Is the world getting less miserable?

Summary

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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Episode: Is the world getting less miserable?
Date: October 4, 2025
Host: Tim Harford (BBC Radio 4)
Theme: The episode investigates the recent mass disappearance and alteration of US government data sets, particularly those relating to sensitive or politically charged issues, and reflects on why trusted, accessible data matters so much for policy, business, and vulnerable populations.

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Episode Overview

Tim Harford and the More or Less team examine the sweeping removal and alteration of US government statistical data beginning in early 2025. Through interviews with data experts Maggie Levenstein and John Cubali, the episode explores the causes, real-world implications, and ongoing uncertainties of data loss—particularly for groups whose vulnerabilities are often first seen through statistics. The show emphasizes the foundational role of data for policymakers, researchers, and the general public in making sense of the world and ensuring accountability.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Disappearance of Government Data (01:08–03:19)

• Trigger: Early February 2025 saw thousands of US government data sets and webpages vanish, notably from the CDC, NIH, and Census Bureau.
  • Tim Harford: "Some 8,000 government pages and 3,000 data sets had been taken down. Since then, many have been reinstated, but some have not."
• Cause: Executive orders by President Trump at the start of his second term targeted diversity, inclusion, and climate change content on federal websites.
  • Maggie Levenstein (02:21): "Lots and lots of data sets disappeared from access because... executive orders from the president questioning what could be made available."

2. Intentional Data Suppression and Alteration (03:30–04:29)

• Budget Cuts & Firings: Significant numbers of federal employees responsible for maintaining and producing data were fired, undermining data access and collection.
• Data Alteration: Some restored datasets were found to be changed, particularly to obscure information on gender identity, vaccines, sexual behavior, or climate.
  • Maggie Levenstein (04:03): “There were actual decisions... to alter them to obscure information about gender identity or about vaccines or about sexual behavior or about climate...”

3. Consequences of Lost or Altered Data (04:29–05:56)

• Impact on Social Support: The inability to track certain populations—such as nonbinary teens—means their unique risks and needs become invisible.
  • Tim Harford (04:29): "Some might see the eradication of the nonbinary gender category as purely a symbolic move. But ... teenagers who identify as nonbinary are more likely to be more vulnerable... That’s something we couldn't have known without collecting the data."
  • Maggie Levenstein (04:55): "When we don't have that information, it's much harder to provide the resources that people need to live full and healthy lives."
• Economic Blindness: Businesses and policymakers rely on government data for economic indicators like the Consumer Prices Index; cuts mean less reliable data.
  • Maggie Levenstein (05:36): "Businesses... rely on them to be high quality measures. ...with reduced spending... we get lower quality measures as a result..."

4. Official Pushback & Disclaimers (05:56–06:39)

• Government Disclaimers: Some websites returned with disclaimers undermining their trustworthiness and asserting new political stances.
  • CDC Website Disclaimer (~06:14): "Any information on this page promoting gender ideology is extremely inaccurate and disconnected from the immutable biological reality that there are two sexes..."

5. Threat to Public Health Data: The PRAMS Example (06:39–09:11)

• Significance: PRAMS (Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System) gathers critical data on maternal and child health.
  • John Cubali (06:48): “Prams... is kind of the gold standard for assessing... maternal and child health in the US.”
• Data Access Issues: Since 2016, newer data is unavailable; requests go unanswered, leaving many researchers ‘out of luck’.
  • John Cubali (08:13): “Any of the data from the last 10 years... that's not publicly available. And so if you did not have access to that already, you're kind of out of luck at this point.”
• Future Uncertain: Despite assurances, PRAMS’ future is unclear after the staff were let go.
  • John Cubali (08:40): "April 1, the entire prams office was essentially fired. ...really uncertain what this means for this data collection..."

6. The Incomplete Work of Data Preservation (09:11–09:45)

• Crowdsourced Safeguarding: Academics scramble to preserve datasets, but “snapshots” are no substitute for full, reliable data.
  • Maggie Levenstein (09:23): “There's some data that you can't get to at all... some data that we don't know is gone yet... data that’s been preserved, but we don’t know for sure that it hasn’t been changed.”

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the power and vulnerability of data:
  • Tim Harford (01:08): "We're the programme that delves into data, steeps itself in statistics and mulls over mathematical mysteries."
• On the intent behind data erasure:
  • Maggie Levenstein (04:03): "There were actual decisions... to alter them to obscure information about gender identity or about vaccines or about sexual behavior or about climate..."
• On the value of social data:
  • Tim Harford (04:29): "We know that teenagers who identify as nonbinary are more likely to be vulnerable to certain risks... That's something we couldn't have known without collecting the data in the past."
  • Maggie Levenstein (04:55): “It’s much harder to provide resources that people need to live full and healthy lives.”
• On the uncertainty and loss:
  • John Cubali (08:13): “If you did not have access to that already, you're kind of out of luck at this point.”
  • Maggie Levenstein (09:23): “There's some data that you can't get to at all... some [that] we don't know is gone yet...”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:08] Introduction to the case of missing US data
• [02:21] Maggie Levenstein explains the purge following new executive orders
• [03:30] Discussion of mass firings and budget cuts impacting data production
• [04:03] Data sets altered to obscure sensitive information
• [04:29] Risks of losing data on vulnerable populations
• [05:20] Bureau of Labor Statistics stops collecting CPI data from some cities
• [05:56] Government disclaimers undermine trust in restored data
• [06:48] Introduction to PRAMS and its critical role in public health
• [08:13] John Cubali details the sudden loss of data access
• [09:23] Challenges and limitations of academic attempts to salvage data

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Conclusion

This episode highlights the foundational importance of trustworthy, accessible data in informing social policy, business decisions, and the health and well-being of vulnerable communities. The show demonstrates the far-reaching harm that can result from political meddling, underfunding, or outright removal of public datasets, and leaves listeners with a clear sense of uncertainty—and urgency—regarding the fate and integrity of US government data.

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Transcript

[Tim Harford]

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[Tim Harford]

Hello, and thanks for downloading the More or less podcast. We're the programme that delves into data, steeps itself in statistics and mulls over mathematical mysteries. And I'm Tim Harford. In early February 2025, something strange started happening across US government websites.

[Maggie Levenstein]

Error.

[Tim Harford]

Decades of data began disappearing from webpages for agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health and the Census Bureau. In many cases, the entire website went dark Within a few days. Some 8,000 government pages and 3,000 data sets had been taken down. Since then, many have been reinstated, but some have not. A curious case indeed. As data sleuths, we have questions. Why was this data taken away? And why does any of it matter? Let us delve into the case of the missing US data.

[Maggie Levenstein]

Lots and lots of data sets disappeared from access because entire websites for agencies of the government came down because of executive orders from the president questioning what could be made available. I'm Maggie Levenstein. I'm a professor at the University of Michigan and director of icpsr, the data consortium that's based here.

[Tim Harford]

At the start of President Trump's second term, he signed a flurry of executive orders. The for example, eradicating measures promoting diversity, equality and inclusion in federal government. The order targeted websites over language about minorities, indigenous peoples, race, gender, sexuality and disability. Climate change was another banned topic because.

[Maggie Levenstein]

Agencies weren't sure that their websites would be consistent with the policies. They just brought the entire websites down. And that meant that data that had been Collected and was accessed through those websites became inaccessible.

[Tim Harford]

While this was happening, the Department of Government Efficiency was plowing on with their goal of cutting $2 trillion from government spending. They haven't got anywhere close to those savings, by the way.

[Maggie Levenstein]

Lots and lots of people were fired. And those people are often people who produce data or people who provide access to data. And without those people in place, access was impossible. And there also were budget cuts that were affecting data access and data collection going forward.

[Tim Harford]

Now, most of the government websites did eventually reappear. Some data sets were fully restored. But some data sets were discontinued and some reappeared. Although researchers soon noticed they'd been changed.

[Maggie Levenstein]

There were actual decisions for particular data sets to alter them to obscure information about gender identity or about vaccines or about sexual behavior or about climate, that those were policy areas where there's a lot of data that the administration, administration didn't want people to have access to that data about those questions. And so those data were removed or were altered.

[Tim Harford]

When data goes missing or is altered, it can have very real life consequences. For example, some might see the eradication of the non binary gender category as purely a symbolic move. But we know that teenagers who identify as non binary are more likely to be more vulnerable to certain risks than their peers. That's something we couldn't have known without collecting the data in the past. And without the data now, are we.

[Maggie Levenstein]

Providing the appropriate social supports to them? It's very hard to know without the data that was being collected about the mental health of young people and their gender identity and their risk and their sexual behaviors. When we don't have that information, it's much harder to provide the resources that people need to live full and healthy lives.

[Tim Harford]

The data at risk spans all areas of life and society. Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that when calculating cpi, the Consumer Prices Index, they would stop collecting the data from three cities due to budgetary cuts.

[Maggie Levenstein]

Businesses rely on these and they rely on them to be high quality measures. When we reduce spending and the resources that the BLS has, that we get lower quality measures as a result, businesses are kind of much more likely to be flying blind.

[Tim Harford]

Many websites also now have government mandated disclaimers on their homepage, throwing doubt on the data. For example, if you go on the cdc, the center for Disease Control and Prevention's homepage for national HIV surveillance systems, you're met with this.

[Government Disclaimer Voice]

Per a court order, HHS is required to restore this website as of 11:59pm Eastern Time, February 11, 2025. Any information on this page promoting gender ideology is Extremely inaccurate and disconnected from the immutable biological reality that there are two sexes, male and female, the fate.

[Tim Harford]

Of other data sets is uncertain. For example, a decades old dataset that monitors birth outcomes in the us, prams.

[John Cubali]

Prams, or the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, is kind of the gold standard for assessing and monitoring maternal and child health in the us. That's an area where the US has consistently lagged behind other high income countries.

[Tim Harford]

That's John Cubali, a research assistant professor at the University of Michigan who specialises in epidemiology. The Department of Health and Human Services states that the purpose of PRAMS is to reduce infant morbidity and mortality by influencing programmes and policies aimed at reducing health problems among mothers and infants. As an infant is around three times more likely to die in the US than in Finland, Japan or Sweden, this seems like a pretty important data set.

[John Cubali]

It's something that is used both by policymakers and by researchers really to understand how are different aspects of maternal and child health changing over time and what populations are most impacted. That's really important information that you need to have if you're going to be considering how to design interventions to address some of those challenges.

[Tim Harford]

This data is collected by local states and governments and then sent to the CDC to be merged and for population weighting to be added. To access the data, researchers needed to apply for access and sign a declaration stating they wouldn't share the data.

[John Cubali]

I started getting contacted by researchers and essentially these requests were just going unanswered. I submitted multiple requests myself. I reached out to that office directly. You know, I never heard any response. And so essentially any of the data from the last 10 years, so 2016 or later, that's not publicly available. And so if you did not have access to that already, you're kind of out of luck at this point.

[Tim Harford]

Do we know whether they're still collecting the data?

[John Cubali]

Yeah, there is some uncertainty around that. There was an announcement, I believe, in early to mid February saying, oh, we're going to discontinue this data collection. And there was a massive backlash and outcry and there was kind of a clarification, oh, no, we're not going to discontinue this, but we're going to kind of push it back until April 2025 and then we'll start it up again. But April 1, the entire prams office was essentially fired. And so now it's really uncertain what this means for this data collection moving forward.

[Tim Harford]

Since February, there's been a scramble to try and safeguard as much data as possible. Both Maggie and John are involved in this process, but snapshots of old web pages do not a full data set make.

[Maggie Levenstein]

So there's some data that you can't get to at all. There's some data that we don't know is gone yet. There's also data that's been preserved, but we don't know for sure that it hasn't been changed. And you also don't have the context, what we call metadata, the description of the data, all the things that allow you to make inference from the data.

[Tim Harford]

The case remains open. Thanks to Maggie Levenstein and John Cubali. That is all we have time for this week, but if you have any questions or comments, please email in to more or lessbc.co.uk until next week. Goodbye.

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