More or Less: Behind the Stats

Episode: Are millions of people getting Motability cars for anxiety and ADHD?
Host: Tim Harford (BBC Radio 4)
Date: October 15, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Tim Harford and the More or Less team critically examine several statistical claims that have been circulating in UK political discourse and media. The central theme is demystifying the numbers and investigating the validity behind statements about disability benefits (especially the Motability car scheme and conditions such as anxiety and ADHD), inheritance tax changes for farmers, and other health-related statistics. The episode also features a segment on marathon training, applying statistical insights to everyday life.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Inheritance Tax Changes for Farmers

Claim Examined:
Anna Turley MP claimed that "97% of farmers aren't affected" by proposed inheritance tax changes.

• Policy Outline:

  • From April 2026, the government will cap farming assets that can be handed on tax-free at £1 million, in addition to standard allowances. Anything above will be taxed at 20% (lower than the 40% for non-farming assets).
  • This change has sparked worries among farmers about the potential breakup of family farms.

• Clarification of the Statistics:

  • Anna Turley referred to "3% of farmers," but actually, the relevant statistic is the percentage of farm estates affected.
  • Accurate Figure:
    • About 480 out of 1,500 farm estates annually (c. 31%) would be affected, not 3%. (04:34)

• Expert Input:

  • Dr. Arun Advani, Director, Centre for the Analysis of Taxation, University of Warwick:

    "That number is actually closer to 31%." (04:43)

• Real Impact:

  • Of these, only about 70 estates a year (4%) would be unable to pay the tax bill from non-farming assets, which might force sales or loans. (05:42–06:17)

• Behavioural Effects:

  • Many farmers may attempt to avoid the new tax through gifts more than seven years before death. (07:12)
  • Initial years will see higher tax revenues as elderly farmers have less opportunity to reorganize assets in time. (08:01)

2. Motability Cars, Anxiety, and ADHD

Claim Examined:
At the Conservative Party conference, leaders claimed "millions" are receiving Motability cars for anxiety and ADHD.

• Scheme Explained:

  • Motability allows eligible disabled people to exchange mobility benefit for a new car, scooter, or wheelchair.

• The Real Numbers:

  • Working-age disability benefits for anxiety/ADHD:

    • ~600,000 people receive related benefits.
    • Only ~190,000 may receive the ‘enhanced mobility’ component, the basic requirement for Motability.
      (10:20)
    • Not all of these actually get a car.

    "About a third or so, about 190,000 get what's called the enhanced mobility element of the benefit. And that's what's required to get a car through Motability. But...certainly not everyone who gets that will have a car." – Tom Waters (10:20)

  • Total Participants:

    • Motability says there are 860,000 users (cars, scooters, wheelchairs)—not just cars, and not just for anxiety or ADHD. (11:21)

  • Upright Bound:

    • Under 200,000 may be eligible for cars due to anxiety/ADHD, substantially fewer actually receive one; millions claim is "not true." (11:10)

  • ADHD Specifics:

    • 88,000 get PIP with ADHD as primary, about 43,000 get the enhanced mobility award. Many are young (16–19). (12:53–13:32)

• Why Might ADHD Qualify?

  • PIP’s mobility assessment scores both "moving around" (physical) and "planning and following journeys" (cognitive).

    "Perhaps it might be that for some people with ADHD, that condition makes it more difficult for them to plan and follow journeys." – Tom Waters (14:02)

  • Assessments are ability-based, not condition-based.

• Policy Implications:

  • Promising to restrict Motability access by diagnosis (e.g., banning ADHD as a qualifying condition) would require a fundamental overhaul of how disability benefits are assessed. (15:56)

3. The "Two in Five Men Die Too Young" Statistic

Claim Examined:
Movember campaign claims "two in five men die too young."

• Definition of 'Too Young':

  • The underlying data defines 'too young' as dying under the age of 75.

    "The definition used here is under the age of 75." – Stuart MacDonald (17:40)

  • This is close to the average male life expectancy (~78), so by statistical necessity, many will die before then.

• Actual Numbers:

  • 2021 deaths data, influenced by bulges in population age, say 4 in 10 men die before 75.
  • A better approach uses National Life Tables, which smooth population cohort effects:
    • Current risk of dying before age 75 is about 3 in 10 for men. (21:13)
    • Breakdown:
      • Before 40: 2%
      • Before 60: 10%
      • Before 75: 30% (21:31)
  • Life expectancy measures (mean, median, mode) vary and mean often underestimates typical longevity. (21:59)

4. Marathon Training: What Does the Data Say?

Host Tim Harford discusses his marathon training effort and seeks advice grounded in data.

• Dr. Danny Munith (Exercise Physiology, University of Hertfordshire):

  • Analysis based on over 100,000 runners' Strava data before the marathon (24:39).

  • Findings:

    1. More Training → Better Performance:

       "Those that did the marathon quicker also were those that trained more. So there is a clear dose response relationship between ... training and ... performance." (25:24)

    2. Training Intensity Matters:
       • Training split into zones:
         • Zone 1: Light, conversational pace.
         • Zone 2: Moderate, hard to chatter.
         • Zone 3: Intense.
       • Most training (70–80%) should be in Zone 1, minority in Zones 2 and 3. But for marathons, some training in Zone 2 is also valuable (27:03).

  • Host Training Assessment:

    "Those that do similar training to what you are currently doing do the marathon in around close to four hours." – Dr. Danny Munith (28:11)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On misleading inheritance tax claims:

  "It's wrong. It's very wrong." — Tim Harford (04:08–04:09)

• On Motability eligibility:

  "Definitely not millions." — Program Host / Narrator (11:10)

• On ADHD and qualifying for Motability:

  "It's not at all clear how Kemi Badenoch would fulfil her promise of preventing people with specific conditions, such as ADHD, from receiving Motability cars. Because PIP assessments aren't determined by specific conditions, that promise wouldn't just be a tweak, it would require a radical rethinking of how disability benefits work." (15:56)

• On 'dying too young':

  "75 is only three years off the average life expectancy for men. So statistically speaking, should we really be surprised that a lot of people don't live longer than that?" — Program Host / Narrator (18:03)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Inheritance tax changes for farmers: 02:21–09:02
• Motability cars, anxiety, and ADHD claim: 09:02–15:56
• "Two in five men die too young" stat: 16:55–22:28
• Marathon training advice: 24:22–28:36

Summary Table

| Segment/Claim | Actual Stat / Takeaway | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|------------| | Farmers inheritance tax reform affects only 3% | Actually about 31% of farm estates | 04:34 | | Millions get Motability cars for anxiety/ADHD | <200k eligible, fewer actually get a car | 10:20–11:10| | All/nearly all Motability cars go for ADHD | About 43,000 with ADHD could qualify; most don’t| 12:53 | | Two in five men die "too young" | Defined as under 75; actual risk is 3 in 10 | 21:13 | | Marathon training for best time | Run more, mostly at moderate pace (Zone 1) | 25:24 |

Conclusion

The episode expertly debunks misleading statistics about disability benefits and farmers' inheritance tax, providing nuanced, expert-backed explanations. Listeners are left with a greater appreciation of how numbers can be misrepresented—and the importance of context, definitions, and critical thinking. The segment on marathon training brings statistical thinking into everyday life, underscoring the show’s mission to provide clarity, accuracy, and useful insight “behind the stats.”