More or Less: Behind the Stats

Episode: Is it true that out-of-work benefits have almost doubled?
Date: September 17, 2025
Host: Tim Harford, BBC Radio 4

Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less examines headline-grabbing claims about UK out-of-work benefits: specifically, whether 6.5 million people are on such benefits, and if the figure has "almost doubled" in seven years – a statistic cited by Nigel Farage (GB News presenter and political party leader). The episode unpacks how administrative changes, shifting definitions, and changing populations influence these numbers, featuring expert analysis from Professor Ben Baumberg Geiger (King’s College London). The team also explores surprising statistics about French pensioners' incomes, salmon farming efficiency myths, and whether there are only five human senses.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Out-of-Work Benefits: The Claims vs. Reality

• Nigel Farage’s Claim
  "[There are now six and a half million people. Six and a half million people on] jobless benefits... Those numbers are up by 80% since 2018." (02:12–02:20)

• Are the Numbers Correct?

  • Tim Harford notes that the raw 6.5 million figure comes from official sources but questions what it actually represents and the context of its 80% rise.
  • Professor Ben Baumberg Geiger:
    • The number isn't "wrong" per se but using it to establish a trend is misleading due to changing administrative definitions over the years (03:15, 03:54).
    • Quote: "The way that counting is happening is not at all consistent over time...there's only been a very small rise in the proportion of people currently claiming out of work benefits." (03:15–03:46)

• Changing Definitions and Universal Credit

  • Rollout of Universal Credit (since 2013) has replaced various benefits, altering who is counted as "out of work."
  • Some Universal Credit claimants are in part-time work (04:07–05:07).
  • Quote: "A certain number of people on out of work benefits are in fact working. They're just not doing enough hours or earning enough...to be counted as out of work by the government." (04:47)
  • Some registered claimants receive no payment in a given month due to other income (05:42–05:59).

• Administrative Changes and Population Growth

  • Policy changes and increased population affect headline figures.
  • Example: The rising state pension age means more 60–64-year-olds are now classed as out-of-work rather than pensioners (06:45–07:09).
  • Universal Credit classification means people previously counted as in work tax credit claimants are now seen as out-of-work benefit recipients (07:19–07:54).
  • Quote: "Plausibly, we're looking at well over a million people being counted on the out of work benefits claim numbers who wouldn't be counted as that before, even though for most of us their situation looks exactly the same." (08:10)

• Spending, Not Just Numbers

  • Welfare spending gives a different picture:
    • While health and disability-related benefits are up, spending on other working-age benefits has fallen.
    • The UK’s non-pensioner welfare spending as a share of GDP is now about the same as it was in 2015 and below post-financial crisis levels (08:24–09:20).

2. Are More People Out of Work?

• Employment Rates

  • Employment is still near historic highs—only slightly lower than pre-COVID, equivalent to 2018's celebrated high (09:40–10:03).
  • The long-term trend: more women working, stagnation for men.

• Underlying Social Issues

  • Out-of-work rates for working-age men rose in the late 1970s and ’80s and have scarcely improved since.
  • Quote: "Instead of having that debate about the real issues...we have a sort of sham debate about loud headlines misrepresenting...because the statistics are hard to get your head around." (10:20)

3. French Pensioners Earn More Than Workers?

• Summary of the Statistic

  • Financial Times journalist John Byrne Murdoch explains: French pensioners enjoy higher average incomes than working-age adults.
  • This is due to how "household" incomes are averaged and "equivalized" for household size (12:10–13:45).
  • Quote: "Not everyone has a job, but every pensioner has a pension." (12:41–12:45)
  • French system is especially generous, and pensions are widely received – driving up the pensioner average.

• Comparisons to Other Countries

  • Italy, Spain, Portugal have pensioners at incomes approaching those of the working population.
  • UK pensioners: just under 80% of working-age incomes—up from 50% in the 1990s (14:36–15:20).
  • US pensioners: about 85–86% (14:36).
  • Quote: "In the UK...the average pensioner in the UK was only just over half of the average working age income, whereas that has now climbed right up to around 80%." (14:36–15:20)

• The Role of Housing Costs

  • Pensioners often have lower or no housing costs, further boosting disposable income relative to workers (15:20–16:36).
  • Recent data: After housing costs, most pensioners are better off than most working-age people.

• Generosity and Sustainability

  • France’s combination of a low effective retirement age (61 years), high benefits, and widespread qualification leads to high pensioner incomes, but also budgetary strains (17:04–18:00).

4. Salmon Farming—Are Salmon a Perpetual Motion Machine?

• Fish Farm Efficiency Claims

  • Large-scale salmon farming is said to use 1 kg of feed for 1 kg of fish—“sorcery” according to Tim Harford (20:38).
  • Fact-check by Kaya Waxenberg (Edinburgh University):
    • Salmon are extremely efficient but not magical: feed conversion ratio (FCR) is close to 1, actually typically 1.1–1.2; higher at the farm level (1.3), after accounting for feed waste and fish mortality (20:38–24:15).
    • Compared to chickens (FCR ~1.6), pigs (~3), and cattle (~8 or higher), salmon are indeed efficient (21:39).

• Important Nuance—Efficiency Metrics

  • Feed-to-fish weight doesn't equal feed-to-human-edible food.
  • Edible output is less than total output; salmon are ~60% edible mass.
  • In terms of calorie/energy efficiency: only ~25% of feed calories make it to the edible salmon flesh—so efficiency is much less impressive on that metric (24:15–24:36).

• Wild Fish Input

  • "Fish in:fIsh out” ratio has fallen dramatically—from 3 kg wild fish in per kg of salmon in 2000, to just under 1:1 in 2020 (24:55).
  • Quote: "The current fish in:fIsh out ratio as of 2020 was just slightly under 1, which means you'd need slightly less than 1kg of wild fish to produce 1kg of salmon, along with everything else that goes into the feeds." (24:55)

5. How Many Senses Do Humans Have?

• The “Five Senses” Myth

  • Co-host Lizzy and Tim Harford challenge the classic “five senses” (taste, sight, hearing, smell, touch).
  • Neurologists recognize at least nine, and some scholars propose up to 53 (!) senses (25:45–26:15).
  • Additional recognized senses include:
    • Vestibular (balance)
    • Thermoception (temperature)
    • Proprioception (bodily awareness)
    • Nociception (pain)
    • Interoception (internal body state)
      (26:29–28:43)

• Expert Insight

  • Dr. Guy Leschziner (Professor of Neurology):
    • "Medically speaking [the 'five senses'] is a vast oversimplification... There are senses that don’t fall within the five classical senses, like balance, proprioception, and interoception." (27:23–28:43)
    • The rule of five is a teaching tool, not a scientific limit.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Benefit Statistics
  • "The number isn't wrong. Exactly. It's the trend that's questionable." (Tim Harford, 03:46)
  • "Plausibly, we're looking at well over a million people being counted on the out of work benefits claim numbers who wouldn't be counted as that before..." (Ben Baumberg Geiger, 08:10)
• On French Pensioners’ Incomes
  • "Not everyone has a job, but every pensioner has a pension." (Tim Harford, 12:41)
  • "The French pension system is incredibly generous ... If we look at the total amount of money that French pensioners receive from the state per year ... France comes either top or in the top two or three countries." (John Byrne Murdoch, 17:04)
• On Salmon Efficiency
  • "You're right, it is implausible to have 1kg of feed magically transform into 1kg of salmon. It would kind of defy the laws of thermodynamics ... but salmon is an extremely efficient animal production system..." (Kaya Waxenberg, 20:38)
• On Human Senses
  • "Neurologists now agree on humans having around nine senses, but some academics suggest we have up to 53." (Lizzy, 26:04)
  • "So definitely more than five." (Dr. Guy Leschziner, 28:43)

Timestamps for Significant Segments

• Out-of-Work Benefits Statistic and Analysis: 02:12–11:12
• French Pensioners’ Relative Income Explained: 12:10–18:02
• Salmon Efficiency Myth Busting: 19:31–25:16
• How Many Senses Do Humans Have?: 25:30–29:17

Final Takeaways

• Raw benefit recipient stats are often misleading due to administrative changes—be wary of “80% rise” headlines.
• French pensioners do, on average, receive incomes at or above the working-age average, largely due to system design and measurement quirks.
• The feed efficiency of salmon is remarkable, but not magical; scrutinizing such statistics requires understanding both what is being measured and how.
• Humans have more than five senses—possibly many more—reflecting an evolving understanding of how we perceive the world.

For questions and comments, listeners are invited to email moreorless@bbc.co.uk.