Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
Episode: Who Is Winning the Trade War? With Michael Batnik (Ritholtz Wealth Management)
Release Date: August 7, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin, host Nicole Lapin welcomes Michael Batnik, managing partner at Ritholtz Wealth Management and co-host of the Compound and Friends podcast. Joining them is Josh Brown, a Money Rehab favorite and co-host, who delves into the current state of the markets, economic indicators, and the ongoing trade war. This episode provides listeners with insightful discussions, expert opinions, and practical investing tips.

Market Pulse Check

Overview of Current Market Sentiment

The conversation begins with an assessment of the current market conditions. Josh Brown emphasizes the excitement surrounding the stock market, noting that it's "a shred below the all-time high that has ever been printed in the history of the galaxy" (05:27). However, he also points out the potential risks associated with continuous market highs and speculative investments.

Notable Quote:

"If you were to invest at an all-time high, on average one year later, one, three, and five years later, in fact the returns are higher than on average for investing at any other random day."
— Josh Brown 07:28

Employment Data and Economic Indicators

Downward Revisions of Job Reports

The discussion shifts to recent employment data, highlighting significant downward revisions in job numbers for May and June. Josh Brown expresses concern over the credibility of these revisions but reassures listeners that such adjustments are part of the economic data collection process.

Notable Quote:

"Revisions are nothing new."
— Josh Brown 16:55

Impact on Market Perception

These revisions have led to debates about the health of the economy and the reliability of economic indicators. The conversation touches upon the recent dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner by President Trump, adding a political dimension to the economic discourse.

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates

Potential for Rate Cuts

The panel discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady and speculates on whether economic indicators might prompt further rate cuts. Josh Brown advocates for lower rates, citing the stalled housing market as a critical factor that could benefit from reduced rates.

Notable Quote:

"I think the Fed should be cutting."
— Josh Brown 19:13

Impact on Housing and Economy

Lowering interest rates could stimulate the housing market, which is currently "absolutely frozen" with existing home sales languishing. This stagnation has broader implications for consumer spending and overall economic growth.

Trade War Discussion

Status of Trump Tariffs

The episode delves into the ongoing trade war initiated by President Trump, examining whether tariffs are still in play and who stands to benefit. Josh Brown expresses fatigue over the constant discourse on tariffs, suggesting that the market is moving past these concerns as long as major companies like Microsoft and Amazon continue to drive earnings.

Notable Quote:

"The market's really expensive too. So what would you say to somebody who's waiting with their shackles on the sidelines for something to go on sale again?"
— Michael Batnik 09:03

Market's Perspective

Despite the uncertainties, the market appears to focus more on the performance of tech giants rather than the broader implications of tariffs. Josh Brown notes that while tariffs significantly impact small businesses, the major contributors to market earnings remain largely unaffected.

Stock Analysis

Highlighted Stocks: Palantir, Broadcom, Pfizer, and More

The panel engages in a detailed analysis of various stocks, assessing their current performance and future potential. Palantir is scrutinized for its rapid growth and high market valuation, while Broadcom and ServiceNow are discussed as strong performers within the tech sector.

Bullish or Bearish Segment

In a segment titled "Bullish or Bearish," Michael Batnik and Josh Brown evaluate specific stocks, providing their opinions on whether to buy or sell based on technical and fundamental analysis.

Notable Quotes:

"I would not buy it here and I definitely wouldn't short it here."
— Josh Brown on Palantir 32:35

"I love that. I love that. Yeah, Josh is a big proponent of that, and I think it's a great approach."
— Michael Batnik on Limit Orders 10:34

Key Takeaways:

• Palantir: Despite impressive revenue growth, its stock is deemed "super extended," suggesting caution.
• Rocket Mortgage (RKT): Identified as a "winner" with potential for breakout due to anticipated interest rate cuts.
• Chipotle: Viewed negatively due to increased competition and high pricing, leading to expectations that the stock won't reach new highs.
• IMAX: Considered a solid investment due to its unique market position and strong sales performance.

Investing Strategies and Tips

Automate Your Investments

Josh Brown stresses the importance of automating investments to mitigate emotional decision-making. By setting up automatic contributions, investors can ensure consistent growth without being swayed by market volatility.

Notable Quote:

"Automate, automate, automate, because I get scared like everybody else."
— Josh Brown 09:03

Utilize Credit Card Points Wisely

Hoarding credit card points is discouraged. Instead, using them promptly can prevent loss of value over time and maximize their benefits.

Notable Quote:

"Credit card points... you they the value to 6 degrees over time. Do not hoard your hoard your points."
— Josh Brown 48:13

Assertive Financial Moves

Listeners are encouraged to be proactive in their financial decisions. "If you don't ask, you don't get," reminds women to confidently seek opportunities and benefits.

Notable Quote:

"Have a little bit of what we call in the South Shore chutzpah. If you don't ask, you don't get."
— Josh Brown 48:44

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with actionable advice for investors, emphasizing automation, prudent use of credit rewards, and proactive financial planning. Nicole Lapin reiterates the importance of taking control of one's financial future and invites listeners to engage with the show for personalized financial guidance.

Final Thoughts:

"Investing in yourself is the most important investment you can make."
— Nicole Lapin 39:14

Key Takeaways

• Market Sentiment: While markets are nearing all-time highs with significant investor excitement, caution is advised due to potential market corrections and speculative risks.
• Economic Indicators: Recent downward revisions in job reports raise concerns, but such adjustments are part of normal economic data processes.
• Federal Reserve Policies: Lowering interest rates could revitalize the stagnant housing market, potentially boosting overall economic growth.
• Trade War Impact: The focus remains on major tech companies, with tariffs having a limited impact on their earnings.
• Stock Strategies: Diversify investments, focus on fundamentally strong companies, and employ technical analysis cautiously.
• Investment Tips: Automate investments, utilize credit card rewards effectively, and be assertive in financial decisions.

For more insights and personalized financial advice, listeners are encouraged to reach out to Money Rehab at moneyrehab@moneynewsnetwork.com and follow Money News Network on Instagram and TikTok.