How long will you live?

Summary

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More or Less — "How long will you live?" (BBC Radio 4, June 29, 2013)

Overview

This episode of More or Less explores the concept of life expectancy—how it’s calculated, what’s driving changes worldwide, and why individual lifespans can differ from the average. Ruth Alexander leads an engaging, number-driven discussion with experts including Colin Mathers (World Health Organization), Professor James Vaupel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), and Richard Willets (longevity researcher), unpacking recent trends, the nuances behind the numbers, and what the future may hold.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Global Trends in Life Expectancy

• Huge Gains Over Two Decades

  • Colin Mathers: Global average life expectancy increased by six years from 1990 to 2010, with notable improvements in Africa, Asia, and the Eastern Mediterranean ([00:39]).
  • Notable Quote:

    "Our estimates of global life expectancy from 1990 until around 2010 suggest that there's been a six year increase in life expectancy at the global average level."
    — Colin Mathers ([00:39])

• Regional Improvements & Outliers

  • Asia and Eastern Mediterranean: +7 years each ([01:03])
  • Africa: +6 years overall, but with significant national differences due to factors like HIV ([01:28])
    • E.g., South Africa down by 5 years; Nigeria up by 7 years, but still below South Africa's level

Life Expectancy in High-Income Countries

• Consistent Rise Among the Wealthy
  • Professor James Vaupel describes a steady, almost linear increase:

    "Life expectancy has been increasing in the past in countries doing well by about two and a half years per decade—that's about three months per year. So it’s really quite remarkable, six hours per day."
    — Prof. James Vaupel ([02:49])

  • Improvements began with reductions in child/maternal deaths and continued with reduced smoking rates ([02:59])

What Do Averages Really Mean?

• Personalizing Life Expectancy

  • Ben Carter, 34¾, examines his future:
    • At birth (1978): average UK male life expectancy was ~70 years ([03:36])
    • Now, someone his age is expected to live to 79 years ([03:51])
    • Factoring in future improvements: up to 86 years ([03:56])

• Individual Habits Matter

  • Professor Vaupel produces a tailored estimate, accounting for healthy lifestyle, adjusting Ben’s projected lifespan up by four or five years ([04:25])

    "You were in good health and had good health habits, so I adjusted your life expectancy to increase by four or five years."
    — Prof. James Vaupel ([04:25])

    • Resulting in a mean expectation of around 94 years for Ben ([04:46])

• Mean, Median, and Mode Explained

  • Median (middle value): less affected by outlier events; for men Ben’s age, the median is 97 years ([05:28])
  • Mode (most common age at death): likely a bit higher; "the single most likely life span is probably something like 100" ([05:52])

    "The most likely age of death, that's about three years higher than the median."
    — Prof. James Vaupel ([05:52])

  • Memorable exchange:

    Ruth Alexander: "So the short answer to how long you're going to live is maybe to 70 or 86, or possibly, if current trends continue, 100."
    — ([06:04])

Will Life Expectancy Keep Rising?

• Possible Plateau in High-Income Countries

  • Some evidence of slowing progress ([06:23])
  • Reductions in smoking/cardiovascular disease may have "saturated" ([06:23])
  • Rising obesity could counteract gains ([06:23])

    "They may continue to be improvements or they may start to level out."
    — Colin Mathers ([07:11])

• A Census Correction & Its Implications

  • Richard Willets: UK's 2011 census revealed 30,000 fewer people in their 90s than previously thought—mainly due to overestimation and data errors in prior estimates ([07:30])

    "They haven't gone anywhere. They never existed."
    — Richard Willets ([07:49])

  • Similar revisions found in the US ([08:10])

• Projection: Slower Growth in Life Expectancy

  • Gains might slow from 2.5 years per decade to as little as one year per decade in high-income nations ([08:18])

    "It's not inconceivable that we move... to one in which it takes five, six, seven, eight years perhaps to add that extra year of life expectancy."
    — Richard Willets ([08:18])

• Outlook for Developing Regions

  • Major life expectancy increases still ongoing for low- and middle-income countries ([08:35])
  • High-income slow-down may not apply globally

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• "Six hours per day…life expectancy is going up that fast."
  — Prof. James Vaupel ([02:49])

• "If two of them walked out of the building and got knocked over by a bus, it would bring the simple average down, but with the median, we wouldn't be interested in the ones who had bad luck."
  — Ben Carter ([04:58])

• "Thousands of elderly people in the UK are missing. No one realised until Richard Willets... began to peruse the 2011 census."
  — Ruth Alexander ([07:11])

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Important Timestamps

• 00:39-01:28: Global life expectancy trends and regional snapshots
• 02:49-03:36: Increase of life expectancy in high-income countries; underlying societal improvements
• 03:36-04:46: Ben Carter personalizes life expectancy; difference between historical, current, and projected numbers
• 04:58-06:04: Explaining mean, median, and mode; most likely age of death
• 06:23-07:11: Threats to continued progress in wealthy countries
• 07:30-08:35: UK census revision—are we overestimating longevity?
• 08:18-08:35: Possible future slow-down in life expectancy gains

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Tone and Language

The episode maintains a conversational, curious tone—using real-world examples and friendly banter (e.g., "never mind her life expectancy" and jokes about Ben’s "BBC canteen habit")—while anchored by clear statistical explanations and expert interviews.

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Conclusion

More or Less underscores that while humanity has seen extraordinary improvements in life expectancy, especially in low- and middle-income countries, the story is nuanced. High-income countries may see those gains slow, partly as a result of biological, societal, and even statistical corrections. For individual listeners, understanding averages—and the factors that can skew them—is just as important as knowing the numbers themselves.

Transcript

[BBC Announcer]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldserveys.com podcasts

[Ruth Alexander]

this is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service. Hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander. This week we consider the small subject of how long you might live. There's been a tremendous increase in life expectancy around the world over the past 20 years or so. Colin Mathers from the World Health Organisation has been studying it.

[Colin Mathers]

Our estimates of global life expectancy from 1990 until around 2010 suggest that there's been a six year increase in life expectancy at the global average level. That reflects substantial improvements in Africa, Asia and to a somewhat lesser extent in Latin America, but also in the Eastern Mediterranean regions.

[Ruth Alexander]

Life expectancy at birth in Asia has increased by about seven years in the past 20. Improved living conditions, access to healthcare and efforts to vaccinate children have all played their part. The same is true of the Eastern Mediterranean region, where life expectancy again has increased by about seven years. Africa is also a success story, but its average life expectancy growth hides individual tales of tragedy.

[Colin Mathers]

Colin Mathers over the last 20 years, overall African life expectancy has gone up by around six years. So it's close to the world average, but it's at a lower level. So it's gone from about 50 years in 1990 to 56 years. Now. Going against this trend, there are a number of African countries where life expectancy has decreased, largely due to the effect of the HIV epidemic. In South Africa, for example, over the last 20 years, life expectancy has decreased five years. Nigeria, on the other hand, life expectancy was much lower in 1990 at 46 years. There were very high levels of child and adult mortality and that has improved to 53 years. So that's a seven year increase for Nigeria compared to a five year decrease for South Africa. But at the same time, Nigerian life expectancy now is still lower than South African life expectancies.

[Ruth Alexander]

Colin Mathers from the World Health Organization. Now we've been talking about low and middle income countries. You perhaps aren't surprised that these gains have been seen when there's been so much room for improvement in health in these countries. But this story of huge leaps in life expectancy has also been happening in the world's richest countries. Professor James Waupl, director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany, has been tracking it.

[Professor James Waupl]

Life expectancy has been increasing in the past in countries doing well by about two and a half years per decade. And two and a half years per decade, that's about three months per year. So it's really quite remarkable, six hours per day.

[Ruth Alexander]

Amazingly, this trend has been constant over the past 200 years. Among the world's most successful countries. First child and maternal mortality started improving. Then from the 1950s, smoking rates began to drop. But global and regional averages can only tell you so much. We what does it mean for an individual? Now? You know it's indelicate to ask a woman to reveal her age, never mind her life expectancy. So my gentleman colleague, Ben Carter, aged 34 and three quarters, has stepped forward to work out his life expectancy. Ben, how long have you gone?

[Ben Carter]

Well, the thing with life expectancy is there are a lot of ways to measure it. When I was born 34 years ago in 1978, the average man in the UK lived until he was almost 70. Now, a 34 year old is expected to live until he's 79 years old.

[Ruth Alexander]

But that doesn't take into account the fact that life expectancy may continue to improve in the future.

[Ben Carter]

Yes. So by the time I'm elderly, it's predicted that things will have improved further and I should by then expect to live until I'm 86.

[Ruth Alexander]

But actuarial tables which calculate this kind of thing, they're all about averages, aren't they? They won't take into account your famously excellent eating habits and all that exercise you do.

[Ben Carter]

Exactly. So I've managed to get a more individually tailored life expectancy from Professor James Valpel, who, as we mentioned, has his own model for working this out.

[Professor James Waupl]

So we use that as the basis for projecting someone born 34 years ago might live on average, and that's the 89.6. And then I took into account the fact that you were in good health and had good health habits, so I adjusted your life expectancy to increase it by four or five years. Based on your good health?

[Ruth Alexander]

Based on your good health. Professor Falpel doesn't know about your BBC canteen habit then, does he?

[Ben Carter]

No, not unless anyone's told him. So Professor Valpel there says a man my age will on average live to 94. Now, that's just a simple average or the mean.

[Ruth Alexander]

Yeah, there are other types of average we sometimes find more useful.

[Ben Carter]

Yes. So the median is the average where you look at the middle value. Take this example. Imagine we had 99 men my age in this room and we decided to follow their progress over the rest of the century. If two of them walked out of the building and got knocked over by a bus. It would bring the simple average down, but with the median, we wouldn't be interested in the ones who had bad luck. But what happened to the 50th man, the one in the middle? According to Professor Valpel, he would live to 97.

[Ruth Alexander]

However, there's another average, isn't there, the mode, which is the most common value?

[Ben Carter]

Yes. In our example, the mode would be the age with the most number of deaths. The professor's figures suggest half of our group of men would die before our middle man at 97 and half after. Clearly, the ones living past 97 can't have much longer to go, so we would expect the most common year of death to be even older than 97.

[Professor James Waupl]

Professor Valpel, the most likely age of death, that's about three years higher than the median. So for you, the single most likely life span is probably something like 100.

[Ruth Alexander]

So the short answer to how long you're going to live is maybe to

[Ben Carter]

70 or 86, or possibly, if current trends continue, 100.

[Ruth Alexander]

Good luck. But will current trends continue? Here's Colin Mathers again from the World Health Organization.

[Colin Mathers]

The last couple of years on that graph, there's a possible slowdown, but it's hard to tell. We need a few more years of data to see. It's possible that some of the reductions in particularly cardiovascular disease associated with reductions in smoking in control of blood pressure particularly, have reached a saturation point. In Australia or California, for example, smoking rates are quite low. They could go lower, but it may not have much more impact on death rates. Perhaps control of cholesterol or blood sugar might kick in and start to further improve life expectancy. On the other hand, we're seeing increasing levels of obesity, so it's hard to tell. There may continue to be improvements or they may start to level out.

[Ruth Alexander]

There is another piece of evidence that points to a potential end to these amazing life expectancy gains in the world's high income countries. And that's that thousands of elderly people in the UK are missing. No one realised until Richard Willerts, an expert in longevity, began to peruse the 2011 census.

[Richard Willerts]

There were 30,000 fewer people aged in their 90s than previously believed. And that was about 15% fewer men, 5% fewer females. There are also fewer centenarians than previously believed. The number of female centenarians was down by about 10%.

[Ruth Alexander]

Where have they all gone?

[Richard Willerts]

They haven't gone anywhere. They never existed. I think when I kind of looked into why this may have happened. It sort of quickly became apparent that previous estimates of the numbers of people alive at different ages were subject to considerable uncertainty because of the approach that's taken to produce those estimates.

[Ruth Alexander]

And a similar thing happened in the United States. So could this herald then a change in the trend for rapidly increasing life expectancy?

[Richard Willerts]

I think it's not inconceivable that we move from a situation where we're adding an extra year of life expectancy every three or maybe four years to one in which it takes five, six, seven, eight years perhaps to add that extra year of life expectancy.

[Ruth Alexander]

Richard Willits from Insurance company Partnership so the extra two and a half years per decade for the world's richest countries could fall to closer to one year. But the story of fast increasing life expectancy isn't over for the world's low and middle income countries. In fact, it's probably just beginning. A final thanks to Paul Sweeting, loyal listener and professor of Actuarial Science at the University of Kent in the uk, who's helped us with some of our calculations. If there are any numbers you'd like us to take a closer look at, do email us. Our address is more or lessbc.co.uk and you can sign up for a free download of our programmes at our website, bbcworldservice.com morealless

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