Are Man Utd a one-man team?

Summary

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More or Less – Are Man Utd a One-Man Team?

BBC Radio 4 | Host: Ruth Alexander | Broadcast Date: April 27, 2013

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Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less, hosted by Ruth Alexander and featuring Ben Carter, dives into the statistics behind the common accusation in football: that certain clubs, most notably Manchester United in the 2012/13 season, are "one-man teams," overly reliant on the contributions of a single star player. The show analyses Premier League data to assess whether such claims are fair, before shifting to a discussion on the misuse of statistics in criminal trials, illustrating the real-world consequences of faulty reasoning in courtrooms.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Are Man Utd a One-Man Team?

• Context:
  Manchester United won the Premier League, with many attributing their success to star striker Robin Van Persie.
• Ruth Alexander's Methodology:
  • Created an alternative league table by subtracting points directly attributable to each team's top scorer.
  • Example: Removing Van Persie’s hat trick vs. Aston Villa turns Man Utd’s win into a draw—costing them 2 points (01:07).
• Handling of Specific Cases:
  • If two top scorers net in the same game, their goals cancel each other out for this analysis (01:41).

2. Alternative Premier League Table Findings (02:04)

• Man Utd remain top, but the gap narrows:
  • United lead by 7 points (instead of more), Arsenal rises to second.
  • Man City and Chelsea trail by just 1 point.
• Dependence on Van Persie:
  • Scored 30% of United’s goals, earning 23% of total points (02:23).
  • Compared to Arsenal, City, and Chelsea, who spread goals among more players.

3. Similar Analyses for Other Teams

• Tottenham Hotspur: 'One-Man Team'?

  • Gareth Bale’s 18 goals earned Spurs 15 points.
  • Without Bale, Tottenham would fall to sixth, 11 points off a Champions League spot (02:46).
  • Moussa Dembele’s unseen influence:
    • Spurs win 67% of games with Dembele, only 29% without him—arguably making him even more vital (03:09).

• Liverpool & Luis Suarez:

  • Removing Suarez’s goals leaves Liverpool unchanged in 7th (03:46).
  • Shows his individual contributions weren’t season-defining.

• Premier League’s Most Valuable Player:

  • Christian Benteke (Aston Villa):

    • Scored 42% of Villa's goals, earning 38% of their points.
    • His efforts could be the difference between relegation and survival (04:03).

    “Christian Benteke would be the most valuable player for me just because of the huge financial implications of getting relegated ... without him, I don't think they would be.”
    — Alistair Tweedale (04:19)

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4. Notable Quotes & Moments

• Ben Carter on United and Van Persie:

  • “United would still be top of the table even if Van Persie hadn’t scored any goals.” (00:52)

• On Dembele’s Importance to Spurs:

  • “Whilst Bale is the one scoring the goals that win the games, there’s an argument that Dembele is as important, if not more important, to Tottenham.” — Alistair Tweedale (03:09)

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[04:38] — Segment Shift: The Use and Abuse of Statistics in Court

1. Forensic Evidence—Amanda Knox & Raffaele Sollecito Case

• DNA Testing Misunderstood:

  • The appeal judge declined to re-test a tiny DNA sample from a knife, viewing repeated unreliable tests as pointless.

  • Statistician Coralie Colmez counters:
    “If you have an unreliable test, you do it again ... you can be a lot more certain of that answer.” (05:36)

  • Analogy Used:

    • Like tossing a coin suspected of being biased: multiple consistent outcomes increase confidence in the verdict (06:03).

2. Lucia de Berk—A Cautionary Tale

• Dutch Nurse Wrongly Convicted Using Out-of-Context Stats:

  • Initially jailed on odds of “342 million to one” of her presence being a coincidence at multiple patient deaths (07:08).

  • Key errors:

    • Prosecutors ignored deaths she physically could not have caused.
    • Upon correctly recalculating probabilities, the statistical case against her vanished, and she was acquitted (08:02).

    “She had proven that she wasn’t even there for [some deaths], and they recalculated the probability.”
    — Coralie Colmez (08:18)

  • Explained:

    • With 250,000 nurses in the Netherlands, some will inevitably be present at unlikely clusters of deaths.
    • Underlines the need for statistical literacy among judges, juries, and prosecutors.

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Important Timestamps

• 00:13 — Introduction; framing the “one-man team” question
• 01:07 — Explanation of the alternative league table methodology
• 02:04 — Results: United still leads, but by a slimmer margin
• 02:46 — Tottenham's reliance on Bale (and Dembele)
• 04:03 — Christian Benteke: the most truly “valuable” player
• 04:38 — Shift to discussion on statistics in criminal trials
• 05:36 — Analysis of DNA test reliability (Amanda Knox case)
• 07:08 — Lucia de Berk’s case and lessons for courtroom statistics

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Conclusion

Through data and creative analysis, the episode debunks the simplistic view that Manchester United—or any top team—owe their success to just one player, though it does highlight variations in player dependence. The second half provides a sobering exploration of how statistical blindness or abuse can have real-world, even life-or-death, consequences in the legal system—emphasising the vital role of proper mathematical reasoning in high-stakes decisions.

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Memorable Sign-Off:
“Statman Alistair Tweedale from WhoScored.com ... We'll leave you to get back to your spreadsheet now.” (04:38)

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For more numbers in the news and to suggest topics, listeners are encouraged to email the show.

Transcript

[A]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[B]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander and here's Ben Carter. Football fans are often accusing rival sides of being one man teams. The implication being that the club spent vast sums of money on one star player who drives the team up the table. But is there really anything in this? Ben, you're a Manchester United fan. Your side were a one man team this season, weren't they? No, but that's not what the manager of your big rivals, Manchester City reckons.

[C]

True.

[A]

At the beginning of the season, Roberto Mancini said we would win the title back because we'd signed striker Robin Van Persie from Arsenal.

[B]

And you have indeed just won the league.

[A]

Yes, van Persie scored 24 goals in all and it was his hat trick that clinchinated the title. But you know, United would still be top of the table even if Van Persie hadn't scored any goals.

[B]

But I think a Man United fan would say that, wouldn't you?

[A]

Well, yes, but this is more or less. I have methodology. I've created an alternative Premier League table which takes out all the points earned by the goals scored by each club's leading scorer. For example, if you took away Robin Van Persie's three goals against Aston Villa, the game would have ended up as a 00 draw and United would have earned one point rather than three. Meaning Van Persie's net was two points. But it's unfair to do it just for Man United. So I've done it for the leading scorer in every Premier League team.

[B]

So what do you do when two teams top scorers score in the same game?

[A]

Well, if they both score once, they cancel each other out. But if we take the game where Liverpool beat Norwich 5 2, Luis Suarez scored a hat trick, so if you take his goals out, the game looks like a draw. But Norwich's leading goal scorer, Grant Holt scored one goal for his side. So in effect Liverpool would have won the game without Suarez's goals.

[B]

So what does your alternative league table look like then?

[A]

Well, of course United are still top of the league, but only by seven points. Arsenal move up to second position, leaving both Manchester City and Chelsea just one point behind.

[B]

So Manchester United might not be a one man team, but they are more heavily dependent on one man than at Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.

[A]

Yes, Van Persie has scored 30% of Manchester United's goals And those goals have earned his team 23% of their overall points tally. Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City. City spread their goals around a lot more and as a result, they are a lot closer to United in my table than in the real one.

[B]

What about Tottenham? Surely they're a one man team. Gareth Bale has done amazingly well for them this year.

[A]

He's the favourite for all the awards and understandably so. Bale's 18 goals have earned Tottenham 15 points and without him they'd be in sixth position and 11 points away from a Champions League place. But Alistair Tweedale, editor at statistics website WhoScored.com says that despite Bale being at the top of his website player ratings, there is a man who's arguably more

[C]

important to spurs cause Moussa Dembele when he does play. Tottenham have won 67% of their games compared to 29% without him. Those are both respectively bigger and smaller values than with and without Bale. So whilst Bale is the one scoring the goals that win the games, there's an argument that Dembele is as important, if not more important, to Tottenham.

[B]

Of course, one man who won't be making a contribution for his team for the rest of this season or for the first six games of next season is Luis Suarez.

[A]

Ruth, what's with the music?

[B]

Oh, that's my biting sutter.

[A]

Right, ok, well, if you take out Suarez's goals and the points they earned Liverpool, they'd be exactly where they are now, in seventh position.

[B]

So Suarez's goals weren't as important as people might think. But come on, Ben, statistically, who is the Premier League's most valuable player?

[A]

Well, he plays for a team who may still end up getting relegated. But having scored 42% of his team's goals, which have earned 38% of the points, Christian Benteke has done all he can to keep Aston Villa in the Premier League. Alistair Tweedale agrees.

[C]

Christian Benteke would be the most valuable player for me just because of the huge financial implications of getting relegated. And the difference for Aston Villa is just that they will be in the Premier League next season, probably in no small part down to Christian Benteke. And without him, I don't think they would be.

[B]

Statman Alastair Tweedale from WhoScored.com and thanks, Ben. We'll leave you to get back to your spreadsheet now. The murder of British exchange student Meredith Kircher in Italy in 2007 made headlines around the world. Her housemate, US student Amanda Knox, and Amanda's ex boyfriend, Raffaele Solicito have recently had their acquittals for the killing and now face a rerun of their appeal. They'd been initially convicted of her murder alongside a local man, but were later freed on appeal, largely after doubts were raised about the forensic evidence against them. One of the key pieces of forensic evidence that had helped to convict them was a kitchen knife found in Mr. Solicito's kitchen, which was said to have Ms. Kircher's DNA on the blade. But the DNA sample was tiny and the appeal judge thought it was too unreliable a piece of evidence. He refused to have it tested again, as suggested by a forensic scientist. But this was a mistake. According to author of Maths on Trial

[D]

Coralie Colmes, his justification for that was that just repeating this unreliable test wouldn't make the answer any more reliable. The thing with statistics and probability is that people feel like it's quite intuitive in that, okay, this is unreliable, so it's never going to be more reliable. But actually the mathematics tells you that if you have an unreliable test, you do it again is just as unreliable, but you get the same answer, then you can be a lot more certain of that answer.

[B]

So it helps here to think about how to test whether a coin is biased. You toss it 10 times and get nine heads and one tail. Pretty suspicious, but you couldn't say it was biased beyond all reasonable doubt. You toss it another 10 times and get eight heads and two tails. Considering the two tests together, it now looks very likely the coin is biased. You've tossed it 20 times and got heads 17 times.

[D]

What this means in the case of the knife in the murder is that if it were tested again, and once again the DNA was Meredith's profile, we could be a lot more certain that the DNA on the knife is indeed Meredith's.

[B]

And if the knife were tested again and the DNA profile didn't match Meredith

[D]

Kirch's, that would be very good news for Amanda and Raffaele. And that would mean that this major piece of evidence against them would be discredited.

[B]

In Coralie Colmes view, this isn't a one off, she says numbers get used and abused in courtrooms all the time. And more use should be made of proper mathematical and statistics experts. One recent example saw a Dutch nurse, Lucia de Bourke, sentenced to life for the murders of seven patients and the attempted murders of another three. She'd been present at the deaths and resuscitations of an unusually large number of patients. There was an investigation and a statistician said the odds were 342 million to one that it was just a coincidence she'd been on duty when all the incidents occurred. To prison Lucia de Bourke went, and there she might have stayed if it hadn't been for the amateur statistical sleuthing of a Dr. Mette de Nou. Dirksen had become suspicious of the probability and reasoning used in the case and along with her brother Ton, began a campaign to prove a miscarriage of justice had occurred. One important factor was that Ms. De Bourke had been accused of causing some deaths which she had later managed to prove couldn't have involved her because she hadn't been present. Coralie Colmes the deaths were just forgotten

[D]

about in the trial and never spoken of again. But they never recalculated the probabilities that they had calculated in the very beginning. What the brother and sister team did is they struck off all the ones that she had proven that she wasn't even there for, and they recalculated the probability.

[B]

The probability of her being present for all the unexplained deaths was still enough to raise questions. But if you consider the number of nurses at work in the Netherlands, you'd expect to see some unusual looking but innocent clusters of unexplained deaths on some of their watches. Coralie Kollmers says there are a quarter of a million nurses in the Netherlands, so you'd expect a couple of hundred to be involved in a set of circumstances similar to those of Lucia de Bourke. She was acquitted in April 2010. To prevent more mathematical miscarriages of justice, Coralie Colmers says we need to have better educated judges and juries and that that begins in the maths classroom. If there are any numbers you'd like us to take a closer look at, do email us. Our address is more or lessbc.co.uk and you can sign up for our free Download at our bbcworldservice.com MoreOrless There are

[A]

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