Is JD Vance right about left-wing violence?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "Is JD Vance right about left-wing violence?"

Podcast: More or Less: Behind the Stats
Host: Tim Harford (BBC Radio 4)
Episode Date: September 20, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode investigates Vice President J.D. Vance's claim, made after the assassination of Charlie Kirk, that “most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left.” Tim Harford and the More or Less team dive into polling data, long-term trends, and expert opinion to evaluate whether left-wing political violence is statistically more prevalent than right-wing violence in the U.S., and how political violence should be assessed in the first place.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. JD Vance's Claim and What It Means

• Context: In the aftermath of Charlie Kirk's murder, J.D. Vance calls for unity but claims:
  “It is a statistical fact that most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left.” (02:13)
• The term "lunatics" is ambiguous; the team interprets it as referring to perpetrators of political violence.

2. YouGov Poll on Attitudes Toward Political Violence

• Claim Cited:
  “24% of self described, quote, very liberals believe it is acceptable to be happy about the death of a political opponent.” — J.D. Vance (03:18)
• Clarification:
  • 25% of "very liberal" respondents said political violence was sometimes justified; only 3% of "very conservative" agreed.
  • The majority on all sides still oppose political violence.
  • Context matters: the poll was conducted right after Kirk’s assassination and may reflect emotional responses, not deeply held beliefs.
  • Political climate and which party holds power also affect survey responses.

3. Historical Data on Political Violence

• Cato Institute Data (1975–2025):
  • Total deaths: 3,599 from politically motivated attacks.
  • Perpetrators:
    • Left-wing: 2%
    • Right-wing: 11%
    • Islamist: 87% (Includes 9/11) (05:08)
  • Excluding 9/11:
    • Left-wing: 10%
    • Right-wing: 63% (05:43)
• Recent Trends (since 2020):
  • Left-wing perpetrators: 18 deaths (22%)
  • Right-wing perpetrators: 44 deaths (54%)
  • Shows more left-wing violence in recent years, but right-wing violence remains higher.

4. Complexity in Defining and Identifying Political Violence

• Motivation and ideology are often unclear; many perpetrators are not easily categorized.
• Example:
  • John Hinckley Jr.'s attempted assassination of Reagan was motivated by obsession with Jodie Foster, not politics (07:10).
  • Other recent acts involved assailants with mental health issues or unfocused ideologies.

5. Expert Opinions on Political Violence & Definitions

• Sean Westwood (Dartmouth):
  • Modern political violence is less ideological than in the 60s–70s, often perpetrated by socially isolated individuals (06:40, 08:54).
  • Recent high-profile attacks (e.g. Paul Pelosi, Josh Shapiro, Donald Trump) often lack clear political motivations.
• Robert Pape (University of Chicago):
  • No unified government definition of political violence, making cross-study comparisons tough (07:45).
  • Trends:
    • 1960s: more left-wing violence
    • 1970s–2018: more right-wing violence
    • Since 2019/2021: balanced between right and left (08:15)

6. Challenges in Assigning Motive and Ideology

• Political violence spans a spectrum from public disorder to murder, often with ambiguous motives.
• Classification depends on definitions used by researchers and the political context.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• J.D. Vance:
  "It is a statistical fact that most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left." (02:13)
• Lizzie McNeil:
  "25% of people defined as very liberal in the survey said that political violence was sometimes justified, compared to 3% for people defined as very conservative." (03:29) "The timing of these questions has a big effect on the answers. For example, who's in power matters hugely." (03:56)
• Tim Harford:
  "But most of the violence is on the left. Okay, interesting. Is it?" (05:02)
• Sean Westwood:
  "It's not clear that a lot of the folks who are committing political violence have any kind of ideology. Most of these folks are isolated, on the fringes of society with incoherent ideological views." (06:40)
• Robert Pape:
  "In America, political violence came mainly from the left. From the 70s to about 2018, 19, it came very heavily from the right. And since about 2019, you could date 2021, it has been far more balanced." (08:15)
• Lizzie McNeil:
  "Political violence is an incredibly ambiguous term that covers a whole host of different crimes, from public disorder to murder. That, coupled with the fact that motive is often unclear and political ideology is cited more than actual political allegiance, makes this question a very difficult one to answer." (09:28)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:07 – Introduction and context: Charlie Kirk’s assassination and JD Vance’s statement
• 03:18 – Discussion of YouGov poll about political violence attitudes
• 05:08 – Review of historical death statistics (Cato Institute)
• 06:40 – Sean Westwood on the changing nature of political violence
• 07:45 – Robert Pape on definitional issues and trends
• 08:54 – Recent violent incidents and the complexity of assigning motivation
• 09:28 – Summing up: ambiguity in defining and measuring political violence

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Conclusion

The episode concludes that while some polls and recent data suggest an uptick in left-wing violence, longer-term and more comprehensive datasets indicate that right-wing violence has historically been more deadly in the U.S., especially post-1970s. The hosts and experts agree that understanding political violence is fraught with definitional challenges, ambiguous motives, and methodological issues, making simplistic partisan claims like JD Vance’s highly questionable.

Key Takeaway:
There is no simple statistical answer—political violence is multifaceted, influenced by context, definitions, and ambiguous motives, and the data does not support the blanket assertion that most political violence comes from the far left.

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Transcript

[Tim Harford]

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[Tim Harford]

Hello and thanks for downloading the More or Less podcast with a program that looks at the numbers in the headlines and I'm Tim Harford. On September 10, 2025, the political activist and media personality Charlie Kirk was at Utah Valley University speaking at an event for Turning Point usa. Turning Point is a non profit organization founded by Kirk that aimed to get his brand of conservative right wing politics into high schools, colleges and universities across the US 20 minutes after the event began, Kirk was shot and killed in front of 3,000 people. The murder and the hunt for the killer made headlines around the globe. A suspect, Tyler Robinson, was arrested two days later after being persuaded by his father to hand himself in. On September 15, Vice President J.D. vance, a friend of Charlie Kirk, hosted a special edition of the Charlie Kirk Show Live from the White House, during which he called for unity.

[J.D. Vance]

But unity, real unity, can be found only after climbing the mountain of truth. And while our side of the aisle certainly has its crazies, it is a statistical fact that most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left.

[Tim Harford]

Is he right? Is it really a statistical fact that most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left? Well, with me is Lizzie McNeil, who's been looking into the data. Hello Lizzie.

[Lizzie McNeil]

Hi Tim. Well, to know which data to look at, we're gonna have to try and figure out what the Vice President is referring to.

[Tim Harford]

Yes, I imagine that lunatics in American politics isn't usually a data classification.

[Lizzie McNeil]

No, from the context of when he said this during a tribute episode to a man who'd just been murdered, you'd naturally assume he's talking about perpetrators of political violence. However, it seems like he might have been referring to data from a YouGov poll which was conducted in the days after Kirk's assassination.

[J.D. Vance]

24% of self described, quote, very liberals believe it is acceptable to be happy about the death of a political opponent.

[Tim Harford]

And is he correct?

[Lizzie McNeil]

Pretty much so. 25% of people defined as very liberal in the survey said that political violence was sometimes justified, compared to 3% for people defined as very conservative. Younger liberals were more likely to say violence was justified than older. That said, the majority of respondents from all sides of the political spectrum were against political violence.

[Tim Harford]

And how seriously should we take that finding?

[Lizzie McNeil]

I mean, it's a serious poll done by a serious polling company, so there's no reason to dismiss it. However, as so often with polling, the context and the question does matter. The fact that the YouGov poll was conducted in the days after Charlie Kirk's death was would also affect these figures, as people who agreed with him are more likely to be turned off by violence, whereas those who were extreme in their dislike for him might feel more inclined to agree with violence more generally. The timing of these questions has a big effect on the answers. For example, who's in power matters? Hugely. Pollsters found that when Donald Trump was elected as president for a second term, there was a notable decrease in Republican support for for political violence.

[Tim Harford]

Okay, so that's the polling data, but whichever way you cut it, the conversation spiralled into accusations of which side is more likely to commit political violence.

[Lizzie McNeil]

Yes. So on Wednesday the 17th, Donald Trump was asked about his thoughts on whether the US Needed more unity, and he responded, well, I agree with it. I agree 100%.

[Tim Harford]

But most of the violence is on the left. Okay, interesting. Is it?

[Lizzie McNeil]

It's a hotly contested subject, and it depends what you're counting as violence and how you define right and left. If you just look at deaths in data going back to 1975 compiled by the Cato Institute, you see that there were 3,599 deaths from politically motivated attacks in the U.S. 2% of these deaths were committed by people identified as being on the left, 11% by people on the right, and 87% by Islamists.

[Tim Harford]

Ah, so that data includes the death toll from 9 11.

[Lizzie McNeil]

Exactly. If you exclude 9 11, then the share of politically motivated murders by people on the left rises to 10% and those on the right to 63%.

[Tim Harford]

Interesting. But that's going all the way back to 1975, and there is more left wing violence in recent years.

[Lizzie McNeil]

Yes, and if you look at the more recent data in this data set, since 2020, there have been 18 people murdered by people identified as being on the left, or 22%, and 44 by people on the right, and that's 54%.

[Tim Harford]

In lots of these cases. I imagine it's not easy to precisely identify politics. There's a whole range of ideologies and of course, mental health issues in many of these cases.

[Lizzie McNeil]

Absolutely. And I actually spoke about that with Sean Westwood, an associate professor of government at Dartmouth College. We started by looking at some of the political violence in the 60s and also the 70s where a lot of.

[Sean Westwood]

Violence occurred, where we had organized, coordinated terrorists, bombing and assassinating folks in our country. We had the Weather Underground, the Black Panthers. I think that is the high point of violence in our country. If we look at the modern era, though, it's not clear that a lot of the folks who are committing political violence have any kind of ideology. Most of these folks are isolated, on the fringes of society with incoherent ideological views.

[Lizzie McNeil]

In a famous case, the attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan in 1981 was carried out by a man called John Hinckley Jr. Who was motivated by his obsession with the actress Jodie Foster. And he bizarrely thought that if he was successful, he it would impress her.

[Tim Harford]

Thankfully, President Reagan survived that. So what about violence that didn't result in a death?

[Lizzie McNeil]

Right. Well, here's where things get more complicated.

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There is no official government definition of political violence. The FBI does not have an official definition of political violence.

[Lizzie McNeil]

That is Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago. And he collects data on a wider range of political violence. But frustratingly, everyone in this field seems to define their terms slightly differently. So some counts include violence during events like the Black Lives Matter movement or anti abortion marches. Robert also includes things like attacks on the Tesla dealerships in his count, along with threats made to congressmen. And his trend came out like in the 1960s.

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In America, political violence came mainly from the left. From the 70s to about 2018, 19, it came very heavily from the right. And since about 2019, you could date 2021, it has been far more balanced.

[Lizzie McNeil]

When these threats turn into serious acts of violence, in many cases, the actual political motivation is incredibly unclear. Take the examples of Paul Pelosi, the husband of the former Democrat speaker of the House of Representatives Josh Shapiro, another Democrat and governor of Pennsylvania. And the attempt on President Trump's life last year. Here's Sean again.

[Sean Westwood]

So the gentleman who attacked Paul Pelosi was an indigent man with no motivation really, beyond mental illness. The gentleman who attacked or tried to burn down Josh Shapiro's mansion in Pennsylvania was ideologically incoherent, the individual who tried to assassinate President Trump last year. On his phone they found searches for rnc, DNC for prominent Democrats and prominent Republicans. We don't know why he tried to assassinate President Trump, but it doesn't seem as if he was particularly focused on Donald Trump. He was interested in doing something with politicians.

[Lizzie McNeil]

The problem with trying to work out whether more violence is coming from left or the right is that political violence is an incredibly ambiguous term that covers a whole host of different crimes, from public disorder to murder. That, coupled with the fact that motive is often unclear and political ideology is cited more than actual political allegiance, makes this question a very difficult one to answer.

[Tim Harford]

Thank you Lizzy. That is all we have time for this week, but if you've seen a number we should take a look at, please email us on more or lessbc.co.uk until next time. Goodbye.

[Lizzie McNeil]

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