WS MoreOrLess: Caps off to Rooney

Summary

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Podcast Summary: More or Less – “Caps off to Rooney”

Date: November 22, 2014
Host(s): Wesley Stevenson, Keith Moore, Ben Carter
Guest(s): Carlos Villalta (Center for US-Mexican Studies, UC San Diego), Stephen Dudley (co-director, Insight Crime)
Theme: Examining the accuracy behind high-profile statistics—first, the “98% unsolved murder rate” in Mexico, then the changing context behind winning 100 football caps, as recently achieved by Wayne Rooney.

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Main Theme

This episode of More or Less explores two central statistical stories:

1. Mexico’s 98% Unsolved Murder Rate: Investigating the shocking figure reported in news about the plight of missing students.
2. Wayne Rooney and 100 England Caps: Analyzing whether football caps are easier to earn in the modern era, as footballers break appearance records.

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Mexico’s “98% Unsolved Murder” Statistic

[00:19–04:44] In-Depth Analysis

Key Discussion Points:

• A news story on the disappearance of 43 students in Mexico claimed that 98% of murders in Mexico go unsolved, prompting the team to verify this.
• Murder rates compared:
  • Mexico: 21.5 murders per 100,000
  • US: 4.7 per 100,000
  • Honduras: 90 per 100,000
• Conviction rate, once a suspect is arrested, is high—about 90%, but arrest rates are extremely low.
• The 98% statistic is calculated by comparing the number of murder convictions (judicial statistics) to the number of confirmed homicides (health statistics).
• Structural failures in Mexico’s judicial and forensic institutions are at the root of the poor record.

Notable Quotes:

• Carlos Villalta [01:30]:
  “From 1997 to 2011, we have about a 90% conviction rate. So if you get arrested for a homicide crime, there’s a chance of 9 in 10 to actually be convicted. The problem here is how many of them get arrested.”
• Carlos Villalta [02:19]:
  “It is really rare to find a murderer being arrested in the end, and being in jail for a homicide crime is just 2% chance, which is statistically significant. What you have is basically a statistical anomaly. When you look historically at the trend, you see that these variations around 98% are pretty much constant. Historical pattern of state failure.”
• Stephen Dudley [03:09]:
  “The number one factor is that the institutions there, specifically these judicial institutions, simply don’t work. They have this incredible way of either bungling up investigations, not actually doing investigations, being influenced by those who are being investigated, either threatened or co-opted in some way, or perhaps even paid off in some way.”

Memorable Moments:

• The practical impact:
  Stephen Dudley [04:15]:
  “I’ve been to crime scenes where you’ve got little kids playing, you know, with a stick in blood of a victim, things like that. That just shows you that already you are going to have problems.”

Contextual Insights

• The failures in Mexico's homicide prosecution are echoed elsewhere in Central and South America, though comparable data is lacking.
• Public distrust and fear of authorities is widespread, preventing many crimes from being reported in the first place.

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The Truth About Football Caps and Wayne Rooney’s Milestone

[04:44–08:49] Deep Dive

Key Discussion Points:

• Historical Comparison: Football legends like Johan Cruyff and Eusebio played far fewer internationals than players today; Rooney’s 100 caps prompted an analysis.
• Number of Matches:
  • 1960s England: ~10 games/year
  • Modern England: ~12 games/year (precisely 11.9 during Rooney’s career)
  • More teams, expanded tournaments, and larger qualifying campaigns provide more opportunities.
• Caps and Substitutes:
  • Today, players gain caps for substitute appearances; previously, substitutes were not permitted in most matches.
  • Rule changes introduced substitutes in World Cups in 1972 and in all internationals in 1988 (up to three in 1995).
• All-time Records:
  • Most capped player: Ahmed Hassan (Egypt), 184.
  • Most capped active player: Iker Casillas (Spain), 160 at age 33, with Sergio Ramos rapidly catching up.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Carter [05:25]:
  “If you take Dutch legend Johan Cruyff’s international career, which lasted 12 years, which is the same length as Rooney’s career to date, he only played 48 times for his country. And then there’s the Portuguese forward Eusebio, who played for 13 years, but again, he just got 64 caps.”
• Wesley Stevenson [06:38]:
  “There are currently 209 men's national football teams affiliated to FIFA. And then the Marshall Islands, which are the only independent, UN-recognized country that doesn’t have a national team at all.”
• Ben Carter [07:34]:
  “But it’s Eusebio who would have benefited most from playing in today’s era... we project that if he played today, he’d have won 138 caps.”

Memorable Moments:

• Lighthearted aside:
  • Wesley Stevenson [06:36]:
    “What’s 0.9 of a game?”
• Insight on impact of substitutes and rule changes on the ease of reaching high cap numbers.

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Key Timestamps

• 00:19 — Introduction to the Mexico murders topic.
• 00:56 — Discussion on global murder rates.
• 01:30 — Carlos Villalta on conviction rates.
• 02:19 — Explaining the “98% unsolved” calculation.
• 03:09 — Stephen Dudley on why the justice system is failing.
• 04:15 — Forensic failures and crime scenes.
• 04:44 — Segue to Wayne Rooney and football stats.
• 05:25 — Historical caps earned by famous players.
• 06:38 — Expansion in international football affecting caps.
• 07:34 — Projections on how many caps players like Eusebio would earn today.
• 08:35 — Most capped international footballers.

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Conclusion

This episode of More or Less offers clarity on two powerful statistics—one chilling and one celebratory:

• The “98% unsolved murder rate” in Mexico is sadly accurate, reflecting deep institutional dysfunction, not a statistical error.
• Wayne Rooney’s 100 England caps reflect not just achievement, but also how the context of football has changed. More fixtures, expanded tournaments, and rule changes now make milestones like his much more attainable than in previous generations.

The show closes with encouragement for listeners to submit their own numerical curiosities and a reminder of the programme’s knack for revealing the real stories behind the stats.

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Transcript

[Wesley Stevenson]

This is the short edition of More

[Keith Moore]

or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[Ben Carter]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[Wesley Stevenson]

hello. Welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Wesley Stevenson. There's been shock and outrage about reports that 43 students in Mexico have gone missing and and are presumed to have been murdered. And it was a statistic in a story about the student's disappearance that led one of our listeners, Trent Houghton, to contact us. An article on the Huffington Post website said that roughly 98% of murders in Mexico were unsolved. At first glance, that might seem like an incredibly high number. Can it be true? Our reporter Keith Moore has been investigating. So, Keith, what have you found out?

[Keith Moore]

The first thing to mention is Mexico's murder rate of 21.5 murders per 100,000 people. That's much higher than the US at 4.7 per 100,000 and also every country in Europe. However, it is still behind 20 other countries and way behind Honduras, which has a murder rate of 90 per 100,000. I spoke to Carlos Villalta, who is a visiting fellow at the center for U.S. mexican Studies in the University of California in San Diego, and he told me that when a murder suspect had been arrested and was in court, the chance they would actually go to jail was very high.

[Carlos Villalta]

From 1997 to 2011, we have about a 90% conviction rate. So if you get arrested for a homicide crime, there's a chance of 9 in 10 to actually be convicted. The problem here is how many of them get arrested.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Okay, so the chances of conviction are high if a murder suspect is actually arrested, charged, and then put in front of a court. But what about the question of whether 98% of murders in Mexico are unsolved?

[Keith Moore]

Well, according to statistics released by Mexico's National Institute of Statistics, that is in fact, correct. They formulate the rate by combining two sets of figures. Judicial statistics for the number of people who have been convicted of murder and health statistics for the number of people that have died a violent death, which have then been confirmed by a doctor as homicide.

[Carlos Villalta]

It is really rare to find a murderer being arrested in the end, and being in jail for a homicide crime is just 2% chance, which is statistically significant. What you have is basically a statistical anomaly. When you look historically at the trend, you see that these variations around 98% are pretty much constant. Historical pattern of state failure.

[Keith Moore]

Carlos Villalta said He doesn't think Mexico's rate for unsolved murders would be very different from other countries in Central and South America. However, there's little data to back this up.

[Wesley Stevenson]

It's astonishingly low, isn't it? I mean, the one question I imagine everyone is asking now is why are so few homicides in Mexico sold?

[Keith Moore]

Oh, that was the question I asked Stephen Dudley, the co director of Insight Crime, which is an investigative think tank based in the US and Colombia.

[Stephen Dudley]

The number one factor is that the institutions there, specifically these judicial institutions, simply don't work. They have this incredible way of either bungling up investigations, not actually doing investigations, being influenced by those who are being investigated, either threatened or co opted in some way, or perhaps even paid off in some way. So there's an incredibly high inefficiency. But of course that then bleeds into other types of reasons that would be obvious offshoots from this, which is that people don't trust these institutions. People will not go to the authorities with the crime at all.

[Keith Moore]

Stephen Dudley said there were failures in several different layers of the judicial system that led to the low rate of prosecution for homicides. And both he and Carlos Villalta were critical of the police. Stephen Dudley did also, interestingly speak to me about the role of forensic scientists when it comes to crime scenes.

[Stephen Dudley]

They're often too afraid to do their work, they do their work too quickly, they do their work sloppily. Just a complete lack of understanding of how to develop a crime scene. I've been to crime scenes where you've got little kids playing, you know, with a stick in blood of a victim, things like that. That just shows you that already you are going to have problems.

[Wesley Stevenson]

That was Stephen Dudley and thanks to Keith Moore. And if you want to hear more about the troubles in Mexico, make sure you tune in to the new World Service programme, the Inquiry next, when they'll be asking who runs Mexico. Just a quick reminder, you're listening to More or Less on the BBC World Service with me, Wesley Stevenson. Now, last week you may have noticed that Wayne Rooney became the ninth English footballer to win 100 caps when captaining the side to a 31 victory against Slovenia. Rooney has received plenty of plaudits for his achievement, but one former player, Chris Waddle, he's argued that caps are easier to win today than in previous eras. And given that we like to talk a little bit about football on this program, Ben Carter and I decided that our work this week should involve looking at the numbers. Hello, Ben.

[Ben Carter]

Hello, Wes. One of the striking things when looking at some of the great players from previous generations, was actually how few games they played for their national team. I mean, if you take Dutch legend Johan Cruyff's international career, which lasted 12 years, which is the same length as Rooney's career to date, he only played 48 times for his country. And. And then there's the Portuguese forward Eusebio, who played for 13 years, but again, he just got 64 caps.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Yeah, that surprised me, because the two best players of the current generation, so Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, they've already won a lot more caps than that and they're still relatively young.

[Ben Carter]

That's right. Ronaldo's 29 and he's got 117 caps and Lionel Messi is 27 and he's got 96. So he's nearly at 100 already. And one of the reasons that players like Cruyff and Eusebio and even Maradona and Pele didn't win 100 caps was because fewer games were played in years gone by. If you use England as an example, in the 60s, they played about 10 games per year, but in the modern era, it's more like 12. Or to be absolutely precise, over Wayne Rooney's career, England have played 11.9 games a year.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Yeah.

[Stephen Dudley]

What's.

[Wesley Stevenson]

What's 0.9 of a game?

[Ben Carter]

That's a good question.

[Wesley Stevenson]

But the reason for this is that I presume is that more international teams play football these days. I mean, there are currently 209 men's national football teams affiliated to FIFA. And then the Marshall Islands, which are the only independent, UN recognised country that doesn't have a national team at all. And this means that tournaments and qualifying campaigns for those tournaments are getting bigger.

[Ben Carter]

And that's highlighted by the fact that 32 teams played to win just one of four qualifying spots for the European Championships in 1972, whereas 54 teams will try and win one of 24 berths to take part in Euro 2020.

[Wesley Stevenson]

So how many caps would the greats from the past have won if they'd played in an era where teams averaged nearly 12 games a year like England during Wayne Rooney's career? Our projections show that Pele and Maradona would both have comfortably reached 100 caps had they played in today's era, although Platini and Cruyff would still have fallen short.

[Ben Carter]

But it's Eusebio who would have benefited most from playing in today's era. During his lengthy Portuguese career, the national side only played 72 times and he played in 64 of those games, so most of them scored 41 goals. But we project that if he played today, he'd have won 138 caps.

[Wesley Stevenson]

There is another reason why players receive more caps today, and that's because they're awarded them for substitute appearances as well as being in the starting eleven. Substitutes weren't permitted in the World Cups until 1972. Substitutes were introduced in all international games in 1988 and this was up to three in 1995. Now, you may be wondering who the most capped player of all time is now. This is Egypt's Ahmed Hassan on 184 and the most capped active player is Spain's World cup winning goalkeeper eiker Casillas on 160 at the age of 33. Casillas doesn't really have time on his side to break the record though.

[Ben Carter]

But Wes one man who does is his compatriot Sergio Ramos. Now, Ramos became the youngest player to win 100 caps when he was 26. He's now 28 and he's got 123 caps to his name. And he does have plenty of years left to play.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Thanks Ben. That's all for this week. Thank you very much for listening. If you have any numbers you want investigating, please email us at more or lessbc.co.uk you can also listen to other editions of More or Less, exploring subjects such as whether homicide is a leading cause of death for pregnant women, to how we calculate the distance to the sun. And you can find these programs by going to our website, bbcworldservice.com more or less.

[Ben Carter]

There are dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sports. For details of them all go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.