← Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
How to Invest During a Crisis: Oil, the Dollar, and What to Do Right Now with Lauren Simmons
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- [00:00]
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- [03:47]
Nicole Lapin
I'm Nicole Lapvin, the only financial expert. You don't need a dictionary to understand it's time for some money Rehab. Oil prices have gone crazy. And yes, of course this is going to affect gas prices, but the impact could spread way beyond what you pay at the pump. It could create a ripple effect across the global economy. You're about to hear a conversation I had with Lauren Simmons. She's a former trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange about where markets are, what's driving this volatility, and what you as an investor should actually be doing about it. But first, a quick primer, because I just want to lay the foundation of what's really at stake before we dive in. As you know, the conflict in Iran is driving up oil prices. When economists talk about the price of oil, you're almost always hearing about Brent crude. There is more than one type of oil, but Brent crude really sets the price for roughly 80% of globally traded oil on the planet. Right now, Brent is high, driven largely by disruptions to shipping through the strait of hormones. Lose how high? Well, Lauren and I talk about that later, but I want to clear up some confusion. You've probably heard that the US Exports more oil than it actually uses. So you might wonder, well, why the heck are gas prices going up if we produce our own oil? But crude oil and gasoline are not the same thing. Crude has to be refined before it becomes anything you can actually use. And here's the problem. The US Produces a lot of light crack crude. But many of our Gulf coast refineries were built to process the heavier crude from other countries. They literally aren't designed for what we're pulling out of, say the ground in Texas, a la Landman. Plus, oil is a globally priced commodity. American consumers are fully exposed to global price swings. No matter how much we produce at home, there is no just use our own oil option. Higher oil doesn't just translate into higher gas prices. It also means shipping gets more expensive too. Travel gets more expensive, life gets more expensive. The oil problem doesn't just affect prices. It also affects the value of the dollar. Sometimes in good ways, others not so much. In the 70s, the US struck a deal with Saudi Arabia where oil would be priced and traded globally in US dollars. Every country that needs oil needs dollars to buy it. That created permanent massive global demand for the dollar. And oil exporters recycled their dollar revenues back into US treasuries, letting the US BoR and maintain reserve currency status for 50 years. So when oil goes up, the US dollar usually strengthens. But the reason isn't as simple as oil up, dollar up. There are a few steps in between. When oil goes up, inflation pressure goes up. Oil feeds into everything, right? Gas, shipping, food, flights. When oil rises, inflation expectations often rise with it. And then when inflation goes up, interest rates go higher, right? The Federal Reserve tends to keep rates elevated to fight inflation. So then higher interest rates, that means stronger dollar. Higher US rates attract global capital. Chasing yield more demand for dollars means the dollar strengthens. That's why the petrodollar agreement is so valuable to the United States. Countries need US dollars to buy oil. When oil prices rise, global demand for dollars can increase just to transact. But that system is now under serious pressure. China is aggressively pushing yuan dominated oil contracts. Saudi Arabia declined to formally renew the petrodollar agreement in 2024. The dollar itself has fallen roughly 4% over the last 12 months. And the first half of 2025 saw the biggest single half decline in over 50 years. A weaker dollar means imported goods just cost more. Inflation lingers and your purchasing power corporate quietly erodes. That means if you have a European vacation to go on, let's say your dollar is just not going to go as far as Lauren and I get into. The value of the dollar has actually been creeping up in recent weeks. But she has some thoughts on whether or not that trend is here to stay. This though is a perfect example of contagion. One economic domino that causes all of them to fall. Think Greece in 2010. One country's debt crisis nearly took down the entire Eurozone or right now economists are watching something similar brew in emerging markets today. Emerging markets like Pakistan and Egypt are net oil importers. Their energy bills are exploding now as oil prices are spiking and their government debt is largely dollar denominated. When their currencies weaken, which happens when the dollar strengthens or oil prices surge, that debt becomes harder to service. If those countries default, US banks and institutional investors holding that debt take massive losses. Then the imf, let's say, steps in, markets get choppy and that turbulence finds its way into your portfolio. That's the world Lauren and I were sitting in when we had this conversation. So we get into it and what you can do not just to protect, but also to advance your portfolio. Lauren Simmons, welcome to Money Rehab.
- [08:52]
Lauren Simmons
I'm so excited to be here, Nicole.
- [08:54]
Nicole Lapin
So excited to have you. And it's such an exciting time in the markets. I know people get so excited, really scared. But, like excited excitement and fear is kind of the same emotion. There's just like a lot of action going on right now.
- [09:08]
Lauren Simmons
There is. And I think that this is a really good time to learn, especially if you are a novice investor, like absorbing how the market is moving and what these big and small things are doing to move the market. And this will help, I honestly think, set you up as you go on your investing journey for life.
- [09:25]
Nicole Lapin
It's such a good point because, you know, the times of recession, and we're obviously not in recession, are times when the greatest wealth can be made. So it's a really, really good opportunity to while it can feel scary and so much of the volatility can rock your portfolio and sometimes you feel like you need a volume, even just checking whatever you have invested, even if you're just a 401k girly, it feels like overwhelming. But these are the eras that wealth is created.
- [09:53]
Lauren Simmons
Absolutely.
- [09:54]
Nicole Lapin
So what are you looking at right now? All the craziness with the war in Iran. What should we be watching?
- [09:59]
Lauren Simmons
Oh, I mean, obviously the overall stock market. But really I think what we should be paying attention to is oil. And specifically when we look at Brent oil prices today, it is at $107 a barrel. And while that might have implications on gas, it has implications on the entire global market. And that's what we should be paying attention to. How is it moving? Is it going to continue to go up? For reference, for what? If people don't know, usually a barrel oil is around or the past 12 months has been around $65. So for it to jump to 65 to now 107, that is going to have large impacts. And even if the war was to stop today, the legs that it's going to continue to have, at least for the next few months to the fall, where we're going to see the fallout from that.
- [10:57]
Nicole Lapin
I'm glad that you put that in perspective too, because when you hear just like in a vacuum that it's above 100 bucks, even my husband, when we were listening to a podcast on this over the weekend, he's like, well, where is it normally? I don't even know. And so it's, it's really good perspective. And when you say Brent, what does that mean? Or what should people be looking at with specific oil prices? Like how should they put all of that into context with the benchmark?
- [11:21]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah, so Brent oil. So there's 2 Brent oil being one of those, Brent crude oil, and that is what sets the prices of oil per barrel. And so right now, yeah, it's at $107.
- [11:34]
Nicole Lapin
You're obviously in this every single day. If somebody is new to this and they're learning, which I so appreciate, you're not a novice and you're helping the novices or the first time investors really become smarter about how all of these elements work together because they do. Oil works in tandem with the dollar. Right. So how are you watching that and what do you do on a daily basis to reposition your portfolio or think about repositioning?
- [12:01]
Lauren Simmons
Oh, I try not to look at it on a daily basis.
- [12:03]
Nicole Lapin
Really?
- [12:04]
Lauren Simmons
Well, yeah, because I think there is obviously in real time there is a lot of noise, but when you are looking at it in real time, you get, you know, hysteric. And you want to make maybe impulsive decisions myself, but I think a lot of investors that are more new, they want to make more impulsive decisions. And you have to, when we're thinking about investing overall, look at the long term, bigger picture. And so what are your goals? What is it that you want to achieve? Yes, we look at the noise, yes, we reposition. If there are catastrophic things that are taking place that I don't mean like, you know, in society, society globally, but in the markets. Like, you obviously don't want to deplete what you have started investing or looking at your 401ks. But I wouldn't on a moment by moment react to every noise that is happening. I mean, realistically, if there wasn't so much volatility in the market, you should be looking at your portfolio on a quarterly basis. But while there are things that are happening in real time, you have to make decisions on what makes the most sense. So if we look for instance at oil, which in general, I think the rule like it's always been a volatile commodity. I think in general, like max, you should have maybe 3 to 5% of your portfolio allocated to oil industry or to energy. Yeah. And it any commodity. Yeah, I would say in general because a lot of them are volatile. But oil specifically like that their history. There's no. Unless you are someone who is investing to time the market and you feel like you're great at doing that.
- [13:46]
Nicole Lapin
No, we're not about that life.
- [13:47]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah. Then. Then there's really no reason to. To have such a larger allocation for that in your portfolio.
- [13:55]
Nicole Lapin
Totally worth. Time in the market beats timing the market every single time, a lot of times and yet never any time. But when you're looking at it just from an investor perspective, like not changing things, I want to see where it's moving every day so I can just be more informed. How do you think about how oil plays in with the dollar?
- [14:18]
Lauren Simmons
So usually when we're in a cr. Right. Or when there's war, the dollar strengthens. And in the last several weeks, and the dollar has been pretty unstable for the past 12 months, but in the last several weeks the dollar has risen about one and a half, 2%. And so we are seeing people having more, putting more money into the US dollar and that is strengthening at the moment, but again for me, as like a long term play at least. And when I say long term, I mean anything over a year. I don't know if I have that much faith in the dollar, at least for right now. And so for me, I look at other asset classes of where I can hedge and protect myself for the next year, two years, and where else I can grow my portfolio for the time being.
- [15:05]
Nicole Lapin
Like, where are you looking? Because the dollar typically in, in times like this, you're absolutely spot on. Like it's considered a safe haven. And during shaky times, people are like, well, the Fed's going to cut interest rates, so the dollar is going to strengthen anyway. But why are you skeptical?
- [15:22]
Lauren Simmons
I'm skeptical because I'm looking at the bigger picture of the last 12 months. We have had a lot of, a lot of large institutional investors that have been pulling money out of the dollar, not seeing it as so much a safe haven and putting money into emerging markets or we're seeing a boom in the last 12 months of a lot of people putting money into gold and silver, myself included. I have actually gone outside the rule of 3% and I've put about 10% of my portfolio into gold and silver. Now gold and silver has taken a hit in the last few weeks because of the war. But where I was when I entered last August, which I believe was around $40, it went as high as 97 and has dropped down to 60. But I'm still, you know, at a gain because of when I entered the market last summer, last fall.
- [16:17]
Nicole Lapin
We don't mourn paper losses around here.
- [16:19]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah. And so I think, and I like looking at the bigger trends like where institutional investors putting their money at and BlackRock, they do a, a weekly market commentary and they said like many where they're positioning themselves right now, a lot of commodities, a lot of emerging markets and not to say again, not financial advice. Take everything that I say with a grain of salt. Do your research. But it is something to, to look to now. The dollar is Treasuries. They are safe and they have, you know, an interest rate right now of around 4%. So it's not a bad play. But when you're looking at what can I, how can I get more bang for my buck? There are other asset classes that you can definitely be looking into.
- [17:05]
Nicole Lapin
So do you think that there's still room to grow with? So if you're investing in gold, like maybe gld, which is the ETF that is going to track gold or what's the silver one? Sl.
- [17:16]
Lauren Simmons
Slv and then, and then ring. Ring is part of my portfolio. Yeah. R I N G ring.
- [17:22]
Nicole Lapin
What does that do?
- [17:23]
Lauren Simmons
It attracts gold as well.
- [17:25]
Nicole Lapin
Oh, I didn't know that.
- [17:26]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah. Yeah.
- [17:28]
Nicole Lapin
Okay.
- [17:29]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah, yeah.
- [17:31]
Nicole Lapin
I'm, I'm into copper these days. But again, do your own research. Yeah, I think there's a lot of room to grow.
- [17:37]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah, absolutely.
- [17:38]
Nicole Lapin
So if somebody is getting into metals for the first time, what, what are good entryways ETFs.
- [17:44]
Lauren Simmons
Obviously. And you want to really, again you want to understand like what your goals are and what your future is because there are a lot of, some have fees associated with them. And so you have to look at the pros and cons. But I will say that would I put. Okay, I guess the question is today would I pick up glt. Yeah. Or slv. Probably not. But that's not, But I, I mean like specifically today because it's been on a decline. So we need to see it, it stabilize. And I think the, where we will see it stabilize, it's probably going to be when this war has ceased, which I honestly don't. I can't imagine that this would Go on for months. But because it's been unstable, because it's been on a decline. Why would you want to put money that you know, at least for the moment isn't as, as safe as it could be. But I do think, yes, if I'm thinking about a longer term play for the next one to two years, it is something that I want to keep adding to my portfolio.
- [18:53]
Nicole Lapin
Dollar cost averaging.
- [18:54]
Lauren Simmons
Yes.
- [18:54]
Nicole Lapin
Little bits at a time because we can never time the market. Right, Right. So from your trading days now, you're a long term investor for yourself. You probably experience putting in the first bit as like the smallest amount to sort of test the waters. Right. So if somebody's thinking about jumping into gold or silver ETF. And a great point to check the expense ratios. ETFs are generally, you know, less expensive than mutual funds. So these are on the lower side. But don't put all your money in there. So like if you had for easy math like $12,000 that you wanted to put in, you wouldn't put all it all right now, you would put like a thousand now and then you would, you know, dollar average of it. And what do you think about bitcoin, which is what some say the digital gold, which is down like 20%.
- [19:46]
Lauren Simmons
I think when I last looked at BlackRock's market commentary, which was Monday the 26th, no, the 23rd. Bitcoin has been the most underperforming asset class out of all of them year to date. So for me, I don't touch it. And listen, I know there will people that will argue me down and saying that I am going to miss out on the future. I miss out on the future. I miss out. It wasn't for me, it wasn't aligned with my financial goals. I have nothing against bitcoin, I honestly don't track it. But to me they're just a little too unstable. They fall too closely to tech. So honestly, if you have exposure in tech, you have tech stocks, you're going to be performing this, I think the same way when it comes to bitcoin.
- [20:36]
Nicole Lapin
Totally. It was supposed to be uncorrelated, damn it.
- [20:39]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah.
- [20:39]
Nicole Lapin
And it's here it is like moving the same way. So you might as well own Nvidia again, do your own research. But like what you're saying is that, you know, it's not a hedge for other asset classes. It's been acting in theory it should be, which would be great. We all want to hedge investments. Like when one goes down, one goes up. Cool. But that's not how crypto has been acting. I have been, I'll get on my soapbox for a second really into the wash sale rule for crypto. Because right now, as you know, the wash sale rule affects securities. So stocks are considered securities but crypto is still considered property. And so you can. Which is what I did. I sold my crypto and I bought it right back. So I lowered my cost basis, which is not allowed in stocks. You have to have a 60 one day, of course, look back and then look forward. You can't do it the day of or 30 days before, 30 days after. Right now this is the rule. It probably is going to change, but you can take that loss. So like if somebody bought it at 100 grand and it's down to 60, you take that 40k loss against 40k of gains as it exists right now. But again those are strategies that are really case specific and not for everybody. Not for you.
- [21:55]
Lauren Simmons
No, not for me.
- [21:56]
Nicole Lapin
I'm out.
- [21:57]
Lauren Simmons
No, no, not touching it.
- [21:59]
Nicole Lapin
I'm sitting that one out. And you've just never been, never, it's never worked for you. You haven't tried. You've not bought bitcoin, not once. Not ever. Not even that one time in college. I'm just kidding.
- [22:11]
Lauren Simmons
But bitcoin became like a thing. When I started on the trading floor and there was a co worker that sat next to me, the men on the floor, because the men were significantly older, they told him that he was crazy. Like why are we buying bitcoin? This is not something to put your money into. You're going to lose it all. And, and I'm pretty sure that coworker is doing just fine in life now, so I will give him that. And obviously the earlier that you are into some of these asset classes or any company is always better. But yeah, for me I, you know, great for people that do it. I love that. For you
- [22:46]
Nicole Lapin
it's totally true. And to clarify, you know, I generally suggest like 1% of your net wor. If you're going to play with it, you can afford to lose 1% of your net worth. But if 1% becomes 100, that's, that's great for them too.
- [23:00]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah, absolutely.
- [23:01]
Nicole Lapin
Do crazy times like this make you miss working in the thick of the action on the floor?
- [23:06]
Lauren Simmons
No, not at all. But it's, I mean it's fun. It's, it's, you know, such a boys club down there. But I do think, and, and it's also a very interesting mindset working, you know, on any exchange floor. I know that you, you used to report down, but play on the floor of the Chicago. Yep, absolutely. They have a different mindset because they've gone through recessions, they've gone through turmoils time after time and time again. So like, to, to, to the men on the floor, it's always very different. Not as much hysteria as everyday people, because they've gone through it. They know how the market moves, they know what could help. They're better at forecasting of like, what is going to come in the, you know, next few months. But the worst thing that I could see happening, inflation rises, feds, cuts rates, things become more expensive.
- [24:01]
Nicole Lapin
But you were alluding to the idea that you're not entirely sure that the dollar will be the safe haven asset. Do you think that's a real possibility? And if so, then who is the safe haven? Do you think oil's not going to be denominated in dollars anymore?
- [24:19]
Lauren Simmons
No, no. Who's, who's putting this in your head so much?
- [24:23]
Nicole Lapin
I like that. So I just have so much anxiety in general, clearly, I mean.
- [24:27]
Lauren Simmons
Well, I think everybody right now is having financial anxiety and it's not just related to the stock market. But what I, but I will say overall that always the key when it comes to investing is making sure that we diversify. Do I think the US Dollar right now is a safe haven? If I'm being honest, no. There's just too much instability for me to feel comfortable. And so I am making sure that I am allocating my portfolio, my investments that are going to hedge, at least for this time. I do think overall, you know, America is amazing. And I think in the long term, yes, the dollar is going to outperform. But right now, and especially as I look at, again, my, my, my North Star is institutional investors and where are they putting their money at? And when I see large institutional investors taking their money out because they don't think it's safe, I'm gonna say that the, the, the guys probably know a little bit of what they're doing. And so with that, I'm not gonna pull all my money out. I'm just gonna make sure that I'm allocating and diversifying accordingly.
- [25:38]
Nicole Lapin
I think a smart way is ETFs. Again, not financial advice. Do your own research. But VX US is one example.
- [25:48]
Lauren Simmons
US is a good one, you know,
- [25:49]
Nicole Lapin
that just is like X us, like minus the US So it's all international exposure.
- [25:54]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah, that's part of my portfolio. And that's a good one to have for sure.
- [25:58]
Nicole Lapin
And what about conflict stocks? So any of the defense stocks or the different oil stocks. I mean think about it. If you are though invested in a broad based based index fund like a VOO voo, then you're already going to have like what some Exxon and, and some other stuff in there. So you're going to have some exposure to oil and defense.
- [26:17]
Lauren Simmons
And you are. But they, they only make up a small percentage what 3 to 5%. And even like the S P 500, like it doesn't. Because the S P 500. Right. Like the, the, their exposure to oil I want to say is 3.5% because it is a volatile commodities. So it's not like that's, that's a large percentage of most people's portfolio. But if you are a believer in the commodity, you could always look at xle. XLE is the benchmark when it comes to energy stocks overall. And if you are someone who is a stock picker, which I, I do ETFs and I individually pick stocks. But if we're looking at energy XLE being the benchmark then look at a stock that their history not the last three months because the last three months many energy stocks are going to look great. But that is not enough to, that is not long enough historical data to bring yourself to have a good thesis on the stock. So I would say look at the last year to two years and if it is outperforming xle, go ahead, go ahead and, and pick, pick up that individual stock.
- [27:34]
Nicole Lapin
Is there an easy way to chart? I'm sure you have all the fancy charts and graphs. But is there an easy way to chart against the benchmark? Just any of the finance sites. You could take XLE as the, the baseline and then put something else against it and see what the returns are most people will benchmark against like the S P500 to see where they are in comparison.
- [27:57]
Lauren Simmons
Again, we're talking about strictly energy stocks. So I do look at the S P500. The XLE has actually outperformed the S P500 in the last two years, which is interesting. And then from there picking your individual stocks. But what I also love is making sure like I said, your money working for you. So I like looking at stocks that are going to give me dividends. And so the, the further note, if I was to get into oil or even defense stocks, I'm looking at the stability or I'm looking at the graph of their dividends and what they're paying out is. And if the chart is not going up consistently, if it isn't not stable. I'm, I'm not going to touch that. So that, I think that would be really good advice for people that if they're looking to pick up individual stocks and they're looking to pick up more volatile stocks, like why that would be something that they potentially would add to their portfolio.
- [28:54]
Nicole Lapin
Do you reinvest your dividends? Yes, always.
- [28:57]
Lauren Simmons
Always. Yeah.
- [28:58]
Nicole Lapin
So you do the drip.
- [28:59]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah, yeah. And I, I have it set that way which, you know, makes your, makes your money work for you more. Yeah.
- [29:06]
Nicole Lapin
How should people think about that?
- [29:08]
Lauren Simmons
Well, again, it's, it's going to come down to what your goals are. If you, you don't want to take the rest of your money to, to just automatically reinvest and you want to look at other stocks are like income
- [29:23]
Nicole Lapin
producing, depending on where you are.
- [29:25]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah.
- [29:26]
Nicole Lapin
In your life, your age, all of that, your risk.
- [29:28]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah.
- [29:29]
Nicole Lapin
It's all important to take into consideration. And you know, a lot of young people in particular vote with their dollars and they take into consideration their morals and their values and how they feel about oil or how they feel about defense stocks or private prisons and tobacco and all of. And look at ETFs that strip those things out. So how would you talk to a value driven investor who's like, cool, cool, I want nothing to do with oil or there's options. Right. Like esgv.
- [29:59]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah. I was going to see, say, I think when I first started investing and it was, surprisingly, it wasn't even while I was on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. I really wanted to like learn and absorb as much as I could and made sure that I was financially in a place where I can actually invest in the stock market. So I was having an emergency fund, making sure that my debt was paid off and then really understanding my risk tolerance and again, what my goals are. But once I got that settled and, and what stocks I wanted to invest in, I was really big into ESG investing. I still believe in it partly. But I do realize that there is a lot of greenwashing that is going on within the space. And while you, while I think that we have the intention of having, you know, an ESG mindset when it comes to picking companies and stocks and making sure that they, you know, are ethical and moral and they're putting their money to the right things. You realize that you don't know everything that's going on behind the curtain. And so sometimes you're investing in stocks, you don't realize that they have partnered or have put money towards other Organizations. I think that there's just a lot of gray area in the space that all that to say that was a very long way of saying that. That if you were to ask me 10 years ago. Yes, absolutely. But now it's changed a lot because a lot of I've just been burned in the past with a lot of some companies that I've invested in not realizing where all their money was going to. So you have to look at again, back to your morals and ethics. But I don't think I have as stringent of a, of a test with it anymore because I realize how many companies in the world are all interconnected. That sounds so depressing.
- [32:02]
Nicole Lapin
No, I'm just trying to read between the lines. But yeah, I hear what you're saying. You were more invested in ESG or ESG ETFs or companies that stood by that, and now you've moved a little bit away from that based on research that you've done.
- [32:19]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah. Within the space you have to realize what poison do you want to pick? You kind of just go from there.
- [32:25]
Nicole Lapin
Well, we talked a lot about Iran today, for sure. Are there other sectors or areas that you are bullish in? You know, XLE, as you said, an ETF that tracks energy has beaten the S&P 500. So has SMH semiconductors. What areas are you excited about right now?
- [32:44]
Lauren Simmons
I'm still honestly excited about tech that is not adjacent to AI. And that's more.
- [32:52]
Nicole Lapin
What is that then?
- [32:53]
Lauren Simmons
I'd rather be tied to a tech company that is more involved in defense, more involved in anything but AI. Because I do think that that in
- [33:04]
Nicole Lapin
itself is a bubble, like a Palantir.
- [33:07]
Lauren Simmons
Palantir is a good one. But I don't have Palantir part of my portfolio.
- [33:10]
Nicole Lapin
The circular spending in AI is, is so real. So basically that's, you know, one company like a Microsoft to buying something from Nvidia and then Nvidia then buying something from Microsoft. Where is that revenue actually going? And, and back to each other.
- [33:25]
Lauren Simmons
Back to each other. And when you look at their projections, I think that's what's scary. All the money that has been what has come of it. And also when we're looking at the big picture, the energy that these companies are saying that they have to be able to use, you take a step back and you say, well, do they plan to wipe out an entire country with all the energy that they planning on using? Like when we're thinking about these projections and these forecasts, how are we really materializing the energy use and what does that actually mean for the future? And, and to me there's a really big disconnect there. So I'm just not touching it. But there are some in the space again reputable names that are always going to I think be good. Microsoft is going to be just fine. Right. Nvidia is going to be fine. AMD is going to be just fine. Google's going to be just fine. Again I've named a lot of obviously like top tech stocks but then there are others that I'm not going to name that I, I don't because they've made it there at those, their tagline AI. I don't know what, what the future for them if this is when this is to fall apart, what that actually looks like for them in the future.
- [34:45]
Nicole Lapin
But you think there is an AI bubble?
- [34:47]
Lauren Simmons
Absolutely. Absolutely. You don't?
- [34:50]
Nicole Lapin
I think it's yes and yes and okay, there is and there isn't a bubble. There are bubble like behaviors in a very real technology.
- [35:00]
Lauren Simmons
Okay.
- [35:01]
Nicole Lapin
So I don't think it mirrors the dot com bubble completely.
- [35:06]
Lauren Simmons
Okay.
- [35:06]
Nicole Lapin
Like Goldman Sachs came out and said that we're more in 1997. Right. Than 1999. And so there's like more room to grow over the next couple of years.
- [35:18]
Lauren Simmons
What do you think about the output that they need to, to be able to compute?
- [35:21]
Nicole Lapin
Yeah, they all need compute. Yeah, I know. Yeah. I mean then it's the picks and shovels of like where is the energy coming from? Like the nuclear, the ocean, the sea. I feel like it's the Taylor Swift song was about energy. I'm really convinced by it. The land, the sea, the sky, like that's where energy needs to come from in the future for sure to figure out how to power all of this.
- [35:45]
Lauren Simmons
But do you think it could power as large or even just like the announcement the other day they said that they were getting rid of Sora. Like that was just announced and it, and it was consuming a lot of energy not making anyone any money. And so to keep that on your balance sheet or to keep that as like a project to make I don't know, 10 second videos to get a giggle here or there, like what is that actually doing? And so it's, it's nice in real time. I guess we're seeing like some of these companies cutting back. But again I think that the bigger question I think is the energy and some of these energy projections that they have. So where are they getting? I guess land space that large to be able to have this much in space. We're going up space, we're going north,
- [36:32]
Nicole Lapin
we're going to space, we're going to the oceans. That's where we're going. I actually think it's really positive that they shut down Sora thing.
- [36:40]
Lauren Simmons
No, no, I think it is too like that. Absolutely. It's. No, it's brilliant. But it does give us insight into to AI and, and how they're thinking and how they're going to navigate within
- [36:52]
Nicole Lapin
the space and the amount of energy that it costs just to thank the AI or say please. I mean, I'm still gonna do it because just to, you know, hedge against the AI coming for me. Yeah, I'm always going to be polite to the AI. So sorry for all the energy.
- [37:10]
Lauren Simmons
I' am curious. So with AI, you are definitely a believer or not a believer in AI, but like believing in like tech companies and like their, their second like tagline like AI, you are a real believer within those.
- [37:24]
Nicole Lapin
Not every company is going to work, but I actually don't, I don't think in the same way as we talked about the tech sector like 20 years ago. All companies are tech companies. I think all companies are just going to become AI companies. They're going to integrate it in to the fabric of their company. They have to. But we're gonna see. And yeah, if hits the fan, Lauren, we're gonna have you back and we're gonna be like. You called it.
- [37:48]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah, yeah. Well, we, we have, we have a little bit of time. I don't think that this is going to happen in a year or two years. We, there was a lot of money spent in AI, so I think we have time to see it ride out and to see it implode. I know, but it's not, it's not going to be soon. It's just something to definitely think about in the future, like 10 years down the line and when we' how you're building your wealth and how you're investing. Is that. Are, are these some of the things that you really want to have part of your portfolio?
- [38:17]
Nicole Lapin
Yeah. And I think that's why it's important to like refocus on the picks and shovels of this sort of new gold rush. And what are, what's the underlying infrastructure and where are the energy plays or like the certain materials that are needed, the lithium and the. Whatever needed to power all of it, I think is something to take a look at again.
- [38:37]
Lauren Simmons
Yeah.
- [38:37]
Nicole Lapin
Do your own research.
- [38:39]
Lauren Simmons
Absolutely.
- [38:39]
Nicole Lapin
Lauren, it was such fun to have you here and just talk nerdy for the last hour. We end all of our episodes, as you know, by asking our guests for a final investing tip that listeners can take straight to the bank. You've given us so many already, but is there one final one?
- [38:55]
Lauren Simmons
One final one? This is not necessarily an investing tip, but what I will say is what I tell everyone, you know yourself better than anyone else. If it feels good for you when it comes to how you're investing and what you're choosing to invest, please do not allow other people to convince you otherwise because you actually might be onto something. My goals, my risk tolerance, by the way, is very conservative. So it's going to look a lot different from everyone else. And I think as long as you feel safe in what you're investing in and you're not allocating a hundred percent of your money into your investments and you feel great about it, do it, do it.