Podcast Summary: "Do we really have ‘superflu’?"

Podcast: More or Less (BBC Radio 4)
Host: Tim Harford
Date: December 17, 2025

Main Theme

This episode investigates whether the UK is truly suffering from an "unprecedented superflu" crisis, a narrative dominating headlines amid NHS winter pressures. The show dissects health data, media claims, and official statistics to determine the accuracy behind the alarm, and also covers several other number-laden news stories, including trends in British emigration, accidental prison releases, and implausible claims about economic growth.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Is the UK Experiencing Unprecedented 'Superflu'?

[01:08–09:24]

Headlines vs. Reality

• Tim Harford introduces media alarm about "unprecedented superflu" overwhelming the NHS.
• Kasia Rowland (02:07): Reads NHS England press release warning of "an unprecedented wave of superflu" and "record demand."

Investigating the Data

• Nathan Gower (02:40–04:44):

  • This year’s flu has peaked earlier than usual, leading to record figures "for this time of year."
  • Weekly hospital admissions are 10 per 100,000, which is lower than previous peaks (19 per 100,000 in 2022–23, and 15 per 100,000 last year).
  • Other viruses (Covid, RSV) are not peaking simultaneously as in past severe winters, reducing pressure on the NHS.

• Tim Harford (04:45):

  • " Covid levels are very low ... RSV admissions ... at substantially lower levels than flu admissions ... data suggests that RSV may be peaking and hopefully will start to decline."

Is This Strain Really 'Super'?

• Dr. James Hay, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Oxford (05:28–08:41):
  • The dominant strain is H3N2, known for hitting older adults harder and evolving quickly.
  • "The new strain had a peak growth rate equal to doubling every seven days. Only one other flu strain in the last 15 years was higher." (06:33)
  • "So that's basically the upper end. It's ... a top two virus, but it's not unprecedented." (James Hay, 07:04)

Likely Course of the Wave

• Dr. James Hay (07:46–08:41):
  • Early start and slightly faster early growth make it likely the peak will come earlier (mid-December) and finish sooner.

Estimated Infections

• James Hay (08:45):
  • "For H3N2 ... we might expect between 15 and 20% of people to get infected. Given the higher growth rate ... maybe 15 to 25%."

Bottom Line

• Tim Harford (09:06):

  • "Super flu isn't actually super, and the NHS isn't currently facing unprecedented pressure from flu or from other respiratory illnesses. But that doesn't necessarily mean everything's fine. Maybe the NHS is just more fragile than it was in previous waves."

• Ambulance handover times (a stress metric for NHS): currently 38 min (better than last year's 44 min, and far better than 1 hr 15 min during winter 2022–23).

Notable Quote

• James Hay (07:04):
  • "It's kind of a top two virus, but it's not unprecedented."

2. The Alleged 'Mass Exodus' of Britons

[10:05–16:16]

Media Claims vs. Migration Data

• Headlines claim "record number of Britons" leaving under Labour due to high taxes.

• Tim Harford (11:24):

  • Asks Madeleine Sumption (Migration Observatory, Oxford) to fact-check.

The Data's Story

• Madeleine Sumption (11:24–15:24):
  • No evidence emigration spike is caused by Labour policies; the uptick began in 2023 before Labour.
  • Data is "experimental" and recent, so reliable time trends are hard to establish.
  • Many emigrants are returnees (former immigrants who became citizens) or British-born citizens leaving for personal/life reasons rather than tax.
  • Main destinations for Brits: Australia, US, Canada; also Bangladesh, Poland, Romania.
  • "The interesting thing ... is actually that the net increase was driven not by more people leaving, but by fewer people coming back having previously left." (14:38)
  • There has "always been negative net migration of British citizens" (long-term trend).

Notable Quote

• Tim Harford (11:44):

  • "Chris Philp has fallen victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia. But only slightly less well known is not looking at the time series data."

• Madeleine Sumption (13:48):

  • "We can't say anything about the long term trend ... figures with this particular methodology [only] go back to 2021."

3. Accidental Prisoner Releases: Up or Down?

[17:51–24:08]

Recent Public Concern

• Multiple recent cases in the news of prisoners mistakenly released.

What's Happening?

• Kasia Rowland (20:20–23:47):
  • "Release in error" means released too early or too late, or not transferred to the correct detention status.
  • There were 262 in the past year—"a small proportion, almost one a day, but not many compared to the total number of releases" (approx. 50,000 per year).

Trends and Causes

• Sharp rise in the last few years, mainly due to "emergency measures connected to the prison capacity crisis" and more complex release rules.
• Overcomplicated, error-prone manual calculations due to complex, evolving policies.

Are the Numbers Really Falling?

• Introduced checks have reduced early releases compared to the worst peak, but numbers remain far higher than historic norms and haven’t fallen further post-intervention.
• Additional checks may be causing more late releases (also a problem).

Notable Quotes

• Kasia Rowland (21:52):
  • "Guidance ... is more than 150 pages and people are doing maths ... with a pen and paper or a calculator to figure it out."
• Kasia Rowland (23:47):
  • "It's possible that we're now releasing people late instead of early because we're doing these additional checks that slow things down so much."
• Tim Harford (24:03):
  • "But that is also bad. Right. If people are staying in prison, they shouldn't be in prison. That's bad."
• Kasia Rowland (24:07):
  • "It's really bad."

4. Can the US Grow Its Economy by 25% Annually?

[24:08–28:16]

The Claim

• President Trump suggested US GDP growth could be 20–25% a year.

Economic Reality Check

• Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan (24:51):

  • "That would be really, really hard. We don't have any historical experience that coheres with that."
  • US historical average: ~2% per year; rarely as high as 4%.

• Why Not?

  • High, sustained growth rates are possible for developing economies (like China), which are "catching up." The US is already at the “technological frontier.”
  • Only time double-digit annual growth occurred: dramatic post-shutdown recoveries after WWII and Covid—"just for one year in a row" and not sustainable.

Notable Quotes

• Justin Wolfers (24:51):
  • "He's imagining a world. It's a beautiful world, but it's very different than the world any of us have ever lived in."
• Justin Wolfers (25:08):
  • "For 200 years ... the US economy has grown relentlessly at 2% per year. 25 is a lot bigger than 2."
• Tim Harford (27:31):
  • "Have there been examples of economies growing at 25% in a single year?"

5. Light-hearted Ending & In-memoriam

[28:16–29:47]

• The team acknowledges the passing of director Rob Reiner and nods to their frequent “Princess Bride” references, culminating in a favorite quote exchange ("Prepare to die").
• Self-aware running joke: "Inconceivable. However, it needs the kind of in depth analysis that only more or less can provide." (28:16)

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Tim Harford (09:06):
  "Super flu isn't actually super, and the NHS isn't currently facing unprecedented pressure from flu or from other respiratory illnesses."

• James Hay (07:04):
  "So that's basically the upper end. It's kind of a top two virus, but it's not unprecedented."

• Madeleine Sumption (13:48):
  "We can't say anything about the long term trend because we only have figures with this particular methodology going back to 2021."

• Justin Wolfers (24:51):
  "That would be really, really hard. We don't have any historical experience that coheres with that."

• Kasia Rowland (21:52):
  "Guidance ... is more than 150 pages and people are doing maths kind of with a pen and paper or a calculator to figure it out."

• Tim Harford (23:47):
  "So there was a massive spike last year and we are now on a very elevated plateau with no particular sign of progress."

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:08] – Start of new series and intro to "superflu"
• [02:46] – What’s different about this year’s flu season?
• [04:44] – Current NHS pressure from other respiratory viruses
• [05:17] – Is the flu strain itself unusual?
• [06:04] – Data analysis by Dr. James Hay
• [07:04] – "Top two virus, but not unprecedented."
• [09:06] – Flu/NHS summary
• [10:18] – Headlines about a "mass exodus" under Labour
• [11:24] – Madeleine Sumption debunks the migration narrative
• [20:20] – Accidental prison releases, definitions and numbers
• [24:08] – Economic growth rate claims; interview with Justin Wolfers
• [28:16] – Princess Bride references and in memoriam for Rob Reiner

Tone and Language

The episode is informed, skeptical, and lighthearted—Tim Harford’s conversational style is interspersed with gentle mockery of media exaggerations and playful pop-culture references (notably, The Princess Bride). Expert guests speak clearly, with technical accuracy tempered by accessibility.

Conclusion

This episode of "More or Less" skillfully unpacks headline-grabbing numerical claims, using evidence and expert interviews to show that:

• The current UK flu wave is not "super" nor "unprecedented."
• Claims of a politically-driven British exodus are unsupported.
• 'Accidental' prisoner releases are up due to system complexity, but not improving as claimed.
• US growth at 25% per year isn't just unlikely, it's practically impossible in a developed economy. All analyzed with characteristic wit, skepticism, and statistical clarity.