Climate Change

Summary

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More or Less – Climate Change Episode

BBC Radio 4, December 5, 2015
Host: Ruth Alexander

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Episode Overview

This episode of "More or Less" investigates the numbers behind claims that climate change contributed to the outbreak of the Syrian civil war. Additionally, it addresses a listener's question about the relationship between petrol consumption and carbon dioxide emissions—a statistic widely cited during the Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21).

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Climate Change and the Outbreak of War in Syria

• Backdrop: The 2015 Paris Climate Conference has prompted many to link global security and climate change. In the British media, figures like President Obama and Prince Charles have suggested that climate change caused or contributed to the Syrian conflict.

• Initial Claim:
  Prince Charles (00:29): “There was absolutely a link between a long running drought and the conflict in Syria.”

• Examining the Drought Connection:

  • There was a significant drought in Syria between 2007 and 2010.
  • Ruth Alexander (01:04): “For [climate change to be a major reason for the conflict], you need a drought that's linked to climate change.”
  • Colin Kelly (University of California), lead author of a key study, clarifies:

    “We're very careful not to say that the drought was caused by climate change. In fact, we say that what happened was this was a naturally occurring multi year drought that was made much more severe by climate change.” (01:45)

• Statistical Claim:

  • The study asserts the severe drought was made “two to three times more likely” by climate change (02:08).
  • Jan Selby (University of Sussex) is skeptical about attributing individual weather events to climate change:

    “No individual weather event can be decisively attributed to climate change.” (02:26)

• Migration Numbers:

  • Kelly’s paper suggests up to 1.5 million Syrians left rural areas due to the drought (03:17).
  • Jan Selby disputes this, noting that the commonly cited figure is “extremely dubious” and much higher than more reliable sources (UN, Syrian government), who estimate only 200,000–300,000 migrated (03:57).
  • Colin Kelly responds:

    "...there were a number of other sources that put this figure in this one to 1.5 million range... that's why we said, you know, as many as 1.5 million, because we want to kind of imply that this is kind of the upper bounds of the estimates.” (04:26)

• Causes of Migration:

  • Selby argues that policy moves such as removal of agricultural subsidies “had a far greater effect on rural areas of Syria than the drought itself” (05:08).

• Link from Migration to War:

  • Selby: “There really is very little evidence that the presence of these migrants in Syria’s cities were a contributory, let alone an important contributory, factor to the start of the civil war.” (05:53)
  • Kelly maintains that the drought/migration is “one of 15 major factors,” not necessarily a primary one (06:36).

• Summary by Host:

  • “So there you have it. The academic who wrote the paper thinks climate change could be one of 15 major factors that have led to conflict in Syria.” (06:52)

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2. Numbers at the Paris Climate Conference (COP21)

• Context:

  • COP21 is touted as the “most important” climate conference, with 195 nations aiming for a binding agreement to reduce emissions (07:13–07:28).

• Listener Question—Petrol and CO₂:

  • Listener reports hearing: “A gallon of petrol produces 8kg of CO₂.” (07:54)

  • Skepticism:

    • “An American gallon of petrol weighs only 2.8kg, how can this be right? Isn't this creating matter?” (08:08)

  • Explanation by James Melley:

    • “Petrol doesn’t burn in isolation. It only burns in the presence of oxygen… If you add the weight of the petrol to the weight of the oxygen before it's burnt, it's the same as the weight of the carbon dioxide and the water after it’s burnt.” (08:22)
    • “You just get a greater weight of carbon dioxide than the weight of petrol you started with.” (08:52)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Drought and Conflict Attribution:

  • “No individual weather event can be decisively attributed to climate change.” — Jan Selby, 02:26
  • “We’re very careful not to say that the drought was caused by climate change... it was made much more severe by climate change.” — Colin Kelly, 01:45

• On Migration Figures:

  • “The figure of 1.5 million is extremely dubious.” — Jan Selby, 03:57
  • “That's why we said, you know, as many as 1.5 million, because we want to kind of imply that this is kind of the upper bounds of the estimates.” — Colin Kelly, 04:26

• On the Complexity of Causes:

  • “If there were 15 major factors, then yes, [climate change] was one of the major factors. I think it might be going too far to suggest that it was the most important factor.” — Colin Kelly, 06:36

• On Chemistry of Emissions:

  • “Petrol doesn't burn in isolation. It only burns in the presence of oxygen… You just get a greater weight of carbon dioxide than the weight of petrol you started with.” — James Melley, 08:22

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:29 – Prince Charles connects drought to Syrian conflict
• 01:45 – Colin Kelly explains scientific position on drought attribution
• 02:26 – Jan Selby disputes attribution of individual event to climate change
• 03:17 – Claims about migration due to drought
• 03:57 – Selby critiques the 1.5 million migration figure
• 04:26 – Kelly responds on the data sources for migration
• 05:08 – Selby explains alternative explanations for migration (policy & subsidies)
• 05:53 – Selby’s view: Little evidence rural migrants contributed to war’s outbreak
• 06:36 – Kelly: Drought is “one of 15 major factors”
• 07:54 – Listener question on petrol weight vs. CO₂ emissions
• 08:22 – James Melley explains how petrol creates more CO₂ by mass

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Tone & Language

The episode is analytical, skeptical, and balanced, striving to dissect complex claims with clear, careful language—typical of the "More or Less" approach. Academic voices debate gently but firmly, and scientific skepticism pervades the discussion.

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For those seeking clarity on the debated links between climate change and modern conflict or needing to unravel everyday climate statistics, this episode offers careful probing and debunking, revealing the nuance and uncertainty behind the headlines.

Transcript

[A]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[B]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander. Later in the programme, we'll be answering some of your questions about the numbers used in the climate change conference in Paris.

[C]

This is the moment we finally determined we would save our planet.

[B]

President Obama has called climate change a serious threat to global security. But has it already caused a war? Speaking to Sky News, Prince Charles from the British royal family said there was absolutely a link between a long running drought and the conflict in Syria.

[D]

Huge numbers of people in the end had to leave the land because water ran out, their crops failed and so on. And increasingly they came into into the cities already full of Iraqi refugees from that horror and that crisis. And this combined to create a very difficult situation.

[B]

But was climate change really one of the major reasons the conflict in Syria began in 2011? Well, for that to be correct, a number of other things need to be true. Firstly, you need a drought that's linked to climate change. Well, there was a drought between 2007 and 2010 in Syria, but droughts there aren't uncommon. As one recent academic paper puts it, droughts in Syria have occurred almost every second year over the past half century. So can we pin this one on climate change? Colin Kelly from the University of California was the lead author on a study which concluded that global warming played a significant part.

[E]

We're very careful not to say that the drought was caused by climate change. In fact, we say that what happened was this was a naturally occurring multi year drought that was made much more severe by climate change. And that's a very important distinction. And we really are careful not to say that the uprising was sparked by climate change, or that it was caused by climate change, or even to say that climate change was the most important factor.

[B]

Their study claims that the probability of a drought as severe as the one between 2007 and 2010 occurring was made two to three times more likely by climate change. But Jan Selby, a professor of international relations at the University of Sussex in the uk, is doubtful.

[F]

Many people take that claim about increasing likelihood and translate that into climate change was a cause of or a contributory factor to the drought. But that's not quite accurate. No individual weather event can be decisively attributed to climate change.

[B]

Not only is the matter of attribution in question, the Kelly paper focuses mainly on winter rainfall in the Fertile Crescent, a region Stretching from southern Russia to Saudi Arabia. Some have suggested looking at rainfall measurement in Syria tells a different story. But the existence of a climate change influenced drought is not the only thing that needs to be true. For the Syria hypothesis to work, this drought needs to have caused a huge internal migration from rural to urban areas. Colin Kelly's paper suggests that up to one and a half million Syrians left rural areas.

[E]

There was tension there before the Iraqi refugees were already there and there were a lot of dissatisfaction with the Assad regime already. Then you add in another million to a million and a half people, many of whom are living in slums on the urban periphery. Basically it comes down to a lack of resources. Not only was there a lack of employment for these internally displaced people, but there was a lack of food and water. It's not at all difficult to see how when people's basic human needs are not being met, there's going to be unrest.

[B]

So is his figure of one and a half million people leaving rural areas accurate? Here's Jan Selby.

[F]

Again, the figure of 1.5 million is extremely dubious. Kelly and colleagues source for this is a very short news report simply citing a Syrian government official. There is no data to back this up. The figure, more importantly is very much out of line with other estimates of the time, both from the UN and from the Syrian government, which put the figure of a number of migrants in the region of 2 to 300,000 people.

[E]

Unfortunately, that was the best really citable source that we could find. But there were a number of other sources that put this figure in this one to 1.5 million range, whether it was 300,000 or whether it was a million or whether it was 1.5 million. That's a lot of people that you've added again, on top of what was already a very volatile situation in these urban areas. And we with confidence believe that it's in this one to 1.5 million range. But that's why we said, you know, as many as 1.5 million, because we want to kind of imply that this is kind of the upper bounds of the estimates.

[B]

So the number of people who moved to cities is disputed. But was drought the main reason for migration at that time?

[F]

One of the problems that Syria was facing was that there had been extensive groundwater depletion and yes, so people were short of water. That was a fact about how much of that was about the weather versus how much of it was about unsustainable agricultural practices. But then in addition, and I think for me this is the key point the drought coincided with a period when the Syrian state was removing agricultural subsidies, especially subsidies for diesel fuel and fertilizers, which, according to some researchers, had a far greater effect on rural areas of Syria than the drought itself.

[B]

Even if drought did cause a huge number of people to move into the cities in Syria, how would this have contributed to the conflict?

[F]

There really is very little evidence that the presence of these migrants in Syria's cities were a contributory, let alone an important contributory, factor to the start of the civil war. They didn't present any evidence that the migrants were themselves involved in the violence at the start of the civil war, either as participants in that violence or as targets of the violence. If the migrants were a significant stress factor within serious cities, one would expect them, amongst other things, to have been targets of the violence. And I don't think there's any evidence of that.

[B]

But Colin Kelly stands by his work.

[E]

When people say things like, it was one of the major factors. Well, if there were 15 major factors, then yes, it was one of the major factors. I think it might be going too far to suggest that it was the most important factor. And I think that a lot of people have stopped just short of saying that.

[B]

So there you have it. The academic who wrote the paper thinks climate change could be one of 15 major factors that have led to conflict in Syria. You're listening to More or less on the BBC World Service. The Paris Climate Change Conference got underway on the 30th of November, and it's being billed as the most important addition of the annual event.

[C]

Nearly 200 nations have assembled here this week. A declaration that for all the challenges we face, the growing threat of climate change could define the contours of this century more dramatically than any other.

[B]

The 21st Conference of the Parties, or COP21, as it's known, sees 195 nations come together to try to come to the world's first binding agreement to reduce the level of greenhouse gas emissions with the aim of of avoiding the threat of dangerous global warming due to human activities. It's an event awash with numbers. One of our listeners, Nigel woods, heard a couple of them in this BBC Radio programme.

[G]

As you know, there's the climate conference at the moment. That's in France. Here's a little factoid from it. A gallon of gasoline. A gallon of petrol produces 8kg of CO2.

[B]

Nigel emailed us to ask, given an

[H]

American gallon of petrol weighs only 2.8kg, how can this be right? Isn't this creating matter?

[B]

Well, to answer that, question here is More Or Less producer James Melley. James, can this be right?

[H]

Well, Ruth, it isn't creating matter and it can be right. Petrol doesn't burn in isolation. It only burns in the presence of oxygen. So burning petrol in oxygen results in carbon dioxide and water and a load of other impurities. If you add the weight of the petrol to the weight of the oxygen before it's burnt, it's the same as the weight of the carbon dioxide and the water after it's burnt. No extra weight is created or lost. You just get a greater weight of carbon dioxide than the weight of petrol you started with.

[B]

Thanks, James. Well, that's all we've got time for this week, but if you have any numbers you'd like us to look at, please do contact us. Our email address is more or less bc.cod and our website is BBC.com more or less.

[A]

There are dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sports. The details of them all go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.