Hit movies and killer birthdays (WS)

Summary

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More or Less: "Hit movies and killer birthdays" (BBC Radio 4, June 29, 2012)

Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less explores the stories behind statistics linked to some of the world's biggest blockbuster movies—specifically, the real highest-grossing film of all time (when adjusted for inflation)—and takes on the intriguing claim from a Swiss study that you are more likely to die on your birthday. Host Angela Saini, with the help of reporter Charlotte MacDonald and special guests, debunks common statistical myths and explains what the numbers really mean.

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Key Discussion Points

1. Blockbuster Movies and Box Office Statistics

Should We Be Impressed by Modern Box Office Records?

• Context: "The Avengers" set new box office records in 2012.
• Point Made: Raw box office numbers are misleading due to inflation and rising ticket prices.
• Angela Saini [01:13]:

  "After all, the prices of most things, including cinema tickets, go up over time. So we should expect films to make more and more in dollar amounts..."

• Key Question: Which movie is really the highest-grossing of all time, when you account for inflation?

Investigating the True Highest-Grossing Film

• Charlotte MacDonald's Investigation:
  • Widely cited: "Gone With the Wind" is considered the highest earner when adjusted for inflation.
  • Charlotte MacDonald [02:53]:

    "According to Guinness World Records, it's made over $5 billion worldwide at today's prices."

  • Doubts over how this figure is calculated—lack of transparent evidence from Guinness.

Reassessing the Data

• Used Variety archives for historical earnings, but found these are studio earnings (share of gross), not the total box office.

• Bruce Nash (The Numbers) explains:

  • In 1939, studios typically got 45% of each dollar spent on tickets.
  • By 1980s, better tracking was possible.

• Bruce Nash [04:10]:

  "Of every dollar that somebody spent on a movie ticket, the studio might get 45 cents."

A More Accurate Estimate

• Adjusted the numbers assuming studios kept 45%.
• Bruce Nash [05:21]:

  "You actually get a number of about $178.6 million" (original earnings).

• When adjusted to today's prices:
  • Charlotte MacDonald [05:28]:

    "...Gone with the Wind has made $1.9 billion in the United States since 1939. And that figure beats all other contenders, including The Avengers. In fact, it's about twice as much as Avatar..."

The Avengers' Place in the Rankings

• Even allowing for inflation, "The Avengers" set a record for the highest opening weekend since at least 1995.
• Angela Saini [05:51]:

  "So it sounds like Gone with the Wind really does deserve its place at the top."

• But "The Avengers" remains a massive hit, with room to keep earning.

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2. The "Killer Birthday" Statistic

The Claim

• A Swiss study claims people are 14% more likely to die on their birthday.
• Angela Saini [06:49]:

  "This killer birthday phenomenon has generated quite a bit of media attention, but how seriously should we take it?"

Analyzing the Data

• Prof. David Spiegelhalter (Statistician) explains the findings:

  • The study of 2.5 million deaths shows a flat rate all year except for a spike on birthdays.
  • No sign of people 'holding on' or 'jumping the gun' (dying just before or after birthdays).

• Prof. David Spiegelhalter [07:00]:

  "It's absolutely flat apart from this blip on your birthday, an absolute spike. 14% something on your birthday that kills you..."

  • However, the 'excess' is only about 900 deaths out of 2.5 million—statistically small.
  • Spiegelhalter is skeptical; even a small administrative error could account for the blip (e.g. 0.04% incorrect matching of birth and death dates).

• Prof. David Spiegelhalter [08:15]:

  "...A mistake like that only has to happen in 0.04% of registrations in order to completely explain this blip."

Study Author Responds

• Dr. Vladeta Adjacech Gross (Lead researcher, University of Zurich):
  • Admits some of the increase could be due to administrative errors.
  • When the data are analyzed differently, the increased risk may be closer to 4%, but still potentially significant.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Angela Saini [00:11]:

  "...More or less. A lone statistical sloop adrift on a sea of nonsense."

• Charlotte MacDonald (on changing the research quest) [03:20]:

  "It's a plot twist."

• Angela Saini (on statistical storytelling) [03:34]:

  "This is even better than a movie. I'm gripped already."

• Prof. Spiegelhalter (skepticism about the birthday effect) [08:16]:

  "...frankly, rather implausible finding... I think in order to be convinced about that, I'd want to see them sadly go back to every single match and double-check."

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Important Timestamps

• 00:11 – Introduction to blockbuster movie statistics
• 02:34 – Charlotte MacDonald investigates movie box office legends
• 04:10 – Bruce Nash explains historical box office accounting and inflation
• 05:28 – Adjusted estimate: "Gone With the Wind" is still #1
• 06:49 – Angela Saini introduces the "killer birthday" study
• 07:00–08:16 – Professor Spiegelhalter critiques the Swiss study
• 08:32 – Study author’s response; findings revised to a possible 4% effect

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Summary

This More or Less episode punctures statistical myths about blockbuster movies and the supposed dangers of birthdays, highlighting the importance of context, careful data interpretation, and skepticism. The real highest-grossing movie, when adjusted for inflation, is "Gone With the Wind," and the seeming spike in deaths on birthdays may be more about data quirks than fate.

Both segments entertain with narrative flair and statistical rigor, making complex numbers both accessible and fascinating for a general audience.

Transcript

[BBC Announcer]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[Angela Saini]

you've downloaded. More or less A lone statistical sloop adrift on a sea of nonsense. In this week's episode, we're talking blockbuster movies and killer birthdays. For the next 10 minutes, you're with more or less the Numbers program. Well, I say numbers program, but we're so much more than that. In fact, this is how the head of the BBC World Service described our creation.

[Narrator/Voice Actor]

There was an idea to bring together a group of remarkable people

[Angela Saini]

so when

[Narrator/Voice Actor]

we needed them, they could fight the battles that we never could.

[Angela Saini]

Movie fans might notice that this also happens to be how Samuel L. Jackson's character is in the blockbuster movie the Avengers. Describe the creation of S.H.I.E.L.D. a shadowy crime fighting agency that makes use of superheroes like Iron man and the Hulk. This program's not all that different. I'm Angela Saini. Or if you prefer, Statwoman. And if you recognize that clip from the Avengers, you're certainly not alone. When it came out earlier this year, it set a new record in America for box office takings over an opening weekend. And it's already the third highest grossing film of all time in the whole world, even though it hasn't been released everywhere yet. But how impressed should we be by that? After all, the prices of most things, including cinema tickets, go up over time. So we should expect films to make more and more in dollar amounts, just as we should expect a steady stream of new records for the highest earning company or the most expensive painting sold at auction. So a better question might be this. What's the highest grossing film of all time if you adjust for inflation? That's a question we asked our reporter Charlotte MacDonald to investigate. Or as Hollywood might have it, in

[Narrator/Voice Actor]

a world where numbers betray, where nothing is as it seems and everything you think you know is wrong, Charlotte MacDonald has one week to find one answer. The truth.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Actually, my quest was a lot easier than you might think, because there's one film which everyone in movieland seems to agree is the highest earner of all time, if you adjust for inflation.

[Angela Saini]

Cue music.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Yes, it's Gone With a Wind, starring Clark Gable and Vivian Leigh. According to Guinness World Records, it's made over $5 billion worldwide at today's prices.

[Angela Saini]

But how confident can we be about that number? I mean, the film was released over 70 years ago.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Well, that is a good question. And I asked Guinness World Records for that evidence, and they couldn't or at least they didn't provide any. So I decided to change my quest.

[Angela Saini]

Wait a minute, are you allowed to do that?

[Charlotte MacDonald]

It's a plot twist.

[Angela Saini]

Okay, go ahead.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

I decided the question I should really be asking is how much money did Gone with the Wind really? And let's stick to its biggest market, the US to give ourselves a fighting chance of arriving at a firm figure.

[Angela Saini]

This is even better than a movie. I'm gripped already.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Thanks. I started by looking at old copies of Variety, which published annual tables showing what each studio made from each of its movies as far back as 1939 when gone with the Wind came out. But the amounts listed in Variety seemed way lower than they should be. If Gone with the Wind was really the colossal money spinner we all think it was, I needed help. So like any self respecting movie heroine, I called for my trusty sidekick Bruce Nash from the entertainment data website the Numbers and we worked on the case together.

[Bruce Nash]

If you look back at 1939, films were distributed on a very regional basis. So there was an office, let's say in Chicago, it had deals with the movie theaters and then the theaters would pay a rental for essentially for renting the print. So of every dollar that somebody spent on a movie ticket, the studio might get 45 cents.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Which is why those Variety numbers are so low. They aren't box office takings like the data we have for modern movies, but a percentage of box office takings, the percentage the studio got back from the cinemas. By 1980 everything had changed.

[Bruce Nash]

First of all, there was the creation of FedEx, actually started in 1973 and this led to much better distribution models. They also had now the computer technology to start gathering the data much more quickly. And they started coming out on Tuesday morning with the box office for the film. And of course when you are doing marketing, you want to have the best numbers possible.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Now, Bruce thinks the figure quoted for Gone with the Wind was created in 1998 and assumes the studios only kept 40% of what was taken at the box office before 1980, when 45% would be a more likely figure.

[Bruce Nash]

So if you use that as the sort of the fairest number, you actually get a number of about $178.6 million.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

But we need to convert that sum into today's prices. If you do that, we reckon Gone with the wind has made $1.9 billion in the United States since 1939. And that figure beats all other contenders, including the Avengers. In fact, it's about twice as much as Avatar, which is the highest grossing film of all time if you don't adjust for inflation.

[Angela Saini]

So it sounds like Gone with the Wind really does deserve its place at the top.

[Charlotte MacDonald]

Yes, but none of this takes away from the fact that the Avengers was a very big hit indeed. We got in touch with rentrac, a company which collates box office data, and they told us that the Avengers had the highest earning opening weekend since at least 1995. That's as far as Rentrac's numbers go, even if you allow for inflation.

[Narrator/Voice Actor]

Charlotte McDonald.

[Angela Saini]

Well, let's see if it turns out to be as much of a classic as Gone with the Wind. And let's not forget, it could catch up. Gone with the Wind has been around for a lot longer. Thanks, Charlotte. Now, onto birthdays. If you are listening to this on your birthday, pay attention. According to a Swiss study, you're 14% more likely to die today than on any other day of the year. This killer birthday phenomenon has generated quite a bit of media attention, but how seriously should we take it? We asked a true statistical superhero, the British statistician Professor David Spiegelhalter, to go over the numbers for us.

[Narrator/Voice Actor]

Well, it's very interesting. The main graph is amazing because it shows, you know, in terms of the difference between your death day and your birthday, it's absolutely flat apart from this blip on your birthday, an absolute spike. 14% something on your birthday that kills you. And they don't find any dip before, so there's no holding on. And they don't find any dip after, so there's no jumping the gun. It's purely a birthday effect. They actually look for suggestors and excess in particular groups of people, particular causes of death. I actually think that's a red herring. I think they to identify these specific causes. When you do another check on it, the data are compatible with a uniform 14% blip on all causes, all ages, both sexes. This is a very big study. There's two and a half million deaths they've looked at, but if we actually look at what the excess is, it's an excess of 900 deaths in which people have been registered to have the same birthday as their death day. Now, there's not that many out of two and a half million. And I suppose maybe I'm getting skeptical in my old age, but this is only to do with matching registrations. Now, the Swiss are, you know, very precise bookkeepers, but it's possible that someone could have a matching birth date and death date in their death record when that was not actually the case. A mistake like that only has to happen in 0.04% of registrations in order to completely explain this blip. I'm not saying that's what happened, but I think for me to be convinced about this, frankly, rather implausible finding of this totally uniform effect across everything and this single little blip, I think in order to be convinced about that, I'd want to see them sadly go back to every single match and double check David Spiegelhalter.

[Angela Saini]

I put his critique to Dr. Vladeta Adjacech Gross from the University of Zurich. He's the birthday studies lead researcher and he agreed that administrative errors could have been to blame for some of the huge spike in deaths on birthdays. Crunching their data a different way, they found that the increased risk of dying on your birthday might actually be as low as 4%, not 14. But he says this is still a significant result. That's all for this week. If you're missing us Already, go to bbcworldservice.com more or less where you can hear old episodes. If you see a number you'd like us to investigate, write to more or lessbc code we read 100% of the emails we receive. Goodbye. That was More or less first broadcast on the BBC World Service with me, Angela Saini. The producer was Richard Knight, and the editor, Richard Varden.

[BBC Announcer]

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