More or Less (BBC Radio 4) — Episode Summary

Episode Title: Have more than 100 private schools been forced to close because of VAT?
Air Date: January 14, 2026
Host: Tim Harford

Episode Overview

This week, Tim Harford and the More or Less team tackle several claims circulating in UK public debate, examining the numbers behind each and offering evidence-based critiques. The main questions covered include:

• Has the introduction of VAT on private school fees actually caused a sharp rise in private school closures?
• Did a week’s delay in the UK’s first COVID-19 lockdown truly lead to 23,000 extra deaths?
• Is Christian worship seeing a “quiet revival” in the UK?
• Do over 10 million families regard X (formerly Twitter) as their main news source?

As always, the show leans on statistical sleuthing, expert interviews, and classic More or Less wit to separate fact from fiction.

Segment 1: VAT and Private School Closures

Timestamps: 02:11–08:34
Key Speakers: Tim Harford (Host), Tom Coles (Correspondent)

The Claim

Recent headlines assert that more than 100 private schools have been forced to close as a direct result of Labour’s introduction of VAT on school fees.

Reality Check

• Source of the Stat: The number (105 closures) comes from the Independent Schools Council (ISC) and is cross-checked against the Department for Education database.
• Truth About Closures:
  • In the 18 months since Labour’s VAT policy, 104 independent schools have closed in England and Wales (plus 3 in Scotland, offset by 3 new openings).
  • In the final 18 months of Conservative government before the Labour VAT policy, 108 schools closed.

    “Wait, so imposing VAT has meant the rate of school closures has actually fallen?” — Tim Harford (04:01)

  • 165 new private schools opened since the VAT change, so the overall number of private schools increased.

The Nuance

• Special Schools: 18 closures were of independent special schools mainly serving disabled/SEND children, who are typically funded by local authorities (and thus exempt from VAT).
  Many new private schools opening are also special schools, so the total in this sector is increasing.
• Tiny Schools: Several closed schools had minuscule enrolment—some had only one or two pupils remaining.
• Demographic Changes: Primary-age enrolment is naturally down due to falling birth rates, impacting prep/primary school viability far more than VAT.
• Causal Factors: Some closures cited VAT as a problem, but other major issues were at play—rising costs, minimum wage hikes, removal of charitable business rates, aging infrastructure, general financial precarity, and long-term financial issues since COVID.
• Summary: Attributing all closures to VAT is “silly,” as the host puts it (04:19), and oversimplifies a complex picture.

Notable Quote

“VAT or no VAT, it is hard to run a school when there are fewer school-aged children.”
— Tim Harford (06:04)

Notable Moment

• The segment debunks a scary VAT-related stat and uses it as a case study in how stats get misused in debate—and how the reality is more complex.

Segment 2: Did a Delayed Lockdown Cause 23,000 COVID Deaths?

Timestamps: 08:34–16:15
Key Speakers: Tim Harford, Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter

The Claim

The COVID inquiry and journalists claim a week’s delay in the first UK lockdown caused 23,000 “avoidable” deaths.

Reality Check

• Where the Number Comes From: Not new; it's based on a 2021 Imperial College model.

  “It is only one of several attempts that have been made by academics and this specific number of 23,000 is not a new synthesis or consensus based on what we now know in 2025.” — Tim Harford (13:47)

• Model’s Limitations:
  • The 23,000 is a midpoint of a massive range—between 10,000 and 32,000.
  • Models require “numerous assumptions” about what influenced the spread of infection.
• What Actually Happened?
  • Voluntary measures introduced a week before official lockdown were highly effective in reducing transmission. This nuance isn’t reflected in the Imperial model, which assumes only gradual effect before lockdown.
  • The model’s assumptions may exaggerate the effect of an earlier lockdown.

Notable Quotes

“All models are wrong, and some are useful.”
— Sir David Spiegelhalter, quoting George Box (10:20)

“You can’t really just analyse the first wave in isolation.”
— Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter (13:36)

“Any self-respecting statistician would not give it that weight.”
— Tim Harford (14:38)

Institutional (In)Competence

• Sir David criticizes the inquiry’s lack of internal statistical expertise, suggesting nobody fact-checked the figure with appropriate skepticism.
• The inquiry says their report correctly cited papers from leading experts, but the More or Less team highlights the risks of turning a contested model into a “statistical fact.”

Segment 3: X (Twitter) and the “10.8 Million Families” Claim

Timestamps: 17:27–22:45
Key Speakers: Tim Harford, Nathan Gower (Correspondent)

The Claim

A government minister told the House of Lords that 10.8 million families use X (Twitter) as their main news source—“more than any other social platform.”

Reality Check

• No Public Data: The government’s number is based on unpublished research.
• Ofcom’s Gold Standard Data:
  • Only 3% of UK adults (≈1.8 million individuals) say X is their “most important” news source. (19:45)
  • Even among teens (12–15), X isn't more popular—tied with TikTok and YouTube.
  • Facebook is the most popular social media source for news (7%), not X.
  • BBC is the most important source for a third of adults.

Notable Quote

“So the national regulator says that just under 2 million people regard X as their most important news source, while the government seems to be implying…the figure is more like 20 million or 30 million people.”
— Tim Harford (20:12)

Correction and Shift

• Thanks to reporter Nathan Gower, the government agreed to correct the parliamentary record, softening the claim to “10.8 million families use X as a news and information source.”
• Still, with no access to the underlying data, the figure’s accuracy remains dubious.

Notable Moment

“You have left your fingerprints on history.”
— Tim Harford to Nathan Gower (22:01)

Segment 4: The “Quiet Revival” of Christian Worship

Timestamps: 24:00–29:37
Key Speakers: Tim Harford, Prof. Sir John Curtice, Rhiannon McAleer (Bible Society)

The Claim

A report (Bible Society, based on YouGov polling) claims that church attendance in England and Wales rose 50% between 2018 and 2024, led by young men.

Reality Check

• British Social Attitude Survey (BSA):
  • The “gold standard” survey finds the opposite: monthly Christian service attendance is down from 12% in 2018 to 9% in 2024.
  • The rise in YouGov's data is not reflected in church records, Catholic/Anglican attendance, or BSA data.
  • No surge among young Christians, either; if anything, religious identity is stable but attendance is still in gradual decline.

  “We just got the numbers the other way around, basically. Although there has been something of recovery from the position during the pandemic, the long-term decline in attendance at a Christian service of worship still seems to be going on.” — Sir John Curtice (25:31)

• Methodological Note: The BSA changed interview format in 2020 (in-person to online/phone), but this likely increased participation in such surveys, meaning if there were a real revival, the BSA should pick it up.

  “…the interesting question is why did they get the data they got? Given various other sources of evidence suggests that perhaps this doesn't seem to be the story.” — Sir John Curtice (29:02)

Notable Quotes

“While our data certainly has curiosities… I don't think there is enough evidence to suggest that [the revival] is totally rubbish.”
— Rhiannon McAleer, Bible Society (24:18)

“There isn't any evidence in our data of any kind of marked revival in Christianity in Great Britain.”
— Sir John Curtice (26:25)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “In any healthy market, you're going to see some businesses closing and… other businesses opening. And it seems like this is what's happening in the private school sector.”
  — Tim Harford (07:09)
• “It means there's no one in the enquiry who actually understands statistical modelling at all.”
  — Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter on inquiry’s use of the 23,000 line (14:43)
• “My heart tells me [More or Less] listeners are the top news consumers in the UK… unfortunately, Ofcom's data says they're watching the telly.”
  — Tim Harford & Nathan Gower (21:22–21:30)

Key Takeaways

• Stats need proper context: Numbers cited in political and media debate are often more complex—and less conclusive—than they sound. Claims tying hundreds of school closures to VAT, or suggesting tens of thousands of avoidable COVID deaths, or a Christian resurgence, often misrepresent underlying data.
• Data transparency matters: Claims resting on unpublished, inaccessible research (as with “10.8 million families on X”) should be regarded skeptically, especially when independent and open datasets say otherwise.
• Expertise is critical: Even major public inquiries can misinterpret or overstate the conclusiveness of academic models or statistics.

Endnote

This episode underscores the importance of critical statistic-literacy and the value of independent, evidence-based reporting. For more myth-busting and statistical detective work, tune in weekly or contact the team (moreorless@BBC.co.uk).