More or Less: Behind the Stats

Episode: Does half the UK get more in benefits than they pay in tax?

Date: October 8, 2025
Host: Tim Harford, BBC Radio 4

Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less tackles several much-discussed statistics surrounding UK society:

• Are elderly people cognitively stronger than past generations?
• Do young people really bring their parents to job interviews?
• Most centrally, are more than half of UK residents receiving more in benefits than they pay in tax—a claim recently highlighted in a Daily Mail article?

Tim Harford and the team break down headline-grabbing claims by tracking down the sources, testing the methodologies, and consulting experts to put these stats in perspective.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Do the World's Richest Earn More Overnight Than Bournemouth Earns in a Year?

[02:13–04:41]

• Context: At the Bournemouth Green Party conference, leader Zack Polanski made a claim: that some people earn more overnight than the entire population of Bournemouth in a year.
• Analysis:
  • Anthony Rubin from BBC Verify performs a quick calculation:
    • Bournemouth has ~200,000 population, ~120,000 working age.
    • Average salary: £37,500 ⇒ Total annual earnings for Bournemouth ≈ £4.5 billion.
    • For one person to earn that overnight would mean a (clearly impossible) annual income of nearly £5 trillion.
• Reality Check:
  • The Green Party later clarify the "overnight" line was meant to refer to the global top 1%, not a single UK citizen.
  • Tim Harford dryly notes, “It doesn't sound like he's talking about the richest 82 million people in the world, some of whom surely live in Bournemouth.”
    (04:41)

2. Are 70-Year-Olds Smarter Today than 50-Year-Olds in 2000?

[05:05–10:53]

• Context: A statistic goes viral claiming the average 70-year-old in 2022 matches the cognitive ability of a 53-year-old in 2000.
• Expert Input:
  • Dr. Michaela Blumberg (UCL) explains this is from IMF research covering 41 countries and four cognitive domains (memory, orientation in time, mathematical and verbal fluency).
  • Cognitive test details, as Tim quips: "'orientation in time' is basically knowing the time and date. That's really a test of serious cognitive decline. Most people pass it." [06:33]
  • The improvement is “relatively small” on a single test but still meaningful.
• Why the improvement?
  • Longer time in education, better general health, less smoking, more stimulating jobs. Improvements are higher in less-wealthy countries due to "ceiling effects."
  • Blumberg: “There's a ceiling effect at play here, which is to say that on these particular cognitive tests, higher income countries may already be at or near the upper range, so further gains aren't well captured.” [09:03]
• Clarification: The findings do not mean the same person maintains their 50s mental peak into their 70s. Rather, successive generations start higher and decline from a better baseline.
  • Blumberg: “You have basically higher midlife cognitive abilities. And so when you start to cognitively decline, you do so from a higher starting point and as a result you perform cognitively better to an older age.” [10:25]

3. Does Over Half the UK Get More in Benefits Than They Pay in Tax?

[11:13–18:22]

• Origin of the Claim: A Daily Mail headline asserts that “over half of the UK population live in households that get more in benefits than they pay in tax.”
• Expert Analysis: Mike Brewer, chief economist at the Resolution Foundation, explains:
  • The statistic is accurate and based on robust ONS data but the definition of "benefits" used is far broader than many expect.
• What Counts as "Benefits"?
  • The calculation includes not just cash benefits (like pensions and universal credit) but also “benefits in kind”—notably, NHS use, state education, social and health care, child care subsidies, etc.
  • Tim: “If someone uses the NHS, visits a GP, goes to A&E, they're on benefits at that point.” [12:51]
  • Brewer: “This definition of benefits is very broad. Yes...But it misses out what economists call your classic public goods. So that might be police, law and order, defence, environmental protection.” [13:05]
  • The calculation omits public goods spending.
• Who is Predominantly “Receiving” These Benefits?
  • 36 million receive more than they pay; 10.3 million are retired (mostly state pension recipients) [14:11]
  • Excluding retirees, 25 million non-retired still receive more, but the majority is in kind (e.g., education, NHS), with only about £6,000 per household as cash. Average non-retired household "in-kind" benefits are valued near £16,000.
  • Brewer: “It's only the minority of benefits that non-retired houses receive, they're actually coming in the form of cash... the ONS think we get £16,000 of value from the public services that it looks at.” [14:46]
• Why the Majority Receive More Than They Contribute:
  • Many people are in full-time education or are parents/carers/young children—not net taxpayers.
  • Retirees paid more in earlier life, now properly benefit.
• Trends Over Time: The share receiving more benefits (under the ONS definition) has grown for both retired and non-retired households.
• Distribution of Tax Burden:
  • The richest fifth pay 45% of all tax revenue, with high earners shouldering an increased share due to the progressive tax system and changes at the top of income distribution.

4. Fact-Checking: Do 77% of Gen Z Bring Parents to Interviews?

[19:43–27:11]

• The Viral Statistic: “77% of Gen Zers have brought a parent to an interview.”
• Source: Resumetemplates.com, via mobile survey company Pollfish, allegedly indicating that up from 25% last year.
• Methodology Scrutiny:
  • Professor Annette Yecla (U. Essex)—expert in survey methodology—explains:
    • Respondents incentivised by free lives in games (not cash) on Android apps.
    • Only Android users were sampled, which biases against the roughly half of Gen Z who use iPhones (particularly those with higher incomes).
    • No population weighting; respondents self-reported age and full-time employment, which can also distort results given app use and age misreporting.
    • Distribution of responses (often clustered in round numbers like 25%, 50%, or 75%) suggests respondents may be “randomly clicking” to get through the survey.
    • For the 2024 survey: 1,000 respondents, 26% claimed to have ever brought a parent to an interview; but only 8 actually had a parent sit in during an in-person interview, with only 5 having their parent introduce themselves.
      • Lizzie: “We're talking about really small numbers here.” [24:54]
  • Final verdict: The claim is unsupported and reflects bad data, not a true generational trend.
    • Annette Yecla: “That's another indicator for me to think, I don't think people were really paying attention and answering these questions carefully.” [25:53]
• Harford's summary: “So, no, we cannot claim that all American Gen Zers take their parents to interviews.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On over-the-top comparisons:
  Tim Harford: “There obviously aren't people in the UK who earn anything like that overnight.” [04:03]

• On cognitive tests for the elderly:
  Dr. Michaela Blumberg: “So you kind of think of people being around near to their peak at age 50, and then 70 is when we've already started to see a fair bit of aging related decline.” [09:49]

• On the scope of ‘benefits’:
  Mike Brewer: “This definition of benefits is very broad. Yes, it captures people's use of the NHS. It captures all the spending on education, social care, childcare subsidies, transport subsidies, housing subsidies and so on.” [13:05]

• On the viral Gen Z job interview claim:
  Professor Annette Yecla: “That's another indicator for me to think, I don't think people were really paying attention and answering these questions carefully.” [25:53]

• Tim’s sign-off joke to Lizzie:
  “By the way, who's that sitting behind you?”
  Lizzie: “Oh, that's just my mum. Say hi, Mum.” [27:11]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Richest earners vs. Bournemouth: 02:13–04:41
• Are today's elderly cognitively stronger? 05:05–10:53
• The ‘benefits vs tax’ claim: 11:13–18:22
• Gen Z and parental job interview help: 19:43–27:11

Takeaways

• Context Matters: Sensational claims, like most of the UK being “on benefits,” rely on unusual definitions and need careful unpacking.
• Survey Quality: Viral stats often come from dubious methodologies and should be taken with a grain of salt.
• Societal Trends: Improvements in population-level cognitive health are well documented, but individual aging patterns remain unchanged.
• Progressivity: The UK's tax system is progressive and the broad definition of ‘benefits’ includes services most people rely on, not just welfare payments.

For questions or comments, contact the More or Less team at moreorlessbc.co.uk.