Is the ‘loneliness epidemic’ real?

Summary

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More or Less – "Is the ‘loneliness epidemic’ real?"

Date: May 23, 2026
Host: Tim Harford (BBC Radio 4)
Main Contributor: Tom Coles
Expert Guest: Professor Melody Ding (University of Sydney)

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Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less interrogates the widespread claim that we are currently experiencing an "epidemic of loneliness." Tim Harford and Tom Coles examine the numbers and definitions behind this assertion, untangling whether the phrase "loneliness epidemic" accurately describes social trends, or if it's a misleading misnomer. Supported by insights from Professor Melody Ding, the episode seeks to clarify what the data actually tells us—across various age groups and global regions—about rates of loneliness.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

What Does "Epidemic" Mean in This Context?

• [01:42] Tim Harford opens the episode questioning the appropriateness of the term "epidemic" when applied to a feeling rather than a disease.
  • "What does it mean if you say that something's an epidemic?... But what if the thing you're talking about is not a virus, but a feeling?"

Prevalence of Loneliness — What Do Surveys Show?

• [03:18–03:54] Tom Coles explains how loneliness is measured and discusses global statistics:
  • There's no universally agreed-upon measure or consistent evidence of sharply rising loneliness rates.
  • The Gallup World Poll (2023) found 23% worldwide felt lonely "a lot of the day yesterday."
  • The World Health Organization (WHO)`s analysis suggests the rate is closer to 16%.
  • "I think somewhere around one in five people experiencing regular loneliness is potentially in the right ballpark." (Tom Coles, 04:31)

Is Loneliness Increasing Over Time?

• [05:07–05:49] Older data (from 1981 and 1990 US surveys) actually suggest similar or even higher rates of reported loneliness compared to today, despite differences in survey methodology.
  • This undermines the image of a recent dramatic rise and suggests little evidence of a sudden outbreak.
  • "It's hardly evidence of a sudden recent outbreak of loneliness..." (Tim Harford, 05:49)

Loneliness Across the Lifespan

• [06:03–06:36] Tom Coles details how loneliness can have two peaks:
  • Higher in adolescence, declining in middle adulthood, and rising again in older adulthood.
  • Population-wide statistics might be masking these demographic patterns.
  • "You might just be measuring a change in demographics rather than a change in loneliness per se." (Tom Coles, 06:36)

What Does the Best Data Say?

• [06:45–08:17] Professor Melody Ding discusses robust studies from the US and Europe:

  • US data (Health and Retirement Study, 1996–2018) shows a small decrease in loneliness among adults 50+.
  • European data is "noisy" and inconsistent across countries and methodologies.
    • "We actually didn’t observe an increase. In fact, we saw a small decrease in loneliness in this age group alone." (Melody Ding, 07:10)
    • "Some studies suggest increase, others suggest stable, and the others suggest a decrease." (Melody Ding, 07:37)

• No evidence of an adult "loneliness epidemic." However, trends are different for younger people.

A Genuine Increase Among Young People

• [08:04–08:29] Melody Ding highlights a consistent rise in loneliness among young people globally over the last two decades.
  • "We are observing consistent increasing trends in young people in the last 20 years, and that’s been quite consistent across different continents and countries." (Melody Ding, 08:17)
• This matches broader worries about declining young people's mental health generally.

Two Very Different Stories About Loneliness

• [08:43–09:14] Tim Harford and Tom Coles note that lumping all age groups together masks meaningful differences:
  • Teenage loneliness and older adult loneliness have different causes and consequences.
  • "The causes and associated problems of teenage loneliness must be very different to those for older people." (Tim Harford, 08:43)

Why Call it an "Epidemic"?

• [09:14–09:56] Usage of the term "epidemic" is questioned even by scientists:
  • Scientists, including Melody Ding, are wary of calling it that; she prefers "an important public health problem."
  • "This is a term I usually try to stay away from... I usually would define loneliness as an important public health problem." (Melody Ding, 09:36)
  • Some use "social epidemic" to distinguish it from infectious diseases, but Melody points out this can be stigmatizing and misleading.
  • "It also pathologized loneliness in a way which is actually quite a common human experience." (Melody Ding, 09:56)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the lack of evidence for an epidemic:

  • "I haven’t been able to find any graphs like that... there are some graphs showing an upward trend and others showing a slight downward trend depending on where in the world you’re looking and which groups you’re looking at." (Tom Coles, 03:32)

• On demographic patterns:

  • "Adolescents seem to experience a lot of loneliness and then this declines as people get jobs and partners and families and a network of friends and all that, then often rises again towards the end of people’s lives..." (Tom Coles, 06:03)

• On the two different stories within the "epidemic":

  • "It sounds like this is one of those stats where two stories are really being forced into one to the detriment of both." (Tim Harford, 08:43)

• On the dangers of the epidemic label:

  • "I can see the point of using the word epidemic because we really want to call for action... But it also pathologized loneliness in a way which is actually quite a common human experience." (Melody Ding, 09:56)

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Segment Timestamps

• [01:42] – Introduction to the "loneliness epidemic" claim
• [03:18] – How loneliness is measured; worldwide stats
• [05:07] – Looking for long-term trends: US data from 1981 and 1990
• [06:03] – Loneliness at different life stages
• [06:45] – Professor Melody Ding on best available data
• [08:04] – Clear rise in young people’s loneliness
• [08:43] – Why lumping age groups together is misleading
• [09:14] – The debate about the word "epidemic"
• [10:21] – Summary and sign-off

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Conclusions

• There is no robust evidence of a general "epidemic" of loneliness among the whole population, at least among adults or older adults.
• Rates of loneliness appear stable or even slightly declining in those groups.
• There is a clear and consistent rise in loneliness among young people globally, which aligns with other indicators of declining youth mental health.
• The label "epidemic" is popular in media and policy but often misapplied; it can pathologize a common human experience and obscure important differences between age groups.
• The nuanced reality: Loneliness is both a significant public health concern and a complex phenomenon not best understood through sensationalist language.

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Transcript

[Tim Harford]

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[Tim Harford]

Hello and thanks for downloading the More or Less podcast with a programme that looks at the numbers in the news and in life and in mysterious epidemics. I'm Tim Harford. What does it mean if you say that something's an epidemic? In the case of a virus, it usually means that it's spreading rapidly and that more and more people are getting infected. When a disease isn't on the rise, but is there in a population at a reasonably steady level, we tend to say that the disease is endemic. But what if the thing you're talking about is not a virus, but a feeling? In 2023, the US Surgeon General launched a report called Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation, warning of the health harms of being lonely and socially isolated. The idea that there's an epidemic of loneliness didn't start there. The term was already in use in the US in the 2000 and tens, and it's a phrase that's still going strong, popping up in news stories on a regular basis. After that warning from the US Surgeon General, the world Health Organization launched the Commission on Social Connection with their director general warning that more and more people are finding themselves isolated and lonely. But is it true that loneliness rates are increasing? Is it right to say we're in the midst of an epidemic of loneliness? Tom Coles has been looking into this one. Hello, Tom.

[Tom Coles]

Hi, Tim.

[Tim Harford]

So what is the evidence that we've got a loneliness epidemic on our hands? You know, the kind of thing, sharply rising line on a graph. Clear long term trend of significant increase. Evidence that more and more people are lonely.

[Tom Coles]

Well, okay, look, I haven't been able to find any graphs like that. Oh yeah, it's a bit of an odd one to be honest. I mean, there are some graphs showing an upward trend and others showing a slight downward trend depending on where in the world you're looking and which groups you're looking at.

[Tim Harford]

It doesn't sound like an epidemic, but just run me through what you've worked out.

[Tom Coles]

Okay, so definitions First. Loneliness is a subjective experience, an unpleasant feeling of being isolated or alone. One way to understand what proportion of the pop is experiencing that unpleasant feeling is to ask them. And I want to be clear. Surveys show that hundreds of millions of people describe themselves as regularly feeling lonely. The numbers slightly depend on how you ask the question and who you're asking. But for example, polling company Gallup's World Poll found that in 2023, 23% of people globally said they felt lonely a lot of the day yesterday.

[Tim Harford]

All the lonely people, where do they all come from?

[Tom Coles]

Well, the highest rates were in Africa. Though it's possible that people might have been interpreting that as time spent on their own physically rather than experiencing the feeling of loneliness. The World Health Organisation Commission you mentioned earlier also analysed the global data and suggested that the global rate of loneliness was more like 16%. Again, these are using different methods and measuring all kinds of slightly different things, but I think somewhere around one in five people experiencing regular loneliness is potentially in the right ballpark.

[Tim Harford]

Well, that's quite a run of caveats on that one, Tom. So that's very roughly how many people might be regularly feeling lonely at the moment. Can we see a long term trend? Is that number higher than in the past?

[Tom Coles]

I'm not entirely sure.

[Tim Harford]

Oh yeah.

[Tom Coles]

So if we look at the U.S. when I asked Gallup what polling they had pre 2000, they said that a 1990 survey found that 36% of U.S. adults reported sometimes or frequently feeling lonely. In 1981, a different poll with different wording found that 42% of respondents said they were sometimes or frequently very lonely.

[Tim Harford]

So those two data points aren't straightforward to compare. But it's hardly evidence of a sudden recent outbreak of loneliness, which does raise the question of whether the word is epidemic is really the right way of describing what's going on.

[Tom Coles]

No, the thing with loneliness is that it changes quite a lot through people's lives. Adolescents seem to experience a lot of loneliness and then this declines as people get jobs and partners and families and a network of friends and all that, then often rises again towards the end of people's lives as they stop working, their physical health gets worse and their social circles shrink. So if you just take a snapshot of the whole population, you're bundling people at all those ages together. You might just be measuring a change in demographics rather than a change in loneliness per se.

[Tim Harford]

This sounds like a case for social science and there must be some better data out there based on established systems of measurements and some good statistics.

[Tom Coles]

Yeah, there is, but this evidence is also a very mixed bag. If we're talking about adults, and if we're talking about adults, there's no evidence of an epidemic. Professor Melody Ding is an epidemiologist from the University of Sydney. She's done loads of studies on this subject, one of which analysed loneliness in older adults in the US using more rigorously controlled survey data.

[Melody Ding]

So we use the data called Health and Retirement Study. It's from the US, particularly on the middle age and older population, generally 50 plus. And looking at this particular group from 1996 to 2018, we actually didn't observe an increase. In fact, we saw a small decrease in loneliness in this age group alone.

[Tom Coles]

Melody has also looked at the data from Europe.

[Melody Ding]

The picture is really quite noisy. It really depends on the measure, depends on the population, depends on the country. Some studies suggest increase, others suggest stable, and the others suggest a decrease. So that's why I hesitate to come to any conclusions when it comes to adults.

[Tim Harford]

Okay, so the good quality scientific research finds no evidence of anything you'd call an epidemic in adults.

[Tom Coles]

No, but remember the pattern that we talked about earlier, with two peaks, one in adolescence and one in older age, where, as far as Melody is concerned, there is is a clear trend in the younger group.

[Melody Ding]

We are observing consistent increasing trends in young people in the last 20 years, and that's been quite consistent across different continents and countries.

[Tom Coles]

That's not perhaps all that surprising. We already know that there's a worrying general decline in the mental health of young people around the world. And if young people are more Anxious and more depressed, it's not surprising they're also more lonely.

[Tim Harford]

It sounds like this is one of those stats where two stories are really being forced into one to the detriment of both. The causes and associated problems of teenage loneliness must be very different to those for older people.

[Tom Coles]

Absolutely. For older people, loneliness can be a consequence of retirement, chronic illness, or friends and family dying. Lonely teenagers aren't usually lonely. For those reasons, even the data sets are disconnected. The studies Melody is analyzing on teenagers don't join up with the data sets on older people.

[Tim Harford]

So if you see a loneliness epidemic being used to talk about the population as a whole, that's not really a thing. If you see it used for young people in isolation, it might be, but it's likely to cause confusion. So why do even scientists in the field use the phrase?

[Tom Coles]

I'm not totally sure. Melody tries to avoid it, although that can be hard in her field.

[Melody Ding]

This is a term I usually try to stay away from. As a scientist myself, I usually would define loneliness as an important public health problem. Problem.

[Tom Coles]

The term social epidemic is sometimes used by scientists to describe loneliness, to draw a distinction with an infectious disease. But even then, Melody isn't sure it's a good strategy.

[Melody Ding]

So I can see the point of using the word epidemic because we really want to call for action, and then that really highlights the urgency. But it also pathologized loneliness in a way which is actually quite a common human experience. So I think social epidemic also kind of creates that negative connotation and make us feel like loneliness is a disease, which it is not.

[Tim Harford]

Thank you, Tom. And thanks to Melody. Ding. That's it for today. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at email more or lessbc.co.uk. we'll be back next week, and until then, goodbye.

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