Have more than 100 private schools been forced to close because of VAT?

Summary

More or Less (BBC Radio 4) — Episode Summary

Episode Title: Have more than 100 private schools been forced to close because of VAT?
Air Date: January 14, 2026
Host: Tim Harford

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Episode Overview

This week, Tim Harford and the More or Less team tackle several claims circulating in UK public debate, examining the numbers behind each and offering evidence-based critiques. The main questions covered include:

• Has the introduction of VAT on private school fees actually caused a sharp rise in private school closures?
• Did a week’s delay in the UK’s first COVID-19 lockdown truly lead to 23,000 extra deaths?
• Is Christian worship seeing a “quiet revival” in the UK?
• Do over 10 million families regard X (formerly Twitter) as their main news source?

As always, the show leans on statistical sleuthing, expert interviews, and classic More or Less wit to separate fact from fiction.

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Segment 1: VAT and Private School Closures

Timestamps: 02:11–08:34
Key Speakers: Tim Harford (Host), Tom Coles (Correspondent)

The Claim

Recent headlines assert that more than 100 private schools have been forced to close as a direct result of Labour’s introduction of VAT on school fees.

Reality Check

• Source of the Stat: The number (105 closures) comes from the Independent Schools Council (ISC) and is cross-checked against the Department for Education database.
• Truth About Closures:
  • In the 18 months since Labour’s VAT policy, 104 independent schools have closed in England and Wales (plus 3 in Scotland, offset by 3 new openings).
  • In the final 18 months of Conservative government before the Labour VAT policy, 108 schools closed.

    “Wait, so imposing VAT has meant the rate of school closures has actually fallen?” — Tim Harford (04:01)

  • 165 new private schools opened since the VAT change, so the overall number of private schools increased.

The Nuance

• Special Schools: 18 closures were of independent special schools mainly serving disabled/SEND children, who are typically funded by local authorities (and thus exempt from VAT).
  Many new private schools opening are also special schools, so the total in this sector is increasing.
• Tiny Schools: Several closed schools had minuscule enrolment—some had only one or two pupils remaining.
• Demographic Changes: Primary-age enrolment is naturally down due to falling birth rates, impacting prep/primary school viability far more than VAT.
• Causal Factors: Some closures cited VAT as a problem, but other major issues were at play—rising costs, minimum wage hikes, removal of charitable business rates, aging infrastructure, general financial precarity, and long-term financial issues since COVID.
• Summary: Attributing all closures to VAT is “silly,” as the host puts it (04:19), and oversimplifies a complex picture.

Notable Quote

“VAT or no VAT, it is hard to run a school when there are fewer school-aged children.”
— Tim Harford (06:04)

Notable Moment

• The segment debunks a scary VAT-related stat and uses it as a case study in how stats get misused in debate—and how the reality is more complex.

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Segment 2: Did a Delayed Lockdown Cause 23,000 COVID Deaths?

Timestamps: 08:34–16:15
Key Speakers: Tim Harford, Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter

The Claim

The COVID inquiry and journalists claim a week’s delay in the first UK lockdown caused 23,000 “avoidable” deaths.

Reality Check

• Where the Number Comes From: Not new; it's based on a 2021 Imperial College model.

  “It is only one of several attempts that have been made by academics and this specific number of 23,000 is not a new synthesis or consensus based on what we now know in 2025.” — Tim Harford (13:47)

• Model’s Limitations:
  • The 23,000 is a midpoint of a massive range—between 10,000 and 32,000.
  • Models require “numerous assumptions” about what influenced the spread of infection.
• What Actually Happened?
  • Voluntary measures introduced a week before official lockdown were highly effective in reducing transmission. This nuance isn’t reflected in the Imperial model, which assumes only gradual effect before lockdown.
  • The model’s assumptions may exaggerate the effect of an earlier lockdown.

Notable Quotes

“All models are wrong, and some are useful.”
— Sir David Spiegelhalter, quoting George Box (10:20)

“You can’t really just analyse the first wave in isolation.”
— Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter (13:36)

“Any self-respecting statistician would not give it that weight.”
— Tim Harford (14:38)

Institutional (In)Competence

• Sir David criticizes the inquiry’s lack of internal statistical expertise, suggesting nobody fact-checked the figure with appropriate skepticism.
• The inquiry says their report correctly cited papers from leading experts, but the More or Less team highlights the risks of turning a contested model into a “statistical fact.”

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Segment 3: X (Twitter) and the “10.8 Million Families” Claim

Timestamps: 17:27–22:45
Key Speakers: Tim Harford, Nathan Gower (Correspondent)

The Claim

A government minister told the House of Lords that 10.8 million families use X (Twitter) as their main news source—“more than any other social platform.”

Reality Check

• No Public Data: The government’s number is based on unpublished research.
• Ofcom’s Gold Standard Data:
  • Only 3% of UK adults (≈1.8 million individuals) say X is their “most important” news source. (19:45)
  • Even among teens (12–15), X isn't more popular—tied with TikTok and YouTube.
  • Facebook is the most popular social media source for news (7%), not X.
  • BBC is the most important source for a third of adults.

Notable Quote

“So the national regulator says that just under 2 million people regard X as their most important news source, while the government seems to be implying…the figure is more like 20 million or 30 million people.”
— Tim Harford (20:12)

Correction and Shift

• Thanks to reporter Nathan Gower, the government agreed to correct the parliamentary record, softening the claim to “10.8 million families use X as a news and information source.”
• Still, with no access to the underlying data, the figure’s accuracy remains dubious.

Notable Moment

“You have left your fingerprints on history.”
— Tim Harford to Nathan Gower (22:01)

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Segment 4: The “Quiet Revival” of Christian Worship

Timestamps: 24:00–29:37
Key Speakers: Tim Harford, Prof. Sir John Curtice, Rhiannon McAleer (Bible Society)

The Claim

A report (Bible Society, based on YouGov polling) claims that church attendance in England and Wales rose 50% between 2018 and 2024, led by young men.

Reality Check

• British Social Attitude Survey (BSA):
  • The “gold standard” survey finds the opposite: monthly Christian service attendance is down from 12% in 2018 to 9% in 2024.
  • The rise in YouGov's data is not reflected in church records, Catholic/Anglican attendance, or BSA data.
  • No surge among young Christians, either; if anything, religious identity is stable but attendance is still in gradual decline.

  “We just got the numbers the other way around, basically. Although there has been something of recovery from the position during the pandemic, the long-term decline in attendance at a Christian service of worship still seems to be going on.” — Sir John Curtice (25:31)

• Methodological Note: The BSA changed interview format in 2020 (in-person to online/phone), but this likely increased participation in such surveys, meaning if there were a real revival, the BSA should pick it up.

  “…the interesting question is why did they get the data they got? Given various other sources of evidence suggests that perhaps this doesn't seem to be the story.” — Sir John Curtice (29:02)

Notable Quotes

“While our data certainly has curiosities… I don't think there is enough evidence to suggest that [the revival] is totally rubbish.”
— Rhiannon McAleer, Bible Society (24:18)

“There isn't any evidence in our data of any kind of marked revival in Christianity in Great Britain.”
— Sir John Curtice (26:25)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “In any healthy market, you're going to see some businesses closing and… other businesses opening. And it seems like this is what's happening in the private school sector.”
  — Tim Harford (07:09)
• “It means there's no one in the enquiry who actually understands statistical modelling at all.”
  — Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter on inquiry’s use of the 23,000 line (14:43)
• “My heart tells me [More or Less] listeners are the top news consumers in the UK… unfortunately, Ofcom's data says they're watching the telly.”
  — Tim Harford & Nathan Gower (21:22–21:30)

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Key Takeaways

• Stats need proper context: Numbers cited in political and media debate are often more complex—and less conclusive—than they sound. Claims tying hundreds of school closures to VAT, or suggesting tens of thousands of avoidable COVID deaths, or a Christian resurgence, often misrepresent underlying data.
• Data transparency matters: Claims resting on unpublished, inaccessible research (as with “10.8 million families on X”) should be regarded skeptically, especially when independent and open datasets say otherwise.
• Expertise is critical: Even major public inquiries can misinterpret or overstate the conclusiveness of academic models or statistics.

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Endnote

This episode underscores the importance of critical statistic-literacy and the value of independent, evidence-based reporting. For more myth-busting and statistical detective work, tune in weekly or contact the team ([e-mail]).

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Hello and welcome to More or Less, your indefatigable guide to the numbers all around us in the news and in life. Hi, I'm Tim Harford. This week not one, but two statistical national treasures, Sir John Curtis and Sir David Spiegelhalter. And some big questions. Is it true that when Covid hit the UK, a one week delay in imposing lockdown led to 23,000 deaths? Has the levying of VAT led to the closure of more than 100 private schools? Is there really a quiet revival of Christian worship? And do more than 10 million families rely on X as their main source of news? First, loyal listener Quentin got in touch to ask about a number that's been doing the rounds in newspaper headlines recently. Here's an example from the more than.

[C]

100 private schools forced to close after Labour's controversial tax rate on fees.

[B]

The story claimed that a total of.

[C]

105 independent schools have closed due to Labour's controversial VAT raid on fees.

[B]

In case you're wondering what a VAT raid is, I'm afraid it's not an exciting heist. It's just this. Private school fees used to be exempt from vat, but in opposition the Labour Party promised to remove that exemption if elected. They were and they did. The standard 20% rate has applied from January 2025. So is it true that 105 private schools have closed as a result? Our sauna correspondent, Tom Coles, has been looking into it. Hello, Tom.

[D]

Hello. Are you sure people are going to remember that one, Tim?

[B]

None of us will ever forget it.

[D]

So, anyway, this stat is sourced to the isc, the Independent Schools Council, based on their own list of the schools that have closed. But you can cross check most of that list against the Department for Education database. Get information about schools.

[B]

Hmm. What do you use that for?

[D]

Not to get information about schools in Scotland, annoyingly. But the Scottish Department for Education told me three private schools have closed, though three have also opened. So let's call that quits for the sake of simplicity.

[B]

Ok, so what does the database with the highly literal name say for England and Wales?

[D]

That 104 independent schools have closed in the 18 months since Labour came to power promising to make those schools pay vat. At least one more has closed. That's not on my spreadsheet.

[B]

So the number's fine?

[D]

Not really, no. Especially if you're using it to judge the effect of the introduction of vat. Because if you count school closures in this way, in the last 18 months of the Conservative government, the months immediately before the ones we're talking about, 108 schools closed.

[B]

Wait, so imposing VAT has meant the rate of school closures has actually fallen?

[E]

Yeah.

[D]

What's more, under the Labour government, 165 private schools in England and Wales have opened. The school count is up, thanks be to vat.

[B]

Ok, so this number is. Well, it's a number, but it's silly to connect these closures to vat. Wait a minute, Tom, why are you still here?

[D]

Thanks, Tim. Well, look, when you lift the lid on this silly number, you find some interesting stuff about the state of the independent sector. For a start, 18 of the closed schools are independent special schools, educating disabled kids and kids with special educational needs. The vast majority of the kids in these schools, more than 90%, have an EHC plan, which means that local authorities are paying the school fees and they're exempt from VAT when they do that. These shouldn't be part of a count about VAT at all. And they're also in a booming sector. The reason the overall number of independent schools is increasing is because loads of special schools are opening. 146 over this same time period. If we turn to the mainstream independent schools, another 12 of those, by my account, were also specialist schools where the state Picks up the bill. Some of those are also tiny. For example, five of the schools have a capacity of five or fewer pupils. Three of the schools closed because there was only one pupil in each and they moved on to bigger schools.

[B]

Interesting. So if you take out those schools, which are clearly nothing to do with vat, what do the remaining schools look like?

[D]

A really mixed bag. Seven of the schools had a capacity of more than 508 of them were selective. But a lot of these schools were quite small. About half have a capacity of 150 or fewer. The majority of the schools are primary or prep schools and that's to be expected because the falling birth rate in England and Wales means there are fewer primary age pupils to go around. They're also half full the last time they counted the pupils.

[B]

So, VAT or no vat, it is hard to run a school when there are fewer school aged children.

[D]

Yeah, and VAT won't have made it easier. But there are still cases where the school closures were clearly nothing to do with vat. For example, one prominent school to close was a selective all girls school in Croydon, the old palace of John Whitgift School. But its closure was announced in September 2023, so quite a way before the Labour election victory. Unsurprisingly, lots of the schools that closed did cite VAT as a contributing factor to their closure. Alongside minimum wage increases, the removal of charitable status on business rates and inflation, hitting the cost of running and maintaining, in many cases, very expensive to run and maintain old buildings. That and the demographic changes. Many of these schools were financially precarious already. One talked about financial problems dating back to 2019. I spoke to the head of a small Islamic Montessori primary school that had found things harder and harder since COVID And VAT was the last thing on a long list of things.

[B]

Just putting my economist's hat on for a moment. In any healthy market, you're going to see some businesses closing and other businesses opening. And it seems like this is what's happening in the private school sector. And of course, VAT will play a role in some cases. Obviously, it's no fun to be a teacher or a pupil or a parent at a school which shuts down suddenly. But, Tom, do we have a sense of whether, taken as a whole, the private school sector is faring better or worse than in the past?

[D]

I think worse pretty clearly. While the number of school closures doesn't tell you much, when you take account of the size of the schools, more capacity is being lost through closures. Now than in the recent past.

[B]

And what about the actual change in the number of pupils in private schools? What do we know about that?

[D]

That is the key figure and something we actually encourage people to bet on.

[B]

Yes, the bet. We have had emails asking us who won.

[D]

Yes. In September last year, Politics substacker Sam Friedman and Maxwell Marlowe of the Adam Smith Institute struck a bet on how much the private school pupil numbers would decline by pupils across all schools are counted every January. So the starting point is January 2024, before labour came to power. They're counting the pupils about now to get the answer and we'll get those numbers in the summer. At the halfway point, January 2025, just as the tax came in, pupil numbers were down by 11,000, or about 2% of the total pupil count.

[B]

Thank you, Tom. The COVID 19 pandemic might be over, but the mulling over what happened isn't. While we were off air, the COVID 19 inquiry published its second report focusing on the first wave of the pandemic. Many of you saw the resulting headlines.

[C]

The trail of bad decisions and delays that led to 23,000 avoidable deaths. Covid chaos in Boris Johnson's government led to 23,000 deaths, damning inquiry fines.

[B]

And many of you emailed in to ask where this number came from and is it right? I think it would be understandable if you took those headlines to mean that the inquiry had done some in depth research about the first wave of the pandemic. And after much scrutiny of the information available, their top assessment was that lockdown would have saved 23,000 lives if introduced a week earlier. So would it surprise you to learn that it's not based on new research and analysis? It's simply quoting a piece of research by academics at Imperial College published back in 2021. That research was itself debated at the time. Here with me to explain this in more detail is Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a man who seemed to spend most of the pandemic talking to more or less. He began by explaining that the figure of 23,000, an estimate of the number of lives that would have been saved if lockdown had begun a week earlier, is just the midpoint of a broad range of estimated outcomes.

[F]

That 23,000 has got an uncertainty interval from 10,000 to 32,000. But even more important, any statistical model, as everyone knows who does this stuff, is based on numerous assumptions and they drive the conclusions. And yet we can be challenged in George Box's famous quote, all models are wrong and some are Useful. And this particular model, the imperial models for the effect of these, what's called non pharmaceutical interventions, like lockdown, have been strongly contested.

[B]

One reason is that lockdown was announced on March 23, 2020. The Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, also announced a range of measures a week earlier, on 16 March. He asked that everyone stop non essential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel. He asked people to start working from home where they possibly could and that they should avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues.

[F]

So it's actually clear that daily infections peaked before the lockdown. Things were getting better before the lockdown.

[B]

So if the estimated number of daily infections were already going down before the lockdown, what was going on? For Spiegelhalter, it's about the change in behaviour that was already taking place in.

[F]

Such a model, as I said, has to make many assumptions about what was happening and in particular what the effects of the voluntary measures that were introduced to on March 16. Encouraging people to stay at home, actually closing schools as well, which were done, and these we now know not at the time, had actually a very strong effect.

[B]

And perhaps the Imperial College model didn't fully take account of this.

[F]

The point is, you have to make an assumption about what happened during that week. And the imperial model makes, I think, quite a strange assumption of assuming that there was a sort of gradual effect on R. You know, the number R number, the average number of people that each COVID infection goes on to infect, and they assume that it declined slowly, steadily over that week, rather than having a sudden change. And this assumption means that if you do posit, well, what if we locked down a week earlier, the effect of that is a lot bigger than if you had assumed that the effect of the voluntary measures was pretty instantaneous too.

[B]

While Sir David thinks the R number, the number of people who each person will infect, would have been falling more quickly in that crucial week after voluntary social distancing measures were introduced, but before the Prime Minister instructed most people to stay indoors. The imperial research assumes that voluntary measures were less effective and the R number fell more slowly. Before mandatory restrictions, the data was patchy. Then working out how many people were infected was hard. Researchers were using surveillance data such as hospital admissions, and only later in the pandemic would we be regularly testing people. The point is, this just shows that even among experienced statisticians and researchers, modelling is hard. But even if you accepted the model's findings about saving 23,000 lives, that only describes the first lockdown and the first wave of the pandemic. David points out that the Imperial paper itself acknowledges that if the first lockdown had been sooner, the second wave would.

[F]

Probably have been bigger, possibly sort of counteracting any gains in the first wave. So you'd have had to have more stringent measures in the second wave. So you can't really just analyse the first wave in isolation.

[B]

The team at Imperial College made a perfectly reasonable attempt to model the impact of a new virus at a time when we didn't have good data. But it is only one of several attempts that have been made by academics and this specific number of 23,000 is not a new synthesis or consensus based on what we now know in 2025. David says that this 23,000 stat is a modelling estimate, not an established fact, and he worries that the inquiry report has turned it into one.

[F]

In the actual report, it said that modelling has established that the number of deaths would have been 23,000 fewer had they locked down a week earlier. In the press release, they changed language a bit and said that modelling shows that there would have been 23,000 fewer deaths.

[B]

But any self respecting statistician would not give it that weight.

[F]

He says it means that there's no one in the inquiry who actually understands statistical modelling at all. And I think for something that's costing hundreds of millions of pounds and taking vast amounts of effort and time, and it's pretty bad that they don't have internal statistical advice which could stop them making such a massive mistake.

[B]

David has contributed to three other public inquiries, including into the serial killer, Dr. Harold Shipman and the infected Blood scandal.

[F]

And they all had dedicated statistical teams that I hope would detect this sort of stuff and I'm just amazed that this gets through.

[B]

Our thanks to Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter. We asked the inquiry whether they had a dedicated statistical team, but we couldn't get an answer. However, they did give us a long statement that contained the following section about the 23,000.

[C]

The figure of 23,000 cited in the Inquiry's Chair Baroness Hallett's report is from a paper included in evidence authored by leading data scientists, statisticians and experts in the field of infectious disease epidemiology. The paper concludes that of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number below 1. Consistently, if introduced one week earlier, it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600, thereby providing the 23,000 figure.

[B]

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[C]

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[B]

On Monday 5th January, a debate was held in the House of Lords on the government's continued use of the social media website X, formerly known as Twitter. This was in the wake of reports that its inbuilt AI chatbot Grok, was being used to create sexualized images of women and even children. Since then, the media regulator Ofcom has launched a formal investigation into X over the matter. But during the debate, Baroness Ruth Anderson, responding on behalf of the government, argued that X was an important source of news for many people in the UK.

[C]

Not only are 19.2 million people registered British citizens registered with X, but 10.8 million families use X as their main news source. That's more than any other social platform, which I found to be genuinely extraordinary.

[B]

Extraordinary maybe, but is it genuine? Do 10.8 million families use X as their main news source? Are children up and down the country gathering on the sofa while Mum and Dad read out their live feeds? Our reporter Nathan Gower saw this number and started digging. Hello, Nathan.

[G]

Hi Tim.

[B]

So what have you found?

[G]

So this figure apparently comes from government commissioned market research data, which isn't publicly available.

[B]

So there's no way for you to look at the underlying data?

[G]

Well, apparently not. That's a shame, because it's always my first step on this kind of story. You find out how many people were asked what kind of questions, whether there's any kind of inconsistency in the data, that sort of thing. Luckily we do have other publicly available data. This actually comes from Ofcom. Every year they conduct a major piece of research, a big survey of the population about their news consumption habits.

[B]

Well, that sounds useful. What does it say?

[G]

So I had to dig into the big underlying spreadsheets to find the data.

[B]

This is literally your job, Nathan.

[G]

I do it happily. It turns out they ask respondents what their single most important news source is. Now, the government claim was about X being the main news source for 10.8 million families. Now, to me that sounds like a close synonym for most important news source.

[B]

Agreed. So what do the Ofcom figures say?

[G]

According to their survey, 3% of adults said that X was their most important news source. And it was the same proportion, 3% for 12 to 15 year olds as well. So that all equates to about 1.8 million individuals in the UK. This is much lower than the government's figure of 10.8 million families. And families, famously, I would argue, consist of more than one person. So this implies it's more like 20.

[B]

To 30 million individuals, nearly half the country. So the national regulator says that just under 2 million people regard X as their most important news source, while the government seems to be implying that the figure is more like 20 million or 30 million people. And that's based on secret data that we can't see.

[G]

That seems to be about it. And also Baroness Anderson made another claim that more families said X was their main news source than any other social media platform. But the Ofcom figures again tell a different story. They say that Facebook is the most popular social media platform for news, with 7% of adults naming it as their most important news source. TikTok, YouTube and X, they're all tied on 3%. And it's the same story for 12 to 15 year olds. Only 3% of them say that X is their most important news source.

[B]

Okay, so that claim seems to be wrong as well. So who's top for news? When you look at all sources, the BBC is top.

[G]

They've got 32% of adults naming one of its various outlets as their most important news source. It's also top for 12 to 15 year olds. And that's got 15% of them naming it as their most important source.

[B]

I imagine that's mainly loyal, more or less listeners.

[G]

Unfortunately, Tim, there is no data to back that up.

[B]

What does your heart tell you, Nathan?

[G]

That they are indeed loyal listeners. Unfortunately, Ofcom's data says they're watching the telly. TV was the top source with 36% of people naming a TV station as their most important source of news. Social media in general was 21%. Other Internet sources, such as news websites, are on 13%. Radio is 9% and daily newspapers, that's about 4%.

[B]

So what did the Government have to say about all this?

[G]

So they told me that a correction would be made in Hansard, the official report of all parliamentary debates.

[B]

They're going to correct the official parliamentary record because of you, Nathan. You have left your fingerprints on history.

[G]

I can die happy. They told me that the record would be changed to include 10.8 million families use X as a news and information source.

[B]

So they're now just saying 10.8 million families get news and information from Twitter or X. They're no longer saying it's their main source of news.

[G]

That's right. And notice that they've added information in there. That's a change. Also, they're still saying 10.8 million families, but because they won't show us the data, we don't know how that equates to individuals. For what it's worth, ofcom's figures say 8.5 million individuals use X to access news.

[B]

Nathan, thank you very much. You're listening to More Or Less, and if you were listening last week, you'll have heard a whole lot of More Or Less five special programmes looking at the stats of the nation. As a few of you spotted, one of those stats was actually wrong. In the first episode on Monday, talking about the importance of the NHS in terms of state spending, IFS director Helen Miller said in an unscripted discussion that The NHS employed 6 million people. That's actually how many people are employed in the public sector. In total, the NHS employs more like 1.5 million. Sorry, and thanks to everyone who wrote in. Our email address, as always, is more or lessbc.co.uk. Loyal listeners will remember that back in July last year, we talked about a report from the Bible Society called the Quiet Revival, which claimed that church going in England and Wales went up 50% between 2018 and 2024. This claim was based on two sizable polls from YouGov. What's more, this Christian revival was being led by young people, particularly young men. As we said at the time, there was good reason to be sceptical about these results. The Church of England and Catholic churches weren't reporting an increase in attendance, for example. But Rhiannon McAleer, the Bible Society's Director of Research and impact, stuck to her guns.

[C]

While our data certainly has curiosities in it and more questions can be asked I don't think there is enough evidence to suggest that it's totally rubbish.

[B]

Well, more contrary evidence has since arrived. You see, back in July, we didn't have the 2024 data from the British Social Attitude Surve. This survey covers the whole of the UK and is generally considered the gold standard in surveys. You actually have to say those words when you describe it. It's tracked church going since 1983 and if the Christian revival is real, you would expect to also see it in this data. What's more, at the end of last year, Gold Standard Survey analyst Professor Sir John Curtis took a look at the numbers. He is Senior Research Fellow at natsen, the National Centre for Social Research, which runs the bsa. The Bible Society found that monthly attendance at Christian services rose from 8% in 2018 to 12% in 2024. It's quite a big increase. Obviously there would have been a dip for the pandemic. What did the British Social Attitude Survey show?

[E]

The truth is that the British Social Attitude Survey effectively shows the reverse pattern. So if we go back, for example, to our 2018 survey done, the pandemic, we had 12% of people saying that they attended a Christian service. So somewhat higher than the YouGov survey. It dipped during the pandemic, it's come back up a bit, but it's now running at around 9% of people saying that they attend a Christian service once a month. So we've got the same numbers. We just got the numbers the other way around, basically. Although there was been something of recovery from the position during the pandemic, the long term decline in attendance at a Christian service of worship still seems to be going on. And there isn't any evidence in our data of any kind marked revival in Christianity in Great Britain.

[B]

John says the same goes for the supposed revival in church attendance among young people. There's no sign of that either, although he's keen to stress that the picture is very different. If you're talking about all religions and not just Christians, Young Hindus and Muslims are much more likely to attend religious services than their Christian counterparts. One interesting thing about the quiet revival thesis is that it's not actually based on a revival in Christian identity.

[E]

If you actually look at the proportion of people who identify with a Christian religion, it's running at 40% in our data before the pandemic, it's also running at around 40% now. Actually, the decline in identity does seem largely to have stopped. It's just that people are even now less likely to attend, even if they do identify with the Christian religion. Though that 40% figure is almost exactly replicated by the Bible Society data in the two surveys. In other words, what the Bible Society seemed to have found is an increase in attendance, despite the fact that identity is the same and despite the fact that their figure for identity is very similar to ours.

[B]

The Bible Society points out that the BSA survey changed methodology in 2020 from in person interviews to online or phone, which could disrupt the long term comparisons. John says the survey is still a random probability survey and it's been carefully weighted so the samples match.

[E]

But be insofar as perhaps there is a difference between the samples, it should, if anything, push our data in the direction of also perhaps finding higher levels of participation. Because, for example, when you look at our data participation in elections, for example, or certain other phenomena, you do find that the sample that's been generated online is perhaps a little more participative, a little more engaged in general in social and political life. So that suggests that, if anything, that the change of methodology might have led us to anticipate our numbers going up rather than the figure still showing a decline.

[B]

Let's go back to the central claim. YouGov polling for the Bible Society suggests monthly churchgoing went from 8% up to 12%. And the British Social Attitude Survey suggests it went from 12% down to 9%.

[E]

I have to say I've looked at the tables that YouGov provided to the Bible Society. It's perfectly clear that the Bible Society were reliably reporting the data that were acquired for them by YouGov. So I don't think there's any reason to believe that the Bible Society in some way or another were putting a particularly favorable light from their point of view on the data. Those were the data they got. And the interesting question is why did they get the data they got? Given various other sources of evidence suggests that perhaps this doesn't seem to be the story.

[B]

Our thanks to Professor Sir John Curtis. That's all we have time for this week, but please keep your questions and your comments coming in to More or [e-mail]. if you fancy a challenge, you can take the Open University Statistics quiz. Just search out the More or Less website and follow the links to the Open University. Until next time, Goodbye. More or Less was presented by me, Tim Harford. The producer was Tom Coles with Nathan Gower, Charlotte MacDonald and Lizzie McNeil. Our production coordinator was Brenda Brown. The programme was recorded and mixed by Gareth Jones and our editor is Richard Varden.

[C]

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