More or Less: Behind the Stats

Episode: Has Donald Trump Ended Seven 'Unendable' Wars?

Date: October 1, 2025
Host: Tim Harford, BBC Radio 4

Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less dives into a bold claim made by President Donald Trump in his second term: that he ended seven so-called "unendable" wars in seven months. Tim Harford and the team scrutinize this assertion, breaking down each alleged war, fact-checking Trump's involvement, and examining the broader truth behind diplomatic successes and statistical storytelling. The show also investigates claims about the UK’s economic growth, a supposed “global cancer explosion,” and the latest shuffle in UK university rankings.

1. Has Donald Trump Ended Seven ‘Unendable’ Wars?

Main Premise

• President Donald Trump claims credit for ending seven long-running international conflicts in just seven months.
• Tim Harford asks: How much truth is behind these boasts?

Detailed Breakdown

How is a War Defined?

• Prof. Stefan Wolf (Univ. of Birmingham) sets the bar:

  "A war would be defined as a major military clash between the organized military forces of two countries lasting at least several days, causing significant military, but potentially also civilian casualties. One knows it's a war when one sees it." (03:36)

President Trump’s List of Seven

1. Cambodia and Thailand

• Long-standing border dispute, recently reignited.
• Trump’s Claim: Imposed tariff threats leading to ceasefire.
• Reality Check:
  • US and Chinese facilitation were factors, but Malaysia mediated.
  • Ceasefire already broken; fresh clashes have occurred. No lasting peace.

  "They are now literally firing guns at each other." – Tim Harford (05:10)

2. Pakistan and India

• Claimed US mediation, but evidence is unclear.
• Pakistan credits Trump; India directly rejects US role.
• Multinational mediation involved; not settled.

  "It's definitely not a finished chapter." – Prof. Wolf (06:25)

3. Kosovo and Serbia

• Trump’s involvement is “baffling” to experts.
• No evidence of substantial US mediation under Trump’s second term.

  "There's very little evidence that there has been any major involvement of the US in the region since Trump came back to the White House." – Prof. Wolf (06:32)

4. Egypt and Ethiopia (Nile Dam Dispute)

• Not a war.

• "Nope. At least not yet." – Prof. Wolf (06:51)

5. "Aberbaijan and Albania"

• Geographical error or misspeaking by Trump. No conflict exists between these countries.

6. Armenia and Azerbaijan

• Real conflict: Recent hostilities over territorial claims.
• Trump advocated "Trump International Transport Corridor for Prosperity" economic provisions.
• If peace occurs, partial credit is reasonable, but process predates Trump.

  "[...] if they formally sign a peace agreement, I think Trump probably deserves some credit for having sort of pushed it across the finishing line." – Prof. Wolf (09:01)

7. Congo and Rwanda

• Long conflict; groups like M23 complicate matters.
• A Washington-negotiated agreement promised further talks, but no durable settlement.
• Tensions and preparations for further conflict persist.

  "There has been no news of a permanent deal being anywhere near conclusion." – Prof. Wolf (09:46)

8. Israel and Iran (extra, for context)

• Brief de-escalation after severe violence, involving US military.
• Situation currently calm, not a robust peace.

  "For now it's resolved." – Prof. Wolf (10:19)
  "The conflict has been de-escalated with a lot of bombing, which doesn't usually win you a peace prize unless your name happens to be Henry Kissinger." – Tim Harford (10:21)

Conclusion:

• Most of Trump’s claims are exaggerated. In several cases, there was either only a temporary ceasefire, little to no US role, or the conflict wasn’t truly ended.

  "He has made efforts to avert a number of crises that could potentially have further escalated. But to say that he has ended seven unendable wars flies in the face of the facts[...] ceasefire agreements are not the same as peace agreements, let alone permanent durable peace." – Prof. Wolf (11:04)

2. UK Economic Growth: Fastest in the G7?

Claim

• Chancellor Rachel Reeves: The UK had the fastest G7 growth in the first half of the year.

Analysis (12:44–16:31)

• Duncan Weldon (Economist):

  • Technically true according to recent OECD data, but not particularly meaningful given the chosen time frame (just six months).
  • Trump’s tariffs created fluctuations; numbers are still being revised.

  "I mean, the UK grew the fastest of any of that group of G7 big rich industrialised economies in the first six months of this year. It might be true, but I'm not sure it's particularly meaningful or helpful for the public debate." – Weldon (12:44)

• A more informative comparison is year-on-year, not half-year slices.

  • On this basis, UK is joint 3rd of 7.

  "In 2024 on the OECD numbers, the UK grew 1.1%. Right up there at the top is the United States with 2.8." – Weldon (15:17)

  • UK growth is subpar compared with historical performance.

  "If you go back 25 years, we'd be hoping the British economy would be growing more like two and a half, 3%. So it's poor relative to our, you know, medium term history but it's about normal for the last decade." – Weldon (16:05)

3. Global Cancer Explosion: Is Risk Really Rising?

Headline (16:42)

• Daily Mail: “Global Cancer Explosion. Deaths are set to soar 75% by 2050.”

Reality (with Dr. Lisa Force, 17:33–20:52)

• Absolute cancer cases and deaths are rising—due to population growth and aging.

• Risk for an individual (age-standardised mortality rate) is falling:

  "We also found that age standardized mortality rates for cancer declined by about 24% globally from 1990 through 2023." – Dr. Lisa Force (18:38)

  • “Explosion” refers to total cases, not individual risk.

• Ongoing challenge: Projections suggest the decline in risk may plateau, but the bigger issue is healthcare system preparedness.

  "[...] the growing cancer cases and deaths over the last several decades and into the future are related to population aging and growth. It is quite important for health service planning and ensuring that health systems are prepared." – Dr. Lisa Force (20:30)

4. UK University Rankings

Recent News

• Headlines declared: “Oxford and Cambridge pushed out of top three UK universities for first time.” (22:35)
• In reality, this is true only for the Times and Sunday Times ranking; other league tables still rate them highly.

Why the Change? (23:43–29:10)

Guest: David Kernahan, Deputy Editor at Wonki

• Different rankings use different weightings and metrics.

• The Times heavily weights feedback from the National Student Survey (NSS) – about 1/3 of the final mark – which penalised Oxbridge due to low student union satisfaction.

• Other rankings (Guardian, Complete University Guide): Less weight on NSS, so Oxbridge fares better.

  "It is all determined by the numbers and the way they are weighted. So one of the issues that Cambridge and Oxford have historically had is their national students survey results. They tend not to do especially well on these." – Kernahan (24:18) “It is just people deciding what they particularly value in a university and then running the numbers. There’s never any particular attempt… to ensure that a particular kind of university ranks highly or...not so well.” (28:41)

Should Rankings Be Trusted?

• Data is largely robust and comes from official sources.
• Rankings reflect value judgements about what makes a “good” university, not necessarily an objective truth.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “If Trump truly has ended seven unendable wars, cast the ring back into the fire and diminished into the west, then he really would deserve that prize. But is this a classic case of some trumped up claims?” – Tim Harford (03:09)
• "One person's explosion is another person's steady increase." – Interviewer/Presenter (18:02)
• "We also found that age standardized mortality rates for cancer declined by about 24% globally from 1990 through 2023." – Dr. Lisa Force (18:38)
• “70% [NSS response rate] is an extraordinarily good response rate.” – Tim Harford (27:46)
• “These sorts of comparisons are always a bit of a choose your own adventure. And obviously the Chancellor has chosen the adventure where the United Kingdom looks the best.” – Duncan Weldon (14:50)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 01:08 — Episode begins/main topics introduction
• 02:26–11:32 — Donald Trump's “Seven Unendable Wars” claim examined
• 11:53–16:31 — UK as "fastest G7 economy" claim examined
• 16:42–20:52 — The reality of rising global cancer deaths
• 21:58–29:10 — Oxford & Cambridge fall in university rankings: why it happened (and whether it matters)

Summary:
This episode peels back the layers of headline-grabbing claims in diplomacy, economics, health, and education, drawing out the statistical truths behind the spin. Trump’s supposed peace-making is found wanting, economic growth numbers are debunked as cherry-picked, cancer “explosions” are contextualized, and university rankings shown to be relative, not absolute. As ever, More or Less equips listeners with the critical thinking tools to judge bold claims for themselves.