Mailbox edition

Summary

More or Less – Mailbox Edition (March 15, 2014)

Host: Ruth Alexander | Podcast: BBC Radio 4 – More or Less
Theme: Responding to Listener Queries about Statistics

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Episode Overview

In this special “Mailbox Edition” of More or Less, host Ruth Alexander is joined by team members Charlotte and Ian to tackle a series of listener questions on commonly circulated statistics. The team investigates claims about the population of the Maasai people, basic science knowledge in different populations, literacy rates in Tasmania, and the much-publicized wealth gap between the world’s richest and poorest. The tone is friendly, skeptical, and focused on helping listeners discern fact from fiction.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

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1. How many Maasai people are there?

(00:46–03:09)

• Listener Query: Hans Johnson from Boston asks about the oft-cited number of 1 million Maasai and whether it’s accurate.
• Research & Findings:
  • The number “1 million” is widespread but has no clear evidence. As Charlotte explains, “I spoke to Ernestina Coast ... and she traced the number back to a report from 1998, but it didn't give any evidence for where that number comes from.” [01:29]
  • Kenya’s 2009 census reports approximately 840,000 Maasai; Tanzania doesn’t collect ethnicity data.
  • Cultural practices mean some Maasai may avoid giving accurate numbers or participating in census counts.
    • Memorable moment: “[Maasai] traditionally ... often either refuse to participate in census taking or give the wrong information ... it’s a tradition that goes back for generations.” — Kakuta, Maasai Association [02:37]
• Conclusion: The “million” figure is a rough estimate; the actual number is uncertain.

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2. Do a quarter of Americans and a third of Europeans not know the Earth goes round the sun?

(03:09–05:18)

• Listener Query: Paul (from Dubai) cites a Time magazine claim about scientific knowledge gaps.
• Research & Findings:
  • Ian reports the statistic originates from the US National Science Foundation, which has asked this since 1988.
  • The specific question: “Does the Earth go around the sun or does the sun go around the Earth?” Only 74% of Americans got it right; Europeans did slightly worse (66% per a 2005 EU study).
    • Tom W. Smith, University of Chicago: “Most of these questions involve having learned a scientific fact and remembering it. But ... casual non-scientific observation ... might well lead them to ... believe that the sun is revolving around the earth.” [04:31]
  • The phenomenon is global; similar results observed in surveys in India and Malaysia.
• Conclusion: The figures are accurate; many people globally lack this basic scientific knowledge, partly due to misleading everyday perceptions.

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3. Are half of Tasmanians ‘illiterate and innumerate’?

(05:18–06:55)

• Listener Query: Alex Walker from Melbourne questions an Australian TV report claiming 50% of Tasmanians over 15 are illiterate and innumerate.
• Research & Findings:
  • The data traces to a 2012 international survey (OECD), ranking skills within 5 levels.
  • Dr. Bruce Caldwell (Australian Bureau of Statistics): “No, it is not [fair to say that half are illiterate or enumerate].”
  • Even the lowest proficiency group (Level 1) can generally “read a newspaper.”
    • William Thorne, OECD: “I don't really think that's a fair statement.” [06:21]
  • The true point: Half of Tasmanians fall below the skill level thought necessary for fully coping in a modern economy, but this does not mean they can't read or write at all.
  • Tasmania's skill levels are only slightly below the Australian average.
• Conclusion: The statistic is misleading. Most Tasmanians can read and perform basic numeracy, though many fall short of higher skill levels.

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4. Do the 85 richest people own as much as half the world?

(06:55–08:42)

• Listener Query: Rosie Duncan (UK) asks whether “the 85 richest people have the same wealth as the poorest half of the world,” a viral Oxfam claim.
• Research & Findings:
  • The claim comes from an Oxfam report using the Global Wealth Report (Credit Suisse) and the Forbes billionaires list.
  • Ricardo Fuentes Nieba, Oxfam: The calculation is made by adding up the net worth of the bottom half of the world (about $1.7 trillion USD), then comparing this to the cumulative wealth of the richest 85 people.
    • “So the 85th billionaire in the world got moved to that threshold of $1.7 trillion.” — Ricardo [08:15]
  • The numbers are not perfect (“everyone acknowledges it has shortcomings, but it’s as good as it gets” — Ricardo [08:32]), but the rough calculation is supported.
  • Host Ruth Alexander: “As far as rough calculations go, this seems fair enough to us.” [08:42]
• Conclusion: The statistic is broadly accurate, although reliant on imperfect data and definitions.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Census Data and Culture:
  • “Traditionally, a family will not tell you how many children they have, and they often either refuse to participate in census taking or give the wrong information.” — Kakuta, Maasai Association (02:37)
• On Science Literacy:
  • “Most of these questions involve having learned a scientific fact and remembering it. But ... casual non-scientific observation ... might well lead them to ... assume the sun is revolving around the earth.” — Tom W Smith, University of Chicago (04:31)
• On Tasmanian Literacy:
  • “I don't really think that's a fair statement.” — William Thorne, OECD (06:21)
• On the Wealth Statistic:
  • “So the 85th billionaire in the world got moved to that threshold of $1.7 trillion.” — Ricardo Fuentes Nieba, Oxfam (08:15)
  • “Everyone acknowledges that it has shortcomings, but it’s as good as it gets.” — Ricardo (08:32)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Start: Listener queries introduced – (00:29)
• Maasai population question – (00:46–03:09)
• Science knowledge: Earth and Sun – (03:09–05:18)
• Tasmanian literacy/numeracy statistic – (05:18–06:55)
• Wealth gap: 85 richest vs. half the world – (06:55–08:42)

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Final Note

True to More or Less’s reputation, the team applies skepticism and expertise, consulting subject matter experts and exposing the nuances behind popular statistics. The episode successfully demystifies several viral claims while highlighting just how tricky it can be to measure, communicate, and understand numbers in the real world.

Transcript

[A]

This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[B]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[C]

hello, this is the investigations team at More or Less. Please leave your statistical query after the tone and we'll investigate.

[A]

Hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander. This week we thought we'd dedicate the program to answering as many listener queries as we can. And I've got two of our top sleuths in the studio to help answer your questions, Charlotte and Ian.

[B]

Hi, Ruth.

[D]

Hello.

[A]

Let's get to our first query then, which came to us through Twitter using BBCMoreOrless. It's from an American anthropologist who's been to record the music of the Maasai tribe in Kenya.

[E]

Dear More or less My name is Hans Johnson and I'm from Boston, Massachusetts. Throughout my studies, I've come across the figure of 1 million being the estimated population of the Maasai. And I'm just wondering how accurate that figure is and if it's even current.

[A]

Well, the Maasai are a traditionally nomadic group who live in the south of Kenya and the north of Tanzania. Charlotte, you've been looking into Hans Question?

[F]

Yeah. The figure, the figure of 1 million Maasai is reported all over the place. I spoke to Ernestina coast, an associate professor of population studies at the London School of Economics, and she traced the number back to a report from 1998, but it didn't give any evidence for where that number comes from.

[A]

OK, so the figures are about 15 years old then. Do we have any official figures we can look at?

[F]

Yes, there were around 840,000 people who identified themselves as Maasai in Kenya's census of 2009. Unfortunately, in Tanzania, the census doesn't ask for ethnic group or tribe, so we don't have a figure for them.

[C]

Ernestine explains why in Tanzania, a very different approach was taken. That said, first and foremost, we are Tanzanian and our tribal affiliation or our ethnic group is much less important. So they stopped collecting any ethnicity data.

[F]

Some even doubt the Kenya number. I spoke to Kakuta, founder of the Maasai Association. He says because of a Maasai tradition of not telling people how many children a family has, not all Maasai will be counted in the census.

[G]

Traditionally, a family will not tell you how many children they have, and they often either refuse to participate in census taking or give the wrong information to the census takers. It's a tradition that goes back for generations and generations.

[A]

So Hans, we can't trust the Kenyan census figure 100% and we don't have a figure for Tanzania at all. One million might not be far off, but we just can't know for sure.

[G]

My name's Paul and I'm calling from Dubai. I read in Time magazine that a quarter of Americans and a third of Europeans are unaware that the Earth goes round the sun. So they know something the rest of us don't.

[A]

Well, Paul, thank you. And I do share your surprise that so many people apparently don't know that the Earth goes round the sun. Ian, you've been looking into this statistic and where it comes from. Is it based on some dodgy poll?

[H]

Not at all. It actually comes from the National Science Federation, which is a US government agency which has been asking this question as part of its survey for public attitudes to science since 1988. It asks a variety of science general knowledge questions such as? Well, actually, Ruth, why don't you have a go at this one?

[A]

Go on then.

[H]

The centre of the earth is very hot. True or false? And take your time.

[C]

True.

[F]

Correct.

[H]

But don't feel too smug, Ruth, because that was the question that most people got right at 86%. Now the wording of the question we're

[D]

talking about is does the Earth go around the sun or does the sun go around the Earth?

[H]

That's Tom W Smith from the University of Chicago which carried out this research.

[A]

Do we have any idea why so many people get this question wrong?

[H]

Well, Tom Smith does have a theory.

[D]

Most of these questions involve having learned a scientific fact and remembering it. But if someone goes outside and observes the fact that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west each day, that casual non scientific observation might well lead them to taking the belief that the sun is revolving around the earth.

[A]

Alice, Nepal also mentions Europeans and the fact they do even worse.

[H]

Indeed. And the most recent research on this appears to be a European Union survey in 2005 which shows only two thirds getting it right. And other surveys done over the past few years show that people in India and Malaysia don't do much better.

[A]

The next question comes from Alex Walker in Melbourne who heard this on Australian tv.

[F]

Tasmanian government figures show half of all Tasmanians over the age of 15 are innumerate and illiterate. They cannot read and comprehend a newspaper.

[E]

I find this hard to believe as Australia is generally said to have very high literacy levels.

[A]

Ok, well, Tasmania is the Large island off the south coast of Australia. But Charlotte, is it true that 50% of the adults there can't read or write?

[F]

The data comes from a survey from 2012 looking at the literacy and numeracy skills of 15 to 64 year olds. I asked Dr. Bruce Caldwell from the Australian Bureau of Statistics if it was fair to say half of Tasmanians are enumerate and illiterate. And he said, no, it is not. The research was actually part of a larger international survey run by the oecd. So I asked its senior analyst, William Thorne, if it was fair to say that half of Tasmanians cannot read or write properly.

[G]

He I don't really think that's a fair statement.

[F]

The survey ranked participants in five levels of competency, one being the lowest, five the highest. Some have argued that ideally, people should be at level three to be able to cope in a modern economy. On that basis, half of Tasmanians did not reach that level. But according to Bruce and William, that doesn't mean you're illiterate. Even people at level one can read a newspaper. Not just that, Tasmania's results are slightly worse than the Australian average, but Dr. Caldwell says they're comparable with other parts of the country.

[A]

Thanks, Charlotte. Now the 85 richest people own the equivalent wealth of half of the world's population. Now, we've had so many queries about this next statistic, it's actually sent our inbox into overdrive. This one is from Rosie Duncan in the uk.

[C]

My son sent me the web link which stated that the 85 richest people are as wealthy as the poorest half of the world. And this shocked me, thinking this needs investigating. Is it really true?

[A]

This figure comes from a report by an aid charity, Oxfam. It's had lots of attention.

[I]

My name is Ricardo Fuentes Nieba and I am the head of research at Oxfam Great Britain.

[A]

This is one of the lead authors. Ricardo looked at data from the Global Wealth Report 2013, which is produced by the bank Credit Suisse, and it calculates how wealth is distributed across the world. Ricardo tottered up the total wealth that was attributed to the poorer half of the world's population, who worked out at less than 1% of the world's wealth. And this is because these people don't own houses, but just personal possessions. And their wealth works out at about US$1.7 trillion.

[I]

And then I just went to the Forbes list.

[A]

The Forbes list ranks the world's richest people.

[G]

1.

[H]

Bill Gates 2 Carlos Slimli.

[I]

So I went from richest to less rich until I hit 1.7 trillion. So the 85th billionaire in the world got moved to that threshold of 1.7 trillion.

[A]

Ricardo says the Credit Suisse report was written by respected economists, and he spoke to other experts in the field about the data.

[I]

We acknowledge, everyone acknowledges that it has shortcomings, but it's as good as it gets.

[H]

18 Jeff Bezos 19 Sergey Brin 20

[A]

now although on More or Less, we often investigate numbers and find there's something wrong with them, in this case, as far as rough calculations go, this seems fair enough to us.

[H]

40 Mikation Barney Alicia Usmanoff if there

[A]

are any numbers you'd like us to investigate or explain, do please email us. Our address is more or lessbc.co.uk and you can tweet us with the hashtag bbcmoreless. You can also sign up for a free download of this program at our website bbcworldservice.com More or less There are

[B]

dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sports. For details of them all, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.