More or Less: Behind the Stats

Episode Summary: Are 72% of prison inmates in Switzerland foreign?

Release Date: October 11, 2025
Host: Tim Harford
Guest Expert: Marcelo Ayabi (Professor of Criminology, University of Lausanne; Lead author, Council of Europe’s prison populations report)

Overview

In this episode, Tim Harford and the More or Less team investigate a striking statistic used by Donald Trump in a recent speech at the UN: that 72% of people in Swiss prisons are foreigners. With expert insights from Marcelo Ayabi, the episode explores the accuracy of this number, the broader context behind it, and what it really tells us about crime, migration, and the structure of prison populations in Switzerland and other European countries.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Claim: "72% of Swiss Prisoners are Foreigners"

• Source: Donald Trump (00:59), citing Council of Europe data.
  • Trump lists similarly high figures for Germany, Austria, and Greece.
• Is it True?
  • "Yeah, the numbers are right." (Marcelo Ayabi, 01:44)
• The statistic is factually correct, but its interpretation requires nuance.

2. Why is the Foreign Prisoner Proportion So High in Switzerland?

A. Geography and Cross-Border Context (02:44–03:24)

• Switzerland is "at the crossroads of Europe" (Marcelo Ayabi).
• Daily Cross-Border Movement:
  • 400,000 cross-border workers enter every day.
  • Attracts both legitimate workers and individuals seeking criminal opportunities.
  • "It's a very small country, so you enter, you cross and you go out. And it's a rich country, so it attracts also some, I would say non wanted tourists." (Marcelo Ayabi, 03:12)

B. Demographics (03:24–04:01)

• Switzerland is a multicultural society:
  • 27% of the stable population are foreigners; around 30% are foreign-born.
  • In Geneva and Lausanne, close to half are legally established foreigners.
• Many "foreign" prisoners are EU citizens, not just asylum seekers or undocumented people.

C. How Statistics Are Counted (04:10–04:23)

• Figures are based on citizenship, not immigration status.
  • Includes: long-term immigrants, tourists, commuters, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants.

D. Legal Status Matters (04:32–05:06)

• Swiss conviction data differentiate legal residency:
  • Those with a legal status make up about 30% of the sentenced—similar to their population share.
  • Main driver of higher prison rates: non-resident foreigners (e.g., "crime tourists"), not established immigrants.
  • "The main difference comes from those who do not have a legal status." (Marcelo Ayabi, 04:57)

E. Pre-Trial Detention Policy ("Remand") (05:26–05:44)

• Switzerland imprisons a high share (46%) on remand—that is, waiting for trial.
  • Foreigners without a Swiss address are less likely to be released pre-trial, so are overrepresented in prison stats.

3. Switzerland's Small Prison Population

• Relative scale:
  • ~7,000 prisoners total (77 prisoners per 100,000 people).
  • Compare: 145 per 100,000 in England and Wales; 500+ per 100,000 in US (~1.8 million prisoners).
• Shorter sentences and low crime; the high % is a "large slice of a small pie."
• "It's a low crime country and also a country where sentences are usually relatively... much shorter than in other countries." (Marcelo Ayabi, 05:50)

4. Public Perception vs. Statistical Reality

• The 72% statistic, while accurate, reflects:
  • Open borders, economic migration, and geographic context.
  • Policy on pre-trial detention.
  • "President Trump implied that Switzerland was swamped with asylum-seeking criminals... The 72% figure is high because of policies on pretrial detention and because open borders to the EU mean that people can pop into Switzerland briefly with the aim of causing trouble. It's also a large slice of a small prison population. But all that said, 72% is a big number and it suggests a real problem." (Tim Harford, 06:38)

5. The Broader Picture: Is There a Solution?

• High proportion is due to Switzerland's position and open borders, not just immigration as such.
• Economic needs:
  • Economy depends on daily cross-border commuters.
  • Tight border controls would "cause chaos" (Tim Harford, 07:17).
• Crime tourists:
  • Some exploit porous borders; heavier controls are not practical.
• "There is no easy solution. I wish I would have the magic solution... It doesn't come from immigration, it comes from the persons who are not established here." (Marcelo Ayabi, 07:40)

6. International Comparisons

• Foreign prisoner percentage:
  • England & Wales: 12%
  • US: ~7%
  • Germany & Austria: ~50%
  • Greece: 54%
• Contexts differ:
  • Germany & Austria have similar open-border factors as Switzerland.
  • Greece is "in the front line of illegal immigration," driving higher numbers via human trafficking and associated crime.
  • "Greece is in the front line of illegal immigration. You know, there is an organised crime circuit there to bring people from other countries." (Marcelo Ayabi, 08:55)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Statistical Context:
  "He [Trump] cherry picked the highest ones. Of course, he could have used numbers from Eastern Europe and there, the issue of foreigners, it doesn't exist. So he chose the highest numbers that were there." (Marcelo Ayabi, 02:04)

• On Challenges of Solutions:
  "You cannot introduce very heavy border controls because we're in the middle of Europe and everything needs to move." (Marcelo Ayabi, 07:52)

• On Reality vs. Political Narrative:
  "There is a problem. Not the problem we would see when you look at the figures, but there is a problem." (Marcelo Ayabi, 07:09)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:59 – Donald Trump’s claim at the UN
• 01:44 – Expert confirmation: statistics are accurate
• 02:44–03:24 – Geographic context and cross-border movement
• 03:24–04:01 – Swiss demographics and “foreign” category explanation
• 04:32 – Difference between legal status and citizenship in prison stats
• 05:26 – Pre-trial detention policies’ impact
• 05:50 – Switzerland’s small and low-crime prison context
• 06:38 – Interpreting the 72% figure
• 07:17–07:52 – Economic reliance on cross-border workers and border control challenges
• 08:04 – Comparison: England & Wales, US, Germany, Austria, Greece
• 08:55 – Greek context: illegal immigration and human trafficking

Final Thoughts

The headline number—72% of Swiss prisoners are foreigners—is correct but can be misleading without context. It results from Switzerland’s unique geography, open labor market, and reliance on cross-border movement. Many "foreigners" in Swiss prisons are not long-term migrants or asylum seekers but include EU citizens, commuters, and short-term visitors (including “crime tourists”), especially those held in pre-trial detention or without legal residence. The real challenge lies in balancing economic necessity, open borders, and public safety—a dilemma with no easy policy solution.