How old is your dog?

Summary

More or Less – "How old is your dog?"

BBC Radio 4 | Host: Ruth Alexander | Air date: May 13, 2013

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Overview

This episode of More or Less investigates the often-cited notion of football teams being "one-man teams" by analyzing how dependent Premier League teams are on their leading goal scorers. The episode also discusses the misuse of statistics in court cases, highlighting two high-profile cases where flawed statistical reasoning played a crucial role. The hosts use data-driven approaches and engaging examples to debunk myths and clarify the real impact behind "headline" numbers.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Are Premier League teams really ‘one-man teams’?

• Introduction & Methodology
  Ruth Alexander and Ben Carter scrutinize the claim that some football teams, notably Manchester United, are overly dependent on star players. Ruth introduces her methodology for measuring this reliance:

  "I've created an alternative Premier League table which takes out all the points earned by the goals scored by each club's leading scorer." (01:07)

• Case Study: Manchester United & Robin Van Persie

  • Ruth points out that even if Van Persie hadn’t scored any goals, United would still top the table, but by a much smaller margin.
  • Adjusted league table removes each team’s top scorer's goals, showing how points tallies change.

• Methodological Details

  • If both teams' top scorers score in the same match, their contributions "cancel each other out" (01:41).
  • Notable example: If Luis Suarez's hat trick is removed from a game Liverpool won 5–2 against Norwich, the result becomes a draw, unless Norwich's leading scorer's goal is similarly discounted.

• Findings

  • United remains top, but Arsenal moves to second, leveling the field among top teams (02:04).
  • Van Persie scored 30% of United's goals, earning 23% of their total points; other top clubs spread goals more evenly (02:23).

• Tottenham Hotspur & The Gareth Bale Effect

  • Bale's 18 goals earned Tottenham 15 points; without him, they’d be sixth and out of Champions League contention (02:46).
  • Alistair Tweedale of WhoScored.com argues that Moussa Dembélé may be even more crucial due to Tottenham’s higher win percentage with him on the field:

    "Whilst Bale is the one scoring the goals that win the games, there's an argument that Dembele is as important, if not more important, to Tottenham." (03:09)

• Other Notable Players

  • Luis Suarez’s goals are vital but Liverpool would still place seventh without them (03:46).
  • Christian Benteke stands out:

    "Having scored 42% of his team's goals, which have earned 38% of the points, Christian Benteke has done all he can to keep Aston Villa in the Premier League." (04:03)

    • Also highlighted by Tweedale as the most valuable player due to the financial impact of relegation (04:19).

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2. The Misuse of Statistics in Courtrooms

• Case Study 1: The Meredith Kercher Case

  • Forensic evidence—a knife with a trace of Kercher’s DNA—was considered unreliable, and the court refused to retest.
  • Coralie Colmez, author of "Maths on Trial," explains the flaw in this reasoning:

    "If you have an unreliable test, you do it again is just as unreliable, but you get the same answer, then you can be a lot more certain of that answer." (05:36)

  • Example: Successive coin tosses increase certainty of bias with repeated results (06:03).
  • Implication: Retesting DNA could have strengthened or weakened the case (06:28–06:46).

• Case Study 2: Lucia de Berk, Dutch Nurse

  • Convicted on statistics claiming extreme unlikelihood (odds of 342 million to one) in being present at patient deaths.
  • Later, independent statistical analysis by Dr. Metta Deneu and Tom Dirksen recalculated the odds after removing cases de Berk wasn’t present for, undermining the prosecution’s argument (07:59).
  • Coralie Colmez on the statistical misunderstanding:

    "What the brother and sister team did is they struck off all the ones that she had proven that she wasn't even there for, and they recalculated the probability." (07:59)

  • Broader point: With a quarter-million nurses in the Netherlands, some unusual "clusters" are statistically inevitable; de Berk was acquitted in 2010 (08:18).
  • Colmez urges greater statistical literacy for judges and juries, starting from school maths (08:18).

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• "I've created an alternative Premier League table which takes out all the points earned by the goals scored by each club's leading scorer." – Ruth Alexander (01:07)
• "Manchester United might not be a one man team, but they are more heavily dependent on one man than at Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City." – Ben Carter (02:15)
• "When [Dembélé] does play, Tottenham have won 67% of their games compared to 29% without him..." – Alistair Tweedale (03:09)
• "If you have an unreliable test, you do it again is just as unreliable, but you get the same answer, then you can be a lot more certain of that answer." – Coralie Colmez (05:36)
• "One important factor was that Ms. De Bourke had been accused of causing some deaths which she had later managed to prove couldn't have involved her because she hadn't been present." – Coralie Colmez (07:59)
• "With a quarter of a million nurses in the Netherlands, so you'd expect a couple of hundred to be involved in a set of circumstances similar to those of Lucia de Bourke." – Coralie Colmez (08:18)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Premier League ‘One-Man Team’ Methodology – [01:07]
• Effect of Removing Top Scorers on Team Standings – [02:04]
• Statistical Value of Gareth Bale vs. Moussa Dembélé – [03:09]
• Importance (or not) of Luis Suarez’s Goals for Liverpool – [03:46]
• Christian Benteke’s Value to Aston Villa – [04:03–04:19]
• Forensic Statistics in the Meredith Kercher Case – [05:36–06:46]
• Lucia de Berk Case and Statistical Fallacies – [07:59–08:18]

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Tone and Style

The tone is analytical, clear, and mildly irreverent, with moments of dry wit (e.g., "my biting satire" – [03:43]) and a focus on making statistical reasoning accessible to non-experts. The hosts and guests emphasize the importance of evidence-based conclusions while challenging lazy or misleading uses of statistics.

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Conclusion

This episode of More or Less deconstructs the "one-man team" narrative in football by showing, with careful statistical analysis, which teams are most reliant on star players and why that matters. It also highlights the real-world consequences of statistical misunderstandings in legal contexts. Throughout, the show demonstrates the importance of looking beyond surface numbers and urges statistical literacy in all areas of public life.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander and here's Ben Carter. Football fans are often accusing rival sides of being one man teams. The implication being that the club spent vast sums of money on one star player who drives the team up the table. But is there really anything in this? Ben, you're a Manchester United fan. Your side were a one man team this season, weren't they? No, but that's not what the manager of your big rivals, Manchester City reckons.

[C]

True.

[A]

At the beginning of the season, Roberto Mancini said we would win the title back because we'd sign striker Robin Van Persie from Arsenal.

[B]

And you have indeed just won the league.

[A]

Yes, van Persie scored 24 goals in all and it was his hat trick that clinchinated the title. But you know, United would still be top of the table even if Van Persie hadn't scored any goals.

[B]

But I think a Man United fan would say that, wouldn't you?

[A]

Well, yes, but this is more or less. I have methodology. I've created an alternative Premier League table which takes out all the points earned by the goals scored by each club's leading scorer. For example, if you took away Robin Van Persie's three goals against Aston Villa, the game would have ended up as a 00 draw and United would have earned one point rather than three. Meaning Van Persie's net contribution was two points. But it's unfair to do it just for Man United. So I've done it for the leading scorer in every Premier League team.

[B]

So what do you do when two teams top scorers score in the same game?

[A]

Well, if they both score once, they cancel each other out. But if we take the game where Liverpool beat Norwich 5 2, Luis Suarez scored a hat trick, so if you take his goals out, the game looks like a draw.

[B]

But.

[A]

But Norwich's leading goal scorer, Grant Holt scored one goal for his side. So in effect Liverpool would have won the game without Suarez's goals.

[B]

So what does your alternative league table look like then?

[A]

Well, of course United are still top of the league, but only by seven points. Arsenal move up to second position, leaving both Manchester City and Chelsea just one point behind.

[B]

So Manchester United might not be a one man team, but they are more heavily dependent on one man than at Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.

[A]

Yes, Van Persie has scored 30% of Manchester United's goals and those goals have earned his team 23% of their overall points tally. Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City spread their goals around a lot more and as a result, they are a lot closer to United in my table than in the real one.

[B]

What about Tottenham? Surely they're a one man team. I mean, Gareth Bale has done amazingly well for them this year.

[A]

He's the favourite for all the awards and understandably so. But Belle's 18 goals have earned Tottenham 15 points and without him they'd be in sixth position and 11 points away from a Champions League place. But Alistair Tweedale, editor at statistics website WhoScored.com says that despite Belle being at the top of his website's player ratings, there is a man who's arguably more

[C]

important to spurs cause Moussa Dembele. When he does play, Tottenham have won 67% of their games compared to 29% without him. Those are both respectively bigger and smaller values than with and without Bale. So whilst Bale is the one scoring the goals that win the games, there's an argument that Dembele is as important, if not more important, to Tottenham.

[B]

Of course, one man who won't be making a contribution for his team for the rest of this season or for the first six games of next season is Luis Suarez.

[A]

Ruth, what's with the music?

[B]

Oh, that's my biting satire.

[A]

Right, okay, well, if you take out Suarez's goals and the points they earned Liverpool, they'd be exactly where they are now, in seventh position.

[B]

So Suarez's goals weren't as important as people might think. But come on, Ben, statistically, who is the Premier League's most valuable player?

[A]

Well, he plays for a team who may still end up getting relegated. But having scored 42% of his team's goals, which have earned 38% of the points, Christian Benteke has done all he can to keep Aston Villa in the Premier League. Alistair Tweedale agrees.

[C]

Christian Benteke would be the most valuable player for me just because of the huge financial implications of getting relegated. And the difference for Aston Villa is just that they will be in the Premier League next season, probably in no small part down to Christian Benteke. And without him, I don't think they

[B]

would be Statman Alastair Tweedale from WhoScored.com and thanks Ben. We'll leave you to get back to your spreadsheet now. The murder of British exchange student Meredith Kircher in Italy in 2007 made headlines around the world. Her housemate, US student Amanda Knox, and Amanda's Ex boyfriend Raffaele Solicito have recently had their acquittals for the killing overturned and now face a rerun of their appeal. They'd been initially convicted of her murder alongside a local man, but were later freed on appeal, largely after doubts were raised about the forensic evidence against them. One of the key pieces of forensic evidence that had helped to convict them was a kitchen knife found in Mr. Sollecito's kitchen, which was said to have Ms. Kircher's DNA on the blade. But the DNA sample was tiny and the appeal judge thought it was too unreliable a piece of evidence. He refused to have it tested again, as suggested by a forensic scientist. But this was a mistake. According to author of Maths on Trial,

[D]

Coralie Colmes, his justification for that was that just repeating this unreliable test wouldn't make the answer any more reliable. The thing with statistics and probability is that people feel like it's quite intuitive in that, okay, this is unreliable, so it's never going to be more reliable. But actually the mathematics tells you that if you have an unreliable test, you do it again is just as unreliable, but you get the same answer, then you can be a lot more certain of that answer.

[B]

So it helps here to think about how to test whether a coin is biased. You toss it 10 times and get nine heads and one tail. Pretty suspicious, but you couldn't say it was biased beyond all reasonable doubt. You toss it another 10 times and get eight heads and two tails. Considering the two tests together, it now looks very likely the coin is biased. You've tossed it 20 times and got heads 17 times.

[D]

What this means in the case of the knife in the murder is that if it were tested again and once again the DNA was Meredith's profile, we could be a lot more certain that the DNA on the knife is indeed Meredith's.

[B]

And if the knife were tested again and the DNA profile didn't match Meredith

[D]

Kircher's, that would be very good news for Amanda and Raffaele. And that would mean that this major piece of evidence against them would be discredited.

[B]

In Coralie Colmes view, this isn't a one off, she says numbers get used and abused in courtrooms all the time. And more use should be made of proper mathematical and statistics experts. One recent example saw a Dutch nurse, Lucia de Bourke, sentenced to life for the murders of seven patients and the attempted murders of another three. She'd been present at the deaths and resuscitations of an unusually large number of patients. This there was an investigation And a statistician said the odds were 342 million to one that it was just a coincidence she'd been on duty when all the incidents occurred. To prison Lucia de Bourgh went, and there she might have stayed if it hadn't been for the amateur statistical sleuthing of a Dr. Mette Deneu. Dirksen had become suspicious of the probability and reasoning used in the case and along with her brother Tom, began a campaign to prove a miscarriage of justice had occurred. One important factor was that Ms. De Bourke had been accused of causing some deaths which she had later managed to prove couldn't have involved her because she hadn't been present.

[D]

Coralie Colmes the deaths were just forgotten about in the trial and never spoken of again. But they never recalculated the probabilities that they had calculated in the very beginning. What the brother and sister team did is they struck off all the ones that she had proven that she wasn't even there for, and they recalculated the probability.

[B]

The probability of her being present for all the unexplained deaths was still enough to raise questions. But if you consider the number of nurses at work in the Netherlands, you'd expect to see some unusual looking but innocent clusters of unexplained deaths on some of their watches. Coralie Colmers says there are a quarter of a million nurses in the Netherlands, so you'd expect a couple of hundred to be involved in a set of circumstances similar to those of Lucia de Bourke. She she was acquitted in April 2010. To prevent more mathematical miscarriages of justice, Coralie Colmers says we need to have better educated judges and juries and that that begins in the maths classroom. If there are any numbers you'd like us to take a closer look at, do email us. Our address is more or lessbc.co.uk and you can sign up for our free Download at our bbcworldservice.com MoreOrless

[D]

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[A]

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