Numbers of 2012

Summary

More or Less (BBC Radio 4): “Numbers of 2012” (Aired December 31, 2012)

Episode Overview

In this special year-end episode, host Tim Harford and his guests look back at the year 2012 through a series of surprising, revealing, and sometimes sobering statistics. The chosen numbers shine a light on major political, economic, and social stories—from the Eurozone crisis and pension sustainability in Brazil to the persistent issues of inclusion in football and the soaring cost of American elections. Each contributor selects a statistic that encapsulated an important story of the year and discusses its implications.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Europe’s Economic Recovery and the 80:20 Banking Ratio

Contributor: Robert Peston, BBC Business Editor

• Key Statistic:
  • Europe: Banks provide 80% of finance for businesses and households
  • USA: Banks provide only 20%; the rest comes from capital markets
• Significance:
  • This heavy dependence on banks explains the Eurozone’s slow recovery post-2008 and why governments like Spain and Ireland have struggled to bail out their oversized banking sectors.
  • Weakness and “deleveraging” of banks leads to suppressed lending, which, in turn, stifles growth.
  • The sheer scale of European banks makes them “too big to save” for some national governments.
• Memorable Quote:
  • “When banks deleverage, when money is not going to households and businesses, frankly, households and businesses can’t spend, they can’t invest and the economy can’t grow.”
    (Robert Peston, 01:40)
• Timestamp: [00:33]–[02:45]

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2. The Unlikelihood of No Gay Players in English League Football

Contributor: Bill Edgar, Football Statistician (The Times)

• Key Statistic:
  • In the 20 years since the last openly gay footballer played in England’s top four divisions (Justin Fashanu):
    • 13,600 league players appeared
    • Probability that none were gay (assuming 1.5% of British men are gay): 1 in 5 x 10^90.
    • Among 3,200 Premier League players: probability is 1 in 10^21.
• Illustrative Analogy:
  • “If the entire earth’s surface was covered with drawing pins edge to edge, the chance of you picking up one specific drawing pin at random would be 200 times higher than the chance of there being no gay player in the Premier League over the past 20 years.”
• Insight:
  • The near impossibility of these numbers highlights a culture in football that discourages players from coming out.
  • The lack of openly gay professional footballers is not unique to England but is seen worldwide.
• Memorable Quote:
  • “All in all, it’s a rather sad commentary on prejudice in the sporting world.”
    (Bill Edgar, 04:58)
• Timestamp: [02:45]–[05:08]

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3. Brazil’s Pension Crisis and Early Retirement

Contributor: Helen Joyce, Brazil Correspondent (The Economist)

• Key Statistic:
  • Average retirement age for Brazilians in the private sector: 53
  • Average life expectancy: well into their 70s, meaning 20 years spent in retirement, on average.
  • Only Italy (famously in pension crisis) spends more on pensions than Brazil among big countries.
• Implications:
  • Heavy government spending on pensions starves other areas—especially funding for children and education.
  • If left unreformed, projections suggest by 2050 Brazilian workers would need to contribute nearly their entire salaries to cover retirees.
  • System is unsustainable; urgent reform is needed.
• Memorable Quote:
  • “Things that can’t go on, don’t go on. So this is going to come to an end. But when?”
    (Helen Joyce, 06:57)
• Timestamp: [05:15]–[07:19]

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4. The Scale of US Election Spending

Contributor: Gillian Tett, Columnist and Assistant Editor (Financial Times)

• Key Statistic:
  • 2012 US presidential election spending: $2.5 billion
  • Total (including Senate and House): $6 billion (~$18 per American)
  • By comparison: last UK general election = £0.50 (50p) per person, last Canadian = 8 CAD per person.
• Perspective:
  • Relative to the US economy, the figure seems less extreme—Americans spent $7 billion on potato chips and $8 billion on Halloween.
• Insight:
  • While vast in comparison to other countries, the US’s election spending may be just another manifestation of American consumer culture.
• Memorable Quote:
  • “Some people say ... at least when you compare it to the other things that Americans could spend money on in a consumer culture.”
    (Gillian Tett, 08:36)
• Timestamp: [07:24]–[08:42]

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Robert Peston (on European banks):
  “It tells you why the European economy has been so sluggish. And it also tells you why governments like Spain and Ireland have been on the brink of bankruptcy because their banks are so big they can’t afford to rescue them.” ([02:23])

• Bill Edgar (on football’s inclusivity):
  “No doubt there have been many gay players in the Premier League, but perhaps not ... as disproportionately as in the country overall. We don’t really know ... All in all, it’s a rather sad commentary on prejudice in the sporting world.” ([04:50]–[05:08])

• Helen Joyce (on pension reform):
  “Brazil has certainly got less than 10 years, I would say, to reform its system in a sensible manner ... otherwise they’re going to get to a stage of complete deadlock.” ([07:10])

• Gillian Tett (on putting US election costs into context):
  “Americans actually spent $7 billion on potato chips this year and ... about $8 billion on the Halloween celebrations.” ([08:23])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:33 – 02:45: Robert Peston reveals the 80:20 European banking statistic and ties it to the Eurozone crisis.
• 02:45 – 05:08: Bill Edgar analyses the statistical improbability of no openly gay English league football players in 20 years.
• 05:15 – 07:19: Helen Joyce exposes the unsustainable early retirement and pension system in Brazil.
• 07:24 – 08:42: Gillian Tett examines the eye-watering spending in the American election and its economic context.

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Conclusion

This episode of “More or Less” powerfully illustrates how numbers reveal the deeper stories behind the year’s headlines: from financial systems and social prejudice to public policy time bombs and cultural spending patterns. Despite their diversity, each statistic carries a common message about the importance of understanding the numbers that shape our world—and not taking them at face value.

Transcript

[A]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[B]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Tim Harford. This week is our special review of the year through the excellent, extraordinary eccentric numbers of 2012. And who better to start the programme than one of the BBC's most excellent, extraordinary and some might say, eccentric presenters?

[C]

I'm Robert Peston, the BBC's business editor. My statistic of the year was given to me by Jean Claude Trichet. He's the former president of the European Central bank and he told me about the 80:20 ratio for Europe and the 20:80 ratio for the United States. In Europe, roughly Speaking, banks provide 80% of the finance needed by businesses and households, whereas in the States, banks provide only 20% of the finance required by businesses and households. Why does this matter? Well, it tells us a huge amount about the crisis in the Eurozone, and it also tells us a huge amount about why the economy of Britain and many of the economies of of Europe in general have singularly failed to recover since the great crash of 2008. Whereas, although the American economy isn't off to the races, it has grown rather more strongly than the European economies. So let's explain the significance of being so dependent on banks. When banks are weak, when they have a shortage of capital, which is palpably true of many Eurozone banks, and arguably, according to the governor of the bank of England, true of British banks, they are reluctant to lend. What they try and do is they actually try and shrink. They try to use the ghastly phrase deleverage. And when banks deleverage, when money is not going to households and businesses, frankly, households and businesses can't spend, they can't invest and the economy can't grow. And also when you have banks playing such an important role, it also turns out banks are enormous. They're so big that when they get into trouble, even governments like the Spanish government find it very difficult to afford to bail for them out. So the 80:20 ratio tells you two fantastically important things. It tells you why the European economy has been so sluggish. And it also tells you why governments like Spain and Ireland have been on the brink of bankruptcy because their banks are so big they can't afford to rescue them.

[D]

I am Bill Edgar. I cover statistics in football for the Times and I'm the author of Back of the net, 100 golden goals. We're just reaching the 20th anniversary of the last time an openly gay footballer played in the league in England. That's the top four divisions. Justin Fashioner was the last one and his career in England ended at Torquay United. So I wanted to work out what the chances were that no league footballer in that time has been gay, whether openly so or not. Assuming there was no reason for the proportion of gay footballers and to differ from the proportion of gay people in society as a whole, many surveys have tried to decide what proportion of British men are gay. Answers have ranged wildly from 1.5% to 6%. So I took the lowest figure of one and a half percent. In that 20 years, 13,600 players have appeared in the league. Now, the chance of picking 13,600 men randomly from the whole population and none of those being gay is one chance in five times 10 to the power of 90. That's one in five with 90 noughts. To make a slightly more understandable number, I then looked at Premier League players, of which there have been 3,200 in the past 20 years. The chances of there being no gay footballer among those is 1 in 10 to the power of 21, which is 1 and 21 naughts. Now, to illustrate exactly how unlikely that is, if the entire earth's surface was covered with drawing pins edge to edge, the chance of you picking up one specific drawing pin at random would be 200 times higher than the chance of there being no gay player in the Premier League. Over the past 20 years, no doubt there have been many gay players in the Premier League, but perhaps not as many as disproportionately as in the country. Overall, we don't really know. Now, this situation is not confined to England. There is no apparent record anywhere in the world of a top class footballer who is openly gay. The nearest example would seem to be Anton Hussain, a part time player in the Swedish third division whose father Glenn once played for Liverpool. All in all, it's a rather sad commentary on prejudice in the sporting world.

[B]

Bill Edgar from the UK newspaper the Times.

[E]

I'm Helen Joyce, I'm the Economist's Brazil correspondent based in so Paulo and I moved here in July 2010. My number of 2012, the number that surprised me most during this year is the average age of retirement of a Brazilian working in the private sector. It's 53. Now, Brazilians don't die at 55 or 58 or 60. They live well into their 70s. So that means that now Brazilians live about 20 years their retirement on average. You can imagine how much their pension system cost. So the system I'm talking about, it's for private sector workers, but it's actually run by the government. You pay in, it's compulsory, it's pay as you go. So it's current pensioners who are living off your contributions. And the hope is that in the future you're going to live off other workers contributions. There's a similar system for public sector workers, but the point is these are all run by the government and backed by the government. I looked into the numbers. The only country, the only big country in the world that spends more on pensions than Brazil is Italy. And Italy is well known to be having a pensions crisis. So that has two big implications. One of them is current. It means that all other sorts of government spending are starved and it's children who lose out in Brazil. The second implication is for the future. Every year Brazil is spending more on pensions. And calculations suggest that if they were to keep the current System by about 2050, workers will be having to put nearly their entire salaries into pensions. Not their pensions, mind you. It's a pay as you go system. Other people's pensions workers will be working solely to support old people and keeping nothing for themselves. Now obviously that can't happen. Things that can't go on don't go on. So this is going to come to an end. But when? So Brazil has certainly got less than 10 years, I would say, to reform its system in a sensible manner, allowing people who are already in the system and keep the benefits that they have accrued already, do it gradually, bit by bit, raise the retirement age a year at a time, otherwise they're going to get to a stage of complete deadlock. Nothing will happen until it nearly collapses.

[B]

Helen Joyce

[F]

in my view, the most eye popping statistic in 2012 was the amount of money that the Americans spent on their election. They spent about $2.5 billion on the direct presidential campaign. But when you throw in all the money for the Senate races and the House of Representatives, you end up with about $6 billion worth of total spending on the campaigns. And that number is absolutely huge compared to other Western countries. I mean, if you work it out per person in America, it's about $18. If you compare it to the last general election in the UK was 50p per person and the last Canadian election was more like eight Canadian dollars a person. However, there's a rather interesting catch. If you look at the sheer size of the US economy and you look at the amount that's invested in elections, then actually the American number may not be so large after all. And my other eye popping statistic of the year was that the Americans actually spent $7 billion on potato chips this year and they spent about $8 billion on the Halloween celebrations. So there are some people who say, well, actually spending $6 billion on an election is not that bad, at least when you compare it to the other things that Americans could spend money on in a consumer culture.

[B]

Gillian Tett, Columnist and Assistant Editor of the Financial Times we'd love to hear your numbers of the year, so do please email them in and any numerical musings you may have over your cold turkey and mince. Our email address is more or lessbc.co.uk and if you want to find out more about the program, you can go to our website, bbcworldservice.com more or less until next week. Goodbye.

[A]

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