see why lower rates are super sexy. Lower interest rates mean it costs less to borrow money and that affects everything. Right now, the national average credit card EPR is sitting around 28%. That is a brutal, brutal rate. And it's part of why household debt is ballooning. Mortgage rates are still hovering around 7%, which is more than double what they were in 2021. So sure, lower rates will help you pay less for a home, for a car, for your startup loan, and everything in between. And investors eyeing growth and tech also love lower rates. Lower interest rates make future profits more valuable. And Wall street loves that. If you have a 401k, an IRA, or even a self directed brokerage account, you probably love that too. All of this sounds so great, right? So why isn't JPAL jumping to cut? Well, because lower interest rates are not a magic bullet in the overall economy. They are a short term high and they come with some serious, serious long term side effects like inflation. And yes, sure inflation has cooled off a lot since the insane 9.1% peak that we saw in June of 2022. But core inflation, that's the one that strips out food and energy, is still sitting north of 3%. That is a full point above the Fed's target of 2%. So if the Fed cuts rates too soon, it could undo all the work they've done fighting inflation. We've seen this movie before. In the 1970s the Fed tried to bring down inflation but cave early. As a result, we got four recessions in less than a decade. That is not just a bad sequel, that is a horror franchise. Also, the housing story might not be a good one either. Lower interest rates means more people can afford to buy. That means higher demand, which means higher home prices. This happened just a couple of years ago after rates were slashed during COVID Mortgage rates, Remember, dropped below 3%, but home prices shot up by over 40% in just two years. So even if your monthly payment goes down, the price tag on a new house may just shoot up and price you out anyway. The federal debt story is a complicated one too. You've heard me talk a few times on the pod about the theory that President Trump is using tariffs to put negative pressure on the economy so that the Fed lowers interest rates and the US can refinance its $36 trillion debt problem. And yes, lower rates would make that debt a lot cheaper to service. But if the Fed slashes rates too aggressively, it can freak out bond investors who start to worry about the Fed panicking. That fear drives up the cost of borrowing longer term and can shake faith in America's credit worthiness, which is not a vibe. Okay, last problemo, I promise. Lower interest rates also is bad news for savers. Right now we are finally seeing decent rates on high yield savings accounts averaging over 4% nationally. That is great news for retirees and anyone playing it safe. But if rates go down, so do those yields. And with inflation still above 3%, a 1% return on your savings account. Remember, those can actually result in a net loss. That's what economists call a negative real return and what I call robbery. And worst of all, if inflation comes back, they'll have to hike rates yet again. It's kind of this yo yo policy that is exactly what causes recessions. So yeah, bullying drill Powell into cutting interest rates might feel good in the moment, Mr. President. But let us not forget rock bottom interest rates were never ever normal. Low interest rates were a shot in the guard. It was the drug the economy was on in the years after 2008. I remember those years well. We almost saw an apocalypse. Then we became junkies for these low interest rates and then we went to rehab and now we are itching for another fix. But rock bottom interest rates are not normal. They are extreme measures. You don't give a patient morphine just for funsies. It's not a party drug. You do it because there's a serious problem. There's serious pain. Do we want to feel that pain just to get a little high? I don't think so. So stay in Money rehab. Washington Stay in Money Rehab. For today's tip, you can take straight to the bank. I'm budgeting a little extra cash to invest around the time the Fed meets next, which may 6th and 7th. That's the Fed's next opportunity to change the Fed rate or keep it the same. No matter what JPAL decides on, there will be an investment opportunity. If the Fed keeps the rate the same, the stock market will probably react poorly, which is a buying opportunity. From my perspective, keeping a little cash on the sidelines for buying opportunities is also a powerful psychological trick to help you keep calm during market downturns. It helps reframe the whole thing of what could be seen as a negative or stressful moment into a positive one. Money Rehab is a production of Money News Network. I'm your host, Nicole Lapin. Money Rehab's executive producer is Morgan Lavoy. Our researcher is Emily Holmes. Do you need some Money Rehab? And let's be honest, we all do. So email us your money questions moneyrehaboneynewsnetwork.com to potentially have your questions answered on the show or even have a one on one intervention with me. And follow us on Instagram @moneynews and tiktokoneynewsnetwork for exclusive video content. And lastly, thank you. No, seriously, thank you. Thank you for listening and for investing in yourself, which is the most important investment you can make.