Is a child dying of hunger every 15 seconds?

Summary

Podcast Summary: More or Less – "Is a child dying of hunger every 15 seconds?"

Host: Ruth Alexander (BBC Radio 4)
Date: June 15, 2013

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Overview

This episode of More or Less investigates a provocative statistic frequently cited by celebrities and charity campaigns: the claim that every 10–15 seconds, a child dies of hunger. Ruth Alexander examines the origins, accuracy, and implications of this figure, speaking with experts and campaigners to uncover what the numbers actually mean, how they’re used, and why oversimplification can mislead public understanding.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Origins and Evolution of the Statistic

• The statistic ("a child dies of hunger every 15 seconds") is used by the IF campaign to promote awareness about global hunger.

• The campaign later revised the figure to "every 10 seconds" based on newer data.

  “One child dies because of hunger. Not every 15 seconds, but every 10 seconds. Is this true? Well, certainly it's based on a figure which comes from a reputable source. The internationally renowned journal the Lancet has published a paper which says that just over 3 million children died of undernutrition in 2011.”
  — Ruth Alexander [01:22]

• Calculated by dividing 3 million (annual undernutrition-related child deaths) by the number of seconds in a year.

2. Communicative Purpose vs. Scientific Accuracy

• Jack Lundy (IF Campaign) explains the motive behind the messaging:

  “We want to focus on the individual and these expressions help humanise a problem... give that a sense of scale and urgency that will precipitate some kind of action.”
  — Jack Lundy [02:08]

• Large numbers are hard to grasp, so campaigners condense them to emotionally resonant soundbites.

3. United Nations WFP Critique and Limitations

• Jane Howard (UN World Food Programme) expresses reservations:

  “There's a real temptation...because they really do grab the headlines... it's a bit misleading. And that's one of the reasons the World Food Programme tends to avoid using it these days...it is a bit of a gimmick and the science is actually saying something quite different.”
  — Jane Howard [02:48]

• Main points:

  • Statistics change year to year, confusing the public when old numbers linger online.
  • The phrasing can be misleading and oversimplify complex causes.

4. What the Science Actually Says

• Contrary to the image of mass starvation, most “hunger-related” child deaths stem from:

  • Early-life undernutrition leading to heightened vulnerability to disease (measles, etc.)
  • Poor nutrition as an underlying rather than direct cause.

  “The vast majority of those numbers...these are children who, because they haven't had the right nutrition in the very earliest part of their lives, are very susceptible to infectious diseases...and a child that's really fragile and has a compromised immune system, it becomes really life threatening.”
  — Jane Howard [03:33]

• Double-counting: Deaths attributed to poor nutrition sometimes overlap with those counted under waterborne diseases, etc.

5. Where and Why Are Children Under-nourished?

• Many deaths don’t occur in famine or conflict areas.

• Not simply due to lack of food but low-quality diets and poor feeding practices:

  “Most of the nutrition related mortality is from countries that are not in a famine situation or conflict situation. These are not the poorest countries in the world...So a diet that is really dominated only by cereals or starches...would not be a high enough quality diet to really achieve the nutrition that's needed in the first two years of life.”
  — Professor Robert Black [04:51]

• Causes include:

  • Educational gaps about nutrition ([05:54])
  • Cultural practices: mothers and babies not receiving the best food ([05:58])
  • Inadequate breastfeeding: up to a quarter of the deaths ([05:58])

6. The Campaign’s Defense and Acknowledgment of Oversimplification

• Jack Lundy acknowledges the message is simplified, but argues it is essential to engage the public:

  “You don't get all the information about the entire problem. But I don't think it would be realistic to expect that...from a very short piece of communication. What we would hope to establish is the right engagement that would allow us to have a more meaningful conversation...”
  — Jack Lundy [06:42]

  “...in terms of creating a conversation in which people can be informed, you first have to get their attention and their emotional attention.”
  — Jack Lundy [07:52]

• Ruth Alexander challenges Lundy on the possible misinterpretation by the public:

  “Do you think your message suggests to people that children are starving to death every few seconds?”
  — Ruth Alexander [07:03]

  • Lundy concedes the inference could be mistaken, but maintains that the phrasing is relatable ([07:09]).

7. Signs of Progress

• Despite high numbers, there have been improvements:

  “There's been a decrease in the number of excess deaths, not a very large decrease, but still some improvement. And the attention given to these issues of nutrition in low and middle income countries has really increased remarkably in the last five years...”
  — Professor Robert Black [08:33]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There is enough food for everyone in the world. Every 15 seconds a child dies of hunger.”
  — IF Campaign audio excerpt [00:32]
• “Partly because the numbers can change from year to year. And it gets very confusing because the old figures remain lying around on the Internet, but also because it is a bit of a gimmick and the science is actually saying something quite different.”
  — Jane Howard, UN WFP [02:48]
• “A diet that is really dominated only by cereals or starches... would not be a high enough quality diet to really achieve the nutrition that's needed in the first two years of life.”
  — Professor Robert Black [05:41]
• “A quarter of the deaths can be attributed to inadequate breastfeeding.”
  — Ruth Alexander paraphrasing Prof. Black [05:58]
• “It's just that people are very busy so you need an instantly accessible understanding to open a conversation.”
  — Jack Lundy [08:17]

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• 00:32 – Statistic is introduced: "Every 15 seconds a child dies of hunger."
• 01:22 – Evolution to "every 10 seconds" and explanation of calculation.
• 02:08 – IF campaign’s rationale for using the statistic.
• 02:48 – UN WFP critique of the statistic’s accuracy and messaging.
• 03:33 – Clarification of what undernutrition-related deaths mean in practice.
• 04:51 – Prof. Black on why and where undernutrition deaths occur.
• 05:58 – Brief discussion of educational and cultural causes of undernutrition.
• 06:42 – Jack Lundy addresses oversimplification.
• 07:03–07:52 – Debate on public interpretation and risk of misleading messaging.
• 08:33 – Signs of progress and optimism from Prof. Black.

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Conclusion

The episode thoughtfully dissects the "one child dies every 10/15 seconds from hunger" statistic. It demonstrates how such statistics, though rooted in reputable research, often misrepresent the reality for the sake of emotional impact and public engagement. The real issue is more complex, involving chronic undernutrition, disease susceptibility, and cultural or educational factors—not just starvation or simple lack of food. The guests agree that while raising awareness is vital, oversimplification risks misunderstanding, and solutions must address the nuanced roots of the problem. Despite challenges, progress is being made in the global fight against child undernutrition.

Transcript

[Jack Lundy]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldserveys.com podcasts

[Ruth Alexander]

this is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service. Hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander. This week we examine a popular statistic used by celebrities and charity campaigners.

[Professor Robert Black]

Well, it's time to start the show.

[Jack Lundy]

There is enough food for everyone in the world. Every 15 seconds a child dies of hunger.

[Ruth Alexander]

It's a figure that's being quoted to promote the Enough Food for Everyone IF campaign.

[Jack Lundy]

There is enough food for everyone, but not everyone has enough food.

[Professor Robert Black]

Sometimes it falls upon a generation to be great. You can be that great a generation.

[Jack Lundy]

It's time to tackle world hunger.

[Ruth Alexander]

But then, mid campaign, the organizers say they've realized the situation's even worse than they've been saying. One child dies because of hunger.

[Jane Howard]

Not.

[Ruth Alexander]

Not every 15 seconds, but every 10 seconds. Is this true? Well, certainly it's based on a figure which comes from a reputable source. The internationally renowned journal the Lancet has published a paper which says that just over 3 million children died of undernutrition in 2011. These are not actual individual children who have been counted, though. The number's an estimate based on surveys and local interviews. The IF charity campaign managers have divided that number, 3 million by the number of seconds in a year. And lo, they get that attention grabbing statistic that one child dies every 10 seconds because of hunger. Jack Lundy from the IF campaign says it resonates with people more than the 3 million figure would do.

[Jack Lundy]

Large figures are notoriously difficult to visualise and imagine, especially when you get into millions. Also, we want to focus on the individual and these expressions help humanise a problem. They help an audience empathise with the people that we're trying to help. So we need a short, accessible phrase that in a short period of time will convey both the emotional impact of the problem that we're addressing, but also give that a sense of scale and urgency that will precipitate some kind of action.

[Ruth Alexander]

The IF campaign's heart is in the right place. But another major group that tackles food problems around the world, the United Nations World Food Programme, disapproves of this kind of tactic. Here's Jane Howard.

[Jane Howard]

There's a real temptation to use those kind of statistics because they really do grab the headlines. You can't ignore that. I mean, it's such a horrifying image, but it's a bit misleading. And that's one of the reasons the World Food Programme tends to avoid using it these days. Partly because the numbers can change from year to year. And it gets very confusing because the old figures remain lying around on the Internet, but also because it is a bit of a gimmick and the science is actually saying something quite different.

[Ruth Alexander]

So what is the science saying? Well, it was quite a surprise to me. The claim that one child is dying every 10 seconds because of hunger conjures up images of starving children. But in most cases that's not what's happening.

[Jane Howard]

Jane Howard There are certainly circumstances, extreme circumstances when children do starve to death. And I'm thinking of, you know, the recent famine in parts of Somalia, for example. The truth is that the vast majority of those numbers that we're talking about, these are children who, because they haven't had the right nutrition in the very earliest part of their lives, are really, for example, very susceptible to infectious diseases like measles. And a child that's had good nutrition would just shrug it off. But a child that's really fragile and has a compromised immune system, it becomes really life threatening.

[Ruth Alexander]

Also, the fact that poor nutrition is being identified as an underlying cause of death means that there's some double counting going on. When you hear that one child dies every few seconds from water related diseases, for example, some of these children will be the same ones that are said to be dying every few seconds from hunger. The second surprise I had was discovering who these children are and why they're undernourished. In many cases it's not a simple lack of calories or as the adverts put it, complicated going to bed hungry. Here's the scientist whose calculations this popular stat is based on Professor Robert Black from John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in the United States.

[Professor Robert Black]

Most of the nutrition related mortality is from countries that are not in a famine situation or conflict situation. These are not the poorest countries in the world. They are countries such as India or Nigeria or many other countries in both Asia and Africa that really could do better, that have the resources to feed children within the country. Certainly the poorest have the greatest problems with undernutrition. But even then there may be sufficient food to feed children. The difficulty is achieving a high enough quality diet. So a diet that is really dominated only by cereals or starches of some kind would not be a high enough quality diet to really achieve the nutrition that's needed in the first two years of life.

[Ruth Alexander]

But why is it that people are not eating A diverse enough range of food. Is it to some degree a matter of education that people may not realise they need to eat such a wide variety?

[Professor Robert Black]

I would say overall, most of this can be addressed by education.

[Ruth Alexander]

In some cultures, women don't get to eat the best food in the household, which can mean children are born underweight. Milk and meat may also be avoided for cultural reasons. And sometimes it's just not fully understood how important fruit and vegetables are. And Professor Black estimates that a quarter of the deaths can be attributed to inadequate breastfeeding, with many families not realising that up to six months of age, babies need to be exclusively fed on breast milk for the nutrients it provides, but also because it protects them from exposure to contaminated food. So there's a much more complicated picture than is suggested by this headline statistic, that one child dies every 10 seconds because of hunger. But Jack Lundy from the IF Campaign defends it.

[Jack Lundy]

The first thing is that, yes, it may be that from our, what we would call our top line messaging, you don't get all the information about the entire problem. But I don't think it would be realistic to expect that to happen from a very short piece of communication. What we would hope to establish is the right engagement that would allow us to have a more meaningful conversation and engage people on the terms that they choose.

[Ruth Alexander]

But do you think your message suggests to people that children are starving to death every few seconds?

[Jack Lundy]

Well, we're not using the word starvation, so there might be.

[Ruth Alexander]

But is that implied, do you think, if children are dying from hunger, do you not think the implication is that children are starving to death?

[Jack Lundy]

I don't think it's an implication. I could understand if members of the public make that inference and that would be mistaken. I think that's true. And we are at pains, as I say, we're not saying that children, in this particular instance, that children are starving to death, and we explain exactly, exactly how it works, but I think the term hunger actually is something that people relate to.

[Ruth Alexander]

I wonder if in this case the message has become too simplified.

[Jack Lundy]

And what do you think is the risk of that oversimplification, that people are

[Ruth Alexander]

not informed about the real situation?

[Jack Lundy]

Yeah, I think that's a fair comment. But in terms of creating a conversation in which people can be informed, you first have to get their attention and their emotional attention. So we see these statistics as a really important way to engage people with a problem that they care about, because, of course, everyone would care about the potential death of a child. It's just that people are very busy so you need an instantly accessible understanding

[Ruth Alexander]

to open a conversation Poor nutrition is a serious problem. The three million children who are thought to have died because of it in 2011 represent almost half of all infant deaths. But Professor Black says there are signs of progress.

[Professor Robert Black]

There's been a decrease in the number of excess deaths, not a very large decrease, but still some improvement. And the attention given to these issues of nutrition in low and middle income countries has really increased remarkably in the last five years and I'm very optimistic that the world is now paying attention to the problems and will find the solutions.

[Ruth Alexander]

Robert Black, a professor of child health and nutrition if there are any numbers you'd like us to take a closer look at, do email us. Our address is more or lessbc.co.uk and you can sign up for a free download of our programs at our website, bbcworldservice.com more or less There are dozens

[Jack Lundy]

of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sport. For details of them all, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.