Are there more black men in college or prison in the US?

Summary

Podcast Summary: More or Less (BBC Radio 4) Episode Title: Are there More Black Men in College or Prison in the US?
Date: March 18, 2013
Host: Ruth Alexander (with Wesley Stevenson)

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Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less dives into the widely-circulated claim, famously stated by Barack Obama in 2007, that “there are more young black men languishing in prison than attend colleges and universities across America.” Host Ruth Alexander and producer Wesley Stevenson critically examine the origins, accuracy, and impact of this “zombie statistic,” exploring how and why it persists despite being debunked, and discussing its broader implications for perceptions of black men in the US.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Origin and Spread of the Claim

• Barack Obama's Statement (00:20):
  The episode opens with a clip of Barack Obama in 2007 making the claim about black men in prison vs. college.

• Repetition and Endurance:

  • Ruth Alexander notes how the claim has become a rallying point used by various public speakers and activists.
  • Wesley Stevenson introduces academic guest Ivory Tolson, who admits to having used the statistic himself in the past.

2. Re-examining the Numbers

• Ivory Tolson’s Reflection and Motivation (01:41):
  Tolson describes how he began to question the utility—and accuracy—of the statistic, worrying it demoralized rather than motivated young black men.

  • Quote: “I started to feel like a lot of the statistics that we were using was more of a burden to them than the motivation.” (Ivory Tolson, 01:41)

• Tolson's Research (02:16):

  • Tolson reviewed current data and found a persistent, positive trend: by the time of the episode, there were approximately 600,000 more black men in college than in prison.
  • The misconception continued to dominate discussions despite these facts.
  • Quote: “The college population among young black males is about 600,000 more than the prison population. Yet that myth is still very pervasive out there.” (Ivory Tolson, 02:16)

3. Flaws in the Original Statistic

• Origins with the Justice Policy Institute (02:43):

  • The original comparison dates back to a 2002 report using 2000 census data, which failed to account for underreporting by historically black universities.

• Tolson’s Investigation (03:02):

  • Noted an implausible 108% jump in college attendance over a decade, which he determined was due to underreporting and data collection gaps in earlier years.
  • Quote: “What appears to have happened was back when they pulled the numbers, there were just a lot of colleges that weren't reporting their numbers.” (Ivory Tolson, 03:02)

• Missing Statistics (03:49):

  • Even Tolson himself was not counted as a graduate student in those figures at the time, underlining flaws in the data.

• Finding:

  • “So not only is it not true now this claim, it probably wasn't true when it was first made 13 years ago.” (Ruth Alexander, 04:11)

4. The “Zombie Statistic” and Its Social Impact

• Persistence Despite Facts (04:18):

  • Wesley Stevenson coins the term “zombie statistic” for this claim that refuses to die.

• Justice Policy Institute Perspective (04:38):

  • Interview with Melissa Neal, a senior researcher, who concedes:
    • The report did not adequately highlight data limitations.
    • The intent was to draw attention to disparities, not mislead.
    • Quote: "Our primary goal was to draw attention to disparities in both education and the criminal justice system...we probably should have done a better job." (Melissa Neal, 04:38)
  • Ruth Alexander notes the organization may have informed “people without the full facts.” (05:10)

• Enduring Inequality (05:21):

  • Neal emphasizes that, while more black men are in college than prison, disparities remain:
    • Black males are “still disproportionately channeled into the criminal justice system.”
    • They “still not able to have the same educational success as their peers of other ethnicities.”
    • Quote: “African American males are still disproportionately channeled into the criminal justice system, and they are still not able to have the same educational success as their peers of other ethnicities.” (Melissa Neal, 05:21)

• Statistical Overview (05:36):

  • Black people make up 40% of the prison population but only 12% of the US population.
  • Black men continue to lag behind white colleagues in graduation rates and representation at top universities.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Ivory Tolson (on the burden of negative statistics):
  “They know that they could do better. They want to do better. And so I started to feel like a lot of the statistics that we were using was more of a burden to them than the motivation.” (01:41)

• On the persistence of misinformation:
  “In the face of the truth, this zombie statistic refuses to die.” (Wesley Stevenson, 04:18)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:20: Barack Obama’s 2007 quote about black men in prison vs. college.
• 01:13: Introduction of Dr. Ivory Tolson and his initial views.
• 01:41: Tolson’s turning point regarding the use of alarming statistics.
• 02:16: Tolson’s findings: more black men in college than in prison.
• 02:43: Discussion of original report by Justice Policy Institute.
• 03:02: Analysis of underreporting at black colleges.
• 04:11: Summary: the statistic was never really true.
• 04:38: Justice Policy Institute’s response to critiques.
• 05:21: Continuing disparities in education and incarceration.

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Tone & Style

The episode maintains the BBC’s signature balance of professionalism, curiosity, and clarity. Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stevenson employ gentle skepticism, respectful inquiry, and a focus on evidence, while their guests reflect thoughtfully on the real-world effects of persistent statistical myths. The tone acknowledges the gravity of racial disparities, but keeps the focus on data-driven discussion.

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Conclusion

This episode of More or Less skillfully dissects a pervasive myth in US social policy discourse, tracing the origins and consequences of a misleading statistic about black men in college and prison. While the myth has been debunked, Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stevenson remind listeners that significant disparities in education and incarceration endure—pointing to the importance of careful, accurate use of statistics in public debate.

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For more editions of “More or Less,” visit BBC.co.uk/moreorless. For feedback and questions: [e-mail].

Transcript

[BBC Announcer]

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[Ruth Alexander]

hello, this is More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander, and this week we're looking at this claim.

[Barack Obama]

We still have more work to do. We have more work to do when more young black men languish in prison than attend colleges and universities across America.

[Ruth Alexander]

That was Barack Obama in 2007, before he became US president, making the claim that there are more black men in prison than in College in the U.S. wesley Stevenson's here with me and Wesley. Barack Obama isn't the only person to have seen the power in this statement.

[Wesley Stevenson]

No, it's something you'll hear repeated again and again.

[Ivory Tolson]

My last time hearing it was last Friday at Howard University's Charter Day program, and it was our keynote speaker.

[Wesley Stevenson]

What was your instant reaction when you heard those words come out of his mouth?

[Ivory Tolson]

It wasn't necessarily a visceral reaction. More humor, you know, Here we go again.

[Wesley Stevenson]

This is Ivory Tolson. He's an associate professor of psychology at Howard University in Washington, D.C. and he's recently written about the use of this claim. It was a statistic that he himself has even used when he wrote a paper back in 2008 called Pushing for Better Educational Success for Black Young Men. But he's realized that while making this claim is good for rallying activists, it's also having a negative effect on young black men in the US when they

[Ivory Tolson]

heard things like, there are more black men in prison than in college, it did something different to their spirit. These are young black males who are still trying to figure it out. They know that they could do better. They want to do better. And so I started to feel like a lot of the statistics that we were using was more of a burden to them than the motivation.

[Ruth Alexander]

It was this that made him begin to wonder, was this fact that there are more black men in prison than in college in the US Actually true? He started looking at the numbers and found an interesting trend.

[Ivory Tolson]

I found that year after year, we were gaining less lots of black males in college. However, the prison population had remained relatively static, and the college population among young black males is about 600,000 more than the prison population. Yet that myth is still very pervasive out there.

[Wesley Stevenson]

So it isn't true now, but what about when it was first published? The original claim came from a report by the campaign group, the Justice Policy Institute. It was. It was based on figures from the year 2000. So ivory re examined the numbers that we used and compared them to the current numbers of black men in college, and something struck him as odd.

[Ivory Tolson]

What I found strange was how did we get a 108% jump in the black male college population? It didn't seem feasible for us to achieve that in only 10 years. I looked at the colleges that had had significant black male populations today, but had either no or very little black males reported 10 years ago. And what I found was a lot of historically black universities was on that list. My own alma mater was on that list, and I was enrolled as a graduate student there at the time. And so what appears to have happened was back when they pulled the numbers, there were just a lot of colleges that weren't reporting their numbers.

[Ruth Alexander]

So there were many black college students missing from the numbers that the Justice Policy Institute used back in the early 2000s. And even ivory himself was missing from the college attendance figures. It's not often that we actually get to meet a missing statistic.

[Wesley Stevenson]

I mean, he says that when he looked at the census data from the early 2000s, this shows there were more black men in college than in prison at that time.

[Ruth Alexander]

So not only is it not true now this claim, it probably wasn't true when it was first made 13 years ago.

[Wesley Stevenson]

And yet in the face of the truth, this zombie statistic refuses to die. Now, you can see that when it was first written in the Justice Policy Institute report, it must have seemed like a really simple and grabby comparison, and it's one that they've stood by in the past. But how do they feel about it now? I asked one of their senior researchers, Melissa Neal.

[Melissa Neal]

I'm not sure if our researchers were really thinking about the number of colleges reporting. That was not a limitation that we clearly expressed in our write up. So, you know, I recognize that we probably should have done a better job of that. We definitely hate to see that people have misconstrued our intent, but our primary goal was to draw attention to disparities in both education and the criminal justice system. And so we one of the best ways to do that is to inform

[Ruth Alexander]

people, although in this case, it seems they were informing people without the full facts.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Yes, but she did actually raise another very good point.

[Melissa Neal]

African American males are still disproportionately channeled into the criminal justice system, and they are still not able to have the same educational success as their peers of other ethnicities.

[Wesley Stevenson]

So there may be more black men in college than in prison, but this isn't really the end of the story, black men still lag behind their white counterparts in the number attending top rated universities and they lag behind them in terms of the numbers who graduate. And in prison. Black people account for 40% of the prison population, but only 12% of the US population. So there's still work to be done.

[Ruth Alexander]

Thanks, Wes. And stay there because we're going to look now at the Kenyan elections. You might remember we spoke about the elections a couple of weeks ago and about how one prominent political scientist, Mitai Ngunyi, was making a bold statement that the election was a foregone conclusion. He said everyone would simply vote for the candidate from their particular ethnic group. His favourite for the presidency was Uhuru Kenyatta because he, he said, commanded a much larger set of bankable voters than his nearest rival, Raila Odinga. This was at odds with what the polls were predicting. So what happened?

[Wesley Stevenson]

Well, Motai Ngunyi got the result right and the pollsters got it wrong. Most polling companies had the two main candidates neck and neck or very close, and they were predicting that the election would probably go to a second round

[Ruth Alexander]

and this didn't happen. Uhura Kenyatta won a first round victory by getting more than 50% of the vote plus one vote, and he beat Raila Odinga by 7 percentage points. So why were the polls so wrong?

[Wesley Stevenson]

Well, the pollsters have been very quiet on this so far, but Ken Apollo is a Kenyan political blogger and a PhD candidate at Stanford University in the United States. He thinks the pollsters made a big mistake in assuming that turnout would be the same in the strongholds of both candidates.

[Ken Apollo]

In those areas where Odinga beat Kenyatta, the average turnout was only 83.5%, well below the national average of 86%. While in areas where Kenyatta beat Odinga, the average turnout was 89.2%. And so this shows that by assuming a uniform turnout across the country, they were underestimating Kenyatta's Support by about 3 percentage points. Either way, I did a quick analysis and what I found is that had Odinga matched Kenyatta's turnout rates in the places where he beat Kenyatta by more than 30 percentage points, he would have gained 400,000 extra votes. And so, you know, just to put this in perspective, Kenyatta beat Odinga by just over 800,000 votes. And so he would have halved the difference just by matching tanout.

[Wesley Stevenson]

So registered voters likely to vote for Uhuru Kenyatta turned out in greater numbers than those registered who were more likely to vote for Raila Odinga.

[Ruth Alexander]

But while Matai Ngani got the result right. He wasn't right about everything.

[Wesley Stevenson]

No, because he said Kenyatta's victory would come from everyone voting along ethnic lines, which is something the pollsters had rejected. And and although the core ethnic vote of the two main candidates did vote as Ngunyi had predicted, they also got votes from outside their core ethnic groups too.

[Ruth Alexander]

For example, one of the smaller ethnic groups, the Luye, didn't all vote for their candidate, Mohsalia Mudavadi. Many voted for Raila Odinga, who is a Luo, instead.

[Wesley Stevenson]

And so Mutayungunyi was wrong to say that everyone would vote along ethnic lines and Raila Odinga was able to attract voters from other ethnic groups, as the pollsters had predicted. But but this wasn't enough to offset the problem he had with turnout amongst his core vote.

[Ruth Alexander]

Thanks Wes, and thank you for listening. You can catch up on other [e-mail] more or less and if you want to contact the program, you can email us at more or lessbc.co.uk There are

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