How extraordinary is Ye Shiwen? WS

Summary

Podcast Summary: More or Less – “How extraordinary is Ye Shiwen?”
BBC Radio 4 | August 4, 2012
Host: Tim Harford
Guests/Contributors: Wesley Stevenson, Dr. Ross Tucker, Professor Reza Norbury

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Overview

This episode investigates the statistics and context behind Chinese swimmer Ye Shiwen’s record-breaking performance at the 2012 London Olympics. Amid allegations and suspicion—particularly claims linking her achievement to doping—the program examines whether Ye’s results are statistically unusual for clean athletes, compares her performance to historical precedents, and explores why some women’s sports records stand out as unattainably high.

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Key Discussion Points

1. Context: Ye Shiwen’s Olympic Performance

• Ye Shiwen, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400m individual medley, dramatically outpacing competitors in the final stretch and breaking the world record.
  • “Ye Shiwen just rolled past Elizabeth Beisel and she won easily. She broke the world record.”—(A, 01:21)
• A U.S. swimming coach (not part of the U.S. team) called her performance “disturbing,” implying suspicion of doping.
  • Ye responded by saying the criticism is “just a case of sour grapes.”

2. Are Her Time Improvements Suspicious?

• Personal Best Improvement:

  • Ye improved her personal best by 5 seconds—a significant leap.
    • “Ye Shiwen is very young, so you’d expect some dramatic improvements.”—(B, 01:40)
    • Ian Thorpe, Australian swimmer, made similar dramatic improvements as a teenager.
    • Stephanie Rice (Australia) improved her record by 6 seconds in 2008; no allegations were made then.

• World Record Margin:

  • Ye broke the world record by over a second.
    • Stephanie Rice previously broke the record by an even wider margin.
    • “It’s impressive, but it’s not that remarkable.”—(B, 02:12)

3. Comparison to Male Swimmers

• Ye’s final 50m was faster than Ryan Lochte’s, who won the men’s equivalent.

  • This is not unprecedented—Lochte was also out-swam by women in prior Olympics.
    • Example: Alessia Filippi swam a faster last leg than Lochte in Beijing 2008.
    • “It’s probably worth pointing out he didn’t actually swim the whole race slower than Ye Shiwen. He raced 23 seconds faster than Ye overall.”—(A&B, 02:49)
  • Dr. Ross Tucker, Sports Science Institute, Cape Town: Comparing the final lap alone is misleading.
    • “She swam it as fast as Lochte, yes, but Lochte didn’t swim it as fast as some of the other men… Analyzing performance and trying to prove doping is such a futile task.”—(C, 03:07)

• Rebecca Adlington’s Final Lap:

  • When Adlington won the 800m title, her last 50m was faster than both Lochte and Ye Shiwen.

4. Was Anything Statistically Exceptional?

• Ross Tucker’s Analysis:

  • Most top competitors’ freestyle splits are 16–20% slower than the world record for that distance; Ye was only 12% off that record, indicating an exceptionally strong finish.
  • “At that level...the final 100 freestyle about 18 to 20% slower. Ye Shiwen was at 12% slower.”—(C, 04:05)

• Threshold Theory & Record Probability:

  • Professor Reza Norbury (Bloomsbury University) used “threshold theory” to estimate likely record progressions.
  • Ye’s time was outside expected boundaries for 90% of previous records, but not impossible.
    • “Based on these 10 measurements… she did it in 4 minutes 28 and 43 hundredths of a second. So, in that sense, you may call that exceptional.”—(C, 05:03)

• Comparison to Usain Bolt:

  • Extraordinary athletes sometimes break statistical expectations—as seen with Bolt’s 100m mens record.

5. Why Suspicion Exists: Historical Context of Doping

• Chinese Swimming’s Tainted Reputation:
  • 32 Chinese swimmers tested positive for drugs in the 1990s; more recent incidents contribute to ongoing doubts.
• Athletics: Women’s Record Perspective:

  • Numerous world records from the 1980s and early 1990s remain unbeaten, many linked to athletes and systems accused or suspected of systematic doping.

    • “The sprint records in particular…the effect of the doping in the 1980s was just to push them beyond the realms of belief.”—(C, 06:35)

  • Example records:

    • Florence Griffith-Joyner’s 100m (10.49s), unattainable compared to recent bests (next fastest: 10.64s in 24 years)
    • Women’s 400m and 800m, largely set by Eastern European athletes; 800m (1:53, 1983) withstands all modern attempts
    • Chinese long-distance records from the 1990s, set by athletes coached under suspicion, are still far ahead of contemporary, presumably clean, athletes.

  • “There are a huge swathe of records that just appear to be out of reach by contemporary athletes who we hope are clean.”—(A, 08:33)

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Quantifying Performance:
  • “Analyzing performance and trying to prove doping is such a futile task.”—Dr. Ross Tucker (C, 03:07)
• On the legacy of drug scandals:
  • “There’s a cloud that’s hung over Chinese swimming ever since 32 of their swimmers tested positive in the 1990s.”—(B, 06:01)
  • “The 400 and 800 meter records are equally as remarkable... both are held by Eastern Europeans from the 1980s, although neither tested positive and both denied doping allegations.”—(B, 07:31)
• On the scope of suspicion:
  • “What we’re saying is, in women’s athletics, there are a huge swathe of records that just appear to be out of reach by contemporary athletes who we hope are clean. There are a lot of questions to raise, but not particularly about Ye Shiwen.”—(A, 08:33)

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Timestamps for Key Sections

• 00:45 — Explanation and breakdown of Ye Shiwen’s race.
• 01:40 — Discussion of “improvement by 5 seconds” in personal best.
• 02:11 — Context for Ye’s margin on the world record.
• 02:32 — Male vs. female swimmer split times analysis.
• 03:07 — Dr. Tucker: Why split time comparisons can mislead.
• 04:05 — Statistical measure: Ye’s final 100m compared to peers.
• 05:03 — Threshold theory: How “exceptional” was the swim?
• 06:01 — Why doping suspicion persists for some countries.
• 06:22–08:33 — Discussion of the athletics’ world records clouded by the history of doping, especially women’s records.

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Conclusion

The episode concludes that although Ye Shiwen’s 2012 Olympic performance was extraordinary and statistically at the edge of what’s expected, it was not without precedent in young, improving athletes. Statistical analysis alone cannot resolve doping suspicions; they must be considered in context. Historically, suspicion lingers due to proven widespread doping, particularly in Chinese swimming and women’s track events of the 1980s and ’90s, leaving today’s exceptional—and clean—performances under extra scrutiny, though nothing specific in Ye’s case stands out as suggesting foul play.

Transcript

[A]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldserveys.com podcasts hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. This week, the program is dominated by a story from the Olympics. Ye Xiuan, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400 meter individual medley in fine style a few days ago. But then the head of the U.S. swimming Coaches association, who incidentally isn't part of the U.S. team, called that performance disturbing and the swimmer was forced to deny that she'd been taking drugs. Well, Wesley Stevenson's here, Wes. Let's just remind ourselves what happened in that race.

[B]

So at first, no one was dominating. So through the butterfly and the backstroke

[A]

stages, then the third stage, the breaststroke, things started to take shape. The American swimmer Elizabeth Beisel started to pull away.

[B]

And no one had really mentioned Yeshuang at this point point.

[A]

Yeah, the commentators had said that, that Beisel had slammed the door on the race.

[B]

Slammed the door. She was that far ahead.

[A]

And then two lengths to go.

[B]

Two lengths to go. As the competitors started swimming freestyle, it looked like this happened. It was extraordinary. Yes, you want just rolled past Elizabeth

[A]

Beisel and she won easily. She broke the world record. So well done. Yes, you won't. Or is there, as this particular US coach has hinted, something more sinister going on? Now, Wes Yeshuan said that the criticism is just a case of sour grape. So let's look at the charges against her. First, she beat her personal best by five seconds.

[B]

Yeah, she did. But you've got to remember Ye Siwan is very young, so you'd expect some dramatic improvements. The Australian swimming legend Ian Thorpe said this week that he beat his personal best by five seconds when he was a teenager. And also if you take Ye's fellow swimmer in the 400 meters individual medley, that's the Australian, Stephanie Rice. She beat her personal best in 2008 by six seconds when she set the world record in the Aussie Olympic trials. And no one shouted drug cheat at her.

[A]

Now, the second issue is that she smashed the world record. She beat it by over a second.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Let's take Stephanie Rice again. When she beat her world record, she beat it by a wider margin back in 2008. So, I mean, it's impressive, but it's not that remarkable.

[A]

Now, the final element in the case against Yeshuan, over the final length, this last 50 metres, she was swimming faster than Ryan Lochte, who won the equivalent men's race.

[B]

Yeah. This comparison with Lochte probably isn't that telling. It's not the first time that Lochte's been slower than a woman over the last leg of that type of race. In Beijing in 2008, when he got the bronze, he was slower than the Italian Alessia Felipe by more than half a second, and she only came fifth.

[A]

And it's probably worth pointing out he didn't actually swim the whole race slower than Ye Shi Huang.

[B]

No, no, absolutely not. I mean, he raced 23 seconds faster than ye overall. I spoke to Dr. Ross Tucker from the Sports Science Institute at the University of Cape Town, and he says the comparison doesn't necessarily mean very much.

[C]

She swam it as fast as Lochte. Yes, but Lochte didn't swim it as fast as some of the other men in that same race. And so therefore his performance compared to the best men in that race for that leg was maybe not as impressive. Other people are saying. Ah, but hang on. If you're going to look at Yi's final lap, then we must also look at Rebecca Adlington when she won the 800 meter title because she was even faster. So the point is, analyzing performance and trying to prove doping is such a futile task.

[B]

And Rebecca Adlington was, of course, the British 400 and 800 meter gold medalist from Beijing and swam faster than both Lochte and Yeshuan in the final leg of her 800 metre race at the World Championships last year.

[A]

So we've covered all of these charges, all of these allegations, and actually what we're saying is it was impressive, but there's nothing about it that's really suspicious. Was there anything about the race that raised suspicions?

[B]

Well, there are a couple of things that stick out. Now, Ross Tucker had this observation.

[C]

I worked out that most of the competitors at that level are doing the freestyle about 16 to 20% slower than the equivalent world record for the leg in the last World Championships, the winner of the individual medley, and in fact, the top five, are doing the final 100 freestyle about 18 to 20% slower than the 100 freestyle world record, whereas Yi Shiwen was at 12% slower.

[A]

Okay, so in that sense, it was an exceptional performance.

[B]

Yes. And there's another measure you can look at as well. Reza Nourbury is a maths professor at Bloomsbury University in Pennsylvania in the usa. He's applied something called threshold theory to world records in the past. Now, what he does is to take the previous best performances and the amount of time that elapses between them and establishes what records might be possible with a 90% confidence. Now, we gave him the data for the best times in the 400 meters individual medley before Yeshuan's race, and he came up with this estimate.

[C]

Based on these 10 measurements that you sent me, the lower band should be 4 minutes 29 seconds and 100th of seconds. She did it in 4 minutes 28 seconds and 40 three hundredths of seconds. So in that sense you may call that exceptional.

[A]

So this race was extraordinary. But then sometimes we do get extraordinary athletes.

[B]

Yes. And when Professor Nubri ran the data on the men's 100 meters before Usain Bolt first broke his record, he said that with 90% confidence that the next record wouldn't exceed 9.62 seconds. Of course, now we know that Bolt's record stands at 9.58 seconds. So you're right, we sometimes get extraordinary athletes. And this is why Ross Tucker says that while we should ask questions, we should be careful about what we assume from the performance.

[A]

I suppose you can understand why people are suspicious.

[B]

Yes. I mean, there's a cloud that's hung over Chinese swimming ever since 32 of their swimmers tested positive in the 1990s. And only seven months ago, another teenage swimmer tested positive for the drug epo. And the reason that people are asking questions is that they failed to in the past when there've been other drug problems. And it's not just true of swimming.

[C]

No.

[A]

There's athletics, for example.

[B]

Well, yeah, I mean, athletics is a great example, particularly women's athletics. We know that there was a huge problem with drugs in the 1980s and this means there's a problem with, with a lot of the records set in that era. As Ross Tucker says, it's unlikely they'll ever be broken.

[C]

The problem now is that the sprint records in particular, 100, 200, 400, the 800 meter world record is the oldest one on the books. It's 1983, was set by a Czech athlete, Jamila Kratos Wilova. And the reality is that no female is coming close to them. We just don't see 800 meter woman running in the range of 153 anymore. So the female records are largely out of bounds or out of play because the effect of the doping in the 1980s was just to push them beyond the realms of sort of belief.

[B]

Florence Griffiths Joyner, who was dogged by allegations of doping up until her premature death at the age of 38, her 100 meter record is 10.49. The closest anyone has got to that in the 24 years since is 10.64 seconds, which is a huge gap in sprinting terms.

[A]

And her 200 meter speed is amazing too.

[B]

Yes, it's more than 3/10 of a second faster than the current fastest time set by Alison Felix last month. That was a time of 21.69 seconds. The 400 and 800 meter records are equally as remarkable in terms of how far ahead they are of the current athletes performances. I mean, both are held by Eastern Europeans who were competing in the 1980s, although neither tested positive for drugs and both are denied doping allegations. The 1500 meters is interesting too. This record is held by a Chinese athlete who was coached by the controversial Chinese coach Ma Junren. If you compare the record to the nearest non controversial time, the Chinese runner is five seconds ahead. Other athletes Ma coached were banned in the 1990s after positive drugs tests, although not this particular record holder. Another Chinese athlete from this era was Wang Junjiai also holds the 3,000 meters and 10,000 meters records. And again, they're a long way ahead of the current athlete's performances too, although again, she's always denied using drugs.

[A]

So what we're saying is in women's athletics there are a huge swathe of records that just appear to be completely out of reach by contemporary athletes who we hope are clean. There are a lot of questions to raise, but not particularly about yixiwen. Thank you Wes. And that's all we have time for this week. Please keep your questions, comments and suggestions coming in to more or lessbc.co.uk. and we have a brand new website with print versions of our best stories. It's at BBC.co.uk more or less. Please check it out and perhaps subscribe to our chart topping podcast. Until next week, goodbye.

[B]

More or Less was presented by Tim

[A]

Harford, the Financial Times undercover economist.

[B]

The producer was Richard Knight and the editor was Richard Varden.

[A]

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