Female Drink Drivers

Summary

More or Less – Female Drink Drivers

BBC Radio 4 | Host: Tim Harford | Date: May 22, 2015

Episode Overview

This episode of "More or Less," hosted by Tim Harford, investigates and demystifies a range of statistical claims circulating in media and public debate. With a characteristic mix of wit and rigor, Tim and his guests tackle questions on drink driving trends among women, the so-called "Rotterdam Effect" in UK export statistics, the actual number of owl species worldwide, the veracity of U.S. death penalty statistics, and claims about the decline of British pubs. The team draws on data—sometimes debunking it—to offer listeners well-evidenced, balanced insights behind the numbers.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Female Drink Drivers: Are They On the Rise?

[00:31–02:15]

• Claim Investigated: Police Federation claimed anti-drink driving messages weren't reaching women, citing a 16% rise in female convictions and a 25% drop among men.
• Expert Input: Charlotte MacDonald, alcohol data specialist, points out the figures used were outdated—2003–2009 data. More recent data (2003–2012) shows women's convictions actually fell by 7%.
• Trends:
  • Female drink driving rose slightly in the late 1990s, but leveled off and has declined since 2010.
  • Men's convictions are dropping dramatically, but their absolute numbers remain much higher; in 2003, men were convicted eight times more than women, now about five times as often.
  • Conclusion: It's a "bit of a stretch" to suggest women should be the main campaign focus.
• Notable Quote:
  • "The 24% drop in the conviction rate for men and the 16% rise in the conviction rates for women are true between 2003 and 2009. But...between 2003 and 2012 the number of women convicted for drink driving has actually fallen by 7%." – Charlotte MacDonald [01:11]
  • "A bit of a stretch to suggest that women drink drivers need to be the main focus." – Charlotte MacDonald [02:15]

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2. The Rotterdam Effect: Where Do UK Exports Really Go?

[02:23–10:31]

• Listener Question: Are UK exports via Rotterdam being misclassified as EU exports, exaggerating the UK's reliance on European markets?
• Explanation:
  • The Rotterdam Effect refers to goods routed through Rotterdam being counted as EU-bound, even if destined elsewhere.
  • Official UK statistics (ONS): 50% of goods exports go to the EU.
• ONS Statement: Catherine Kent (ONS) clarifies that companies should report the ultimate destination, but admits some errors are possible.
• ONS Calculation:
  • If all UK exports to the Netherlands were actually for non-EU destinations, the EU share would drop from 50% to 42%.
  • Adding similar effects from Antwerp (Belgium) might reduce that by another 2%.
  • The "big picture" remains: the EU is by far the UK's leading trading partner.
  • The USA remains the biggest individual trading partner (13% of exports).
• Dutch Statistics:
  • Peter Hein van Mulligen (Statistics Netherlands) says 40–50% of UK imports to NL are re-exported, mostly within the EU.
  • Complexities arise from ownership changes (e.g., within Shell), leading to "statistical blips."
  • Even accounting for all effects, the EU still accounts for at least 49% of UK exports.
• Memorable Moments:
  • "I love it when we make the Office for National Statistics reach anxiously for their calculators." – Tim Harford [06:58]
  • "The Rotterdam Effect can't possibly knock [UK exports to the EU] below 42%... that's highly unlikely." – Tim Harford [06:58]
• Key Quote:
  • "If all our exports to the Netherlands were in reality intended for outside the EU, it would reduce the proportion of our exports of goods to the EU from 50% to 42%." – Catherine Kent (ONS) [05:38]
  • "Whichever way you care to slice the figures, the European Union remains by far the biggest market for British exports." – Tim Harford [10:31]

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3. How Many Owl Species Are There?

[11:13–15:23]

• Listener Query: BBC2’s "Super Powered Owls" claims 240 species. Julia, a viewer, cited a book that said 135.
• Expert Consultations:
  • Hein van Grau (Natural History Museum, London): 213 species
  • Aid Long (BirdLife International): 241 species
  • Tom Schulenberg (Cornell): 225 species
  • Harvard expert: another estimate
• Reasons for Variation:
  • Differences in taxonomies, inclusion/exclusion of "true" and barn owls, ongoing discoveries and reclassifications, presence of subspecies.
• Illustrative Story:
  • A Netherlands museum thought it had an oddly-colored owl but found, after expert input, that it was a new species.
• Summary:
  • Realistic range: 213–241; "around 240" is a safe (if vague) estimate.
  • The lowest estimate (135) is likely out of date or overly restrictive.
• Quotes:
  • "The average from the experts I consulted is 230. But who knows how many more figures there are out there? I'd say around 240 is safe." – Hannah Moore [15:05]
  • "That also shows that many species are so much look alike that you can hardly tell the difference from the outside without having a closer look and doing measurements." – Hein van Grau [14:43]

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4. Death Penalty: U.S. Statistics and the Innocence Rate

[15:38–23:33]

• Listener Question: Bryan Stevenson claimed, “for every nine people that we have executed in America, we've identified one innocent person on death row.” Is this accurate?
• Expert Response:
  • Frank R. Baumgartner (UNC): From 1976, 152 people were exonerated, about 1400 executed. So, "the numbers are exactly right."
• Exploration of Causes:
  • Death penalty cases are emotionally charged; about 75% of such cases are overturned on review (not always resulting in full exoneration).
  • Only 13% of those sentenced to death are actually executed since 1976; most either have sentences overturned or remain on death row.
  • Huge state-by-state variation: e.g., in California only about 1% of those sentenced have been executed.
  • Death row inmates and their lawyers deliberately slow the process; states often lack incentive to expedite.
• Global Perspective:
  • Carolyn Hoyle (Oxford): Globally, abolition of the death penalty has accelerated—107 countries have abolished it, 52 are functionally abolitionist.
  • Only 39 countries have carried out executions in the last 10 years.
  • Reliable global statistics on wrongful capital convictions are lacking, but the U.S. numbers may be a low bound.
  • Example: in China, wrongful executions continue, with cases overturned after the realization that there was no crime.
• Notable Quotes:
  • "For every nine people that we have executed in America, we've identified one innocent person on death row." – Bryan Stevenson [15:58]
  • “The numbers are exactly right. It is shocking.” – Frank R. Baumgartner [16:20]
  • “13% of people since 1976 who've been sentenced to death...have been executed.” – Frank R. Baumgartner [17:46]
  • “On review, a majority of these cases are overturned.” – Frank R. Baumgartner [16:53]
  • “The trend is surprisingly big and surprisingly recent...Today, 107 countries have abolished the death penalty.” – Carolyn Hoyle [21:05]

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5. The Fate of the Great British Pub

[23:33–27:14]

• Claim: Campaign for Real Ale (CAMRA) reports 29 pubs are closing each week.
• Expert: John Collins (CGA Strategy), firm that provides numbers to CAMRA.
  • The figure is accurate for recent years; the closure rate accelerated around 2007.
  • Drivers include licensing reform, the 2007 smoking ban, and cheap supermarket alcohol.
  • Closures mostly affect local, community pubs.
• Sector Trends:
  • Despite closures, other venues (wine bars, restaurants, gastropubs) are opening.
  • Restaurants and midrange hotels are driving new openings; about 20 restaurants open weekly.
  • Now, pubs are about half of licensed venues (down from 60%).
  • There is greater diversity and quality in beer, but less so in traditional pubs.
• Tone: Measured nostalgia—acknowledging the shift, but highlighting positive trends in beer and food options.
• Quotes:
  • "Almost all of the closures within the pub world are coming from that local community, Pulp [sic]." – John Collins [25:18]
  • "[There’s] a better range of beer in this country now than there probably has been, certainly in the last 50 years." – John Collins [26:49]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "At least she didn’t pull the number out of thin air." – Tim Harford [00:31]
• “The Rotterdam Effect can’t possibly knock [UK exports to the EU] below 42%... that’s highly unlikely.” – Tim Harford [06:58]
• "If all our exports to the Netherlands were in reality intended for outside the EU, it would reduce the proportion of our exports of goods to the EU from 50% to 42%." – Catherine Kent, ONS [05:38]
• “Whichever way you care to slice the figures, the European Union remains by far the biggest market for British exports.” – Tim Harford [10:31]
• "For every nine people that we have executed in America, we've identified one innocent person on death row." – Bryan Stevenson [15:58]
• "The numbers are exactly right. It is shocking." – Frank R. Baumgartner [16:20]
• “13% of people since 1976 who've been sentenced to death...have been executed.” – Frank R. Baumgartner [17:46]
• "The average from the experts I consulted is 230. But who knows how many more figures there are out there? I'd say around 240 is safe." – Hannah Moore [15:05]

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Important Timestamps

| Segment | Start | End | Description | |------------------------------------------|--------|--------|---------------------------------------------------| | Female Drink Drivers | 00:31 | 02:15 | Debunking rise in female drink driving convictions | | Rotterdam Effect/UK Export Statistics | 02:23 | 10:31 | Which markets do UK goods really reach? | | Owl Species Count | 11:13 | 15:23 | How many species of owls exist? | | US Death Penalty Statistics | 15:38 | 23:33 | Innocence rate, execution frequency, global view | | The Decline of the British Pub | 23:33 | 27:14 | Pub closures, sector trends |

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Tone and Takeaways

The episode is witty, rigorous, and conversational—typical of "More or Less." Tim Harford and guests use expert testimony and official data to gently debunk myths and provide listeners with useful context behind the numbers that shape public debate. Each segment balances skepticism with good humor, offering clear, practical conclusions while encouraging an informed and questioning mindset.

Transcript

[A]

Thank you for downloading this programme from BBC Radio 4. I'm Tim Harford. Hello and welcome to More or Less, your weekly guide to the numbers in the news and in life. This week, angry Owls, the death of the Great British pub. And we ask the Office for National Statistics to do some hard sums.

[B]

45, 90 divided by 3. Oh, 8. 1, 13%.

[A]

Well, at least she didn't pull the number out of thin air. But first, this week the Police Federation told us that the anti drink drive message wasn't getting through to women. And whilst convictions for men had dropped by a quarter, convictions for women had risen by 16%. But loyal listener Sarah emailed more or [e-mail] to ask whether in fact this was just that there were lots of men drink driving in the first place and very few women, rather than there being a problem with the advertising. Well, Charlotte MacDonald is our alcohol expert. Charlotte, do we know whether it's true that the drink drive campaign is failing to persuade women?

[C]

We don't, but more fundamentally, we don't know where the Police Federation thinks these numbers are from. It looks like cherry picking old data to us. The 24% drop in the conviction rate for men and the 16% rise in the conviction rates for for women are true between 2003 and 2009. But we have more recent figures and they show that between 2003 and 2012 the number of women convicted for drink driving has actually fallen by 7%.

[A]

Do we have a sense of the broader trend?

[C]

We don't have figures for every year, but we do have data points here and there which suggest that female drink driving was slightly on the rise in the late 1990s but levelled off after the turn of the century and has been falling since 2010.

[A]

What about the men?

[C]

Convictions for men have dropped dramatically, but from a much higher level. In 2003, eight times as many men as women were convicted for drink driving. The latest figures had that down to five times as many. A bit of a stretch to suggest that women drink drivers need to be the main focus.

[A]

Charlotte MacDonald, thank you. This could be Rotterdam or anywhere Liverpool or Rome.

[D]

Cause Rotterdam.

[A]

Loyal listener Ian Swan asks us.

[E]

People are constantly told by government and corporations that roughly 50% of our exports go to Europe and as such Europe is our major export market. Through my contacts in shipping and others, this is just not true. When an export goes via Rotterdam Europe to an end destination outside of Europe, it it is still classed as a European rather than rest of world export because it has gone to the Rotterdam hub. Initially, Europe's largest port. Can you please get to the bottom of these facts? Is Europe our largest export end market? Thank you.

[A]

Now, we love a nerdy question about the deep details of economic statistics, but this isn't just a nerdy question. The scale of our trading relationship with the European Union is going to be at the heart of the DEB surrounding the coming referendum on EU membership. So let's get to work. Trade figures tend to measure goods and services, but for this we're looking purely at goods, things that can be physically transported. What Ian is describing is actually a well established statistical recording problem. It's called the Rotterdam Effect. And the idea is that lots of goods are shipped around the world via Rotterdam, the second largest port in the world. And there's a concern that goods get misrecorded as going to the Netherlands when in fact they're destined for somewhere else. People have been worrying about this effect for decades. We started our investigation into the size of the Rotterdam Effect in the uk.

[C]

Oh, hello. Is that the Office for National Statistics? Yeah, I just had it.

[A]

We checked the nationally recorded statistics and ian is right. Officially, 50% of the UK's exports of goods and go to the European Union. I spoke to the team at the Office for National Statistics who compile the UK's trade figures to find out whether goods going to Rotterdam but intended for outside of Europe were being misrecorded as exports to the Netherlands.

[B]

There is always the potential for that type of recording error and it would

[A]

be regarded as an error. They are supposed to say it's going to the United States.

[B]

They're supposed to put the final destination.

[A]

This is Catherine Kent of the ons. She is responsible for trade statistics. She says that because companies have to tell her magus, Revenue and Customs the final destination of their goods, the official statistics should be accurate. But she admits the picture's more complicated than that. The Netherlands is One of the UK's top trading partners, which is surprising for a country with a population of less than 17 million and which may well have something to do with the mighty port of Rotterdam. The ONS couldn't be sure how much of the UK's exports to the Netherlands were being misreported. So they did a thought experiment. They worked out what the impact would be on our trade figures if all our exports to the Netherlands were in reality intended for outside the eu.

[B]

Taking the whole of our exports to the Netherlands as being destined for countries outside of the EU would reduce the proportion of our exports of goods to the EU from 50% to 42%.

[A]

Okay, so the largest possible number for the Rotterdam Effect would reduce our exports to the EU from 50% to 42%. It doesn't change the big picture that the EU is a major trading partner. Unless. What about the other ports in the European Union? Do we have a sense of how important these other ports are?

[B]

The next biggest one, I suppose, is Antwerp in Belgium. And our trade with Belgium is approximately half of what we export to the Netherlands.

[A]

So it might be another 2%. There could be. I just get a sense that this effect is not going to be big enough to change the picture that the EU is an important trading partner. So if the EU is our largest trading partner, who's our second largest?

[B]

The USA is our biggest individual trading partner.

[A]

And what percentage of exports and imports with the US?

[B]

Let's try and work out the percentages again. So that's 5, 9 divided by 13% of our exports go to the USA.

[A]

13. Okay.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I love it when we make the Office for National Statistics reach anxiously for their calculators. But to recap, the official statistics are that 13% of our exports go to the United States, but 50% to the European Union, that's almost four times as much. And the Rotterdam Effect can't possibly knock that below 42%. Even on the extreme assumption that every single container and barrel of oil that we think we're exporting to the Netherlands is in fact promptly shipped outside the European Union, barely touching Europe's shores. But that's highly unlikely. Surely some of our exports to the Netherlands stay in the EU and for that matter, stay in the Netherlands. And we know who to call to ask about that. After all, if you think the UK Office for National Statistics is concerned about the Rotterdam Effect, just imagine how obsessed with it the Dutch Statistical Office is.

[F]

I am Peter Hein von Mulluchen. I'm the chief economist of ST Statistics, Netherlands.

[A]

I asked Peter if he knew what happens to UK imports once they reach the Netherlands. What proportion of them are re exported?

[F]

We're not quite sure. It's probably between 40 and 50% of total imports from the UK that is re exported, and a majority of that is re exported to other EU countries.

[A]

So roughly what percentage?

[F]

I would say about 80%.

[A]

That suggests that the Rotterdam Effect might nudge our exports to the EU from 50% down to 49%. And how do the Dutch statisticians distinguish between a product that's simply changing ships in Rotterdam and one that's being processed or marketed or otherwise having real value added within the Netherlands?

[F]

Well the main issue here is ownership. Whether a UK resident sells something to a Dutch resident, it does count as international trade and some of that is maybe warehoused and other stuff is re exported within a short amount of time. But it also happens that UK residents, they keep the ownership of say crude oil that is warehoused in the port of Rotterdam and then it will only end up as an export if it is eventually sold to another country like the US or Germany.

[A]

And you mentioned crude oil. How important is crude oil as far as Netherlands trade statistics are concerned?

[F]

Britain is our main trade partner of crude oil, but the majority of the crude oil is refined in the Netherlands and much of that is exported. Of the total refined oil products, about 60% is exported to EU countries.

[A]

If ownership is very important, how do you factor in the behaviour of multinational or transnational companies?

[F]

Well, they sometimes cause, well we call them statistical blips, a bit of a pain in the neck. For example, say Shell warehouses a lot of crude oil in the port of Rotterdam and sometimes this crude oil changes hands within the holding of Shell. One day it's the property of Shell the Netherlands, the next day it somehow ends up in the hands of Shell Germany. These are usually done for bookkeeping reasons, but it does end up in our trade statistics and that may well cause some difficulties sometimes.

[A]

So the oil stays in Rotterdam, it's shifted within the Royal Dutch Shell group doesn't move at all. But it counts as international trade as far as the trade figures are concerned.

[F]

Yes it does.

[A]

Peter Hein van Mulligan of Statistics Netherlands explaining that keeping track of products in the global economy isn't always easy. And it's true that the Dutch are clever traders selling on about half of what they buy from the uk. But most of that trade rem within Europe. Whichever way you care to slice the figures, the European Union remains by far the biggest market for British exports. Of course that's the past. Who can speak with confidence about the future? Wisdom comes to us only after the fact. Or as Georg Hegel put it, the owl of Minerva spreads its wings only with the falling of the dusk. Speaking of owls with their familiar faces,

[G]

these charismatic birds have captured our imagination. There are about two hundred and forty different species.

[A]

That was the BBC2 documentary Super Powered Owls. Two hundred and forty species of owls seems like a reasonable number. After all, owls appear on every continent but Antarctica, don't you know. But our owl eared listener Julia has a problem with that claim. And that's because just as she was watching the documentary, she was also reading a Book about owls. I think she likes owls. This book is called the Owl who Liked Sitting On Caesar and it says that there are only 135 species, not 240. So Julia asked us if we could take a closer beak at the figures and we set our owl correspondent Hannah Moore on the case and it looks like. Yes, she's just swooping into the studio now.

[H]

Hi, Tim.

[A]

Hello, Hannah. So this sounds like an easy job. Which of these two numbers is correct?

[H]

You'd think it was easy. I phoned some ornithologists such as Hein van Grau from the Natural History Museum in London. What's your favourite species of owl?

[I]

Oh, that's a tricky one. I quite like the little owls. They have very nice behaviour, nice little chaps.

[H]

So how many owls do you think there are? How many species of owls?

[I]

If you count them up, all together, there are 213 species. My name is Aid Long. I work at Birdlife International. Birdlife is the Red List authority on birds. So we compile data on birds and actually look at which ones are becoming more threatened. Birdlife International's taxonomy recognises 241 species. I'm Tom Schulenberg. I'm a research associate at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. One of my assignments is to maintain a database of all the species of birds of the world. According to the checklist that we maintain here at the Lab of ornithology, there are 225 species of owls in the world.

[A]

So superpowered owls said around 240. Hein from the Natural History Museum says 213. Aid from BirdLife gives the highest figure, 241. And Tom from Cornell University thinks it's 225.

[H]

And an expert at Harvard University gave me another number. Again, why can't I just agree? Well, for a start, there are two families of owl, what are often called true owls and then barn owls. And it depends on whether you include both of those in your calculation. Of course, new species are still being found and species are being reclassified. Hein van Grau told me a story about the Natural History Museum in the Netherlands, which had an intriguing specimen of owl. Initially, the museum collector believed he just had an unusually coloured owl of a known species.

[I]

The collector thought, oh, this is a funny color, but must be a different color from a species we already know. Till an American researcher turned up, was looking at something completely different, but did see this particular specimen, thought, this is something new. So she measured it, she researched it, she checked everything and it was described as a new species.

[H]

So you already had an owl in the collection that was labelled as one species and then it was discovered that it was actually a different species.

[I]

Yes. That also shows that many species are so much look alike that you can hardly tell the difference from the outside without having a closer look and doing measurements.

[H]

Plus there are hundreds of subspecies.

[A]

So were the makers of BBC2's Super Powered Owls correct to say that There are around 240 species in the world?

[H]

Well, you notice they fudged that number.

[A]

Very wise.

[H]

Yes. The average from the experts I consulted is 230. But who knows how many more figures there are out there? I'd say around 240 is safe. The estimate from Julia's book 135 seems very low.

[A]

One more question, Hannah. Why is the owl so angry?

[H]

Well, he's a barn owl, so maybe he didn't get counted.

[A]

Perhaps you're right.

[B]

Thank you, Hannah.

[A]

You're listening to More or Less. And our email address is more or lessbc.co.uk and that's how loyal listener James Middleton reached us with this question about a claim made on Desert Island Discs.

[I]

Dear More or less. In a recent Desert Island Discs episode with the lawyer Bryan Stevenson, he claimed

[A]

that for every nine people that we

[G]

have executed in America, we've identified one innocent person on death row.

[I]

Having never really questioned the use of the death penalty in the States, this statistic has really shocked me into reconsidering my views. Is this figure accurate?

[J]

Absolutely.

[A]

This is Frank R. Baumgartner. He's professor of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. In the United States, in our country,

[J]

in the modern period, from 1976 when the death penalty was reinstated by the Supreme Court. So since then there's been 152 people exonerated, completely let go, walked out of prison free men and women. And then in that same time, we've had about 1400 executions. So Bryan Stevenson has the numbers exactly right. It is shocking.

[A]

Do we have a sense of why there are so many convictions that end up being completely overturned and these men being exonerated?

[J]

I think the reason is that always at the core of a death penalty case there is a very heinous crime. And so I think the emotions are very high. Prosecutors are very anxious to get death. I think jurors think that the prosecutor wouldn't ask for it if they weren't certain about the guilt of the individual. And the emotions are so high that on review, a majority of these cases are overturned. I think it's about 75% of cases where all the reviews are complete that have been overturned by subsequent appellate courts.

[A]

So that's not necessarily that the suspect was exonerated completely, but the death penalty itself was ruled to be inappropriate.

[J]

Uh huh.

[A]

If you are sentenced to death, how likely is it that you will eventually end up being executed?

[J]

13%.

[A]

13%.

[J]

1 3% of people since 1976 who've been sentenced to death, 13% of them have been executed. The majority have had their sentence overturned or remain on death row.

[A]

How does that vary from state to state?

[J]

There's only one state that has executed more than 50% of the people that they have sentenced to death, and that is Virginia, where the number is about 75%. They're very strict about limiting appeals to 12 months. There's many states where it's extremely rare. California has only executed 13 people, but they have sentenced to death, I believe over a thousand.

[A]

So only about a 1% chance you will actually be executed having been sentenced to death in California.

[J]

That's right. And just recently in California, a judge ruled that California's death penalty system was unconstitutional because it consisted of a penalty of life without parole with the remote possibility of death. And he said that that is unconstitutional because of the torture.

[A]

It does seem strange that this sentence is called a death penalty, but in fact, death is not by any means the most likely outcome.

[J]

But you're absolutely right, it's a death penalty in name only.

[A]

And why does it take so long for so many states to decide? I can understand why you would want to check and check and check again. But years, decades, it seems odd from

[J]

the inmates attorneys, they will never do anything to speed up the process. So if there's an opportunity to wait another day without filing a motion, any death attorney will wait that other day. Because every day that they wait is the day that their client has not been executed and a day that the United States Supreme Court might come closer to to invalidating the entire death penalty. On the other side, on the prosecutor's side and the state side, once the person's on death row, there are very little danger to anybody else. And so they're not necessarily anxious to move the process as quickly as possible.

[A]

To sum up, of the more than 8000 people sentenced to death in the United States since 1976, over 1400 have been executed. But over 3000 have had the death penalty overturned. And around 3000 remain on death row while their fate continues to be argued over. Some people, of course, have died on death row of natural causes. That was Professor Frank R. Baumgartner. And thank you to James Middleton for his question. If that's the situation in the United States, what about the use of the death penalty around the world? Whatever your views are about whether capital punishment is an acceptable sentence for a crime, it's clear that there's a worldwide trend emerging. Here's Professor Carolyn Hoyle, director of the Centre for Criminology at the University of Oxford. She says that there has been a sharp fall in the use of the death penalty around the world, either legally abolishing it or pragmatically letting it fall into disuse. This trend is surprisingly big and surprisingly recent.

[D]

If you look back to 1998, for example, only 35 countries had abolished the death penalty. Today, 107 countries have abolished the death penalty and another 52 countries are what we call abolitionist. De facto, that means they haven't executed anyone in the last 10 years. So they retain the death penalty on the books, but they're not actively using it. So as of last year, only 39 countries executed anyone in the past 10 years.

[A]

In the United States, the death penalty is also much rarer than it used to be. In the late 1990s, over 250 people a year were being sentenced to death, but the figure is now well below 100 a year. Internationally, as we've heard, fewer than a quarter of the countries around the world have used the death penalty in the last 10 years. These countries are mainly found in parts of Africa, the Middle east and Asia. The death penalty is legal under international law. However, the United nations does stipulate how it should be applied. We've seen that the United States hasn't always been able to secure the correct verdict for capital crimes. So what percentage of convictions internationally are unsafe?

[D]

We don't have the types of reliable statistics that they have in the us. So what we know from other jurisdictions is that there are cases where people have been found to be innocent either after they have been executed or in some cases before and are therefore exonerated. China has had a series of cases where evidence has come to light that somebody who has either been executed or or is on death row was not guilty of the offence. A very high profile case a few years ago of a man who was convicted of killing his neighbour in his village. And in fact, what had happened is the neighbor had just left the village because he owed money to somebody and he wandered back 10 years later, alive and well. So that was a case where not only was he not guilty of that crime, but there hadn't actually been A crime.

[A]

And if we remind ourselves, courtesy of the American lawyer Bryan Stevenson, of what a comparatively rigorous and thorough system produces, for every nine people that we have executed in America, we've identified one innocent

[G]

person on death row.

[D]

If the rate of exonerations is as high as it is in America, if it was possible to collect accurate data from the other countries, they would be much higher, would be my guess.

[A]

Professor Carolyn Hoyle, director at the Centre for Criminology at the University of Oxford. Heavy stuff. Time for a break. I'm in the pub doing my bit for the Great British Boozer, because we're always being told that Great Britain is losing its pubs at an alarming rate. According to the Campaign For Real Ale Camera, 29 pubs are closing across Britain each week and that's 29 net pubs. Yet it doesn't seem like we're running out of places to drink. Wine bars, restaurants, gastropubs, they're still opening. So who could bring the kind of clarity to this debate you'd expect from a really good pint of ale? I spoke to John Collins, he's the chief executive of CGA Strategy, a firm that collects data on pub closures. For Camera and others post war net,

[G]

about two pubs a week were closing. The real ramping up in closure rates happened around 2007 when we had. First of all, the industry was feeling the after effects of licensing reform. You might Remember Cool Britannia, 24 hour licensing. By now we were all going to be living in a European cafe bar culture. We had the smoking ban come through that really did push a lot of marginal pubs to the exit. And we had a really aggressive adoption of pricing in supermarkets, which meant we saw a shift in consumer habit from as a nation, we used to go out to drink and eat at home. Well, that's just reversed over the last decade. And if you look at the closure rates that we have, almost all of the closures within the pub world are coming from that local community, Pulp.

[A]

And the numbers that Camera have been quoting are that 29 pubs a week have closed. And that comes from you, Correct?

[G]

Yes.

[A]

Is that an unusual number?

[G]

Not for the last five years.

[A]

I am curious as to how important pubs are in terms of the number of places you can go and buy an alcoholic drink. How many of them these days are pubs?

[G]

As a proportion, less than ever. The total out of home license market is just north of 120,000 premises.

[A]

That'll be hotels, licensed cafes, restaurants, nightclubs. And how many of them are pubs?

[G]

It's around about half of pubs. Right now, whereas previously the proportion would have been up towards 60%. That's because we're seeing pubs drive closures and restaurants drive openings. Restaurants and actually sort of mid range hotels are the two sectors that are really driving openings right now. We've added another thousand restaurants across the country in the last 12 months, so

[A]

that's 20 a week. So that's not quite as many pubs, as many as the pubs that are closed. But it's nearly there.

[G]

Doesn't hold the universe stable. But there's lots of trends underneath the headline number. And the reality is there's a better range of beer in this country now than there probably has been, certainly in the last 50 years. With all those regional and local and micro brewers that are coming through, we all know a place to go to get a great paint. It's just not necessarily in a traditional pub.

[A]

Our camera just too miserable and grumpy about all this.

[G]

As a camera member myself, I think that they do a phenomenal job of championing great British beer. When it then stretches over to an automatic link from beer to pub, you can start to question, is that the right focus?

[A]

That was John Collins of CGA Strategy. And that's all we have time for this week. But please keep your thoughts flowing into our electronic brain, by which I mean our email inbox, not the more or less 5000. Our email address is more or lessbc.co.uk. our website, including free downloads of the program and its popular spin offs, is BBC.co.uk more or less. We will be back next week. Until then, goodbye. And just a reminder that you can download more [e-mail] Radio 4.