Factchecking claims that 400 churches were burned to the ground in France

Summary

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Episode Overview: Factchecking Claims that 400 Churches Were Burned to the Ground in France

Theme:
This episode of "More or Less," hosted by Tim Harford, dissects viral social media claims that hundreds of churches—specifically 400—have been burned to the ground in France (also allegedly in Canada and the US). Through careful analysis and data investigation, Tim and reporter Lizzie McNeil evaluate the veracity of these numbers, aiming to clarify misinformation about religious persecution and violence against churches.

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Key Discussion Points

1. The Origin of Church Burning Claims on Social Media

• Recurring Pattern: The same "400 churches burned" statistic surfaces repeatedly online, attached to different countries (France, the US, Canada). (01:36)
• Quotes Illustrating the Spread:
  • “People claiming that 400 churches have been burnt down in insert country here.” — Lizzie (01:36)
  • “It does seem very odd that in all of these places it's 400 churches.” — Tim (02:15)

2. France: Investigating the 400 Church Fires

• Viral Map and Source Misinterpretation:
  • After the Notre Dame fire in 2019, a map shared online claimed to show 400+ churches burned in France. In reality, it plotted all crimes at religious sites, not just fires or arson. (03:03)
  • Incidents included burglaries, graffiti, thefts, and minor fires—including incidents unrelated to religious persecution.
• Crunching the Numbers:
  • The French website "christianophorbie" catalogued all incidents at churches, church properties, and even a scout hut. Over nine years, 1,900+ incidents were logged, which breaks down to roughly 200 per year, most not involving fire or arson. (03:22)
• Actual Fires:
  • Lizzie examined every fire in the dataset:
    • Only 120 fire incidents over nine years (04:04)
      • 26 due to electrical faults or candles
      • 2 caused by homeless individuals
      • 25 unknown causes
      • The rest listed as arson, often with minimal damage
    • Only three churches suffered severe damage due to arson; only two were completely "burned to the ground"—far from the figure of 400. (04:34)
  • Quote: “Only three churches have had severe damage due to arson, and only two could be described as having been burnt to the ground.” — Lizzie (04:32)

3. The United States: The Real Story Behind the 400 Figure

• Source and Context:
  • The Family Research Council (FRC), an American evangelical group, recorded 415 "hostile acts" at churches in a recent year. (04:39)
  • The US has about 350,000 congregations; thus, roughly one church in 1,000 was affected. (04:57)
• Types of “Hostile Acts”:
  • Not all were arson or even property crimes; many incidents were protests, flag removals, or demonstrations related to church stances on social issues. (05:18)
  • “Often things like removing a flag from a pro LGBTQ church, people protesting the church's stance on abortion, or racist attacks on predominantly black churches.” — Lizzie (05:18)
• Conclusion: Nowhere did the data imply 400 churches were "burned to the ground."

4. Canada: Retaliatory Church Attacks and Context

• Triggering Events:
  • In 2021, reports surfaced that ground-penetrating radar found unmarked graves near former residential schools—boarding schools for Indigenous children run by Christian churches, sites of historical abuse. (05:31)
• Actual Number of Burned Churches:
  • Since 2020, about 24 church fires in Canada were deliberately set—again, nowhere near the claimed 400. (06:23)

5. Nigeria: Religious Violence or Something More Complex?

• Nature of Conflict:
  • While some headlines and public figures have claimed "thousands of Christians killed" in Nigeria, the reality is more nuanced. Violence often involves multiple religious groups (Christians, Muslims, and others), and is frequently driven by land or resource disputes rather than solely religious persecution. (07:25)
• Statistics:
  • Between 2020-2024, 20,409 conflict deaths in Nigeria; religion was a factor in a minority of cases (317 Christians, 417 Muslims per ACLED). Another source, Open Doors, gives higher numbers, but does not attribute all deaths to religious motives. (07:35)
  • “The UN itself warns against describing this conflict as religious persecution, saying that this oversimplified narrative risks deepening social fractures rather than addressing their causes.” — Lizzie (08:26)
• Summary: The “400 churches burned” narrative does not fit here, and the real picture is complicated.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Dubious Data:
  “The map actually charts all crimes recorded in churches, but also graveyards, church halls, church schools, cars parked near churches, and in one instant, a scout hut.” — Lizzie (03:37)

• Factchecking the Headline:
  “First things first, there weren’t even 400 fires.” — Lizzie (04:03)

• On US Data Contextualization:
  “The best estimate I can find is that there are 350,000 congregations in the US… the 415 incidents… occurred at 383 churches. So just a little more than one in a thousand.” — Lizzie (04:57)

• On Oversimplifying Nigeria:
  “The UN itself warns against describing this conflict as religious persecution, saying that this oversimplified narrative risks deepening social fractures rather than addressing their causes.” — Lizzie (08:26)

• Humorous Aside:
  “Arsonists work in mysterious ways. But yes, it is suspicious, largely because it isn’t true.” — Lizzie (02:20)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:36] — Introduction of the “400 churches” claim across France, the US, and Canada.
• [03:03] — Deep dive into France’s data and debunking the viral map.
• [04:04] — Actual number of church fires; breakdown of fire causes.
• [04:39] — The US: Understanding the Family Research Council's numbers and what “hostile acts” mean.
• [05:31] — Canadian church fires in context of residential school abuses and retaliation.
• [06:51] — Nigeria: Describing the complexity of violence and religious statistics.
• [07:35] — Reliable data sources and summary of religious deaths in Nigeria.
• [08:26] — UN warning against oversimplification.

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Tone and Style

The episode is delivered with the signature dry wit and skepticism of Tim Harford and the More or Less team. Their approach is careful, methodical, and often gently humorous, striving to debunk viral misinformation without dismissing the seriousness of actual attacks or neglecting broader contexts.

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Summary for Listeners

If you’ve seen headlines or social media posts insisting that 400 churches have been “burned to the ground” in France, the US, or Canada, this episode offers a comprehensive factcheck—with the real numbers usually far lower, and the stories far more complicated. The team debunks viral stats, uncovers what is really happening, and offers context on church attacks and complex conflicts around the world. Ultimately, the show demonstrates the importance of questioning viral numbers and understanding nuanced realities rather than sensationalized headlines.

Transcript

[A]

Hello and thanks for downloading the More Or Less podcast. We're the programme that looks at the numbers in the news, life and social media posts of 1990s British pop icons. I'm Tim Harford. Sometimes a topic comes up that's so good we keep resurrecting it and sending it back out onto the airwaves. This week, that topic is religious persecution, or rather the claims made about attacks on churches. You might recall that we covered the topic at the beginning of the year when we looked into whether something tweeted by a member of a band called Write Said Fred was right too long, didn't listen. Here's a potted version. Basically, an unspecified member of the Fred band, using their joint account, claimed that there had been 9,000 attacks on the churches in the UK. We found that the number actually included crime recorded on the grounds of any religious establishment. That's mosques, churches, synagogues, etc. Plus graveyards, cemeteries, church buildings, car parks. The crimes were mainly burglaries and thefts, and also included things such as drug dealing, sexual assaults and graffiti. But it turns out that this was just one claim about church attacks among many that are percolating through the Internet like the world's least appetizing cup of coffee. Lizzie McNeil did the original report and now, like A Jedi, returns.

[B]

Hi, Tim, you're back. As was foretold.

[A]

So what do you have for us this week?

[B]

Well, actually, this brings us back to social media because I've noticed the same number circulating. People claiming that 400 churches have been burnt down in insert country here.

[A]

Have you malfunctioned again?

[B]

No, I just mean people on Twitter. Then insert whatever country after it.

[C]

So There were only 400 odd churches and chapels burnt to the ground in France. Only 400. This is 400 too many.

[B]

Just this past year, there have been 400 documented instances of hostility against churches in the US.

[C]

Was anyone ever arrested for burning down one of the 400 churches in Canada?

[A]

It does seem very odd that in all of These places it's 400 churches.

[B]

Arsonists work in mysterious ways. But yes, it is suspicious, largely because it isn't true. At least not for countries like Canada or France. In parts of Nigeria, Christians are experiencing high levels of violence, but they are not included in these claims.

[A]

Noted.

[B]

Shall we go through these one by one?

[A]

Please do.

[B]

Well, let's start with France. After Notre Dame suffered a catastrophic but accidental fire in 2019, a map started circulating on Social that allegedly showed the number of Christian churches in France that had been burnt down and did it no, like the UK stats, the map actually charts all crimes recorded in churches, but also graveyards, church halls, church schools, cars parked near churches, and in one instant, a scout hut.

[A]

Oh.

[B]

The map comes from christianophorbie, a French website that goes through news reports to record incidences of alleged Christian persecution in France and around the world. There are indeed hundreds of incidents on the map and on their website. I counted over 1,900 that occurred in France over the past nine years.

[A]

So around 200 crimes a year?

[B]

Yeah. Ish. Now, I've been through all of these incidents on their website and some are pretty uncompelling as examples of religious persecution. For example, one that appears on the map was a scout hut that was targeted and had tents stolen. Another was a report from the diocese that they were worried about the electrical wiring in the church. But there have also been incidents of anti Christian graffiti services being interrupted and theft, as well as arson.

[A]

But the quotes specifically state that 400 churches had been burned to the ground.

[B]

Yeah, they did say that. I went through all the incidents of fire in their reports. First things first, there weren't even 400 fires.

[A]

How many were there?

[B]

120. 26 of these were due to electrics or candles. Two were caused by homeless people lighting fires either near churches or while squatting in an abandoned church. 25 are listed as unknown, most recorded as arson. Fortunately resulted in limited damage. The majority of perpetrators, either children, teenagers or people who were then hospitalised and not found mentally fit to stand trial. Only three churches have had severe damage due to arson, and only two could be described as having been burnt to the ground.

[A]

So very much not 400. What about the US number?

[B]

The 400 figure is more accurate, at least according to the Family Research Council. That's an American evangelical, not for profit activist group and think tank. And they recorded 415 hostile acts last year.

[A]

So the US is a big country. So let's start by asking whether 415 is a big number.

[B]

It's not a big percentage. The best estimate I can find is that there are 350,000 congregations in the US. But the 415 incidents the Family Research Council recorded occurred at 383 churches. So just a little more than one in 1,000.

[A]

I'm curious as to what's meant by hostile act.

[B]

Just some kind of criminal incident. Often things like removing a flag from a pro LGBTQ church, people protesting the church's stance on abortion, or racist attacks on predominantly black churches.

[A]

What about Canada?

[B]

This all stems back to the early 2020s. In 2021, some of Canada's first nations community announced that ground penetrating radar had found what could have been unmarked graves containing the remains of Indigenous children who'd died in residential schools. Residential schools were schools set up and funded by the Canadian government and run by Christian churches. And their aim was to convert Indigenous children to Christianity and change their culture to that of a western one. From 1894 to 1997, it was compulsory for Indigenous children of the first nations to attend these schools. Some estimates suggest that 4,000 of the 150,000 children who went there died. There are also multiple accounts of sexual, physical and emotional abuse.

[A]

So are we talking about people attacking churches in retaliation for their association with the schools?

[B]

Yeah, but the number was nowhere near 400. Around 24. Church fires have been deliberately started in Canada since 2020.

[A]

And Lizzie, I know you said Nigeria wasn't included in this 400 figure. It has been heavily featured in headlines and speeches by people such as Donald Trump and the late Charlie Kirk, who claim that thousands of Christians were being killed in a targeted genocide. So what do we know about that?

[B]

Yeah, so that is a complicated picture. It's certainly true that a lot of Christians have been killed there. And violence is often blamed on the hardline Muslim group Boko Haram. Anyone who doesn't agree with the radical beliefs of Boko Haram are at risk. And this includes Christians, but also many moderate Muslims. And it's not only Boko Haram and Jihadi groups, though. There have also been deadly clashes between farmers who are predominantly Christian, and Fulani herders who are mainly Muslim. Some experts claim those mostly stem from arguments over land and resources rather than purely religious persecution.

[A]

So there's a tangle of motives.

[B]

Yeah. And as ever with conflict areas, it's hard to get at what's true and what isn't.

[A]

Do we have any idea how many people have died in Nigeria?

[B]

According to a conflict monitoring company, ACLED, there were 20,409 conflict related deaths in Nigeria between 2020 and 2024. In a small minority of cases, the religion of the victim was reported as being a factor. 317 Christians and 417 Muslims. Another source is Open Doors, which is a charity researching the persecution of Christians around the world. And they reckon that in 2023, 3,100 Christians and 2,320 Muslims were killed. But Open Doors aren't claiming that religious persecution was the reason for those killings.

[A]

Both sources seem to me to be suggesting first that there's a. And a lot of people are dying. And second, that Muslims and Christians are both at risk. Assuming that the Muslim and Christian populations of Nigeria are roughly the same size,

[B]

which roughly they are. The UN itself warns against describing this conflict as religious persecution, saying that this oversimplified narrative risks deepening social fractures rather than addressing their causes. Basically, it's a horrible situation that's a lot more complicated than purely religious persecution.

[A]

Thank you, Lizzy. And on that sombre note, we leave you if you have any questions or comments, please do write in to more or [e-mail] until next time. Goodbye.