Counting images of The Queen. (WS)

Summary

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More or Less – "Counting images of The Queen"

Host: Tim Harford
Date: June 4, 2012
Podcast: BBC Radio 4, More or Less

Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less dives into two thought-provoking, number-heavy questions:

1. How many images of Queen Elizabeth II have been printed and circulated around the world?
2. Is Facebook truly worth double the value of all companies listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, as was claimed at the time of its 2012 IPO?

Tim Harford and his guests, with a blend of humor and analytical rigour, investigate these numerical curiosities, exposing the challenges of estimation and the complexities of financial comparisons.

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1. Counting Images of Queen Elizabeth II

The Challenge

• Tim Harford introduces a "Jubilee inspired challenge" to Ruth Alexander:
  "How many pictures of the Queen have ever been printed everywhere in the world?" [00:59]

The Impossibility of Counting

• Ruth Alexander quips:
  "Please count a number that's impossible to count." [01:19]
  • Getty Images alone has about 250,000 photos of the Queen.
  • But usage numbers are unknown; a single image could be reproduced millions or billions of times.

Attempted Approaches & Wild Guesses

• Ruth tries multiplying media appearances by circulation, adjusting for international interest:
  • The Guardian ran 21 images that year × major world newspaper populations × 60 years × 5% interest factor, leading to:
    "Your number is 145,371,993." [02:01]
• Estimates for personal photographs:
  • "20% of the UK population" (about 12 million people) have taken a personal photo of the Queen [02:20]
  • Adds an estimated 0.1% from 116 countries she visited (5.3 million more images)
  • Throws in an extra 50.5 million "for internet search results." [02:34-02:59]
• Tim Harford is skeptical:
  "You're just pulling all of these numbers out of your pocket? I'm not convinced." [02:59]
• Ruth admits these were "pocket" numbers and shifts to "proper research." [03:06]

Real Numbers: Currency and Stamps

• Coins and Banknotes:
  • Royal Mint: "74 billion coins" in the UK alone since the Queen's appearance [03:12]
  • UK banknotes: "About 35 billion"
  • Other Commonwealth countries (Canada, Australia, Jersey, Solomon Islands):
    "Another 89,179,325,000 banknotes and coins."
  • Using population comparisons and reign durations, Ruth estimates:
    "Another 88 and a half billion coins and banknotes with the Queen's head on ever made." [03:27–04:25]
• Stamps:
  • UK: "The Royal Mail calculates it’s produced 200 billion or so stamps since 1967… So the grand total of my estimation is that the Royal Mail produced 260 billion stamps since 1953." [04:29]
  • Other countries:
    "Canada Post told me they've sold 82,325,000 stamps… Jersey Post, just over 100 million." [04:58]
  • Global estimate, again scaled to population and years as head of state:
    "A whacking great 1.5 trillion." [05:13]

The Final Tally

• Ruth Alexander's grand total (likely an underestimate):
  "2,112,376,096,278" (over 2.1 trillion images) [05:33]
• Tim Harford jokes:
  "All those daft numbers you were making up about Internet searches and tea towels, I think they're a rounding error." [05:46]

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2. Is Facebook Worth Twice as Much as the Nigerian Stock Exchange?

The Claim

• At the time of Facebook’s 2012 IPO, a claim spread that Facebook was worth more than twice the total value of every company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

The Numbers Behind the Claim

• Ugo Obichuku (financial blogger):
  • "Value of all Facebook shares at flotation: $104 billion"
  • "Value of all Nigerian Stock Exchange shares: $46 billion on that same day" [06:37]
  • "Yes, definitely. Our listeners saw this fact on a blog post..." [06:37]

Market Context & Caveats

• Tim Harford cautions:
  • "We are only talking about the value attributed by the market... the combined opinion of everybody who's buying and selling Facebook shares or shares in Nigerian companies." [06:59]
• Ugo Obichuku notes further differences:
  • Facebook's valuation: 28× price/earnings
  • Leading Nigerian firm, Dangote Cement: 8× price/earnings [07:31]
• Number of companies:
  • Nigerian Stock Exchange: just under 200 listed companies [08:00]
  • Nasdaq (where Facebook is listed): over 2,700 companies

The Genie's Dilemma: Which Would You Choose?

• Faced with a hypothetical choice by Tim:
  • All shares in Facebook vs. all shares in every company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange,
    Ugo Obichuku chooses the latter:
    "I actually will go for all the shares in the Nigerian Stock Exchange because what that means is I'm going to own all the banks, I'm going to own all the manufacturing companies, I'm going to own all the insurance companies… whether that is legally possible is another thing." [08:44]

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Ruth Alexander:
  "Please count a number that's impossible to count." [01:19]
• Tim Harford:
  "You're just pulling all of these numbers out of your pocket? I'm not convinced." [02:59]
• Ruth Alexander:
  "Proper numbers, proper research. And they're really big money." [03:12]
• Ruth Alexander (final tally):
  "The grand total is 2,112,376,096,278." [05:33]
• Tim Harford (on the estimated total):
  "I think they're a rounding error." [05:46]
• Ugo Obichuku:
  "I actually will go for all the shares in the Nigerian Stock Exchange..." [08:44]

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Key Insights

• Counting the number of images of a famous figure is impossible in any precise terms, but with reasonable estimates and a little mathematical creativity, one can get a sense of scale—trillions of representations for the Queen exist worldwide, between coins, stamps, banknotes, and mementos.
• Comparisons of company valuations (such as that between Facebook and the Nigerian Stock Exchange) are only as meaningful as the methodologies behind them. Differences in market composition, listed company numbers, and earnings multiples must be considered.
• Both segments highlight the importance—and the limits—of using numbers to describe the world, especially when those numbers are woven into public narratives or celebratory moments.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:59 – Challenge to estimate images of the Queen
• 01:19 – "Please count a number that's impossible to count."
• 02:01–03:06 – Ruth’s first estimation attempts and Tim’s skepticism
• 03:07–05:33 – Counting coins, banknotes, stamps
• 05:33–05:46 – Ruth’s final total for Queen images
• 06:37–07:31 – Facebook's IPO valuation vs. Nigerian Stock Exchange
• 08:44 – Ugo Obichuku chooses which "genie's offer" he would take

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Summary Tone

The tone throughout is analytical yet playful, with a focus on the joy and perils of estimation and the sometimes absurd scale of public numbers. Tim Harford keeps the discussion light even while taking methods and reasoning seriously—debunking, questioning, and acknowledging when "pocket numbers" give way to "proper research."

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Transcript

[Tim Harford]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts this is more or less on the BBC World Service. This week we'll be asking whether Facebook is really worth twice as much as all the companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. And Ruth Alexander will be trying to count the number of photographs of of the Queen. Hello, and welcome to More or Less exploring the world of numbers. In 539 seconds this week, imagine you meet a genie who makes you an offer.

[Ruth Alexander]

I can give you every share in Facebook.

[Tim Harford]

And then you meet another who makes you a different offer. I can give you every share in every company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. You can only choose one of these offers. Which one should it be? But First, Queen Elizabeth II, head of state in 16 nations, including the United Kingdom, is celebrating 60 years on the throne this weekend. And so we've set up a jubilee inspired challenge for the ever regal Ruth Alexander. How many pictures of the Queen have ever been printed everywhere in the world?

[Ruth Alexander]

Well. Well, another way of posing that question might be please count a number that's impossible to count. I mean, she's said to be the most photographed person in the world. One of the world's largest photo agencies, Getty Images, has around 250,000 photos of the Queen.

[Tim Harford]

Well, hang on, no, no, that doesn't work because we don't know how many times those images have been used.

[Ruth Alexander]

I thought of what might be a better way of trying to work this out. I asked the Guardian newspaper how many times it's featured a picture of the Queen this year. And it's 21, apparently. So I multiplied that by the circulation figures of the world's major daily paid for newspapers and then multiplied that by 60 for 60 years. And then to adjust for the fact that the press in some countries will be less interested in the Queen than others. Took 5% of that figure and your number is 145,371,993.

[Tim Harford]

What about all the tea towels? What about the keyrings? I mean, there just must be so many other images of the Queen out there.

[Ruth Alexander]

Let's assume that in the uk, the number of people who have ever taken a picture of the Queen equates to 20% of the size of the current UK population. So that's about 12 million people.

[Tim Harford]

These are personal photos, snapshots, snaps in the photo album.

[Ruth Alexander]

And let's also assume that the equivalent of 0.1% of the population of the 116 countries she's visited have also taken a picture or bought a commemorative tea towel or mug. So altogether, I reckon that's at least another 5.3 million people. And then there's Internet search results. So let's throw in 50,500,000 for that.

[Tim Harford]

You're just pulling all of these numbers out of your pocket? I'm not convinced.

[Ruth Alexander]

Well, look, I do have some other real numbers.

[Tim Harford]

Proper numbers. Proper numbers for proper research.

[Ruth Alexander]

Proper numbers, proper research. And they're really big money. The Queen's portrait has graced the currencies of 33 countries. In the UK alone, the Royal Mint has struck around 74 billion coins since the Queen first appeared on them.

[Tim Harford]

That's a big number. And what about notes?

[Ruth Alexander]

Banknotes? Yes. About 35 billion in the UK. Now, I've got figures from the Mint offices and central banks in other countries, too. Canada, Australia, Jersey and the Solomon Islands. So add in another 89,179,325,000 banknotes and coins. I have tried to call the central banks and mint offices of a number of other countries, but they didn't get back to me. Or they just didn't have the numbers. Some countries became independent quite a long time ago, so the numbers just aren't there. So I've estimated the rest according to what I think are fairly reasonable assumptions. So I've looked at how many years the Queen was head of state in a given country and how big its population is compared to the uk, and then used the UK number. So my estimate is that there have been another 88 and a half billion coins and banknotes with the Queen's head on ever made.

[Tim Harford]

I am genuinely impressed now, Ruth. But you've forgotten something.

[Ruth Alexander]

Stamps. I haven't. The Royal Mail calculates it's produced 200 billion or so stamps since 1967, when they made a change to the way stamps looked. So I've taken that number, worked out the average number a year and assumed, and I know it's an assumption, but still, that that is how many were produced each year between 1953 and 1967. So the grand total of my estimation is that the royal mail produced 260 billion stamps since 1953.

[Tim Harford]

And what about other countries?

[Ruth Alexander]

Canada Post told me they've sold 82,325,000 stamps bearing the Queen's portrait. Jersey Post, just over 100 million. But this is again where my real number's on stamps.

[Tim Harford]

I'm sure you have an extrapolation for us, Ruth. Come on.

[Ruth Alexander]

So I've used again the UK numbers and adjusted for population and length of time as head of state to estimate the number of stamps bearing the Queen's portrait in the rest of the world. A whacking great 1.5 trillion.

[Tim Harford]

Is that it?

[Ruth Alexander]

Well, probably not, but it's all I could think of, really.

[Tim Harford]

And the grand total is is.

[Ruth Alexander]

And it's probably an underestimate, but the grand total is 2,112,376,096,278.

[Tim Harford]

So all those daft numbers you were making up about Internet searches and T tails, I think they're a rounding error. Ruth, thank you very much. Now, Facebook's founder, Mark Zuckerberg has been facing some tough questions from investors this week. When he took his social networking website public a couple of weeks ago, amid huge global attention, its shares were valued at $38 each. They've been sliding downwards ever since. The question investors are asking themselves is, what's Facebook really worth? And in a way, that's a similar question to one we received from Nigeria. I am hungry, Albert, who wants to know if it's really true that Facebook is worth twice as much as all the companies listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

[Ruth Alexander]

I would like for this fact to be investigated.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Thank you.

[Tim Harford]

Charlotte MacDonald, is Facebook twice as big as all the companies on the Nigerian

[Ugo Obichuku]

Stock Exchange when Facebook went public? Yes, definitely. Our listeners saw this fact on a blog post that took the value of all Facebook shares on the day of its flotation, which is a whopping $104 billion, and compared it to the value of all the shares on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, which totalled just $46 billion on that day.

[Tim Harford]

Well, that's a pretty startling observation, but I mean, we are only talking about the value attributed by the market. In other words, the sort of combined opinion of everybody who's buying and selling Facebook shares or shares in Nigerian companies. Now, whether Facebook actually deserves such a high valuation is, I suppose, another question.

[Ugo Obichuku]

Yes, of course. And I called the blogger who made the initial comparison between the social networking site and the Nigerian stock exchange. He's Ugo Obichuku and he writes a financial and business blog, Ugametrics.com and he made exactly that point.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Compare Facebook's valuation to that of a very, very profitable Nigerian business, which is Dangote Cement. Dangote Cement was valued at about $12 billion, whereas Facebook was about $104 billion. However, Facebook has been valued at about 28 times its price earnings. Dangote, on the other hand, it's been valued at about 8 times its earnings.

[Tim Harford]

How many companies are listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange?

[Ugo Obichuku]

Well, just under 200. And that's an important point, actually, because Ugo says lots of Nigerian companies choose not to be listed on the stock market or they're ineligible. And that means we're not comparing Facebook's value to the value of every company in Nigeria, but only the relatively small number of firms which are actually on the stock exchange there. For comparison, the Nasdaq, where Facebook's listed, has over 2,700 firms listed on it.

[Tim Harford]

Now, look, we need to get to the heart of the matter here. If this Genie comes along and offers you all the shares in every company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange or all the shares in Facebook, which would you choose?

[Ugo Obichuku]

I made the genie's offer to Ugo and he had to think pretty hard.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Well, that's a tricky question. Without thinking too much, I actually will go for all the shares in the Nigerian Stock Exchange because what that means is that I'm going to own all the banks, I'm going to own all the manufacturing companies, I'm going to own all the insurance companies. I mean, whether that is legally possible is another thing.

[Tim Harford]

Ugo Obijuku and our very own Charlotte MacDonald. Thank you, Charlotte. That's all we have time for this week. Please keep your comments and suggestions coming in to more or lessbc.co.uk and don't forget our website, bbcworldservice.com more or less, where you can subscribe to our podcast. We'll be back next week with more mathematical mind burps. Until then, goodbye. More or Less was presented by me, Tim Harford, the undercover economist at the Financial Times. The producer was Richard Knight. There are dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sports. The details of them all go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.

[Ugo Obichuku]

It.