Are African leaders more likely to die in office?

Summary

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More or Less (BBC Radio 4)

Episode: Are African leaders more likely to die in office?

Date: August 27, 2012
Host: Ruth Alexander

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Ruth Alexander explores whether African leaders are statistically more likely to die in office, prompted by a spate of recent presidential deaths across the continent. The program dissects the data, considers demographic and political explanations, and assesses what these patterns mean for African nations and their governance. Later, the episode pivots to discuss the incentives around marriage, consulting economists for insight.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Spate of African Leaders Dying in Office

• Recent Deaths: The episode opens reviewing the deaths of four African leaders in 2012: Ethiopia’s Meles Zenawi, Ghana’s John Atta Mills, Malawi’s Bingu wa Mutharika, and Guinea Bissau’s Malam Bacai Sanhá.
• Impact: Ruth Alexander notes these deaths are “disruptive for the countries concerned, tragic for the leaders’ families,” and, somewhat wryly, a lot of work for reporters.
  • [01:09] Simon Allison: “I seem to be getting an awful lot of calls in the middle of the night telling me an African president had died. And to be honest, I’m getting a bit sick of it.”

2. Statistical Comparison: Africa vs. the World

• Simon Allison’s Investigation
  • Reports 9 deaths of African presidents in office from 2008 to 2012 vs. only 3 elsewhere globally (North Korea, Poland, Barbados) in the same period ([01:34-02:09]).
  • The show’s research corrects this: actually, 10 African presidents died in that window ([02:21]).
• Key Quote
  • [01:48] Simon Allison: “To have nine [leaders die] seems quite excessive…Looking further afield at the rest of the world…only three other countries…That was it.”

3. Age and Life Expectancy: Are African Leaders Older?

• Leader Ages
  • Charlotte MacDonald: The average age of African leaders is 61, the same as Asia; South America is 59, Europe is younger at 55 ([02:27]).
  • Leaders who died averaged age 67 – older than active leaders.
• General Life Expectancy
  • Poorer childhoods, typical in Africa, may diminish overall longevity, even if leaders’ lives improve as adults.
• Expert Insight
  • [03:03] Dr. George Leeson (gerontologist, Oxford):
    "…even though they [presidents] will be living a lifestyle far, far, far removed from that of their fellow citizens…they do have an accum disadvantageous lifestyle which they have to pay back on at some time."
• Caveat: Not all African leaders necessarily had disadvantaged childhoods ([03:34]).

4. Is It About Clinging to Power?

• Theoretical Stereotype: African leaders hang on to power until death.
• Scrutiny by Simon Allison
  • Some cases fit the “dictator dies in office” pattern (Omar Bongo, Lansana Conté, Muammar Gaddafi), but not all.
  • [03:48] Simon Allison: “Melissa Nowi…only 57, so he doesn’t really fall into the dying in old age…And all the others were within their constitutional term limits and hadn’t even fiddled with them yet.”
• Conclusion: No clear evidence that clinging to power is the dominant explanation.

5. Is the Pattern a Statistical Blip? Impacts and Optimism

• Possibility
  • [04:19] Charlotte MacDonald: "All this might be statistically meaningless, a blip if you like."
• Stakes for Governance
  • [04:27] Simon Allison: “A death in office leads to a power vacuum, and power vacuums can be dangerous and destabilising…in Guinea Bissau when Sanha died. A coup followed very shortly afterwards.”
• Hopeful Signs
  • Constitutional succession occurred peacefully in Zambia, Malawi, Ghana, and Nigeria after leaders' deaths ([04:45]).
  • [04:53] Simon Allison: “This is a very encouraging sign for Africa’s development.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [01:29] Ruth Alexander: “So Simon’s been doing some investigating and the resulting article has attracted a lot of attention online.”
• [03:03] Dr. George Leeson: “They do have an accum disadvantageous lifestyle which they have to pay back on at some time.”
• [04:27] Simon Allison: “Obviously, a death in office leads to a power vacuum, and power vacuums can be dangerous and destabilising.”
• [04:53] Simon Allison: “...the death of the president was followed by the constitutional succession with a minimum of violence and dispute around the issue. And I think this is a very encouraging sign for Africa's development.”

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[05:09] Brief Secondary Discussion: Is Marriage Worth It?

Switching topics, the episode answers a listener’s question about whether he should get married, turning to economists Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers:

• Health & Children

  • Married people live longer on average, but causality unclear.
  • Any apparent benefit to children from marriage disappears once parental background is controlled for.

• Marriage vs. Cohabitation

  • [06:45] Justin Wolfers: “You can get many of the benefits of marriage just by moving in together. Maybe what Mark really wants is commitment. Well, marriage doesn’t really give you commitment because you can always get divorced.”
  • Suggests getting matching tattoos as a (tongue-in-cheek) symbol of commitment.

• Marriage as Social & Economic Commitment

  • [06:59] Betsey Stevenson: “One of the reasons why people have big wedding ceremonies with lots of people there is because it creates social pressure for you to honor your commitment…”
  • [07:15] Justin Wolfers: “The way lots of relationships work is very much an insurance policy…you need some way to make sure that when you lose your job…your partner will still want to stay with you.”

• Personal Perspective

  • [08:00] Justin Wolfers: “The thing that will keep me committed to Betsy is not a piece of paper…It’s our daughter. So I think we’re definitely together for the long haul. We get that commitment technology from a different source.”

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Key Timestamps

• [00:12] – Introduction & context: Recent African presidential deaths
• [01:09] – Simon Allison’s frustration and initial question
• [01:34] – Statistical breakdown: African vs. global presidential deaths
• [02:27] – Leader ages compared by continent and vs. average
• [03:03] – George Leeson on health consequences of childhood disadvantage
• [03:48] – Debunking stereotypes about leaders clinging to power
• [04:27] – Effects of leader deaths on political stability
• [04:53] – Optimism about peaceful succession in Africa
• [05:09] – Listener question: Is marriage worth it?
• [06:45] – Economic and psychological takes on marriage and commitment
• [08:00] – Wolfers and Stevenson’s personal approach to commitment

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Summary

This episode of More or Less uses the recent deaths of several African leaders as a launchpad to statistically investigate whether African leaders are actually more likely to die in office than their global peers. While higher rates are confirmed, typical explanations—old age, shorter local life expectancy, dictatorships—don’t fully account for the trend, leaving room for statistical fluke. The episode highlights both risks (power vacuums, coups) and hopeful signs (peaceful succession). In a secondary segment, the podcast fields a lighthearted but thoughtful inquiry about marriage from both a health, social, and economic view.

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Transcript

[BBC Announcer]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[Ruth Alexander]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander. This week, should you get married? But first, there's been sad news from Ethiopia. State television in Ethiopia has announced the death of the country's Prime Minister, Meles Zanawi. Earlier in the year, there was sad news from Ghana. The president of Ghana, John Atta Mills, has died.

[Narrator/Reporter]

He was 68.

[Ruth Alexander]

Before that, Malawi. The body of the late Malawian leader Bingu Wamu Tarika has been flown back from South Africa more than a week after his death. And before that, more sad news, this time from Guinea Bissau.

[Justin Wolfers]

The president of the tiny West African nation of Guinea Bissau, Malam Bakai Sanya, has died in a military hospital in Paris.

[Ruth Alexander]

That's four African leaders who have died in office this year alone. Disruptive for the countries concerned, tragic for the leaders families. And though this might not be the main concern. A lot of work for reporters.

[Simon Allison]

I seem to be getting an awful lot of calls in the middle of the night telling me an African president had died. And to be honest, I'm getting a bit sick of it.

[Ruth Alexander]

Simon Allison, a correspondent for the Daily Maverick news website in South Africa, has been trying to answer what to him seems to be the obvious question here,

[Simon Allison]

why do African presidents keep dying?

[Ruth Alexander]

So Simon's been doing some investigating and the resulting article has attracted a lot of attention online.

[Simon Allison]

I found that 2012 has been a particularly bad year for presidential mortality. But the trend goes back a bit further. Going back to 2008, I found that there were nine African presidents that had died in office in the space of four years. To have nine leaders die seems quite excessive. And, and looking further afield at the rest of the world as a sort of comparison, and I only found three other countries whose president had died in office in the last four years. That was North Korea, Poland and Barbados in the Caribbean. And that was it.

[Ruth Alexander]

Our own statistics correspondent Charlotte MacDonald has been having a look to see if there's more to it. Charlotte, it's certainly true that leaders are

[Charlotte MacDonald]

dying in office in Africa in higher numbers than on any other continent.

[Ruth Alexander]

In fact, Simons underestimated the problem. Not nine, but ten. Ten have passed away since 2008.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Yes, you might think the obvious explanation is that African leaders are older than those of other continents, but that's not really the case. The average age of an African leader is 61, but that's the same as Asia. South American leaders are younger. They're 59 on average, while Europeans are 55.

[Ruth Alexander]

But were the leaders who have died older than average?

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Yes, their average was 67. But another thing to consider is life expectancy, which among the general population is lower in Africa than in places like Europe, Latin America. And as Dr. George Leeson, a gerontologist from Oxford University in the UK, says, a poor childhood can have a lasting

[Narrator/Reporter]

impact for African presidents. They will, before they become elected as president, have lived a relatively disadvantaged life. So once they get into the presidential office, even though they will be living a lifestyle far, far, far removed from that of their fellow citizens, which would increase their life expectancy in relation to those fellow citizens even more, they do have an accum disadvantageous lifestyle which they have to pay back on at some time.

[Ruth Alexander]

Although not all African leaders will have had poor childhoods, of course. But is there another factor in all of this politics? The stereotypical African leader clings on to power until he drops well.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Simon Allison isn't sure the facts fit that explanation.

[Simon Allison]

This is true of some of the leaders who died in office, particularly we're talking about Omar Bongo, Conte and Gaddafi, all of whom were old school dictators who were never going to leave power voluntarily. But the others are different. So Melissa Nowi, who just died recently, he has clung onto power for a long time, but Also he's only 57, so he doesn't really fall into the dying in old age in office category. And all the others were within their constitutional term limits and hadn't even fiddled with them yet.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Of course, all this might be statistically meaningless, a blip if you like. But Simon says that whatever's really going on, it creates uncertainty.

[Simon Allison]

Obviously, a death in office leads to a power vacuum, and power vacuums can be dangerous and destabilising. Look at what happened in Guinea Bissau when Sanha died. A coup followed very shortly afterwards. This is a difficult situation for Africa to find itself in because it historically has not dealt very well with power vacuums. However, there is some cause for optimism on this front. In Zambia, in Malawi, in Ghana and in Nigeria, the death of the president was followed by the constitutional succession with a minimum of violence and dispute around the issue. And I think this is a very encouraging sign for Africa's development.

[Ruth Alexander]

Simon Allison, thanks to him and to you, Charlotte. Now to one of our listeners, Mark

[Mark Knight (Listener)]

Knight Dear More or less, I'm at the age when many of my friends are getting married. As someone who doesn't really believe in marriage. I often wonder why they do it. If I'm ever in the position of having to decide whether to get married or not, what should I do? P.S. i'm single, but you never know. Forewarned is forearmed.

[Ruth Alexander]

Well, Mark, the question of marriage is approached very differently in different parts of the world. But we want to help. So let's make this relevant to you, a European man wondering whether marriage is worth it. So what does the evidence tell us? Well, studies have shown that married couples live longer, but it's very difficult to be sure whether marriage causes good health or. Or good health causes marriage. Healthier people may seem like better mates. The same goes for the prospects of any children you might have. In the uk, where it's relatively common for unmarried couples to have children, researchers at the Institute for Fiscal Studies have been looking at the evidence. The offspring of married parents, on average, do better. But once you've controlled for parental background, they say the gap disappears. So it may not be the marriage that gives children an advantage, but. But the fact that people who are married tend to be, on average, better educated and better off. It's also thought that married couples are more likely to get fat, but more likely to cut down on the cigarettes and alcohol, particularly men. However, the evidence isn't conclusive. Maybe this is something we'll come back to when we have more time for it, but perhaps there's an economic argument to be made for marriage. I hope you don't mind, Mark, but I've been discussing your situation with two economists, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers. They're actually a couple. They're not married, but they have given this kind of question a lot of thought.

[Justin Wolfers]

You can get many of the benefits of marriage just by moving in together. Maybe what Mark really wants is commitment. Well, marriage doesn't really give you commitment because you can always get divorced. If that's the case, maybe Mark and his girlfriend should be thinking about getting tattoos.

[Betsy Stevenson]

One of the reasons why people have big wedding ceremonies with lots of people there is because it creates social pressure for you to honor your commitment to stand by this other person in bad times and in good times.

[Ruth Alexander]

Is it an insurance policy?

[Justin Wolfers]

The way lots of relationships work is very much an insurance policy. If Mark, you lose your job, don't worry, your partner will also still be earning an income and hopefully she'll still share that with you. Now, there is a question. Do you need to get married to get that insurance? And again, really, it comes down to you get the insurance because you decide you'll stick together for richer, for poorer, for better, for worse. And so you need some way to make sure that when you lose your job and become a less attractive partner Mark, that your partner will still want to stay with you. A priest might recommend marriage because then in the eyes of God, you have to stay together or else you will have committed a sin.

[Betsy Stevenson]

And the question is whether marriage gives you more commitment. And I don't think that for everyone it does, but for many people it does.

[Ruth Alexander]

I've got to ask, you're a couple, but you're not married. Why is that?

[Justin Wolfers]

So we do want to be committed to each other. We do want to stay together for the long run. And I'll tell you the truth, the thing that will keep me committed to Betsy is not a piece of paper that's issued by a church or a government. It's our daughter. So I think we're definitely together for the long haul. We get that commitment technology from a different source. The essence of marriage is really trying to make it more expensive to be apart than to be together. That's what a wedding ring does. That's what a mortgage does. That's what kids do. That's what promises in front of friends and families do. So there are lots of different ways of achieving that.

[Ruth Alexander]

Justin Walford from the University of Pennsylvania and Betsy Stevenson from the University of Michigan in the U.S. mark, I have a feeling we won't have changed your mind. But if you do marry, or even if you don't, make sure you do the maths now. We've just got time for a quick test. Can you spot the mistake? The Tunisian National Tourist Board has announced that UK visitors to Tunisia more than doubled last month, with a 50.7% increase. Did you get it? Do please send your comments and questions to moreallessbc.co.uk and you can download more editions of this program@our bbcworldservice.com more or less. I'm Ruth Alexander. The producer was Richard Knight. Until next time. Goodbye.

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