Formula 1 racing risk

Summary

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More or Less: Formula 1 Racing Risk

BBC Radio 4 | Host: Tim Harford | Aired: September 23, 2013

Episode Overview

In this episode of "More or Less," Tim Harford and the team investigate the real dangers faced by Formula 1 drivers in the 1970s by examining dramatic claims about fatality risks popularized by the film Rush and by prominent drivers such as Niki Lauda and Sir Jackie Stewart. The episode features statistical analysis from experts, first-hand insights, and a nuanced discussion of how perceived risks compare to reality. The latter part of the episode briefly shifts focus to critically assess claims about plastic bag biodegradation.

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Key Discussion Points

1. The 20% Death Risk Claim in Formula 1

(00:49 - 02:35)

• The film Rush features a scene where Niki Lauda claims: “Every time I get in my car, there's 20% chance I could die.”
• Tim Harford and reporter Hannah Barnes express skepticism about this dramatic statistic.
• Roger Smith (F1 super fan and author):

  “Formula One is a dangerous sport, and certainly back in the 1970s, it was a far more dangerous sport in terms of fatalities than it is today. But the particular statement seems slightly over egged.” (01:58)

• Hannah reaches out to Niki Lauda's team, who clarify:

  "He says it was a rhetorical statement rather than a precise statistical calculation." (02:26)

Expert Analysis

• Kevin McConway, Professor of Applied Statistics, calculates:
  • Each Grand Prix in the 1966-1976 era: ~0.33% chance of death (including practice and qualifying)
  • Across a single season: 4.4% chance of death
  • Over five years (racing every race): chance of death approaches 20%
  • For context, the risk per race is similar to 1.5 million miles by car or 500 skydives.
• Tim Harford:

  "If you raced 10 times a year, very few drivers would make it through a season." (02:12)

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2. Sir Jackie Stewart’s Even Grimmer Statistic

(03:34 - 05:25)

• Stewart is known for stating that during the six peak years of his career, “anyone continuously racing had a two out of three chance of dying.” Sometimes, he (erroneously) claims “two-thirds per race.”
• Kevin McConway: The more reasonable version of Stewart’s claim is only “fractionally higher” than Lauda’s era — the chance of death over six years was indeed extremely high.
• Roger Smith points out the risk extended beyond just Formula 1, as drivers participated in multiple racing formats.

Memorable Quote – Contextualizing the Risk

• Hannah Barnes:

  “There was a particularly awful period in 1968, for example, where four drivers died in the space of just three months, three of those in non-Formula One cars.” (05:00)

• McConway’s estimate: For a top-level driver over six years in that era (including all forms of motorsport), there was about a 50/50 chance of dying.
• Tim Harford:

  "So I thought we were thoroughly going to debunk this statistic, but actually being a professional racing driver of 40 years ago really was unbelievably dangerous." (05:43)

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3. The Shift in Formula 1 Safety

(05:52)

• Since Ayrton Senna’s death in 1994, no Formula 1 driver fatalities have occurred (though there have been some race marshal deaths).

Closing Reflection

• Hannah Barnes:

  "And thankfully that period is behind us." (05:52)

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4. Short Segment: The Truth About Plastic Bag Degradation

(06:15 - 09:20)
(Briefly covered in this episode)

• Recent political claims that plastic bags "take a thousand years to degrade" prompt an investigation:
  • Ming Tian (Penn State Biochemistry):

    "I would never make a statement like that because you could never prove it. Like, who's gonna do an experiment for a thousand years?" (07:37)

    • The longevity of a plastic bag depends on environment (sunlight, water, oxygen).
• The UK government’s cited research paper does not support the "thousand years" claim.
• Dr. Hayden Webb (Swinburne University):
  • No fixed definition of "degrade"; plastic bag polymer is different from bottle plastic; no evidence for "a thousand years".

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Niki Lauda quote from film Rush:

  “Every time I get in my car, there's 20% chance I could die.” (01:23)

• Roger Smith:

  “The particular statement seems slightly over egged.” (01:58)

• Hannah Barnes contacts Niki Lauda's team:

  “He says it was a rhetorical statement rather than a precise statistical calculation.” (02:26)

• Hannah Barnes:

  “If a driver raced for five years in every race, his chance of death did indeed approach 20%.” (02:35)

• Kevin McConway’s risk context:

  “Each race, the risk of dying was equivalent to travelling one and a half million miles by car, or 500 skydives.” (03:30)

• Tim Harford (on 1970s F1):

  "...being a professional racing driver of 40 years ago really was unbelievably dangerous." (05:43)

• Ming Tian:

  “You make a statement like that also, nobody can prove you wrong... My point is it all comes down to the environment they end up in.” (07:47)

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Segment Timestamps

• 00:49 – Rush movie and death risk claim introduction.
• 01:23 – Niki Lauda's 20% death quote.
• 02:20 – Niki Lauda’s team clarifies the claim as rhetorical.
• 02:35 – Kevin McConway’s real risk calculations.
• 03:34 – Sir Jackie Stewart's risk claim and context.
• 05:43 – Reflection on how dangerous 1970s F1 really was.
• 06:15 – Start of plastic bag degradation segment.
• 07:37 – Ming Tian debunks "a thousand years" claim.
• 08:10 – Official clarification that the source doesn’t support the statistic.

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Summary Flow & Tone

In line with the program's skeptical, fact-based style, the episode employs expert opinions and gently humorous asides to clarify and debunk exaggerations of risk, with special attention to statistical methods and real historical context. The hosts maintain a friendly, engaging tone throughout, balancing seriousness about past dangers with a wry skepticism toward unsubstantiated statistics.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

If you want to understand how dangerous Formula 1 racing used to be—and why some legendary drivers made the claims they did—this episode offers a concise, well-evidenced answer. It separates rhetorical flourish from statistical fact, demonstrates the value of historical perspective, and reminds us to question numbers that sound too dramatic to be true—even (or especially) when they come from the stars themselves.

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Transcript

[BBC Announcer]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldserveys.com podcasts

[Hannah Barnes]

this is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[Tim Harford]

Hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service, the programme which makes sense of numbers in the news and in life. Hi, I'm Tim Harford. This week we look at some questionable claims about plastic bags.

[Plastic Bag User / General Public]

We all use plastic bags. I do. Everyone does. I think everybody feels that maybe we use too many plastic bags. You might use them for 20 minutes walking back from the shops, but they take a thousand years to degrade.

[Tim Harford]

But first, More Or Less, team member Hannah Barnes has been on a trip to the cinema.

[Hannah Barnes]

Yes, Tim, I finally took on board everything that you've been saying about work, life, balance. I fancied seeing that new high octane film, Rush, featuring the incredibly handsome, I mean talented Chris Hemsworth as British Formula One driver James Hunt, and Daniel Bruhl as his Austrian rival, Niki Lauda. It's set during the 1976 season and features plenty of this, But also some questionable statistical claims.

[Tim Harford]

Each year, two of us die. I accept every time I get in my car, there's 20% chance I could die.

[Hannah Barnes]

Daniel Bruhl playing Formula One great Niki Lauda there. And Niki Lauda was, of course, horribly injured at the Nurburgring in 1976. So the sport was dangerous. Still a 20% chance of death every time you get into a car. That really bothered me. So much so that I went to the experts first. Formula one super fan and author of all the races and analysing Formula One, Roger Smith.

[Roger Smith]

Formula One is a dangerous sport, and certainly back in the 1970s, it was a far more dangerous sport in terms of fatalities than it is today. But the particular statement seems slightly over egged.

[Tim Harford]

Over egged indeed. If you raced 10 times a year, very few drivers would make it through a season.

[Hannah Barnes]

Yeah, and I even managed to reach Niki Lauda himself.

[Tim Harford]

Wait, wait, you spoke to Niki Lauda?

[Hannah Barnes]

Well, I got a message to his team, yeah. And they replied. He says it was a rhetorical statement rather than a precise statistical calculation.

[Tim Harford]

Niki Lauda can be as rhetorical as he likes. In my book, he's thinking louder.

[Hannah Barnes]

Yeah, I know, Tim, but I still wanted to know what the actual numbers were. And I came straight out of the cinema and got onto our good friend at the UK's Open University, professor of Applied Statistics, Kevin McConaughey, and the results of his work are quite shocking. If we take the decade leading up to the year the film is set in 1976, drivers had a third of a percent chance of dying each time they competed in a Grand Prix, which includes any practice and qualifying sessions. Now, that's a lot less than 20% any time you get into a car. But across a Formula One season, the chance of death rises to 4.4%. And if a driver raced for five years in every race, his chance of death did indeed approach 20%. To put that into context, each race, the risk of dying was equivalent to travelling one and a half million miles by car, or 500 skydives.

[Tim Harford]

And we should say that Kevin McConaughey's had to make some assumptions to produce these figures. But he's Kevin McConaughey. If Niki Lauda can be rhetorical, Kevin McConaughey can make some assumptions. I've heard another statistic that's even more shocking than the 20% chance of dying per race. It was said by Sir Jackie Stewart, the British racing driver. He said he'd calculated that during the six years that represented the peak of his career, in the late 1960s and early 70s, anyone continuously racing had a two out of three chance of dying.

[Hannah Barnes]

Yeah, he did say that. Or variations on that theme, some of which are extremely implausible. For instance, that the chance of dying was 2/3 per race. I asked Kevin McConaughey about the more sensible claim, and although Sir Jackie was racing slightly earlier than Nicky Lauda, the chances of death were very similar, just fractionally higher.

[Tim Harford]

So both of these claims about risk were wrong. But Formula One author Roger Smith says that Lauda and Stewart may have been thinking more broadly when they talk about Formula One drivers dying.

[Roger Smith]

There is a bit of a grey area as to the fact that there was a high incidence in motorsport in general. Some of those Formula One drivers who can be listed as the death of a Grand Prix driver actually were driving other forms of motorsport. Professional drivers in those days had to have activity in a wider range of motorsport than they do today.

[Hannah Barnes]

Now, I think it's probably fair to say that Sir Jackie Stewart was badly affected by the death of so many of his friends. There was a particularly awful period in 1968, for example, where four drivers died in the space of just three months, three of those in non Formula One cars. That included Stewart's great friend Jim Clark, who died in a formula. Now, the statistical wizard Kevin McConaughey also tried to calculate these odds, though we couldn't give him A complete set of data. But he reckons that if you were a Formula One driver competing for six years at the height of the Jackie Stewart era, you had a 50, 50 chance of dying, not necessarily in a Formula One car. So Jackie wasn't far off.

[Tim Harford]

Wow. So I thought we were thoroughly going to debunk this statistic, but actually being a professional racing driver of 40 years ago really was unbelievably dangerous.

[Hannah Barnes]

It was. And thankfully that period is behind us. And there hasn't been a death of a Formula One driver since Ayrton Senna in 1994. Although some race marshals have been killed.

[Roger Smith]

Well, thank you, Hannah.

[Tim Harford]

And now here's a little test for you. What's the name of the Oscar winning movie from 1999 in which this soundtrack was used? Listen for a little longer. Yes, it was American Beauty. And can you remember what appears on the screen while this music is playing? It's a plastic bag. The character Ricky Fitz found it beautiful. Not everyone is quite so entranced.

[Plastic Bag User / General Public]

We all use plastic bags. I do. Everyone does. I think everybody feels that maybe we use too many plastic bags.

[Tim Harford]

Earlier this week, the British Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg announced plans to introduce a small charge for plastic bags in England to discourage their use.

[Plastic Bag User / General Public]

You might use them for 20 minutes walking back from the shops, but they take a thousand years to degrade.

[Tim Harford]

A thousand years is a long time. Loyal listener Tom Caldwell was suspicious. From where did this figure of a thousand years come? Has anyone seen a thousand year old plastic bag? We've turned to professor of biochemistry and molecular biology Ming Tian at Pennsylvania State University in the United States. As an expert on biodegradation, we hoped he'd be able to point us to the source of this claim. But no, I would never make a

[Ming Tian]

statement like that because you could never prove it. Like, who's gonna do an experiment for a thousand years?

[Tim Harford]

Yeah, we haven't had plastic bags for a thousand years, I suppose. And we certainly haven't been experimenting on them.

[Ming Tian]

Right. But the flip side of the coin is you make a statement like that also, nobody can prove you wrong. I don't want to say it's meaningless because I think behind all this is our concern about the environment. My point is it all comes down to the environment they end up in. If there's no sunlight, there's no oxygen, there's no water. Things last for a long time. They found hot dogs in landfills that are over 25 years old.

[Tim Harford]

Ming Tian of Penn State University. We asked the British government to provide us with a source for this figure of a thousand years, and they pointed us to a research paper. But when we looked at it, we found no mention of the figure. So we tracked down one of the authors of the paper, Dr. Hayden Webb from Swinburne University of Technology in the UK, who pointed out, first, that there's no fixed definition of what it means for plastic to degrade. Second, that different environments will have different effects on plastics. And third, that, well, the study wasn't looking at the plastic that goes into bags, it was looking at the stuff that makes soft drink bottles, which is a totally different compound. So zero support for Mr. Clegg's thousand year plastic bag. Although Dr. Webb did think that discouraging the use of plastic bags was. Was probably a good idea. And that's it for this week. If there are any numbers you'd like us to take a closer look at, do email us. Our address is more or lessbc.co.uk. and you can also sign up for a free download of our programmes at our website, bbcworldservice.com moreorless there are dozens

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