Factchecking America

Summary

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"Factchecking America" – More or Less (BBC Radio 4)

Date: September 24, 2012
Host: Yan Wong
Guests: Charlotte Pritchard, Robert Williams (Tax Policy Center), Carol Dougherty (Pew Research Center), Brooks Jackson (FactCheck.org)

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Episode Overview

This episode of "More or Less" focuses on factchecking the numbers and statistics circulating during the 2012 US presidential campaign. Host Yan Wong—standing in for Tim Harford—dives into claims made by both major parties, scrutinizing the veracity and context of key political talking points. The episode specifically interrogates famous figures like "the 47%" of non-taxpayers, the definition of the American ‘middle class,’ and job creation numbers touted by President Obama. Key experts and factcheckers weigh in to clarify and sometimes debunk the political use of data.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Mitt Romney’s "47% Pay No Income Tax" Remark

• Context: Mitt Romney was recorded claiming that 47% of Americans pay no income tax and implied they're dependent on state handouts (00:44).
• Fact Check:
  • Charlotte Pritchard: Confirms the figure is approximately correct: "Last year, 46% of Americans paid no federal income tax." However, she points out that not all these people are on public assistance or pay no tax at all (01:21).
  • Robert Williams (Tax Policy Center):
    • "60% of those people who don't pay income tax, work, and therefore pay payroll taxes... Of the remainder, more than half are elderly retirees" (01:44).
    • Many of those not paying federal income tax are either working but taxed in other ways, or are retirees with little to no taxable income.
  • Yan Wong: Summarizes: "Nearly 2/3 of the people Mitt Romney was talking about are actually in work and paying taxes" (02:12).

2. Do “Non-Taxpayers” Always Vote Democrat?

• Claim: Romney suggests those not paying income tax are staunch Democrats.
• Fact Check:
  • Carol Dougherty (Pew Research Center):
    • "One of the stronger groups for Republicans... has been, you know, white working class men..." (02:34)
    • Voting patterns are more nuanced, and key segments of the "working poor" have recently supported Republicans.

3. Defining the "Middle Class"

• Political Claims:
  • Mitt Romney, and also President Obama, frame the “middle class” as those earning up to $200,000–$250,000 per year (03:21).
• Fact Check:

  • Robert Williams: "The median income in the United States is just about $50,000... only about 2 or 3% of Americans have incomes above those thresholds" (04:05).

  • Charlotte Pritchard: Explains that the median better represents typical earners than the average, which is skewed by the ultra-wealthy (04:34).

    Notable Quote:

    • Robert Williams: "If Bill Gates walks into a bar, everyone on average is a millionaire. That doesn't represent what the people in the bar's average income is..." (04:57)

4. Obama’s “4.5 Million Jobs Created” Claim

• Political Claims:
  • President Obama and other Democrats tout “4.5 million private sector jobs” created over 29 months (05:30).
• Fact Check:
  • Brooks Jackson (FactCheck.org):
    • "It's true... but... they're measuring this from the absolute bottom of the job slump and the economy has not regained all the jobs that it has lost since the President took office." (06:22)
    • Cherry-picking starting points can make numbers look more favorable.

5. Examining Factchecking Impartiality & Selection Bias

• Media Bias Allegation:
  • Yan Wong raises the charge that factchecking organizations might be unfairly critical of Republicans (07:08).
• Brooks Jackson’s Response:
  • "We don't keep score... you'll see plenty of criticism of both sides" (07:12).
  • On self-correction: "Sometimes we make mistakes... and we correct them quickly and quite transparently on our website, which is something politicians do not do" (07:40).
  • On story selection: "We just love to debunk political falsehoods and if we get served up a fat, juicy one, why, we're going to hit it out of the park no matter which team is pitching." (08:06)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Yan Wong (joking on radio mishaps):
  • "It can happen to anyone, even American presidential candidates" (00:41)
• Charlotte Pritchard:
  • "The main surprise here is that on the face of it, Mitt Romney is about right... But the idea that all those people are living off state handouts... is very wide off the mark" (01:21)
• Robert Williams (on median vs. average):
  • "If Bill Gates walks into a bar, everyone on average is a millionaire..." (04:57)
• Brooks Jackson:
  • "We don’t have any kind of index of which party we're criticizing more..." (07:12)
  • "…if we get served up a fat, juicy [falsehood], why, we’re going to hit it out of the park no matter which team is pitching." (08:06)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:44] – Romney’s "47%" remark and context
• [01:21–02:12] – Fact-checking who the "47%" are (Williams)
• [02:29–02:53] – Voting behavior among working poor (Dougherty)
• [03:21–04:20] – The “middle class” numbers debate (Romney, Williams)
• [04:34–04:57] – Explanation of median vs average with barroom joke (Pritchard, Williams)
• [05:30–06:48] – Obama’s job creation numbers and cherry-picking critique (Obama, Williams, Jackson)
• [07:08–08:42] – Factchecker impartiality and internal oversight (Wong, Jackson)

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Tone & Style

The episode balances humor, skepticism, and clarity—typical of "More or Less." Yan Wong keeps the discussion lively while methodically unpacking misleading statistics. The experts provide crisp, evidence-based corrections, and the inclusion of political soundbites adds immediacy and context.

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Summary

If you want a concise yet thorough debunking of some of the most prominent numbers flying around during the 2012 US Presidential campaign, this episode delivers. With rigorous statistical scrutiny and a touch of wit, "More or Less" dispels myths about non-taxpayers, spotlights the political inflation of “middle class” incomes, and uncovers the tricks behind headline job creation numbers. It also provides a behind-the-scenes look at how factchecking organizations strive for impartiality amid political scrutiny.

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Transcript

[BBC Announcer]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[Yan Wong]

hello, welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service, presented this week by me, Yan Wong. Oh, that's a bit rubbish, wasn't it? Radio is harder than it looks. I'll try that again. Hi, welcome to More or Less Taking a Number's Eye view of the world with me, Jan Wong. Better, don't you think? Yeah. Right. One, two, three. Right. Are we ready to record? We've been recording all along. Jan. What? Well, I guess it can happen to anyone, even American presidential candidates.

[Mitt Romney (clip)]

There are 47% of the people who will vote for the President no matter what.

[Yan Wong]

Mitt Romney was secretly recorded at a fundraising event claiming that 47% of Americans pay no income tax. His point was that such people are reliant on state handouts and so would never vote for him because he's not so keen on, well, state handouts. Now, the US Presidential campaign is fertile ground for anyone interested in the misuse of numbers. So we thought we'd devote all of this week's program to examining questionable claims made by both sides, starting with Mr. Romney and his 47%. Charlotte Pritchard, you've been on the case.

[Charlotte Pritchard]

I have. The main surprise here is that on the face of it, Mitt Romney is about right. Last year, 46% of Americans paid no federal income tax. But the idea that all those people are living off state handouts or even paying no tax at all is very wide off the mark. I've been speaking to Robert and Williams from the Tax Policy Centre, an independent think tank which came up with these numbers in the first place.

[Robert Williams]

Mitt Romney misinterpreted the meaning of those 46%. 60% of those people who don't pay income tax, work, and therefore pay payroll taxes, the taxes that support our Social Security program and Medicare program. Of the remainder, more than half are elderly retirees who have worked but are now retired. And their incomes are either too low to pay tax or because we give special preference for Social Security benefits, they don't pay tax on that basis.

[Yan Wong]

So nearly 2/3 of the people Mitt Romney was talking about are actually in work and. And paying taxes. But in a way, the second part of Mitt Romney's claim is even more interesting. The idea that, in effect, he can ignore poor Americans because they'll never vote Republican. Is he right?

[Carol Dougherty]

No, he's not.

[Yan Wong]

That's Carol Dougherty from the Pew Research center in Washington D.C. in our polling

[Carol Dougherty]

you can see a variety of evidence that shows in fact one of the stronger groups for Republicans generally in recent years has been, you know, white working class men. They've moved more to the Republican Party in recent years. This is a pretty solid trend in recent years.

[Yan Wong]

Carol Doughty from the Pew Research Centre, which describes itself as a fact tank, I presume that's some sort of evidence based war machine. Now all this raises a how much do politicians actually know about their voters?

[Charlotte Pritchard]

That's a good question. For example, both sides in the US election have talked a lot about the middle class who they say they want to help. But there seems to be some confusion about where the middle in America actually is. Here's Mitt Romney speaking on ABC News.

[Mitt Romney (clip)]

The fundamentals of my tax policy are these, number one, reduce tax burdens on middle income people. So no one can say my plan is going to raise taxes on middle income people because principle number one is keep the burden down on middle income taxes. $100,000 middle income, no, middle income is 200, $250,000 and less.

[Yan Wong]

So according to Mitt Romney, middle income is $200,000 to $250,000 or less. But it's not just the Republicans. President Obama's been boasting about middle class tax cuts and in that he includes households whose income is under that magic number, $250,000. Robert and Williams from America's Tax Policy Centre says anyone who thinks a family on a quarter of a million dollars is even close to the middle is way, way the median income in the

[Robert Williams]

United States is just about $50,000. So this is much, much higher than the median income. Most people are well, well below those numbers. And in fact, we estimate that only about 2 or 3% of Americans have incomes above those thresholds.

[Yan Wong]

So for families on $250,000, to be middle class, the middle class would have to extend to the 97th percentile. In other words, most of America. CHARLOTTE it might be worth explaining that $50,000 is the median income rather than a simple average.

[Charlotte Pritchard]

It's the kind of point we less the problem with a simple average is that it gets skewed by the top earners. You can earn at the extremes, billions, but it's hard to earn less than nothing. So average income will be a lot higher than the actual incomes most people take home. ROBERT and Williams has a better way to explain it. JAN have you ever heard a joke told by a tax analyst?

[Yan Wong]

I don't think I have.

[Robert Williams]

There's a joke that says if Bill Gates walks into a bar, everyone on average is a millionaire. That doesn't represent what the people in the bar's average income is. It says that if you've got a very, very rich person average with a number of very ordinary people, their income can look very large if you look only at averages. If you look at the median, you get a much better measure of the typical income of a group of people.

[Yan Wong]

Robert and Williams, let's move on to another questionable number which has been doing the rounds in this campaign. It comes from the Democrats and here it is being deployed again and again at the Democratic National Convention.

[Barack Obama (clip)]

And today our economy has gone from losing 800,000 jobs a month to adding four and a half million private sector jobs in the last 29 months. Under President Obama, we've gone from losing 800,000 jobs a Month to adding 4.5 million private sector jobs over the last 29 months.

[Robert Williams]

The worst job loss since the Great Depression. We've since created 4.5 million private sector jobs in the past 29 months.

[Yan Wong]

I asked Brooks Jackson, founder of the website FactCheck.org to nail this one. He says the Democrats are guilty of cherry picking, choosing when to start counting to make the data look as flattering as possible.

[Brooks Jackson]

Well, it's true that the economy has regained 4.5 million private sector jobs. That ignores government jobs, of course. A lot of teachers and policemen are still laid off and it doesn't look quite so good if you include those. The essential point to keep in mind here is that they're measuring this from the absolute bottom of the job slump and the economy has not regained all the jobs that it has lost since the President took office.

[Yan Wong]

So what I'm actually interested in as well is whether or not people think accurate to think that some of the fact checking organisations themselves give a slightly skewed picture because as I understand it, the Republicans often claim that the media in general is biased against them.

[Brooks Jackson]

Both sides, I think, complain about us when we criticize them.

[Yan Wong]

It does seem to be a little biased, sort of against the Republicans.

[Brooks Jackson]

Well, I don't agree with that. We don't keep score. We don't have any kind of index of which party is we're criticizing more. But I'll tell you, if you look at our website fairly, I think you'll see plenty of criticism of both sides.

[Yan Wong]

Have you thought about ways you might be able to fact check yourself or you know, who guards the guardians to work out whether or not you are and associated fact checking organizations have that sort of impartiality that they claim to.

[Brooks Jackson]

We do. Sometimes we make mistakes, usually little ones, and we correct them quickly and quite transparently on our website, which is something politicians do not do.

[Yan Wong]

But there's a more subtle issue, isn't there, of sort of selection bias in that? Which stories do you pick? Do you attempt to, for example, pick equal numbers of facts to check from the Democrats or the Republicans? How do you choose which particular facts to check? Because you can't check them all, presumably.

[Brooks Jackson]

No, we don't impose any sort of arbitrary quota. What we do is apply the same standards of accuracy to all sides. And those standards are the same standards I, as an editor, might apply to a reporter turning in copy. I figure, you know, if I'd fire a reporter for turning in copy like I'm reading in this television ad, then I'm justified in criticizing it. It's absolutely true that we just love to debunk political falsehoods and if we get served up a fat, juicy one, why, we're going to hit it out of the park no matter which team is pitching.

[Yan Wong]

Brooks jackson from factcheck.org our thanks to him and our other esteemed contributors and of course, to the inimitable Charlotte Pritchard. That's your lot for this week. Next week we will, among other things, be asking whether data could do for football what it's done for baseball. Don't Forget our website, BBC.co.uk more or less, or our email address, more or lessbc.co.uk. we'd love to hear from you. Until next week. Goodbye.

[Charlotte Pritchard]

More or Less was presented by Yan Wong and the producer was Richard Knight.

[BBC Announcer]

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