Are 72% of prison inmates in Switzerland foreign?

Summary

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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Episode Summary: Are 72% of prison inmates in Switzerland foreign?

Release Date: October 11, 2025
Host: Tim Harford
Guest Expert: Marcelo Ayabi (Professor of Criminology, University of Lausanne; Lead author, Council of Europe’s prison populations report)

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Overview

In this episode, Tim Harford and the More or Less team investigate a striking statistic used by Donald Trump in a recent speech at the UN: that 72% of people in Swiss prisons are foreigners. With expert insights from Marcelo Ayabi, the episode explores the accuracy of this number, the broader context behind it, and what it really tells us about crime, migration, and the structure of prison populations in Switzerland and other European countries.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Claim: "72% of Swiss Prisoners are Foreigners"

• Source: Donald Trump (00:59), citing Council of Europe data.
  • Trump lists similarly high figures for Germany, Austria, and Greece.
• Is it True?
  • "Yeah, the numbers are right." (Marcelo Ayabi, 01:44)
• The statistic is factually correct, but its interpretation requires nuance.

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2. Why is the Foreign Prisoner Proportion So High in Switzerland?

A. Geography and Cross-Border Context (02:44–03:24)

• Switzerland is "at the crossroads of Europe" (Marcelo Ayabi).
• Daily Cross-Border Movement:
  • 400,000 cross-border workers enter every day.
  • Attracts both legitimate workers and individuals seeking criminal opportunities.
  • "It's a very small country, so you enter, you cross and you go out. And it's a rich country, so it attracts also some, I would say non wanted tourists." (Marcelo Ayabi, 03:12)

B. Demographics (03:24–04:01)

• Switzerland is a multicultural society:
  • 27% of the stable population are foreigners; around 30% are foreign-born.
  • In Geneva and Lausanne, close to half are legally established foreigners.
• Many "foreign" prisoners are EU citizens, not just asylum seekers or undocumented people.

C. How Statistics Are Counted (04:10–04:23)

• Figures are based on citizenship, not immigration status.
  • Includes: long-term immigrants, tourists, commuters, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants.

D. Legal Status Matters (04:32–05:06)

• Swiss conviction data differentiate legal residency:
  • Those with a legal status make up about 30% of the sentenced—similar to their population share.
  • Main driver of higher prison rates: non-resident foreigners (e.g., "crime tourists"), not established immigrants.
  • "The main difference comes from those who do not have a legal status." (Marcelo Ayabi, 04:57)

E. Pre-Trial Detention Policy ("Remand") (05:26–05:44)

• Switzerland imprisons a high share (46%) on remand—that is, waiting for trial.
  • Foreigners without a Swiss address are less likely to be released pre-trial, so are overrepresented in prison stats.

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3. Switzerland's Small Prison Population

• Relative scale:
  • ~7,000 prisoners total (77 prisoners per 100,000 people).
  • Compare: 145 per 100,000 in England and Wales; 500+ per 100,000 in US (~1.8 million prisoners).
• Shorter sentences and low crime; the high % is a "large slice of a small pie."
• "It's a low crime country and also a country where sentences are usually relatively... much shorter than in other countries." (Marcelo Ayabi, 05:50)

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4. Public Perception vs. Statistical Reality

• The 72% statistic, while accurate, reflects:
  • Open borders, economic migration, and geographic context.
  • Policy on pre-trial detention.
  • "President Trump implied that Switzerland was swamped with asylum-seeking criminals... The 72% figure is high because of policies on pretrial detention and because open borders to the EU mean that people can pop into Switzerland briefly with the aim of causing trouble. It's also a large slice of a small prison population. But all that said, 72% is a big number and it suggests a real problem." (Tim Harford, 06:38)

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5. The Broader Picture: Is There a Solution?

• High proportion is due to Switzerland's position and open borders, not just immigration as such.
• Economic needs:
  • Economy depends on daily cross-border commuters.
  • Tight border controls would "cause chaos" (Tim Harford, 07:17).
• Crime tourists:
  • Some exploit porous borders; heavier controls are not practical.
• "There is no easy solution. I wish I would have the magic solution... It doesn't come from immigration, it comes from the persons who are not established here." (Marcelo Ayabi, 07:40)

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6. International Comparisons

• Foreign prisoner percentage:
  • England & Wales: 12%
  • US: ~7%
  • Germany & Austria: ~50%
  • Greece: 54%
• Contexts differ:
  • Germany & Austria have similar open-border factors as Switzerland.
  • Greece is "in the front line of illegal immigration," driving higher numbers via human trafficking and associated crime.
  • "Greece is in the front line of illegal immigration. You know, there is an organised crime circuit there to bring people from other countries." (Marcelo Ayabi, 08:55)

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Statistical Context:
  "He [Trump] cherry picked the highest ones. Of course, he could have used numbers from Eastern Europe and there, the issue of foreigners, it doesn't exist. So he chose the highest numbers that were there." (Marcelo Ayabi, 02:04)

• On Challenges of Solutions:
  "You cannot introduce very heavy border controls because we're in the middle of Europe and everything needs to move." (Marcelo Ayabi, 07:52)

• On Reality vs. Political Narrative:
  "There is a problem. Not the problem we would see when you look at the figures, but there is a problem." (Marcelo Ayabi, 07:09)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:59 – Donald Trump’s claim at the UN
• 01:44 – Expert confirmation: statistics are accurate
• 02:44–03:24 – Geographic context and cross-border movement
• 03:24–04:01 – Swiss demographics and “foreign” category explanation
• 04:32 – Difference between legal status and citizenship in prison stats
• 05:26 – Pre-trial detention policies’ impact
• 05:50 – Switzerland’s small and low-crime prison context
• 06:38 – Interpreting the 72% figure
• 07:17–07:52 – Economic reliance on cross-border workers and border control challenges
• 08:04 – Comparison: England & Wales, US, Germany, Austria, Greece
• 08:55 – Greek context: illegal immigration and human trafficking

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Final Thoughts

The headline number—72% of Swiss prisoners are foreigners—is correct but can be misleading without context. It results from Switzerland’s unique geography, open labor market, and reliance on cross-border movement. Many "foreigners" in Swiss prisons are not long-term migrants or asylum seekers but include EU citizens, commuters, and short-term visitors (including “crime tourists”), especially those held in pre-trial detention or without legal residence. The real challenge lies in balancing economic necessity, open borders, and public safety—a dilemma with no easy policy solution.

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Transcript

[Tim Harford]

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[Asma Khalid]

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[Tim Harford]

Hello and thanks for downloading the More or less podcast with a programme that looks at the numbers in the news and in life and in Swiss prisons. I'm Tim Harford, loyal listener. George got in touch to ask us to look into some of the figures Donald Trump used in a recent speech at the un. Here's the section in question.

[Donald Trump]

According to the Council of Europe, in 2024, almost 50% of inmates in German prisons were foreign nationals or migrants. In Austria, the number was 53% of the people in prisons were from places that weren't from where they are now. In Greece, the number was 54%. And in Switzerland, beautiful Switzerland, 72%. The people in prisons are from outside of Switzerland. When your prisons are filled with so called asylum seekers who repaint kindness, 50%.

[Tim Harford]

53%, 72%, those numbers sound rather high. Can they really be right?

[Marcelo Ayabi]

Yeah, the numbers are right.

[Tim Harford]

Enter Marcelo Ayabi. He is thoroughly qualified to answer this question. He's a professor of criminology, he works at the University of Lausanne and lives in Switzerland. And he's the lead author of the Council of Europe report on prison populations that President Trump was citing.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

I mean, he cherry picked the highest ones. Of course, he could have used numbers from Eastern Europe and there, the issue of foreigners, it doesn't exist. So he chose the highest numbers that were there.

[Tim Harford]

Well, I mean, that just seems to be pretty standard behavior from politicians. So 72% of people in prisons in Switzerland are from outside of Switzerland. That's true.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

That's true.

[Tim Harford]

So what is going on in Switzerland?

[Marcelo Ayabi]

The first answer if I try to organize would be it's complicated, but I would say a part of is artificial and a part reflects a real problem.

[Tim Harford]

The first thing to understand is geography.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

Switzerland is at the crossroads of Europe. Millions of people cross the border every year and every day we have 400,000 cross border workers, people that have a permit to work in Switzerland but not to leave. So you have a lot of people entering every day. Among them you can find, for example, Gangs specialized in robberies or in burglaries. It's a very small country, so you enter, you cross and you go out. And it's a rich country, so it attracts also some, I would say non wanted tourists.

[Tim Harford]

Next you've got demographics.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

Switzerland is already a multicultural society. 27% of the stable population are foreigners and roughly 30% are foreign borns. In Geneva and Lausanne, the percentage of foreigners legally established is close to half of the population in big cities, you know. So of course then the percentage of foreigners would be higher than in other countries. People tend to forget that among this percentage of foreigners, a good part of them are EU citizens.

[Tim Harford]

Donald Trump says the foreign prisoners are so called asylum seekers, but there are all kinds of people who aren't Swiss nationals in this statistic.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

The figures are based on citizenship, not immigration status. This is a general category where you have long term immigrants together with tourists, commuters, asylum seekers and undocumented people.

[Tim Harford]

However, while we don't know the exact immigration status from the prison stats, Marcelo says you do get an idea from Swiss conviction data.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

There you can make the difference between the persons with the legal status of residence and the persons without that legal status. So when you take this into account, the percentage of those with the legal status of residential is roughly 30% of the people sentenced. So it's more or less the same as they are part in the population. And the part of Swiss citizens is small. But the main difference comes from those who do not have a legal status.

[Tim Harford]

People who've come to Switzerland to claim asylum might be counted in that group, but so would those crime tourists Marcelo mentioned earlier. And this group, people who are neither Swiss citizens nor legally resident foreign nationals, are important in this figure because they're far more likely to be held in prison before trial.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

Switzerland has a high share of people in remand waiting for a final sentence, about 46%. And foreigners are disproportionately represented there because without the Swiss address, they are less likely to be released pending trial.

[Tim Harford]

One more bit of context relative to its population. Switzerland has a tiny number of people in prison.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

Switzerland is a country with a. It's a low crime country and also a country where sentences are usually relatively, I would not say lenient, but they are much shorter than in other countries. So that explains also why the absolute number of inmates in Switzerland is low.

[Tim Harford]

Switzerland has a prison population of under 7,000 or 77 prisoners per 100,000 people in the population. That compares to 145 per 100,000 in England and Wales and over 500 per 100,000 in the US, where the total incarcerated population is around 1.8 million people. President Trump implied that Switzerland was swamped with asylum seeking criminals. There certainly are asylum seekers in Swiss prisons, although we don't know how many. The 72% figure is high because of policies on pre trial detention and because open borders to the EU mean that people can pop into Switzerland briefly with the aim of causing trouble. It's also a large slice of a small prison population. But all that said, 72% is a big number and it suggests a real problem.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

I mean, yeah, there is a problem. Not the problem we would see when you look at the figures, but there is a problem.

[Tim Harford]

As to how you solve that problem, the question's a tricky one. Switzerland's economy relies on people commuting in from neighbouring countries such as France, to work at shops, factories, offices and hospitals. Checking every passport on the way through would cause chaos. But that means criminals can simply drive across the border for a day of doing crimes and then drive home again.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

There is no easy solution. I wish I would have the magic solution and I can assure you that even policymakers here are trying to find a solution because it's a problem that has been there for a long time, but it's not easily solved because it doesn't come from immigration, it comes from the persons who are not established here. And you cannot introduce very heavy border controls because we're in the middle of Europe and everything needs to move.

[Tim Harford]

For comparison, the rate of foreign nationals in prison in England and Wales is 12%. For the US, the rate is just under 7%. How about those other countries mentioned by Donald Trump? Germany, Austria and Greece. Again, the numbers are correct for Germany and Austria with around 50% of foreign prisoners. Marcelo says some of the drivers are similar to those in Switzerland.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

These countries attract a lot because they are much more similar to Switzerland than others. Also the borders, I mean, the borders exist, but these are very big borders. You cannot check everything. And so they attract a lot of people.

[Tim Harford]

So again, many of these prisoners will be EU citizens and some of them will be crime tourists. For Greece, with 54% foreign prisoners, the situation is different.

[Marcelo Ayabi]

Greece is in the front line of illegal immigration. You know, there is an organized crime circuit there to bring people from other countries. This is trafficking in human beings. It's also for illegal work for different things. So if you are in the front line of four these people arriving at one moment, you will have an over representation.

[Tim Harford]

Our thanks to Marcelo aeibi. And that's it for this episode of More or less. But if you've seen a number you want us to take a look at, please email us at more or lessbc.co.uk. we will be back next week, and until then, goodbye.

[Asma Khalid]

America is changing and so is the world.

[Tristan Redman]

But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

[Asma Khalid]

I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm.

[Tristan Redman]

Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global story.

[Asma Khalid]

Every weekday, we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

[Tristan Redman]

Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.