Sexual violence statistics in Asia

Summary

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More or Less – Episode Summary

Episode: Sexual violence statistics in Asia
Host: Tim Harford (BBC Radio 4)
First Broadcast: September 16, 2013

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Overview

This episode of More or Less critically examines the statistics behind alarming headlines about sexual violence in Asia and challenges popular narratives on Africa’s drinking habits. The show investigates how data is collected, interpreted, and sometimes misused in news coverage and political debate. Host Tim Harford, along with Ruth Alexander and guests, scrutinizes a widely cited UN-backed study about rape in the Asia Pacific, discusses the pitfalls of overgeneralization, and draws connections to similar misinterpretations in stories about alcohol consumption in Africa.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Interrogating the "1 in 4 Men in Asia Pacific Has Raped" Headline

• Listener Concern:
  • Hans, a survey researcher from Germany, raised doubts about the credibility of a headline claiming "Every fourth man in Asia Pacific region has raped" (00:49).
    • Hans: “I was a bit concerned by the headline... it is a super sensitive issue and one should do as much as possible to reduce violence against women. And making sure that the public claims are plausible is a good first step in that direction.” (00:53)
• Origin of the Statistic:
  • The headline is derived from a UN study published in The Lancet, which surveyed around 10,000 men in selected urban and rural areas across six countries: Bangladesh, China, Cambodia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Sri Lanka (01:14).
  • Alexander points out that half the respondents were from just two countries (Bangladesh, Indonesia), and the samples were not nationally representative (01:14).
  • Tim Harford: “So conclusions can't be drawn about men in the whole of each country, never mind the whole of Asia and the Pacific, contrary to what many news reports around the world would have you believe.” (01:32)

2. Impact of Conflict Zones on Data

• Areas surveyed included places with recent histories of conflict (Bougainville in Papua New Guinea, Jayapura in Indonesia), where reported rates of rape were much higher, thus skewing the overall reported average (01:44).
  • Alexander: “By conducting surveys in those areas, they're pulling up the average.” (01:58)

3. How the Survey Asked About Sexual Violence

• The survey differentiated between rape within and outside of relationships.
  • 12% of respondents admitted to rape outside of relationships; this fell to 6% when conflict areas were excluded (02:05).
  • Rape within relationships reported at 24% (almost a quarter); dropped to 18% without conflict areas (02:05).
  • Tim Harford: “Still, that's nearly one in five men.” (02:38)
• Survey Question Wording:
  • Original question in Bangladesh: Explicitly about forced sex, yielded lower figures.
  • Other countries: Added a question without explicitly mentioning force or violence – “Have you had sexual intercourse with a partner when you knew she didn't want to, but believe she should agree because she was your wife or partner?” (02:40)
• Expert Explanation (Professor Rachel Jukes):
  • Jukes: “If you were to stand up in a British court and say to a judge, ‘I didn't rape her, I made her have sex because I'm her husband, she didn't want it, but that's why I did it,’ you'll get convicted of rape and you'll get sent to jail. In Britain, sex is rape if you don't consent to sex.” (03:21)
  • Alexander: “But is it clear from the question that we're talking about making someone have sex without consent?” (03:45)
  • Jukes: “It's implicit in the question that that's what happened, was that consent wasn't the issue.” (03:50)

4. Summary of Methodological Issues

• Results are not generalizable to all men in Asia Pacific due to:
  • Non-representative sampling.
  • Overrepresentation of conflict areas.
  • Sensitive and possibly ambiguous wording of survey questions.
• Takeaway: Headlines overstated the scope and scale of the findings; careful reading and contextual understanding of statistics are essential.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Hans (Listener):
  “Making sure that the public claims are plausible is a good first step in that direction.” (00:53)
• Tim Harford:
  “Conclusions can't be drawn about men in the whole of each country, never mind the whole of Asia and the Pacific, contrary to what many news reports around the world would have you believe.” (01:32)
• Professor Rachel Jukes:
  “If you were to stand up in a British court and say to a judge, ‘I didn't rape her, I made her have sex because I'm her husband…’ you'll get convicted of rape and you'll get sent to jail.” (03:21)

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[Bonus Segment: Generalizing About Alcohol Consumption in Africa (04:04)]

While focusing on the theme of headline statistics, the latter part of the episode switches to analyze the claim that Africa "has a drinking problem," challenging generalizations with data.

• Kate Wilkinson (Africa Fact Check):
  • "To simply make this broad generalization about the continent doesn't give us much insight..."
  • "If you want to look at how many people in Africa are lifetime abstainers... it's 57.3%. And then if you look at how many people haven't drunk alcohol in the last 12 months, that figure increases to 70.8%" (05:03)
• Tim Harford:
  • "The world average alcohol consumption is 6.13 litres... In Africa, the average is 6.15 litres... Europe, by contrast, consumes 12.18 liters per person per year, almost double the alcohol consumed in Africa." (05:44)
  • "Simply looking at average alcohol consumption in Africa would have put a lie to the idea that Africa is drunk. And then take a second look at the statistics, because while averages are useful, they're not the only statistical fact worth considering.” (07:57)
• Boniface Ndrangu (Kenyan Rehabilitation Center Director):
  • "Majority of the people are going home. They're not going to bars. It's only this section that drinks... The culture is that on really drinking silly. And it's like, fashionable to them..." (07:57)

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Timestamps – Important Segments

• 00:49 – Listener Hans questions the validity of sexual violence headlines
• 01:14 – Ruth Alexander details the UN study’s methodology
• 02:05 – Breakdown of survey findings on rape within/outside relationships
• 03:21 – Professor Rachel Jukes discusses consent and legal definitions
• 04:04 – Transition to topic of alcohol consumption in Africa
• 05:03 – Kate Wilkinson on diversity of drinking habits and abstinence
• 05:44 – Harford contrasts global, African, and European alcohol statistics
• 07:57 – Boniface Ndrangu on Kenyan drinking culture

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Conclusion

The episode expertly unpacks how statistics can be misinterpreted or exaggerated, especially when used in media headlines about sensitive topics like sexual violence or alcoholism. The key message is to always dig deeper into data sources, context, and wording before accepting sweeping generalizations.
Tim Harford’s closing message:
“Simply looking at average alcohol consumption in Africa would have put a lie to the idea that Africa is drunk. And then take a second look at the statistics, because while averages are useful, they're not the only statistical fact worth considering.” (07:57)

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Transcript

[BBC Announcer]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldserveys.com podcasts

[Ruth Alexander]

this is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[Tim Harford]

Hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. We're the programme about the numbers in the news and in life and and I'm Tim Harford. Now, we're always interested in investigating the stories that you suggest to us via our email. More or lessbc.co.uk. this week, loyal listener Hans has been in touch from Germany.

[Hans (Listener from Germany)]

From my own work as a survey researcher, I know that violence against women is a serious problem and needs to be addressed. But I do have to say that I was a bit concerned by the

[Tim Harford]

headline Every fourth man in Asia Pacific region has raped.

[Hans (Listener from Germany)]

I wonder what you make of this. It is a super sensitive issue and one should do as much as possible to reduce violence against women. And making sure that the public claims are plausible is a good first step in that direction.

[Tim Harford]

Well, this headline and many others like it are reporting a UN study published in the Lancet, and perhaps they're simplifying it somewhat. Ruth Alexander has been looking into this for us.

[Ruth Alexander]

The Researchers surveyed about 10,000 men in a handful of urban and rural areas in six Bangladesh, China, Cambodia, Indonesia, Papua New guinea and Sri Lanka. Half the respondents were in just two countries, Bangladesh and Indonesia. And most samples weren't nationally representative.

[Tim Harford]

So conclusions can't be drawn about men in the whole of each country, never mind the whole of Asia and the Pacific, contrary to what many news reports around the world would have you believe. But, Ruth, the numbers are still high for these areas.

[Hans (Listener from Germany)]

Yeah.

[Ruth Alexander]

It's worth noting, though, that two of the areas studied have relatively recently suffered periods of conflict. The island of Bougainville in Papua New guinea and Jayapura in Indonesia. And the numbers reporting rape are much higher there than in the other areas.

[Tim Harford]

So by conducting surveys in those areas, they're pulling up the average. And another interesting detail is what questions the men were asked.

[Ruth Alexander]

The study looked at both rape within relationships and outside of relationships. About 12% of men admitted to rape outside of relationships, although this number falls to 6%. If you take out the areas which have seen conflicts recently. Rape within relationships is where you see the biggest numbers. About 24% of men, almost a quarter, admit what's classed in this study as sex, sexual violence with girlfriends or wives, past and present. This number falls to about 18% if you take out those two former conflict areas.

[Tim Harford]

Still, that's nearly one in five men.

[Ruth Alexander]

Now, let's have a look at what questions the men were asked about their relations with their partners or former partners. There was a question about forced sex and this was asked in Bangladesh, where the survey was started. The figures there are lower than anywhere else. Now, in other countries, a second question was introduced into the survey. And this question doesn't explicitly mention force or violence. It's simply this. Have you had sexual intercourse with a partner when you knew she didn't want to, but believe she should agree because she was your wife or partner? Speaking to the lead technical advisor on the study, Professor Rachel Jukes from South Africa, I asked her about this second question.

[Professor Rachel Jukes]

The question is basically, did you make your wife have sex when she didn't want to because you thought she should do so? If you were to stand up in a British court and say to a judge, I didn't rape her, I made her have sex because I'm her husband, she didn't want it, but that's why I did it, you'll get convicted of rape and you'll get sent to jail. In Britain, sex is rape if you don't consent to sex.

[Ruth Alexander]

But is it clear from the question that we're talking about making someone have sex without consent?

[Professor Rachel Jukes]

It's implicit in the question that that's what happened, was that consent wasn't the issue.

[Tim Harford]

Rachel Dukes talking to Ruth Alexander. Now, we haven't heard much from Nairobi recently and this man reckons the news is bad.

[Boniface Ndrangu]

There's an explosion of the problem. It is catastrophic. Alcohol has become probably the only source of relief out of work or relief out of extreme poverty or joblessness. It has become a really huge problem. Very huge problem.

[Tim Harford]

That's Bonifas Ndrangu. He used to be an alcoholic and now he runs two rehabilitation centers in Kenya. But why are we talking to Boniface? Well, Kenya was at the centre of an article in Time magazine with the alarming headline, Africa's Drinking Problem.

[Ruth Alexander]

Alcoholism on the Rise as Beverage Multinational Circle.

[Tim Harford]

The piece described the country as consuming ever more alcohol and stated that Africa has a drinking problem. But is it correct to make such a general statement about a continent of 55 countries? Well, we're not the only ones who are wondering. Kate Wilkinson is a researcher at the website Africa Fact Check, and she investigated the claims made by the Time article.

[Kate Wilkinson]

What we discovered was that out of Africa's 55 countries, they have varied drinking habits. There are different attitudes towards alcohol, different religious beliefs about consuming alcohol. And to simply make this broad Generalization about the continent doesn't give us much insight. It doesn't let us know where people are drinking, how many people abstain from alcohol altogether. Many African countries have large Muslim populations. If you want to look at how many people in Africa are lifetime abstainers, that being that they don't drink alcohol at all and never have, it's 57.3%. And then if you look at how many people haven't drunk alcohol in the last 12 months, that figure increases to 70.8%.

[Tim Harford]

Part of the difficulty here is that Time magazine wanted human stories of alcohol abuse. They weren't so interested in leafing through the statistics. Well, the best data we can find comes from the World Health Organization, and it makes for interesting reading. The world average alcohol consumption is 6.13 litres of pure alcohol per person over the age of 15 each year. Now, in Africa, the average is 6.15 litres. That's just a 20 millilitre difference, a mere double measure of whiskey extra over the course of a whole year. And driving up the average for Africa. The WHO excluded seven African countries with a large Muslim population where alcohol is either restricted or banned. Now, Europe, by contrast, consumes 12.18 liters per person per year, almost double the alcohol consumed in Africa. So why is it Africa which allegedly has the drinking problem? Well, perhaps Kenya is an outlier, but no. According to the WHO, Kenya's alcohol consumption per person is 118th out of 89 countries. Moldova is at the top, followed by the Czech Republic and the UK is up at number 17. But there's a third way to look at this story. Through the data on binge drinking, or heavy episodic drinking, to use the formal term. You're a binge drinker if you consume 60 grams or more of pure alcohol more than once a week. So that's about three pints of strong beer. Among African drinkers who, remember, are in a minority. Africa has the highest proportion of heavy episodic drinkers to return to Kenya, while 85% of Kenyans haven't had a drink in the past year. Compare that with 14.4% in the UK. The ones who do drink are drinking a lot, almost twice as much per person as in the uk. The lesson for Time magazine and for us, always take a look at the statistics. Simply looking at average alcohol consumption in Africa would have put a lie to the idea that Africa is drunk. And then take a second look at the statistics, because while averages are useful, they're not the only statistical fact worth considering.

[Boniface Ndrangu]

Bonifas Ndrangu There is a good percentage of hardcore drinkers. I run rehabilitation centers, but it's because I also had the problem in the past. I can reflect back quickly and think that, well, there are quite a number of us who are drinking, but we thought that everyone drinks. The moment you put down a drink, you start realizing actually majority of the people don't. Either they can't afford it, or they just don't like it, or they have other interests. There are quite a number of churches. If you go to Kenya on a Saturday night, you'll find so many churches are open for prayers. If you look at the people going home during the rush hour, majority of those people are going home. They're not going to bars. It's only this section that drinks, maybe 10 to 15 bars and drink. The culture is that on really drinking silly. And it's like, fashionable to them. Getting drunk is a really cool thing.

[Tim Harford]

Boniface Ndrangu Executive Director of the Eden House foundation and that's all we have time for this week. If you have a question you'd like us to investigate, please get in touch via our email. More or less at BBC.co.uk. the programme is available to download from our website, bbcworldservice.com more or less until next week. Goodbye.

[BBC Announcer]

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