Investigating crime statistics

Summary

Podcast Summary: More or Less – Investigating Crime Statistics

Host: BBC Radio 4
Episode Date: September 17, 2012
Main Host: Ruth Alexander (with contributions from Tim Harford)
Guests: Clara Sellin (National Council for Crime Prevention, Sweden), Enrico Bisogno (Statistician, United Nations), Charlotte Pritchard (More or Less contributor)
Episode Theme: Debunking and clarifying crime statistics as used in political debate, media, and daily life.

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Episode Overview

This episode of "More or Less" explores how crime statistics—particularly rape, kidnapping, and murder rates—can be misleading when compared across countries. The team investigates claims about Sweden’s rates of rape and convictions, kidnapping capitals, and how even murder rates can be unreliable internationally. In the second half, they take a listener’s question about medal-winning odds at the Olympics versus Paralympics and crunch the numbers.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. International Comparisons of Crime Statistics

Sweden's Rape Statistics in the Spotlight (00:45–03:09)

• Claim: Sweden has the highest rape rate and the lowest prosecution rate in Europe, commonly cited in discussions involving Julian Assange.
• Fact-check:
  • Sweden does record one of the highest rates of reported rapes in Europe (63 per 100,000 inhabitants), much higher than neighbors.
  • Clara Sellin (01:38):

    "You can never compare police records on these crimes between countries..."

  • Explanation:
    • Swedish police record every event of sexual violence separately (e.g., multiple instances in an ongoing case are all counted).
    • Many other countries would count such a scenario as a single incident.
  • Reporting has almost tripled in seven years (from 2,200 in 2003 to 6,000 in 2010).
  • Clara Sellin (02:38):

    "The major explanation... is that people are more willing to go to the police."

    • Broader legal definitions since 2005 now include cases where the victim was asleep or intoxicated.
    • Societal trends (online encounters, increased alcohol use) may play a minor role.

Problems with Comparing Rape Statistics Across Countries (03:09–04:16)

• Only the "tip of the iceberg" is visible in official statistics; in some countries, as few as 1 in 10 rapes are reported.

• Underreporting and inconsistent categorization are rampant worldwide.

• Notable disparity: some countries have near-zero figures (e.g., Hong Kong, Mongolia), which is not an accurate reflection of reality.

• Enrico Bisogno (04:16):

  "We often present the situation as a kind of iceberg where... what we can see is just the tip."

• Amnesty International and UN surveys reinforce that official statistics are incomplete and misleading—some countries don’t submit figures at all.

Conviction and Prosecution Rates (04:30–05:38)

• Allegation: Sweden has the lowest prosecution rate in Europe.

  • The method used (convictions divided by reports) is problematic, as one person may be responsible for multiple offenses.

  • By the UN measure (convictions per 100,000), Sweden has one of the highest rape conviction rates in Europe, only behind Russia.

    • 3.7 convictions per 100,000 population in 2010.

  • The high reporting rate in Sweden means a smaller proportion of cases result in conviction, but the actual number of convictions per capita is high.

  • Host:

    "By that measure, Sweden actually has the highest number of convictions per capita in Europe, bar Russia." (05:19)

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2. Kidnap Capital of the World (05:38–06:21)

• Question: Which two countries have the highest reported kidnapping rates?

  • Answer: Australia and Canada, not countries stereotypically associated with kidnapping.

    • This is because these countries include child custody disputes in kidnapping statistics.

    • Canada and Australia have rates over 10 times higher than Mexico or Colombia.

    • Enrico Bisogno (05:38):

      "You might be surprised... the two countries with the highest level of kidnapping are... Canada and ... Australia."

• Takeaway: Definition and categorization of crime dramatically affect reported rates.

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3. International Murder Rate Comparisons (06:21–06:41)

• Even murder rates aren’t straightforward:

  • Definitions of homicide/manslaughter vary by country.

  • Some countries separate out specific types of killings (e.g., dowry deaths).

  • Quality of healthcare can affect survival rates, thus distorting murder statistics.

    • Enrico Bisogno (06:21):

      "If I punch somebody and then the person eventually dies, some countries can consider it as intentional murder, others as manslaughter..."

  • Comparing developed and less developed countries is further complicated by healthcare disparities.

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4. Listener Question: Paralympic vs Olympic Medal Odds (07:23–08:53)

• Listener’s Question: Is it easier to win a Paralympic gold medal than an Olympic one, given the number of events and medals?

• Charlotte Pritchard Crunches the Numbers:

  • Twice as many athletes compete in the Olympics versus the Paralympics (11,000 vs 4,500).

  • Paralympics have a third more events (about 1,500 vs 961 for Olympics), due to multiple classification-based medals in each event.

  • More Olympians win medals (1,800 vs 1,400 for Paralympians) because of more team events in the Olympics, but more Paralympians proportionally receive a medal.

  • Key Findings:

    • 32% of Paralympians went home with a medal, compared to 16% of Olympians.
    • Three times as many Paralympians (372) won more than one medal.
    • Charlotte Pritchard (08:34):

      "At these games, proportionately speaking, more Paralympians won medals than Olympians: 32% of Paralympians won medals, compared to 16% of Olympians."

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Highlighted Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Clara Sellin (01:38):

  "You can never compare police records on these crimes between different countries because the systems are not comparable at all."

• Enrico Bisogno (04:16):

  "We often present the situation as a kind of an iceberg where really what we can see is just the tip."

• Host (05:19):

  "By that measure, Sweden actually has the highest number of convictions per capita in Europe, bar Russia."

• Enrico Bisogno (05:38):

  "You might be surprised that based on reported crime, the two countries with the highest level of kidnapping are... Canada and ... Australia."

• Host (06:41):

  "...comparison of murder rates between developed and less developed countries is to some unknown degree complicated by the fact that you're more likely to survive an attack in a place with good health care."

• Charlotte Pritchard (08:34):

  "Proportionately speaking, more Paralympians won medals than Olympians, 32% of Paralympians won medals, compared to 16% of Olympians."

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 0:45–2:15 – Dissecting Sweden's rape statistics and international comparability
• 2:15–3:09 – Reasons for Sweden’s rising reports: legal and social shifts
• 3:09–4:30 – Global reporting disparities, the “iceberg” problem
• 4:30–5:38 – How conviction data can mislead; actual conviction rates
• 5:38–6:21 – Kidnapping statistics and their distortions
• 6:21–6:41 – Pitfalls of comparing international murder statistics
• 7:23–8:53 – Olympics vs. Paralympics: Medal-winning probabilities

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Takeaways

• Crime statistics are deeply sensitive to how crimes are defined, recorded, and reported in different countries.
• Sweden’s high reported rape rate is largely due to reporting practices and legislative changes; not necessarily indicative of more crime.
• Countries with high kidnapping rates (Canada, Australia) demonstrate how non-obvious definitions can skew data.
• Even murder rates, seemingly straightforward, can mislead due to legal definitions and healthcare quality.
• In the 2012 Games, a greater proportion of Paralympians won medals than Olympians, due to event structure and participant numbers.

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For listeners who missed the episode: This summary provides a clear map through the complexities of international crime statistics and demonstrates how easily numbers can mislead without context. The episode also offers a fun, data-driven look at the Olympics vs. Paralympics medal debate.

Transcript

[A]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. This week we take a voyage of discovery through the rough seas of crime statistics. Let's start with a which two countries are the kidnap capitals of the world? I'll let you think about it for a few minutes. In the meantime, our ears pricked up recently when we heard author Naomi wolf on the BBC's Newsnight programme commenting on the case of Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder who's fighting extradition from the UK to Sweden over sex assault allegations right now in Sweden.

[B]

Sweden has the highest rape rate in Europe, the lowest prosecution rate.

[A]

The allegation is that Sweden has the highest rate of rape in Europe and the lowest prosecution rate. And it's not just Naomi Wolf. This is widely reported. But is it true? Well, let's take these points one at a time. It is true that the Swedish police record the highest rate of offences of any force in Europe, about 63 per 100,000 inhabitants. That's the second highest rate in the world, three times higher than the rate of Sweden's next door neighbour, Norway. It's twice the rate in the United states and the UK, and more than 30 times the rate in India, which records about two offences per 100,000 people. I've been talking to Clara Sellin, a sociologist at the National Council for Crime Prevention in Stockholm. Do these figures mean Sweden is a much more dangerous place than these other countries?

[C]

No, definitely not. You can never compare police records on these crimes between different countries because the systems are not comparable at all. In Sweden, there has been this ambition explicitly to record every case of sexual violence separately to make it visible in the statistics. So, for instance, when a woman says that my husband or my fiance raped me almost every day during the last year, the police has to record each of these, which might be more than 300 events during the year. In many other countries, it would be just one record.

[A]

The thing is, the number of reported rapes has been going up in Sweden. It's almost trebled in just the last seven years. In 2003, about 2,200 offences were reported to the police, compared to nearly 6,000 in 2010. So something's going on. Clara Sellin says this isn't a crime epidemic, though, more a change of attitudes.

[C]

The major explanation to that is that people are more willing to go to the police. There might also be Some increase in actual crime because of the societal changes due to Internet, for instance. It's much easier today to meet somebody just the same evening if you want to. Also, alcohol consumption has increased quite a lot. But the major explanation is partly that people go to the police more often, but also the fact that in 2005 there has been this reform, which made the legal definition of rape much wider than before.

[A]

The change in law meant that cases where the victim was asleep or intoxicated are now included in the figures. Previously, they'd been recorded as another category of crime. So an on the face of it, international comparison of rape statistics can be misleading. Botswana has the highest rate of recorded attacks, 92.9 per 1,100,000 people, according to UN figures. But a total of 63 countries don't submit any statistics at all, including South Africa, where a survey three years ago showed that one in four men questioned admitted to committing rape. In 2010, an Amnesty International report highlighted that sexual violence happens in every single country. And yet the official figures show that some countries, like Hong Kong and Mongolia, for example, have zero cases reported. Evidently, women in some countries are much less likely to report an attack than in others and are much less likely to have their complaint recorded. Enrico Bisono, a statistician with the United nations, says surveys suggest that on average, as few as 1 in 10 cases are ever reported to the police.

[D]

We often present the situation as a kind of an iceberg where really what we can see is just the tip. While the rest is below the sea level, it remains below, below the radar of the law enforcement agencies.

[A]

Naomi Wolf also said Sweden has the lowest prosecution rate in Europe. We asked her about that and she pointed us to a nine year old report which calculated percentage conviction rates by taking into account the number of offences recorded by the police and the number of convictions. But that's a problematic way of analysing the statistics. For example, several offences could be committed by just one person. The United nations holds official statistics on the number of convictions for rape per 100,000 people. And by that measure, Sweden actually has the highest number of convictions per capita in Europe, bar Russia. In 2010, 3.7 convictions were achieved per 100,000 population. But as Naomi Wolff pointed out to the BBC, that is in part offset by the fact that women in Sweden report a high number of offences and only a small number of rapists are punished. And it's not just rape, which is hard to measure. I asked you earlier, which two countries are the kidnap capitals of the world? Well, Enrico Bisono has the official Answer.

[D]

You might be surprised that based on reported crime, the two countries with the highest level of kidnapping are not located in, for example, in Central America or in South America. But one country is Canada and the other one is Australia.

[A]

The reason Australia and Canada have more than 10 times the kidnap rates of Mexico and Colombia, for example, is that Canada and Australia include child custody disputes in their figures. Now, if rape and kidnap are particularly complex, you'd think it would be at least straightforward to analyse murder rates across different countries. Just count up the dead bodies and compare and contrast in if only Enrico Bisogno says it were that easy.

[D]

For example, if I punch somebody and then the person eventually dies, some countries can consider it as an intentional murder, others as a manslaughter. Or there are cases where, for example, in some countries dowry killings are coded separately because there is different legislation.

[A]

What's more, a comparison of murder rates between developed and less developed countries is to some unknown degree complicated by the fact that you're more likely to survive an attack in a place with good health care. Also this week we've had this question from a listener. Alex, I'm intrigued about the Paralympics. There are something like 29 gold medals awarded across a range of disabilities for the 100 metre sprint alone. This compares to two for the 100 meter sprint in the Olympic Games. It seems easier to win a Paralympic gold medal compared to an Olympic gold medal. Well, the more or less spreadsheet has been on fire this week in the capable hands of Charlotte Pritchard.

[B]

Hi, Ruth.

[A]

So, Charlotte, what have you got?

[B]

So I've defined the question as proportionately who went home with more medals, Olympians or Paralympians?

[A]

And let's be clear that we're not for a moment suggesting that winning any sort of medal or even competing at an international level is easy.

[B]

No, no, of course not. So, first of all, more than twice as many Olympic athletes competed in London than paralympic athletes. Almost 11,000 compared to about four and a half thousand Paralymp.

[A]

But looking at the official medal tables, I see there are fewer events in the Olympics.

[B]

Yeah, there are about a third fewer, 961, compared to just over 1500 in the Paralympics.

[A]

So in the Paralympics, there are half as many athletes and a third more events at which to win a medal, Basically, because each event has several classifications and there's a medal for each classification. So does that mean then, that there are more Paralympians with medals than Olympians?

[B]

Well, you'd think so, but the Olympics has far more team sports, so actually more Olympic athletes went home with a medal, almost 1800, compared to just over 1400 Paralympians. But there were thousands fewer Paralympians competing.

[A]

So the final answer?

[B]

The final answer is that at these games, proportionately speaking, more Paralympians won medals than Olympians, 32% of Paralympians won medals. And compared to 16% of Olympians. And more Paralympians than Olympians won more than one medal, three times as many. 372.

[A]

OK, thanks, Charlotte. If you like, Alex, have got a statistical question you'd like us to answer. Do email more or lessbc.co.uk and you can download other editions of More or Less at our website, bbcworldservice.com more or less. More or Less was presented by me, Ruth Alexander. The editor was Richard Varden. There are dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sport. The details of them all go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.