More or Less: Behind the Stats

Episode: How did lockdown impact children?

Air date: March 17, 2025

Host: Tim Harford, BBC Radio 4

Overview

In this special episode, Tim Harford and guests examine, five years on, the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on children and young people in England. The episode draws on the strongest available evidence and interviews experts in education, health, and social policy to understand what we know—and crucially, what we don’t—about the lasting consequences of school closures, social restrictions, and disrupted rites of passage.

“There is no lockdown generation. There are millions of different stories, and those stories aren't over yet.”
— Tim Harford, [43:31]

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Immediate Health Impact of COVID-19 on Children

• Low Direct Health Impact:
  COVID-19 itself had a relatively small clinical impact on children; most severe cases were in those with pre-existing conditions.

  “Covid itself actually had a relatively small clinical impact on young people.”
  — Dr. Alastair Munro, [02:10]

• Intergenerational Transfer of Harms:
  The primary public health measures (lockdowns, school closures) were enacted for the benefit of the elderly and vulnerable, not children.

  “It was in order to protect the more elderly and more vulnerable people…”
  — Dr. Alastair Munro, [03:01]

2. Development of Pre-School Children

• Disruption of Formative Experiences:
  Many preschoolers missed key social interactions, affecting language and socio-emotional development, though evidence remains mixed.

  "They didn't have the typical formative life experiences like playing in parks, going to shops, seeing family, seeing friends."
  — Prof. Claudine Bowyer Crane, [05:10]

• Assessment Data:

  • Drop in the proportion of 4- and 5-year-olds achieving expected development levels, particularly in communication, literacy, and maths (from 71% pre-pandemic to 59% post-lockdown in sample schools, per EYFSP). [07:09]
  • However, a separate sample suggested little overall change, highlighting how family background and deprivation were risk amplifiers.

  "What both sets of data show is consistency in risk factors... such as deprivation."
  — Prof. Claudine Bowyer Crane, [08:39]

• Greater Classroom Variation: Teachers report increased variation in children's needs and attention spans. [09:07]

3. Educational Attainment for School-Age Children

a. Initial “Learning Loss”

• Writing Attainment:
  Private testing (No More Marking) observed a significant drop for year 7 pupils post-lockdown:

  "Our year 7s were 22 months behind where we expected them to be in the September of year seven."
  — Daisy Christidoulou, [13:38]

• Variation by Subject: Writing saw the greatest loss; maths and reading fared somewhat better ([13:52]).
• No Exams: National exams were cancelled (2020–21), causing gaps in standardised data. [11:49]

b. Recovery over Time

• Education Recovery:
  By year 9 (June 2023), most students had caught up to expected attainment levels.

  “Yes, by the end of year nine… those students were roughly back to where we might expect them to be.”
  — Daisy Christidoulou, [14:59]

• Subject/Regional Differences:
  Some learning loss in maths persisted; areas hit harder by school closures (North, Midlands) saw slower recovery.

  "We're still below where we would have been pre pandemic."
  — John Andrews, [16:46]

• Persistent Attainment Gap:
  The gap between lower and higher-income students, which had been narrowing, has widened again.

  "A decade of progress in closing the gap has been wiped out."
  — Dr. Rebecca Montagu, [19:21]

c. Variations in Home Learning

• Access to Devices:
  Access to laptops/tablets significantly impacted amount of schoolwork during lockdown.

  "Access to a device was absolutely crucial..."
  — Dr. Rebecca Montagu, [18:44]

• Distributional Impact:
  Top-attaining pupils’ reading scores actually improved post-COVID, while lower attainment groups fell further behind.

  "Their attainment in reading is higher than similar pupils pre pandemic, and at the bottom... attainment is lower."
  — John Andrews, [20:51]

4. Attendance and Behaviour

• Persistent Absence:
  Doubled from 10% (2019) to over 21% (2022–23); especially high among disadvantaged students.

  "In 2022, 2023... the persistent absence rate was 21.2% of pupils, so it had doubled since 2019."
  — John Andrews, [23:26]

• Severe Absence:
  Severe absenteeism at secondary level tripled since 2019. [23:54]
• Behaviour Issues:
  • Permanent exclusions have returned to pre-pandemic levels; suspensions have nearly doubled (from ~5 per 100 pupils in 2019 to 9 per 100 in 2022–23).

  "Suspensions were at the highest recorded level in 2223..."
  — John Andrews, [25:32]

5. Impact on University Students

• Data Gaps and Grade Inflation:
  Meaningful outcome comparisons are impossible due to grade inflation and post-pandemic policy changes.

  “It’s actually incredibly difficult to spot the extent to which there was real learning loss…”
  — Jim Dickinson, [26:57]

• Mental Health:
  ONS surveys showed high loneliness and anxiety during lockdown; difficult to separate continued impacts from cost-of-living pressures. [29:06]
• Increased Need for Paid Work:
  As maintenance loans lagged behind inflation, more students are working longer hours. [29:32]
• Summary:

  “The broad answer, I'm afraid, is we don't know.”
  — Jim Dickinson, [30:16]

6. Early Career and Labour Market Outcomes

• No Lasting Employment “Scarring”:
  While 2020 graduates initially had worse employment rates, they recovered fully within six months.

  "By the time we looked at 6 to 12 month employment rates, they looked no different from previous cohorts."
  — Xiaowei Xi, [32:15]

• Data Issues for Later Cohorts:
  There's uncertainty regarding cohorts entering workforce post-2022 due to data problems.

  “We don't know what's happened to the employment prospects of young people after 2023.”
  — Tim Harford, [32:49]

7. Mental Health and Wellbeing

• Breaking of the U-Shaped Wellbeing Curve:
  Traditionally, young people had the highest mental well-being; now, young adults have the poorest.

  “Now means that the mental health of young people, people in their 20s, is worse than the mental health of those in their 30s and 40s.”
  — Xiaowei Xi, [35:27]

• Lockdown Impact:
  Mental health among children and youth sharply declined during lockdown, with some recovery but no reversal of a longer-term negative trend.

  "It's completely undoubted that Covid did affect the mental health of young people...they seem to have recovered back to the pre pandemic trend."
  — Xiaowei Xi, [35:56]

• Sustained Rise in Diagnosable Disorders:
  Probability of a diagnosable mental health disorder in under-16s rose from 1 in 9 (2017) to 1 in 5 (2023); up to 1 in 4 for ages 17–19.

  "When you see the figures, it's really quite, it's almost a gut punch really."
  — Professor Tamsin Ford, [40:20], [40:31]

• Particular Rise in Eating Disorders:

  "A massive increase in the presentation of young people with eating disorders, and mostly very severe."
  — Professor Tamsin Ford, [41:57]

• Some Children Thrived:
  Around a third of students reported being happier during lockdown, especially those who struggled with traditional school environments.

  "One third of school pupils were happier when the schools were closed...”
  — Prof. Tamsin Ford, [42:50]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Tim Harford:
  “So there's likely a group of young children who missed out on some key development because of the lockdown, and many who were basically fine.” [09:26]
• Daisy Christidoulou:
  “When we published these results...people saying, this is an enormous fall. Can it really be right? … we stood by it then and we stand by it now.” [14:17]
• John Andrews:
  “Disadvantaged pupils are three times as likely as other pupils to be persistently absent.” [24:48]
• Jim Dickinson:
  “Nobody collects the statistics on the number of hours that students spend on campus or the number of taught hours...online or in person.” [28:48]
• Xiaowei Xi:
  “The broad answer, I'm afraid is we don't know.” [30:16]
• Professor Tamsin Ford:
  “When you see the figures, it's really quite, it's almost a gut punch really. You know, that's a lot of young people who are really struggling.” [40:20]

Timeline & Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:40] Introduction and overall aims (Tim Harford)
• [02:10] Clinical impact of COVID on children (Dr. Alastair Munro)
• [05:10] Preschoolers’ experience (Prof. Claudine Bowyer Crane)
• [07:09] Drop in Early Years development measures
• [13:38] Learning loss for year 7s (Daisy Christidoulou)
• [14:59] Evidence for recovery by year 9
• [17:50] Access to technology and its impact (Dr. Rebecca Montagu)
• [19:21] Attainment gap widens post-lockdown
• [23:26] Persistent absence rates double (John Andrews)
• [25:32] Suspension rates highest on record
• [26:57] University grade inflation and lack of reliable comparison (Jim Dickinson)
• [29:06] Student experience and mental health at university
• [32:15] Labour market catch-up for lockdown graduates (Xiaowei Xi)
• [35:27] The end of the U-shaped well-being curve (Xiaowei Xi)
• [40:05] Sustained rise in mental health disorders (Prof. Tamsin Ford)
• [42:50] Substantial group of children thrived during lockdown

Conclusion

The episode concludes that, far from there being a single "lockdown generation" scarred in uniform ways, the impact of COVID restrictions on children and young people is varied, highly individual, and shaped by pre-existing factors. Academic recovery in most subjects and for most groups was strong, but persistent inequalities (attainment gap, attendance, mental health issues) have widened. The pandemic acted as an amplifier of existing divides.
Ongoing monitoring and much better data are needed to fully understand the long-term ramifications for future generations.