Football Ranking Mysteries Explained

Summary

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More or Less: Football Ranking Mysteries Explained

BBC Radio 4 | First broadcast: November 30, 2013
Hosts: Ruth Alexander, Ben Carter
Guest: Edouard Randuk (footballrankings.info)

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Overview:

This episode dives into the complexities—and controversies—surrounding the FIFA World Rankings that decide which national football teams are top seeds for the World Cup. Hosts Ruth Alexander and Ben Carter dissect how the ranking system works, why unexpected teams like Switzerland and Belgium ended up as top seeds, and how playing seemingly innocuous friendly matches can sabotage a country’s World Cup prospects. Special guest Edouard Randuk adds expert insight, revealing why the smartest teams may be avoiding certain matches.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Importance of Seeding (00:19 - 01:29)

• Seeding determines which teams are kept apart in the group stages of the World Cup, giving top teams an initial advantage.
• Ruth Alexander and Ben Carter question why established teams like Netherlands, Italy, and England missed out on top seed status, while countries like Switzerland made the cut.

2. How FIFA Rankings Work (01:55 - 03:33)

• Points System: Teams earn points for winning (3), drawing (1), but the key is the average points per match over the last four years, weighted towards recent games.
  • Ruth Alexander: “So this average thing is the key thing.” (03:00)
  • Ben Carter: “It’s absolutely key.” (03:02)
• Multipliers & Importance:
  • Beating high-ranked teams or teams from Europe/South America generates more points.
  • Qualifiers are worth more than friendlies.
  • Example: Dutch beat Brazil at the World Cup = 2,400 points; beating Indonesia in a friendly = ~140 points.

3. How Friendlies Can Hurt Rankings (03:34 - 05:21)

• Playing friendlies—especially against low-ranked teams—drags down a country's average, even if the match is won comfortably.
  • Ben Carter: “If they hadn't played that game against Indonesia, [the Netherlands] would have been one of the top seeds...” (04:15)
  • Same with Italy and their friendly against San Marino.
• Expert Edouard Randuk emphasizes:
  • “It’s usually a bad idea to play friendlies. That’s very simple to explain... the top 20 teams usually have average much higher than that. So playing friendly games will bring their average down and their ranking will drop.” (04:58)
• England, too, damaged their own seeding chances by playing unnecessary friendlies.

4. Ignoring the Warnings—An Expert’s Frustration (05:21 - 06:09)

• Randuk tried to warn the FA:
  • “I realized they are making a mistake... I wrote to the FA and I told him, look, you need to do something about it. Treat friendlies very, very seriously or consider breaching one of the rules. And obviously, I got no reply from the FA and the rest is history.” (05:46)

5. 'Breaching' Friendlies and Gaming the System (06:09 - 06:34)

• Making a friendly unofficial (by, for instance, using too many substitutes) means it doesn't count towards FIFA rankings—a tactic not always employed.
  • Ben Carter: “If the rules are broken, then the game doesn’t count as an official FIFA friendly, and only official FIFA friendlies count towards your average...” (06:15)

6. Continental Weighting – Built-in Inequality (06:34 - 07:51)

• Matches involving European or South American teams are weighted more, hurting teams from other continents.
  • Ben Carter: “Putting less value on teams from certain continents can seem unfair...”
  • Ruth Alexander: “If FIFA treated all continents equally, the Ivory Coast and the USA would be seeds for this World Cup.” (07:22)
• The justification: FIFA weights continents based on performances over the last three World Cups, supposedly reflecting global football strength.
  • “If you got rid of this continent weighting the United States, for example, would go from the world’s 13th best team to the world’s fourth best team, which even American fans would admit is a stretch.” (07:31)

7. Why Play Friendlies At All? (07:51 - 08:33)

• Despite the ranking risk, friendlies persist for commercial reasons (ticket sales, TV rights) and as opportunities to test lineups.

8. Consequences of Not Being a Top Seed (08:33 - 09:03)

• The difference can be stark: non-seeded teams may face stronger, more daunting opponents from the outset.
  • Ben Carter to The Netherlands: “If you’d done your sums and avoided that friendly with Indonesia, you could be looking forward to a much easier opening game…” (08:09)
• Since 1978, only Argentina in 1986 (with Maradona) won the World Cup without being a top seed.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the risks of friendlies:
  • "Crunching the FIFA points reveals a clear message for the world's top teams. According to Edouard Randuk ... for top 20 teams, it’s usually a bad idea to play friendlies.” — Ben Carter (04:45)
• A tongue-in-cheek solution:
  • “So the clever thing to do is not to play friendlies against lower ranking teams.” — Ben Carter (05:21)
• On missed warnings:
  • “And obviously I got no reply from the FA and the rest is history.” — Edouard Randuk (06:09)
• On the luck needed to win as a non-top seed:
  • “They just need the best player in the world and the hand of God.” — Ben Carter (09:03)

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Key Timestamps

• 00:19: Episode introduction—why seeding matters
• 01:55: Surprise top seeds (Switzerland, Belgium) and missing giants (Netherlands, Italy, England)
• 03:34: The impact of playing friendlies with low-ranked teams
• 04:58: Edouard Randuk on why top teams should avoid friendlies
• 05:46: Randuk’s letter to the FA
• 06:09: How to make a game unofficial to avoid ranking penalties
• 06:34: Continental weighting and its global impact
• 08:09: The importance of seeding for easier World Cup draws
• 09:03: Only one non-seed (Argentina 1986) has won since 1978

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Conclusion

The episode exposes how a flawed and complex ranking system, influenced by seemingly minor decisions like scheduling a friendly with a weak opponent, can dramatically alter the prospects of even the footballing elite. It also highlights how statistical quirks—and a lack of awareness or response from national associations—shape not just FIFA’s rankings, but also the fate of whole nations at the sport’s biggest tournament.

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Transcript

[Ruth Alexander]

This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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[Ruth Alexander]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander with Ben Carter. This week we'll be revealing how a friendly match could could lose your nation

[Ben Carter]

the World cup and what to do about it.

[Ruth Alexander]

From the sounds of it, France has already won the 2014 World Cup. But no, they're just really pleased to have qualified.

[Ben Carter]

And the next thing to find out is who will be playing who in the finals next year. On Friday 6th December, the eyes of billions of football fans around the world will be focused on one place, Costa do Suipi in Bahia, Brazil, where the World cup draw will take place.

[Ruth Alexander]

And eight teams already have a distinct advantage. They've been seeded, which means they'll be separated from one another in the early stages. They'll each be placed in a pool with three other teams.

[Ben Carter]

They've been seeded like this because of the world's highest ranking teams.

[Ruth Alexander]

If the top teams weren't separated like this in the first stage, there'd be a danger that they'd have to play each other too early on and top class sides would be knocked out of the competition almost immediately.

[Ben Carter]

And the longer you can avoid playing the best teams, the better chance you've got of progressing in the tournament.

[Ruth Alexander]

All very good.

[Ben Carter]

But.

[Ruth Alexander]

But. You're right, there's a but. This year there are some raised eyebrows.

[Ben Carter]

You can understand why strong teams like Spain, Germany, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay are seeds. They are very strong teams and always have been. Between them, they've won 13 of the 19 World Cups that have taken place.

[Ruth Alexander]

Colombia and Belgium, on the other hand, have been surprised. Top seeds. Looking at them though, they have got some amazing players at the moment. But Switzerland, they're not generally consistent. Considered to be one of the world's top teams.

[Ben Carter]

No. And countries who generally are considered to be up there, the Netherlands, Italy and even good old England haven't been seeded. So how have the sneaky Swiss been allowed to spoil it for the royalty of European football? Well, the first thing to say is the Swiss are a good team who've had a very good year. But to understand why the Netherlands and the Italians missed out, you need to understand the mysteries of the ranking system of FIFA, the International Football Association.

[Ruth Alexander]

And we've discovered it's a system so complicated, we actually think some countries might not understand it themselves because we see that they've been making some rather silly decisions.

[Ben Carter]

They have. FIFA rankings are based on how a team has performed in the last four years, with most of the emphasis on the most recent year. If a country wins or draws a game, it earns points towards its ranking. 3 points for a win, 1, 1 point for a draw. But different teams play different numbers of games, so the most important thing is it's all about your average. You take the number of points a team has earned and then you divide it by the number of games that they've played.

[Ruth Alexander]

So this average thing is the key thing.

[Ben Carter]

It's absolutely key.

[Ruth Alexander]

But then it gets a little bit more complicated because multipliers are applied to these straightforward points for winning and drawing, who you're playing matters. If you beat a high ranking team, you win more points than if your victory was over a weaker side. If you beat a European or a South American team, then that's worth more points than if you beat a team from Asia or Africa. And the relative importance of the match matters. You get more points for winning a qualifier than you do for winning a friendly.

[Ben Carter]

So it does get quite confusing. But let's look at an example. The Dutch victory over the world number one s Brazil in the quarterfinals of the last World cup earned them the maximum number of points possible, a total of 2,400 points. Now, as a comparison, say the Netherlands were to play one of the teams outside the FIFA top 150, like Indonesia, in a friendly match, they'd get a much lower number of points, only about 140.

[Ruth Alexander]

But of course, no one would play such a lowly team in a mere friendly. It would make no sense because it would bring your FIFA point average right down.

[Ben Carter]

But unfortunately for the orange hordes of Dutch fans, that's exactly what their team did earlier this year.

[Ruth Alexander]

Oh, dear.

[Ben Carter]

The amazing thing is that if they hadn't played that game against Indonesia, they would have been one of the top seeds for next year's World Cup. Of course, they won that game easily, but nonetheless, it brought their average down.

[Ruth Alexander]

Oops.

[Ben Carter]

And they're not the only ones to make this mistake. If Italy hadn't played a friendly against San Marino, a side which have only ever won one game in their history, Italy would have been a top seed at this World cup too, because they

[Ruth Alexander]

won that game and it brought their points average down.

[Ben Carter]

Absolutely.

[Ruth Alexander]

Oops.

[Ben Carter]

Crunching the FIFA points reveals a clear message for the world's top teams. According to Edouard Randuk, who runs the stats crunching website footballrankings.info for top 20 teams.

[Edouard Randuk]

It's usually a bad idea to play friendlies. That's very simple to explain. Just looking at European or South American teams, the maximum amount of points they can get from a friendly is 600, while the top 20 teams usually have average much higher than that. So playing friendly games will bring their average down and their ranking will drop.

[Ben Carter]

So the clever thing to do is not to play friendlies against lower ranking teams. But unfortunately, my beloved England have also been at it, choosing to play friendlies against Sweden, Scotland and Ireland. If they'd not played those games and everyone else, meanwhile, had continued to play these foolish friendlies, England would have qualified as top seed for this World Cup. And what hurts is it's not like they weren't warned.

[Edouard Randuk]

I realized they are making a mistake with regards to the seeding for the World cup. And I wrote to the FA and I told him, look, you need to do something about it. Treat friendlies very, very seriously or consider breaching one of the rules. And obviously I got no reply from the fa and the rest is history.

[Ruth Alexander]

So it's interesting that breaking the rules is a tactic Edouard would consider if he were the manager of a top team.

[Ben Carter]

It's not a bad idea. If the rules are broken, then the game doesn't count as an official FIFA friendly, and only official FIFA friendlies count towards your average. So you can make the game unofficial by, for example, making too many substitutes, and as a result, the winning team would not have their points average dragged down.

[Ruth Alexander]

Now, another statistical curiosity is how FIFA awards points according to which continent a team is from. FIFA value games between European and South American teams more highly than those between sides from other continents. Just three teams from outside Europe and South America are in the world's top 30. The USA, the States, United, the Ivory coast and Ghana.

[Ben Carter]

Putting less value on teams from certain continents can seem unfair. For example, if in next year's World Cup, England were to play Spain and beat them.

[Ruth Alexander]

Yeah, keep dreaming.

[Ben Carter]

I know it's a remote possibility, but if they did, they'd get 2,400 points. But if the Ivory coast had that victory against Spain instead, they'd win fewer points, about 2,250. And that's simply because they're from the African Confederation.

[Ruth Alexander]

And this treatment has a big impact. If FIFA treated all continents equally, the Ivory coast and the USA would be seeds for this World Cup.

[Ben Carter]

This may sound just wrong, but there is method to the madness. FIFA judge each continent depending on how their teams have performed in the last three World Cups. And if you got rid of this continent weighting the United States, for example, would go from the world's 13th best team to the world's fourth best team, which even American fans would admit is a stretch.

[Ruth Alexander]

But back to this question of friendlies. You might wonder why the world's top teams bother playing them at all, given how badly they can damage their world ranking. But of course, they make money from them through ticket sales and TV broadcast deals, and they give the manager the chance to try out new players, new formations.

[Ben Carter]

Let's hope they're listening to this, though, because they'd do well to give more consideration to the numbers the Netherlands if you're out there, I don't need to tell you that on Friday you have the unpalatable prospect of being drawn against Spain, Brazil or Germany. If you'd done your sums and avoided that friendly with Indonesia, you could be looking forward to a much easier opening game against the likes of Bosnia, Croatia or Russia.

[Ruth Alexander]

And I think that shows how important it is to not throw away the chance of being a top seed.

[Ben Carter]

Yes, and to underline the point, in the years since FIFA introduced top seeds in 1978, the there's only been one team who've managed to lift the trophy without being a top seed. That team was Argentina in 1986, and they had Diego Maradona. So the Netherlands, Italy and England shouldn't give up on the hope of World cup glory next year. They just need the best player in the world and the hand of God.

[Ruth Alexander]

If there are any numbers you'd like us to have a look at, do email us. Our address is more or [e-mail] and you can sign up for a free download of this program at our website, bbcworldservice.com more or less

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