Podcast Summary: BBC Radio 4 – More or Less: "Numbers of the Year 2026"

Host: Tim Harford
Air Date: January 3, 2026

Overview

In this New Year’s special episode, Tim Harford invites expert guests to share and explain their predictions for important numbers that will shape 2026. From aviation milestones and world population trends to epic sporting events and cosmic discoveries, the show explores how numbers reveal seismic shifts in travel, demographics, sport, and astronomy. Through sharp analysis and a light conversational tone, listeners gain a clearer understanding of what might count most in the coming year.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. 100 Million: Dubai Airport's Record-Breaking Passenger Numbers

Guest: Simon Calder, Travel Correspondent, The Independent

• Dubai International Airport is projected to hit 100 million international passengers in 2026—a world first for any airport.
• This milestone underscores the aviation industry's shift from Western to Middle Eastern and Asian hubs.
• “In the 20th century, it was pretty much America and Europe who ran the show for aviation. But now the global super connectors are based in the Gulf.” (Simon Calder, 02:16)
• The numbers are precise because all passengers are carefully tracked.
• 2025 numbers are expected to be just over 96 million, a 5% increase on the previous year. Growth trends support the 100 million prediction, barring major disruptions like pandemics.
• Memorable Moment: Simon wishes listeners “many happy new numbers to everybody in 2026.” (03:37)

Timestamps:

• [01:27] Simon’s introduction
• [01:59] Context for Dubai’s rise as an aviation hub
• [02:56] Passenger number projections and explanation

2. 2082: The Projected Peak of Global Population

Guest: Hannah Ritchie

• Hannah predicts the United Nations will update the global population peak forecast to 2082 in its 2026 publication.
• UN predictions have consistently brought the population peak date forward:
  • 2019 forecast: after 2100
  • 2022: 2086
  • 2024: 2084
• The main drivers of uncertainty are variable fertility rates, especially in Sub Saharan Africa. Recent trends put actual fertility rates closer to the UN’s "low scenario" due to faster-than-expected drops.
• “Fertility rates have been falling faster than they might have expected.” (Hannah Ritchie, 05:27)
• Population projections rely on patchy birth and death data in some countries, magnifying uncertainty.

Timestamps:

• [03:43] Hannah’s introductory prediction
• [04:17] Evolution of UN forecasts
• [05:27] Fertility rate trends and uncertainty

3. 48: An Expanded FIFA Men’s World Cup

Guest: Bill Edgar, Football Writer, The Times

• The 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup will feature 48 teams, up from 32 in 2022 and just 16 in 1978.
• This expanded tournament will be hosted across the USA, Canada, and Mexico.
• “The combined area of the three host nations is nearly 1,900 times greater than that of Qatar.” (Bill Edgar, 06:52)
• Largest distance between stadiums: Vancouver to Miami—2,791 miles (about 4,500 km), the biggest gap in World Cup history.
• The expanded geography means more travel for players and fans, injecting logistical challenges and new dynamics.

Timestamps:

• [06:06] Bill’s introduction and prediction
• [06:52] Travel distances and context

4. 9: The (Hoped-For) Discovery of Planet Nine

Guest: Catherine Haymans, Professor & Astronomer Royal for Scotland

• Catherine’s number is 9—a nod to the anticipated discovery of the mysterious Planet Nine by the Vera Rubin Observatory in 2026.
• Traditionally, Pluto was considered the ninth planet, but since its 2006 reclassification as a dwarf planet, astronomers have hunted for a true ninth planet.
• Planet Nine is hypothesized to be 5–10 times the mass of Earth and at least 300 times further from the Sun.
• The Vera Rubin Observatory’s global collaboration will generate huge volumes of data, “building the deepest, widest image of the universe that’s ever been taken.” (Catherine Haymans, 09:01)
• The project aims to discover 20 billion new galaxies and about 4 million new Solar System objects over ten years.
• “If Planet Nine exists, it will be one of those newly discovered objects.” (Catherine Haymans, 09:34)

Timestamps:

• [07:31] Catherine’s introduction
• [07:55] History of planet classification and Planet Nine hypothesis
• [09:01] Vera Rubin Observatory’s mission

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “In the 20th century, it was pretty much America and Europe who ran the show for aviation. But now the global super connectors are based in the Gulf…”
  —Simon Calder (02:16)
• “Fertility rates have been falling faster than they might have expected... another key uncertainty is around the fall in fertility rates across Sub Saharan Africa.”
  —Hannah Ritchie (05:27)
• “The combined area of the three host nations is nearly 1,900 times greater than that of Qatar. So the greatest distance between any two stadiums at the 2026 World cup is 2,791 miles…”
  —Bill Edgar (06:52)
• “We are taking a movie of the night sky. We're looking at everything that goes whiz flash bang… building the deepest, widest image of the universe that's ever been taken.”
  —Catherine Haymans (09:01)

Episode Flow

1. [01:10] Host Tim Harford introduces the theme: numbers to watch in 2026.
2. [01:27] Simon Calder discusses Dubai’s aviation milestone (100 million passengers).
3. [03:43] Hannah Ritchie looks ahead to updated UN population peak forecasts (2082).
4. [06:06] Bill Edgar predicts World Cup expansion (48 teams, epic travel distances).
5. [07:31] Catherine Haymans anticipates the possible discovery of Planet Nine.
6. [09:40] Tim wraps up and invites listener submissions for future episodes.

Tone and Language

The episode is conversational, witty, and packed with illuminating statistics. Guests combine expertise with accessible explanations, and Tim Harford navigates the predictions with humor and curiosity.

This summary gives you the essential forecasts and the personality of each expert’s segment—perfect for catching up on the stories behind 2026’s most fascinating numbers.