More or Less — "Can You Get £71,000 on Benefits?"

BBC Radio 4 | Host: Tim Harford | Date: January 28, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Tim Harford and the More or Less team tackle prominent claims and numbers that have captured public attention and political debate. The main theme revolves around the hotly contested assertion that a family on benefits can receive the equivalent of a £71,000 annual pre-tax salary—a figure wielded in political discussions about the UK benefits system. The episode also features segments fact-checking bold statements from public figures and pop culture, and a light-hearted physics exploration on saunas. The podcast ends on a personal note, as Tim embarks on a marathon challenge.

1. Debunking the £71,000 Benefits Claim

[01:03–08:13]

Background of the Claim

• Claim: "You'd need a £71,000 pre tax household income to be as well off as a couple with children on benefits" ([02:00] Richard Varden, quoting the Centre for Social Justice).
• This figure suggests working families need almost twice the median UK income to match what some out-of-work households may receive in benefits.

Origins and Context

• Sourced from a December report by the Centre for Social Justice—founded by former Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith. The report was a response to government changes (specifically, the scrapping of the two-child cap on Universal Credit by Chancellor Rachel Reeves) ([02:45–03:16]).
• The claim compares a single-earner family of five’s income to a benefits-receiving household where one adult is out of work due to illness/disability.

How Accurate Is That Figure?

• Pre-tax vs. Take-home Pay: The £71,000 figure reflects gross income, but after standard deductions (tax, NI, student loan, pension), actual take-home pay is "just over £46,000" ([03:35] Richard Varden).
• Benefits Cap: Most out-of-work families with three children would get about £25,000 (London) or £22,000 (elsewhere) due to the benefits cap ([04:51] Richard Varden).
• The exception: households where someone claims disability or illness benefits (not subject to the cap). In these cases, health elements and Personal Independence Payment (PIP) can raise total annual benefits to around £46,000 ([05:54] Richard Varden).

Is the Comparison Fair?

• Experts argue the comparison is misleading.
  • "The whole comparison is unfair, comparing a single person without disabilities against a family with children and rent and disabilities and all the costs that go along with them." ([06:24] Gareth Morgan via Tom Coles)
• Disability benefit is difficult to obtain; it's not simply a matter of applying.
  • "You have to prove your disability. And that's a very, very lengthy and onerous process." ([07:22] Tom Coles)

Are There Incentives to Claim More Benefits?

• Jo Shallum from the Centre for Social Justice insists the system does create incentives.
  • "If you are able to essentially double your benefit income by going through the gateway that says you are unable to work due to anxiety and/or depression... we have to treat that as a very real incentive." ([06:45] Tim Harford paraphrasing Jo Shallum)
• Evidence for this is limited. The IFS found that reducing the benefit cap in 2016 increased disability claims by just about 2%.
  • "The effect was not big, about a 2% increase..." ([07:40] Richard Varden)

Notable Quotes

• "[The] incentive to be disabled is a ridiculous kind of concept in the first place." ([07:09] Tom Coles, quoting Gareth Morgan)
• "It's a lot of money. But there is more to this comparison than meets the eye." ([03:16] Richard Varden)
• "You have to prove your disability. And that's a very, very lengthy and onerous process." ([07:22] Tom Coles)

2. Fact-Checking Political and Social Claims

A. Mark Carney and GDP Figures

[08:13–10:11]

• Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney claimed at the World Economic Forum that "Nordics plus Canada" make up 20% of global GDP.
  • Reality: Canada is about 2% and the Nordics ~3.5%; combined far less than 20% ([09:08] Tim Harford).
  • Carney meant "Canada plus EU," which actually does total 20%.

B. Right Said Fred and “Crimes Against Churches”

[10:41–16:14]

• Claim: "9,000 crimes against churches in the UK in the last three years."
  • The 9,000 figure actually includes all places of worship—mosques, synagogues, temples—not just Christian churches ([12:11] Lizzie McNeil).
  • "A lot of police forces include all places of worship within their count... so mosques, Buddhist temples and synagogues will be included." ([12:11] Lizzie McNeil)
• Types of crimes: The majority are thefts and burglaries, not hate crimes.
  • "There were over 3,000 cases of criminal damage and 2,102 cases of violence." ([13:09] Lizzie McNeil)

Religious Hate Crimes in the UK (Year ending March 2025)

• 7,000+ hate crimes recorded.
  • 45% against Muslims, 29% Jews, only 5% against Christians ([14:54] Tim Harford / Lizzie McNeil)
• Arson at places of worship does occur, but systematic anti-Christian arson is not evidenced.

Notable Quotes

• "Drug trafficking might be a crime committed in or near a church, but it would be weird to describe it as a crime against a church." ([13:32] Tim Harford)
• "Christians are at risk of violence in some countries around the world, but thankfully there is currently very little evidence that Christians in the UK face any real threat of violence." ([16:14] Lizzie McNeil)

3. Sauna Temperatures: 'Ten Times as Hot as Wales'?

[17:25–21:39]

Origin of the Claim

• On Radio 4’s Inside Health, it was said that saunas (80°C) are "ten times as hot" as wintery Wales (8°C).

Analysis

• Problem: Celsius (and Fahrenheit) are relative scales—not absolute measures of thermal energy, so multiplying doesn't make sense.
  • "[If] you convert to Fahrenheit... it's only four times warmer." ([19:20] Tom Coles)
• Correct Calculation: Use absolute zero (Kelvin scale)—80°C is 353.15K; 8°C is 281.15K.
  • "The ratio of the two of these is actually 1.256. That's about 1.26 times warmer." ([20:45] Lizzie McNeil)
• To be truly "ten times as warm" as 8°C, the sauna would need to be 2,500°C.

Notable Quotes

• "For the scale that you've chosen... zero degrees Celsius is not as cold as it can get. So it's at that point that the math starts to break down." ([18:56] Prof. Kelly Morrison)
• "If you are respecting physics, then a sauna is only 1.26 times warmer than outdoor Wales in winter." ([21:14] Tim Harford)

4. Marathon Science – ‘Breaking Four’

[21:39–29:16]

Tim Attempts to Break 4 Hours at the London Marathon

• Inspired by Kipchoge’s two-hour marathon feat, Tim aims for a sub-4 hour finish.

Science of Endurance

• VO₂ Max: The peak oxygen uptake—a cap on aerobic endurance ([23:48] Dr. Danny Muniz).
• Lactate Threshold: The % of VO₂ Max sustainable for a marathon; determines how hard you can "push" without exhaustion.

Lab Testing

• Tim is tested at the University of Hertfordshire: treadmill running, repeated blood lactate measurements.
• Result: "We did estimate your likely [lactate] threshold to happen at around 11 km per hour... That corresponds to a marathon time of 3 hours and 50 minutes." ([28:31] Dr. Danny Muniz)
• Factors like nutrition, sleep, and weather affect race-day outcome—if all goes well, Tim could "go under four hours." ([28:58] Dr. Danny Muniz)

Notable Moments

• "[VO₂] max essentially sets the ceiling of your aerobic metabolism." ([24:12] Dr. Danny Muniz)
• "I've got a charity place in the London Marathon... and I've got my eye on a target that is surely just as impressive." ([21:39] Tim Harford, tongue-in-cheek)

Memorable Quotes & Moments by Timestamp

• "[The] incentive to be disabled is a ridiculous kind of concept in the first place."
  — Gareth Morgan ([07:09])
• "You have to prove your disability. And that's a very, very lengthy and onerous process."
  — Gareth Morgan ([07:22])
• "Drug trafficking might be a crime committed in or near a church, but it would be weird to describe it as a crime against a church."
  — Tim Harford ([13:32])
• "If you are respecting physics, then a sauna is only 1.26 times warmer than outdoor Wales in winter."
  — Tim Harford ([21:14])
• "We did estimate your likely threshold to happen at around 11 km per hour... That corresponds to a Marathon time of 3 hours and 50 minutes."
  — Dr. Danny Muniz ([28:31])

Key Timestamps for Segments

• Intro & Topics Preview: 01:03
• Benefits Claim Analysis: 02:00–08:13
• Mark Carney GDP Fact Check: 08:13–10:11
• Right Said Fred Church Crime Claim: 10:41–16:14
• Sauna Temperature Comparison: 17:25–21:39
• Marathon Science and Tim's Challenge: 21:39–29:16

Conclusion

This fact-filled finale of More or Less explains why big headline numbers about benefits rarely translate into simple truths and exposes the problems of making apples-to-oranges comparisons in public debate. The team brings their signature wit and clarity to everything from social media myths to the physics of extreme heat, and wraps up with a personal experiment in marathon science. The episode exemplifies why careful, critical analysis is so needed—whether talking about government budgets, global GDP, or how many times warmer a sauna really is.

For feedback or questions, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk