Has Islamic State been Losing Territory?

Summary

More or Less - "Has Islamic State been Losing Territory?"

BBC Radio 4, November 20, 2015
Host: Ruth Alexander
Main Theme:
This episode investigates claims about how much territory so-called Islamic State (IS/ISIS/ISIL) has lost, especially in the aftermath of recent terrorist attacks and media statements from political leaders.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Media and Political Claims about IS Territory Loss ([00:19]–[01:28])

• After the Paris terrorist attacks (13 November 2015), there was heightened scrutiny of IS's status.
• UK Prime Minister David Cameron asserted on BBC Radio that ISIL had "lost about 25 to 30% of the territory that they held."
• Quote – David Cameron via BBC Presenter ([01:19]):

  "We are using our military hard power in Iraq directly combating ISIL and they've lost about 25 to 30% of the territory that they held."

2. Questioning the Official Figures ([01:28]–[02:19])

• BBC Security Correspondent Frank Gardner expressed skepticism about the official narrative.
• Quote – Frank Gardner ([01:33]):

  "The idea that they've lost 25% of their territory, as David Cameron suggested...is, I think, misleading."

• The PM’s office traced the figures to a U.S. Army briefing (Col. Steve Warren, April), stating 25–30% of Iraqi land held by IS was reclaimed.

3. Expert Critique: The Real Picture on the Ground ([02:19]–[02:57])

• Professor Paul Rogers (Oxford Research Group) discussed the situation:
  • IS has been pushed back in some parts of Iraq, notably in the northeast (Kurdish advances, Tikrit, Baji).
  • Major cities (Fallujah, Ramadi, Mosul) remain under siege or IS control.
  • IS territory has actually increased in Syria.
  • The 25–30% figure applies only to "depopulated areas", not key population centers.
• Quote – Paul Rogers ([02:19]):

  "...25 to 30% reversal, but only by looking at really frankly depopulated areas, not the key areas of Population."

4. Estimating True Progress: A Smaller Figure? ([02:57]–[03:11])

• UK Foreign Affairs Select Committee cited experts who believe only 10–15% of Iraqi land had been retaken.
• The meaningfulness of using territory numbers as a progress metric is questioned.

5. Beyond Territory: IS Capabilities & Strategy ([03:11]–[03:48])

• Paul Rogers argues that territory is not a good measure of IS’s status.
  • The group’s capability and tactics matter more—specifically its shift to external attacks (Paris, Russian jet bombing, Beirut attack).
  • IS is reverting to Al Qaeda-style international terrorism.
• Quote – Paul Rogers ([03:11]):

  "I would not actually say that territory is a good measure of success. You want to look at the actual capability of the group. The worrying thing about ISIS is that it is now back to using a tactic that Al Qaeda groups used 10 years ago. It is beginning to stage attacks overseas..."

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Frank Gardner on IS leadership attrition ([01:33]):

  "...they are losing, according to the Americans, a mid or high-level leader practically every day in these airstrikes. But they're able to replenish them."

• Paul Rogers on shifting IS strategy ([03:11]):

  "Now it is actually moving overseas. We've seen it with the terrible attack in Paris, but also with the bombing of the Russian jet and the attack in Beirut."

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:19]–[01:28] – Introducing IS territorial loss claims, David Cameron’s statement
• [01:28]–[02:19] – BBC security correspondent questions statistics; U.S. Army source cited
• [02:19]–[02:57] – Professor Paul Rogers critiques territory loss claims, context of Iraqi and Syrian control
• [02:57]–[03:11] – UK parliamentary committee’s lower estimate of territory retaken
• [03:11]–[03:48] – Rogers: Why focusing on territory misses IS’s evolving tactics

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Tone & Language

The conversation is analytical and skeptical, with a clear emphasis on scrutinizing how numbers and metrics (in this case, IS territory lost) are presented by politicians and in the media. The experts speak in measured, evidence-based terms, frequently referencing on-the-ground realities versus official narratives.

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Summary Takeaways

• Official claims (25–30% territory loss by IS) are likely exaggerated or misleading, focusing on sparsely populated regions rather than important towns or cities.
• Actual progress against IS in Iraq may be closer to 10–15% of territory reclaimed, with further complications since IS has expanded in Syria.
• Experts caution that territory alone is a poor measure of success; IS’s move to international attacks signals a dangerous shift in strategy and capability.
• Numbers in public debate often obscure a more complex reality—a theme central to More or Less.

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This episode provides an insightful exploration into the reliability—or lack thereof—of high-profile territorial loss statistics and highlights the need for deeper, more nuanced metrics when assessing conflicts like the fight against IS.

Transcript

[Ruth Alexander]

This is the short edition of More or Less first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[BBC Narrator/Presenter]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[Ruth Alexander]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander. Later in the program we'll be revealing who is the fastest man in the world. You, Usain Bolt. Or Arsenal's Spanish defender Hector Bellerin. But first, the recent terrorist attacks in Africa, the Middle east and Europe have focused attention on so called Islamic State

[Expert/Analyst (e.g., Paul Rogers)]

warplanes taking off last night to bomb

[BBC Narrator/Presenter]

targets in Raqqa, headquarters of so called Islamic State.

[Ruth Alexander]

After the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris on 13 November in which 129 people died. Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron spoke to BBC radio about how successful airstrikes had been in damaging Islamic State, also known as IS or isil.

[BBC Narrator/Presenter]

Well, of course we are using our military hard power in Iraq directly combating ISIL and they've lost about 25 to 30% of the territory that they held.

[Ruth Alexander]

But the BBC's security correspondent Frank Gardner is sceptical about those statistics.

[BBC Narrator/Presenter]

There's no question that the airstrikes are hurting them. They are losing, according to the Americans, a mid or high level leader practically every day in these airstrikes. But they're able to replenish them. Then they haven't gone away. The idea that they've lost 25% of their territory, as David Cameron suggested on this program about an hour ago, is I think, misleading.

[Ruth Alexander]

We asked the Prime Minister's office where the numbers had come from and they pointed us to a briefing given by the United States Army, Colonel Steve Warren back in April. He says that between 25 and 30% of Iraqi land taken by IS had been reclaimed by coalition troops. So is this true? Professor Paul Rogers, the global security consultant for the Oxford Research Group, has some doubts.

[Expert/Analyst (e.g., Paul Rogers)]

It is true that ISIS has been held back from further advances in Iraq and it has suffered some reversals up in the northeast where the Kurta made progress, and around the town of Tikrit and also Baji, which are north of Baghdad, but in the major towns, Fallujah, Ramadi, where there's been a long siege in Mosul, basically it's proved extremely difficult to face down isis and the evidence is that it's actually increased its territory in Syria. So I think you could say 25 to 30% reversal, but only by looking at really frankly depopulated areas, not the key areas of Population.

[Ruth Alexander]

Indeed. A report to the Foreign Affairs select committee in the UK parliament said some experts believed only 10 to 15% of the land taken in Iraq had been won back. So how can progress be judged in the coalition's war against is?

[Expert/Analyst (e.g., Paul Rogers)]

I would not actually say that territory is a good measure of success. You want to look at the actual capability of the group. The worrying thing about ISIS is that it is now back to using a tactic that Al Qaeda groups used 10 years ago. It is beginning to stage attacks overseas, whereas until recently it was concentrating almost entirely on developing its own geographical territory, its own caliphate. Now it is actually moving overseas. We've seen it with the terrible attack in Paris, but also with the bombing of the Russian jet and the attack in Beirut which killed many people.

[Ruth Alexander]

You're listening to more or less on the BBC World Service with me, Ruth Alexander. You'd be forgiven for thinking it was all settled. The world's fastest man is Usain Bolt, the holder of the 100 and 200 metre world records. But there's a new rival. According to Britain's newspapers, Hector Bellerin is

[BBC Narrator/Presenter]

faster than sprint king Usain Bolt, the

[Ruth Alexander]

Arsenal player officially faster than Usain Bolt. Even the BBC has jumped on the bandwagon in this interview with Arsenal's Spanish defender, Hector Bellerin.

[BBC Narrator/Presenter]

4.41 seconds, which is your Arsenal record for 40 metres, is actually quicker than Usain Bolt's first 40 meters when he ran the 100 metres world record. Would you fancy a little head to head with the big guy?

[Craig Pickering]

Well, obviously I would fancy him.

[Ruth Alexander]

The time they're talking about, 4.41 seconds is the time the Spaniard achieved over 40 metres in a training session for Arsenal, a club record no less and faster than the first 40 metres of Usain Bolt's world record breaking 100 metres. In 2009, he covered the distance in 4.64 seconds. So is it possible that the fastest man ever over 100 metres could be beaten to 40 meters by a footballer?

[Craig Pickering]

No. Well, it seems illogical that a footballer would be faster than a sprinter.

[Ruth Alexander]

Former Great Britain sprinter turned sports scientist Craig Pickering.

[Craig Pickering]

It seems logical that they've used two timing gates to cover the 40 meter distance. So this is like two laser gates, one at zero meters, one at 40 meters. What we don't know is what Bellerin is doing directly before this timing gate. So we know in a 100 metre race, the gun starts the race, the clock starts, the athletes have to react to that gun. It takes about 0.15 of a second. The athletes then have to accelerate from zero velocity to their maximum velocity, and we know that their first step takes about half a second. So if Bellerin has already hitting this timing gate up quicker than zero, which he will be, then he already has a massive advantage. Although he's covering the 40 metre distance in a comparably quite quick time, it's not the same as looking at Usain Bolt's first 40 metres.

[Ruth Alexander]

We don't know exactly how Hector Bellerin was timed or the conditions he ran in, but fellow Arsenal player Theo Walcott commented earlier in the year that they run through the timing gates, so it's unlikely Bellerin did everything the same way Usain Bolt did it. If you're a fan of athletics, you may have heard the claim that the weakest part of Usain Bolt's race is his start. So maybe this explains why Bellerin's time was quicker over 40 meters.

[Craig Pickering]

So bolt gives you the impression that he's not a particularly quick starter. He's not amazing at 10 metres relative to the best sprinters in the world, but he's still better than 99.9% of the world's population have ever been to 10 metres. He's still a very good athlete and indeed, when he broke the world record in 100 metres, I believe his 60 metre split was, if not the fastest, at least in the top two fastest 60 meter times ever. So he's still a very, very good starter.

[Ruth Alexander]

So would Craig Pickering, who retired from sprinting with a personal best over 100 metres of 10.14 seconds, fancy his chances in a race against Hector Bellerin?

[Craig Pickering]

Very confident I'd beat Bellerin in a race. Yeah. At my best and possibly even now without a year's training.

[Ruth Alexander]

Well, while we don't have any film of Bellerin's astonishing 40 metre run, we do have plenty of statistics from his performance in Premier League matches.

[BBC Narrator/Presenter]

We have tracking systems installed in every single Premier League ground, which comprises of six high definition cameras. So every second that goes by, every single player on that field has been sampled 25 times. And that gives a range of outputs, the location of the player, the speed of the player, and the statistics that can be derived from an optical tracking system are very, very rich.

[Ruth Alexander]

This is David Eccles from Kyronhago, a company which provides detailed statistics on football players. So is Bellerin quicker than Bol?

[BBC Narrator/Presenter]

No, I don't think he is. I mean, when I first read the story, I was quite surprised. I mean, I know when Usain Bolt brought the world record, he hit a top speed of 44.72 kilometers per hour. We've been collecting data on football players in the Premier League for the last three years and I've never seen a player go go above sort of 36 kilometers per hour as a top level speed. So I mean I would say it's very, very unlikely that a Premier League players ever got near to the sort of top speeds of a Usain Bolt.

[Ruth Alexander]

Not being as quick as the fastest man ever is no disgrace, but Hector Bellerin isn't even the fastest player in the Premier League this season. He's 18th on the Cairo Hago stats for peak speeds. You're probably wondering who's number one.

[BBC Narrator/Presenter]

Jamie Vardy, one of the Leicester players, was clocked at 35.44 km which was one of the top speeds. I mean, I think everyone's perception is the FIO Walcott is probably the fastest in the Premier League.

[Ruth Alexander]

That's all we've got time for this week, but if you have any numbers you'd like us to look at, please do email us. Our address is moreorlessbc.co.uk and our website is BBC.com more or less.

[BBC Narrator/Presenter]

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