More or Less – Does Venezuela Really Have the Biggest Oil Reserves in the World?

Podcast: More or Less
Host: Tim Harford (BBC Radio 4)
Air Date: January 10, 2026
Guests: Artem Abramov (Rystad Energy), Hal Hodson (The Economist)

Overview

In this episode, Tim Harford investigates the frequently cited claim that Venezuela boasts the world’s largest oil reserves. Triggered by recent world events and online theories linking US foreign policy to oil interests following a dramatic intervention in Venezuela, the episode digs into the numbers, the reality behind those headline reserve figures, and what it would actually take for Venezuela to realize its oil potential.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela’s Oil: The Basics and The Myth

Venezuela is often cited as having the largest proven oil reserves in the world—allegedly 300 billion barrels.
Despite enormous reserves, actual oil production plummeted from 3.5 million barrels/day in the 1970s to only 600,000 in 2020.
Quote [03:05]:
Artem Abramov: “The country which was one producing 3.5 million barrels a day saw the production declining towards 600,000 in 2020. That was the bottom. It recovered slightly, you know, between 2020 and now, but it’s still roughly 1 million bars.”

2. Understanding 'Proven Reserves' and Economic Realities

Not all oil is equal: oil reserves estimates depend on price, technology, and the physical characteristics of the oil.
'Proven' reserves only count oil that is economically extractable—these numbers rise and fall with global oil prices.
Quote [04:24]:
Artem Abramov: “You try to quantify the amount of oil which can be economically produced... you’re seeing, like, it’s a very different number which can be extracted at $100 per barrel oil price versus 30 or $40 per barrel.”

3. Venezuela’s Oil Quality Problem

Venezuelan oil is extremely heavy, more akin to tar, requiring intensive effort and advanced technology to extract and refine.
Quote [05:11]:
Hal Hodson: “Oil is not oil. Oil in Saudi Arabia is completely different than oil in Venezuela. Oil in Venezuela is actually tar. It is under the ground a long, long way... you have to tunnel your way through this tar, inject a bunch of chemicals down there to make it liquefy.”

4. Reserve Figures: Reality vs. Rhetoric

The official 300 billion barrels figure is based on high oil prices ($100+/barrel); at current prices (~$60/barrel), maybe only half is economically viable.
Venezuela’s reported reserves have not decreased despite significant drops in prices and production—a red flag.
Quote [06:04]:
Artem Abramov: “When you sell actually lifted their proven reserves all the way to 300... they never went back because... oil prices declined... but the proven reserve figure stayed at 300 billion barrels. Today's oil prices, they're around $60 per barrel. And at $60 per barrel, maybe only half... can actually be extracted economically.”

5. Infrastructure and Investment Needs

Decades-old infrastructure (pipelines, wells) is decaying; rapid ramp-up to former production levels is unrealistic.
Quote [07:05]:
Artem Abramov: “All these facilities and pipelines... they are still from like 1970, 1980, and they were not properly maintained.... maybe 200, maybe 300,000 bar of additional oil production... which are maybe easily available within 18, maybe 24 months. But that’s a maximum.”
Full recovery (to historic highs) would require about $183 billion over 15 years with massive upfront investment from international oil companies.
Quote [07:47]:
Artem Abramov: “We're talking about 15-year horizon at least. So if you start investing today, then by 2040... Venezuela [could] get back to 3 million barrels a day.... you need at least $30 billion of capital from international oil companies, like in the first two, three years.”

6. Global Oil Market Constraints

Only the US and China have refineries equipped to handle Venezuela's ultra-heavy oil; US refineries are almost maxed out.
The global oil market is currently oversupplied, with spare capacity in several other major oil-producing countries.
Risk for investors: the additional Venezuelan oil could depress prices further in a fragile market.
Quote [08:57]:
Artem Abramov: “Global oil market is oversupplied... you have the US Shale, which has grown quite a lot... demand is not growing as fast and it’s very fragile balance... Venezuela adding another million or 2 million barrels a day... will have very severe implications for the revenues.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Trump Soundbite [01:59]:
Donald Trump: “The oil companies are going to go in, they're going to spend money, we're going to take back the oil that frankly we should have taken back a long time ago.”
(Highlighted as the tone for popular oil-related theories, not a statement of fact.)
On the mismatch between reserves and reality [06:31]:
Tim Harford: “So we're looking at less than 150 billion barrels, which is still a big number. It's just half the number Venezuela claims.”
On infrastructure realities [07:05]:
Artem Abramov: “...all these facilities and pipelines... not properly maintained... there is no more than 200, maybe 300,000 bar of additional oil production which can be extracted from existing wells.... that’s a maximum [in 18-24 months].”
On the 15-year timeline [07:47]:
Artem Abramov: “We're talking about 15-year horizon at least. So if you start investing today, then by 2040, I think it is possible theoretically for Venezuela to get back to 3 million barrels a day ... $183 billion USD over 15 year period.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

[01:18] – Introduction, setting of the recent geopolitical context
[02:37] – Background on Venezuela’s oil history and export economy
[03:05] – Production collapse and status
[03:44] – Reserve numbers vs production realities
[04:24] – Explanation: defined ‘proven reserves’ and how oil prices affect them
[05:11] – Differences in oil quality; technical and financial challenges
[06:04] – Ballooning reserve claims despite falling prices
[07:05] – Realistic short-term production increases
[07:47] – The cost, time, and foreign investment needed for a full-scale ramp-up
[08:29] – Market, technical, and economic barriers facing international investors

Tone and Style

The episode maintains the accessible, data-driven, and gently skeptical tone characteristic of Tim Harford’s style—clarifying misconceptions with humor and sharp logic, while giving voice to pragmatic expert analysis.

Conclusion

The headline figure that Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves is more complicated in reality. Economic, technical, and global market constraints mean that only a fraction of these reserves is currently extractable and profitable. Massive investment, time, and favorable oil prices would be needed for Venezuela to return to its oil-rich glory days—and even then, success is far from guaranteed.

If you have more questions for the team, you can contact them at moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

More or Less – Does Venezuela Really Have the Biggest Oil Reserves in the World?

Podcast: More or Less
Host: Tim Harford (BBC Radio 4)
Air Date: January 10, 2026
Guests: Artem Abramov (Rystad Energy), Hal Hodson (The Economist)

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela’s Oil: The Basics and The Myth

Venezuela is often cited as having the largest proven oil reserves in the world—allegedly 300 billion barrels.
Despite enormous reserves, actual oil production plummeted from 3.5 million barrels/day in the 1970s to only 600,000 in 2020.
Quote [03:05]:
Artem Abramov: “The country which was one producing 3.5 million barrels a day saw the production declining towards 600,000 in 2020. That was the bottom. It recovered slightly, you know, between 2020 and now, but it’s still roughly 1 million bars.”

2. Understanding 'Proven Reserves' and Economic Realities

Not all oil is equal: oil reserves estimates depend on price, technology, and the physical characteristics of the oil.
'Proven' reserves only count oil that is economically extractable—these numbers rise and fall with global oil prices.
Quote [04:24]:
Artem Abramov: “You try to quantify the amount of oil which can be economically produced... you’re seeing, like, it’s a very different number which can be extracted at $100 per barrel oil price versus 30 or $40 per barrel.”

3. Venezuela’s Oil Quality Problem

Venezuelan oil is extremely heavy, more akin to tar, requiring intensive effort and advanced technology to extract and refine.
Quote [05:11]:
Hal Hodson: “Oil is not oil. Oil in Saudi Arabia is completely different than oil in Venezuela. Oil in Venezuela is actually tar. It is under the ground a long, long way... you have to tunnel your way through this tar, inject a bunch of chemicals down there to make it liquefy.”

4. Reserve Figures: Reality vs. Rhetoric

The official 300 billion barrels figure is based on high oil prices ($100+/barrel); at current prices (~$60/barrel), maybe only half is economically viable.
Venezuela’s reported reserves have not decreased despite significant drops in prices and production—a red flag.
Quote [06:04]:
Artem Abramov: “When you sell actually lifted their proven reserves all the way to 300... they never went back because... oil prices declined... but the proven reserve figure stayed at 300 billion barrels. Today's oil prices, they're around $60 per barrel. And at $60 per barrel, maybe only half... can actually be extracted economically.”

5. Infrastructure and Investment Needs

Decades-old infrastructure (pipelines, wells) is decaying; rapid ramp-up to former production levels is unrealistic.
Quote [07:05]:
Artem Abramov: “All these facilities and pipelines... they are still from like 1970, 1980, and they were not properly maintained.... maybe 200, maybe 300,000 bar of additional oil production... which are maybe easily available within 18, maybe 24 months. But that’s a maximum.”
Full recovery (to historic highs) would require about $183 billion over 15 years with massive upfront investment from international oil companies.
Quote [07:47]:
Artem Abramov: “We're talking about 15-year horizon at least. So if you start investing today, then by 2040... Venezuela [could] get back to 3 million barrels a day.... you need at least $30 billion of capital from international oil companies, like in the first two, three years.”

6. Global Oil Market Constraints

Only the US and China have refineries equipped to handle Venezuela's ultra-heavy oil; US refineries are almost maxed out.
The global oil market is currently oversupplied, with spare capacity in several other major oil-producing countries.
Risk for investors: the additional Venezuelan oil could depress prices further in a fragile market.
Quote [08:57]:
Artem Abramov: “Global oil market is oversupplied... you have the US Shale, which has grown quite a lot... demand is not growing as fast and it’s very fragile balance... Venezuela adding another million or 2 million barrels a day... will have very severe implications for the revenues.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Trump Soundbite [01:59]:
Donald Trump: “The oil companies are going to go in, they're going to spend money, we're going to take back the oil that frankly we should have taken back a long time ago.”
(Highlighted as the tone for popular oil-related theories, not a statement of fact.)
On the mismatch between reserves and reality [06:31]:
Tim Harford: “So we're looking at less than 150 billion barrels, which is still a big number. It's just half the number Venezuela claims.”
On infrastructure realities [07:05]:
Artem Abramov: “...all these facilities and pipelines... not properly maintained... there is no more than 200, maybe 300,000 bar of additional oil production which can be extracted from existing wells.... that’s a maximum [in 18-24 months].”
On the 15-year timeline [07:47]:
Artem Abramov: “We're talking about 15-year horizon at least. So if you start investing today, then by 2040, I think it is possible theoretically for Venezuela to get back to 3 million barrels a day ... $183 billion USD over 15 year period.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

[01:18] – Introduction, setting of the recent geopolitical context
[02:37] – Background on Venezuela’s oil history and export economy
[03:05] – Production collapse and status
[03:44] – Reserve numbers vs production realities
[04:24] – Explanation: defined ‘proven reserves’ and how oil prices affect them
[05:11] – Differences in oil quality; technical and financial challenges
[06:04] – Ballooning reserve claims despite falling prices
[07:05] – Realistic short-term production increases
[07:47] – The cost, time, and foreign investment needed for a full-scale ramp-up
[08:29] – Market, technical, and economic barriers facing international investors

Tone and Style

Conclusion

If you have more questions for the team, you can contact them at moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

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Does Venezuela really have the biggest oil reserves in the world?

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Summary

More or Less – Does Venezuela Really Have the Biggest Oil Reserves in the World?

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela’s Oil: The Basics and The Myth

2. Understanding 'Proven Reserves' and Economic Realities

3. Venezuela’s Oil Quality Problem

4. Reserve Figures: Reality vs. Rhetoric

5. Infrastructure and Investment Needs

6. Global Oil Market Constraints

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Tone and Style

Conclusion

Summary

More or Less – Does Venezuela Really Have the Biggest Oil Reserves in the World?

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela’s Oil: The Basics and The Myth

2. Understanding 'Proven Reserves' and Economic Realities

3. Venezuela’s Oil Quality Problem

4. Reserve Figures: Reality vs. Rhetoric

5. Infrastructure and Investment Needs

6. Global Oil Market Constraints

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Tone and Style

Conclusion