← Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
Wall Street News Roundup: Why the BLS Commissioner Was Fired, Why Elon Musk Isn't Getting Paid and Another Boeing Strike
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- [00:00]
Nicole Lapin
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- [01:10]
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- [01:24]
Nicole Lapin
I'm Nicole Lapin, the only financial expert. You don't need a dictionary to understand it' Some money Rehab all right, it is time for a roundup of the biggest stories on Wall street and how they affect you and your wallet. This week is all about jobs jobs numbers, getting fired, strikes and why Elon Musk has not been paid in eight years. Seriously, let's start with losing jobs over jobs numbers. On August 1st, President Trump fired the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eric McInter. On the surface, this sounds like a super niche job that would in no way affect your day to day, but it's actually a big deal. So let's break it down. First off, WTF is bls? The Bureau of Labor Statistics? While the BLS is part of the federal government that collects data on employment and unemployment, inflation and prices, wages and benefits and how Americans spend their time. And they do that for the benefit of studying the economy. They have employees across the country who literally go into grocery stores and record prices. I know that sounds really odd and inefficient, but think about it. If you want to say with certainty that the cost of eggs is up, you need to know exactly what eggs cost today, last week, and the week before that. Otherwise, you're just going off vibes and human memory. And that's not the best way to make policy. The BLS has thousands of people doing different parts of this work and then analyzing the data with context. Because comparing organic free range eggs in Brookly budget eggs in Des Moines isn't exactly apples to apples or eggs to eggs when it comes to the jobs report. Specifically, they gather data in two ways. First, by going door to door and asking people, hello, do you have a job? Literally sounds really weird, but it is real. And second, by surveying businesses about how many people they've hired or fired and collecting info like payroll and hours worked. Then the BLS takes all the raw data and cleans it up. They remove duplicate responses. They adjust for seasonal changes, and then they release a digestible report. They release this report on the first Friday of every month, and they revise the prior two months data based on updated information. Sometimes businesses are slow to respond. Sometimes the math behind seasonal adjustments isn't mathing. Net net. The process is not perfect. And it means that the BLS is constantly updating, refining and improving the accuracy of the data. That's why their first release is labele preliminary. So what happened this time? Well, there were fewer jobs added than were expected last month. Not by a lot, but by a bit. Only 73,000 jobs were added in July. But the bigger story here is that the numbers for May and June were revised down by a combined 258,000 jobs. That is a big deal. The markets did not take this news well, and neither did President Trump. He claimed the numbers were rigged to make him look bad and then fired the BLS commissioner. Now, there is zero evidence that the numbers were manipulated. The BLS is home to more than 2,000 economists and analysts who are nerdy in the best way possible. These are people who have dedicated their careers to collecting boring, unsexy, but vital data. So it's pretty wild to think that they would all conspire to take their own agency's credibility just to embarrass a single guy. Also, the commissioner doesn't even see the numbers until they're finalized. So if you're looking to fire the person who collects the numbers, you need to fire someone else. Now, I will say obviously there is room for improvement in how the BLS is reporting data. The fact that these preliminary numbers are so off, I mean, these numbers are so important and can move markets. I think we can all agree that it's time for a little innovation in how these numbers are reported. This isn't the first time we've had a big revision. Trump said these latest revisions were record setting. They were not. That accolade goes to March of 2020, when jobs numbers were revised by a staggering 679,000. I mean, pandemic will do that. But the BLS data is essential. I use it here on the show. Jerome Powell and the Fed use it to make decisions about interest rates. It is the foundation of economic policy in both the public and private sectors. Economists have long relied on expectations that these numbers will be very useful, even if they have to wait for revisions. The real question now is, will they stay that way? If Trump can fire someone for reporting numbers that he does not like, will that just breed cherry picking of data moving forward? Honestly, we need more Jerome Powells in the government. An apolitical, unflappable all star. My God, Jay Powell for the win. Now, why did these jobs numbers fall so hard? Some think it is the aftermath of President Trump's trade wars. I'm going to be talking about this in tomorrow's episode with Michael Batnik, who is Josh Brown's co host on the Compound and Friends podcast and also a managing partner at Ritholtz Management. So don't miss it. Meanwhile, Boeing is back in the headlines, but for all the wrong reasons. This time it's workers at their St. Louis defense plant going on strike. I should say that's a different segment of the workforce than last fall's commercial strike. Boeing offered a 40% wage increase over five years, which sounds great. It would have raised pay from 70 grand to $102,000. But the contract was rejected by more than 95% of the workers. These are highly skilled employees working in a plant with above backlog of military contracts. In other words, they've got leverage and they know it. This could be a huge win for workers, but it's a serious headache for Boeing, which has already lost $42 billion since Q2 of 2019. Not to mention all of the mechanical issues that they've been dealing with in the last year. Just a reminder, this was once considered one of the safest blue chip investments out there. Its Stock peaked at 440 bucks in 2019. Today, even in this blazing hot stock market, it's hovering 220 bucks. It serves as a stark reminder that any company can fall from grace. And finally, let's talk about Elon Musk, shall we? Did you know that he has not been paid by Tesla in eight years? It is technically true, which may explain why he's been moonlighting as an owner of every other company. It seems like on Earth, and otherwise. Now, before you light a candle for Elon, let's be clear. He is not hurting for cash. His wealth comes from the Tesla stock he owns and his stock in other companies. He does not take salary because, frankly, what the heck could they pay him that wouldn't be straight? Laughable compared to his net worth. Instead, Musk's pay comes entirely in the form of stock options. No salary. In 2018, Tesla offered Musk a pay package that was widely considered delusional. It sets dozens of targets for increasing valuation and profits. Each of the valuation goals were set in $50 billion. Incre at the very top of the pack was the goal of 650 billion. At that valuation, Musk would receive options for 1.68 million shares. If he also got the max profit goals, if he didn't meet the final target, he would get nothing. At the time, the New York Times reported on the pack as jaw dropping and radical. But not only did Musk accept the package, he also hit the target. He did it. But in an unexpected twist, a judge in Delaware blocked the pay package, saying it wasn't fair to shareholders. That decision sparked Tesla's move to Texas. But even with the move, they could not just hand him over those shares. It would trigger an accounting and tax nightmare. So Musk has officially been unpaid since his last performance award in 2017. You may have heard my episode about this. Back when Tesla shareholders were voting on Elon's pay package, I said that he should get it. After all, he was given a target and promised a bonus. He hit the target and he should get the bonus. End of story. In my opinion, Tesla and Musk believe that they have finally come up with a workable Solution. The resulting $29 billion payday of 96 million shares hinges on him giving up the old litigated pay package and staying at Tesla for the next two years. It is not a bad paycheck for 10 years of work. For today's tip, you can take straight to the bank. If you're planning a big money move, like negotiating a raise, changing jobs, or shifting your portfolio, don't just react to the first Friday jobs report, wait for the revisions. The BLS breaks down jobs growth by industry. If, let's say healthcare keeps getting upward revisions and retail keeps getting cut, that tells you something about where jobs are headed, about where demand is going and yeah, about where to put your money. It's not about being first, it's about being right. And sometimes that means waiting for the second draft. Money Rehab is a production of Money News Network. I'm your host, Nicole Lapin. Money Rehab's executive producer is Morgan Lavoy. Our researcher is Emily Holmes. Do you need some money Rehab? And let's be honest, we all do. So email us your money questions moneyrehaboneynewsnetwork.com to potentially have your questions answered on the show or even have a one on one intervention with me. And follow us on Instagram at Money News and TikTokoneyNewsNetwork for exclusive video content. And lastly, thank you. No, seriously, thank you. Thank you for listening and for investing in yourself, which is the most important investment you can make.